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Old 16th Mar 2020, 01:10
  #1941 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by beautiful_butterfly
As odd as it sounds, PIA may be necessary to ensure our contract is complied with... I know it sounds silly, but it might be required.
Unfortunately that leads to a path where they have the ability to open up the Agreement and change the very things you want them to comply with.
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Old 16th Mar 2020, 01:11
  #1942 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by crosscutter

this is serious times...I’m not sure pilot redundancies solves the immediate problem. Fortunately superior engagement will see people jumping out of their skins to help.
The problem with redundancy is those at the bottom are the first to go, yet they aren’t the ones who are in surplus (ie the 380 is not needed but it’s pilots are the most senior).

By the time you pay them their redundancy you'll probably need to re-employ them.

RIN will just see massive amounts of people moved around and in 12 months they’ll probably need to be placed back in their original positions. Massive amounts of training for no benefit. Plus how can any line training occur if barely any international flying is being conducted?

The most effective solution would be requesting/“requiring” LWOP for affected fleets for several months until the crisis is over, and ensuring that those on LWOP maintain their qualifications so minimal retraining is required once the demand pick ups, as it may pick up quick in a “V” shaped recovery.

Will they have to offer a future incentive to get that guarantee now? Who knows. But pilots, at all airlines to be frank, had better realise that that ball game is totally different. It may be a case of short term pain (6months LWOP) for long term gain (having a job in 12 months)
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Old 16th Mar 2020, 06:32
  #1943 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Telfer86
Do you really think last in first out would apply in this circumstance ?

I don't know what your various contract & employment agreements say but if the reason is financial survival of the company (which is clearly the case)
, would QF just apply to a court/FWA to allow redundancies by fleet. As clearly creating a massive training wave would just achieve the opposite of what is the objective(decrease cost immediately) is

& no disrespect to anyone but isn't the success record of some QF LHS WB folk going back to SH (due age) been less than stellar ?

Is there any case law on this ?

Is this exactly the same discussion that VA are having re; the lack of flying the A330s are currently doing ?

Good luck to all , challenging times with Air NZ now releases 30% of staff & they are majority Govt owned (?)
Correct, I imagine that’s exactly what would play out. I seem to remember this exact discussion about a decade ago when we were last considering possible redundancies. Cant uphold the EBA redundancy provisions if it means the end of the airline.



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Old 16th Mar 2020, 06:46
  #1944 (permalink)  
 
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You’re not thinking things through..

If no mitigating drug found quickly...

Redundancy payouts for 10-20-30 year pilots....reemployment rights. A massive problem for the company.

a more likely scenario is recent hires are told to take a break...no 787 s/o and recent s/o on the other LH fleets the same. what flying there is will be covered by fo/capt. Jetconnect to close...covered by Mainline. Sry. Jmho

good luck to not only Qf...but also virgin, anz. It’s gonna be a hell of a ride that no one wants to take.
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Old 16th Mar 2020, 08:20
  #1945 (permalink)  
 
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Whether Qantas has the free cash to cover this is the question.
Wouldnt the annual report answer that question?
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Old 16th Mar 2020, 08:54
  #1946 (permalink)  
 
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From another source and 3rd hand at that, Air China have been contacting expat contractors sent home in January asking them to return immediately with big re-hire bonuses on the table. What will become of Alan’s stalking horse?
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Old 16th Mar 2020, 09:07
  #1947 (permalink)  
 
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The amount of time QF could lumber along is not really answered in the annual report as there are too many variables, like how many staff costs will they slash, the last I heard they had around 2 billion in cash. No changes they might last 3-5 months, with massive slash backs and forced LWOP and sackings of casual workers...hmmm maybe a year if they were lucky?

I have first hand news just this morning from a mate who was a contract pilot in China asking to return with a return bonus as well, so I think it’s not a rumour.
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Old 16th Mar 2020, 10:50
  #1948 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by StudentInDebt
From another source and 3rd hand at that, Air China have been contacting expat contractors sent home in January asking them to return immediately with big re-hire bonuses on the table. What will become of Alan’s stalking horse?
right up until the other 99.99% of chinas population start getting affected in the major cities of Shanghai and Beijing...
China (and anyone who believes them) are absolutely kidding themselves if they believe achina has peaked and going to ramp back up for good..
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Old 16th Mar 2020, 10:55
  #1949 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by TimmyTee
right up until the other 99.99% of chinas population start getting affected in the major cities of Shanghai and Beijing...
China (and anyone who believes them) are absolutely kidding themselves if they believe achina has peaked and going to ramp back up for good..
I wonder if they’ve thought of that before beginning to ramp up operations. Remind me again which Chinese cities form Air China’s main bases?
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Old 16th Mar 2020, 11:22
  #1950 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Angle of Attack
The amount of time QF could lumber along is not really answered in the annual report as there are too many variables, like how many staff costs will they slash, the last I heard they had around 2 billion in cash. No changes they might last 3-5 months, with massive slash backs and forced LWOP and sackings of casual workers...hmmm maybe a year if they were lucky?

I have first hand news just this morning from a mate who was a contract pilot in China asking to return with a return bonus as well, so I think it’s not a rumour.
Preserving that cash will be important though. It’s a big part of why the airline is valued. They’d rather keep it up their sleeve than pay hundreds of LH pilots LSL out of it for the next 6 months. LWOP will be their goal. Maybe even a bonus or other incentive when times turn around for those who take it now.

And more tangible evidence that China’s lockdown worked.

Last edited by dr dre; 16th Mar 2020 at 11:33.
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Old 16th Mar 2020, 12:01
  #1951 (permalink)  
 
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dre dre ,
agreed LWOP with some sort of return bonus makes sense.....but knowing this mob they will apply to FWA and force LWOP with no obligations and forfeit redundancy payments.....if they can get away with it.
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Old 16th Mar 2020, 12:09
  #1952 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by maggotdriver
Without prejudice, just for hypothetical..

“In breaking news today, the QANTAS share price dropped below $1:50 for the first time in years, wiping millions off the share price. The S and P downgrade followed the departure of the CEO international after the ongoing feud between QANTAS and the AIPA in reaching an agreement with its future ULH operations. The head of AIPA stated, “we still believe we should fly the aircraft on the 787 contract with an added percentage, unfortunately, it was QANTAS who played the outsource card. We have done and will continue to do everything in our power to help our customers get to their destination on time and on schedule. They cannot ground the fleet whilst we are delivering the usual product, albeit a little more expensively. The increase in cost is only due to the existential threat QANTAS imposed on its workforce who feel they own part of the goodwill of the brand.”

It was noted by local share broker and aviation EXPERT Jeffro Thomarse, that there are no share buy backs in a tumbling market, the covid-19 virus is still causing havoc and the recession that Australia has had for the first time in 26 years has lead to increasing pressure on the board to come to a deal with its remaining pilots. When asked for comment QANTAS refused. We await further on the update from the latest talks with Jetstar, over to you Jenny.”
Have you got it yet? Night credits f.ck me, I'm hoping not too many around me die. THIS IS REAL!
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Old 16th Mar 2020, 12:23
  #1953 (permalink)  
 
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The big problem is that it's easy to bring in a travel ban but who decides to lift it? I can see some politicians saying we have to wait until there are NO cases in country A (or B or c...) for a month - and each country will make different choices. It could be 8-9 months before we see any serious resumption of air travel. Right now the industry is closing down rapidly - I'd expect EVERY airline to go into the local equivalent of Chapter 11.

In that case contracts and legal protections are pretty useless - you CAN sue a dead dog but it's not going to get us anywhere

I'd suggest we accept there will be mass lay-offs, suspensions etc and it may be a couple of years before everyone is back into work - if we're lucky . A reasonable comparison is the Oil & Gas Industry - when it all went south in 2013/14 they faced 5 years of cutbacks - hundreds of thousands laid off and many had to find other work somewhere/anywhere
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Old 16th Mar 2020, 12:36
  #1954 (permalink)  
 
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80% reduction in QF group flying now being reported in financial circles. 20-23000 staff layoffs, Widebody basically shut down for 6 months.
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Old 16th Mar 2020, 12:59
  #1955 (permalink)  
 
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"Maybe even a bonus or other incentive when times turn around for those who take it now"

How we all laughed.... man, people will be taking ANY salary to stay employed for the next 2-3 years................. the whole industry is screwed - I've just traveled through LHR, LAX, SIN & AKL int he last week and there is hardly traffic other than repatriation traffic - in a couple of weeks these places will be totally empty ​​​​​​​
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Old 16th Mar 2020, 14:20
  #1956 (permalink)  
 
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We are looking at 80% of crew laid off let’s not sugar coat it, I’m easily prepared but others may not be.Support your financially stressed friends.
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Old 16th Mar 2020, 19:22
  #1957 (permalink)  
 
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My guess is the airline industry will all but collapse over the next 6 months followed by a slow, mainly nationalised rebuild of the strongest and largest carriers to a size somewhat smaller than before.

There will be scant money around the globe to fund a return to the mostly debt based consumption levels us westerners are used to.

Interesting times.
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Old 17th Mar 2020, 01:14
  #1958 (permalink)  
 
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Expect wholesale closure of companies and small business especially in tourist areas. This will make the recession of 1989 onwards look like child's play.

If you want the bad news this is it:

The Dow Jones Index peaked at 381 in September 1929. On 24/10/29 the Dow dropped 12.6%. (The Dow dropped 12.93% last night) The Dow continued to fall for almost 3 years before bottoming out at 41 points. There could be a dead cat bounce on the Dow tonight after the Federal Reserve put another $50B liquidity into the market. The next major support level on the Dow is 20,764 points. If this level fails the next level is 15,335 points or approx. half of the all time high.

Boeing fell 23.85% last night to USD129.61. During the past month they have fallen 62.19%. Concerns are now held for the future of Boeing due to the B737 MAX liabilities and the new need to rewire the aircraft. Lending covenants are being breached. The US Government will have to come to the aid of Boeing due to the national military interest even though they are broke.
.
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Old 17th Mar 2020, 02:20
  #1959 (permalink)  
 
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The US Government is skint and the US banking sector is probably insolvent!
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Old 17th Mar 2020, 02:36
  #1960 (permalink)  
 
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However, the US still gets to print money and hand it to the rest of the world in return for real world goods and services.

“We can guarantee cash benefits as far out and at whatever size you like, but we cannot guarantee their purchasing power.”
-- Alan Greenspan, appearing before the Senate Banking Committee on February 15, 2005, in response to Democratic Senator Jack Reed of Rhode Island on the topic of funding Social Security.

Translation, we can print print print and repay the debt in full, however, you may not be able to purchase anything with it. The inflationary aspect of this can be used to counterbalance the incredible debt deflation we are likely to witness shortly.

Until global trade is denominated in another currency unit they can bail out their industry. The rest of the world, not so much unless they can create US dollar credits.
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