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Old 10th Oct 2019, 06:33
  #321 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Crash8
My guess is they've committed to either more 78's or the Sunrise frames and they know any of this leverage will be lost. So let's create a sense of urgency to get what we want. Those pesky pilots will fall for it......
That might just be closer the pin than imagined.
If sources are correct, there might be a little announcement about something....

Would of course make a mockery of "good faith bargaining" if despite Little Napoleon's and Tino La Spiv arguments about "business cases" an aircraft was already ordered.....tsk tsk

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Old 10th Oct 2019, 08:53
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​​​​​ My guess is they've committed to either more 78's or the Sunrise frames and they know any of this leverage will be lost. So let's create a sense of urgency to get what we want. Those pesky pilots will fall for it ​​
YES

That might just be closer the pin than imagined.
If sources are correct, there might be a little announcement about something....
,
Would of course make a mockery of "good faith bargaining" if despite Little Napoleon's and Tino La Spiv arguments about "business cases" an aircraft was already ordered.....tsk tsk
and YES

While there’s been some very good argument above on fatigue, rostering etc and ULH flying, I can’t help but think this has ruse and deception written all over it. These folk are masters at creating a crises and pilots are equally adept at falling for it. Don’t let them control the momentum and don’t agree to anything on a promise.
What we agree on will be set in concrete, what they promise can change at any time.
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Old 10th Oct 2019, 09:08
  #323 (permalink)  
 
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There are deleterious effects of elevated plasma cortisol (not just stress induced) as plasma cortisol rises with circadian disruption and sleep deprivation. Constant elevated plasma cortisol levels deliver a host of devastating health outcomes (metabolic and cognitive consequences) due to glucocorticoid excess. No, this isn’t only limited to pilots - it is extended to anyone, however, aircrew are subjecting themselves to impaired sleep very regularly (including short-haul).

Yes - the book by Matt Walker is an excellent one. Well written. His TED talk might be of interest to some.

As pilots - you’re statistically likely to suffer earlier mortality as a result of your lifestyles your vocation induces. And it this isn’t only due to circadian disruption and subsequent sleep deprivation (which is extremely powerful). As spoken about before - exposure to ionising radiation, poor nutritional outcomes etc., contribute to deleterious health outcomes. The issue is that not all of this is within your control. Treat sleep with the greatest respect.

https://www.ted.com/talks/matt_walke...er?language=en
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Old 10th Oct 2019, 09:22
  #324 (permalink)  
 
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Well all I can say is that is very hard to deal with a couple of navel gazers such as Curtain Twitcher and Rated De.
Are either of you prepared to declare your current role and past history in the airline industry?
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Old 10th Oct 2019, 10:04
  #325 (permalink)  
 
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I sincerely hope they don’t unless they feel a need to. I value their comments and it matters not a whit to me, whence they came.

Conversely, there are many others who comment, whose gravitas and/or industry experience is sadly lacking.
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Old 10th Oct 2019, 11:54
  #326 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by JamieMaree
Are either of you prepared to declare your current role and past history in the airline industry?
What's yours?
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Old 10th Oct 2019, 20:36
  #327 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SandyPalms
What's yours?
in excess of 40 years as a longhaul pilot
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Old 10th Oct 2019, 21:40
  #328 (permalink)  
 
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Jamie It's a shame you want to make this this into a d!ck measuring contest. I don't purport to be anyone, I could be some random guy from FlightSim world who sprouts complete BS and claim all sorts of thing about my alleged industry experience.

My posts are built on reason, logic and the best knowledge I can collect. I am more than happy to be wrong and corrected, as Churchill said, “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, madam?”.

Can you point to any clear body of scientifc data that suggests long term sleep deprivation has no harm? You want to play the man, not the ball because you appear to have no factual basis for you argument, except your anecdote of n=1. You may well have survived your 40 years of LH without any health effects, but then are also smokers who live to 100. A significant number of your fellow crew members are unlikely to be so fortunate based on the body of data.

If my links and data are bogus, I will stand by being pilliored because I am wrong. I would also like to thank you for keeping the thread active, enabling more individuals to be exposed to the arguments, to go and check out the podcasts in post #317 and decide for themselves what the latest research shows and what they whether they would accept any decrements to night credits in future contract negotiations.


But what would I know?
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Old 10th Oct 2019, 21:58
  #329 (permalink)  
 
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Ok, I accept that you have skin in the game and that you are not stating your points of view as a navel gazer.
I could make the facetious comment that if you were a longhaul pilot, your night hours would be at least double what they are.������
I am not trying to prosecute the argument that long term sleep deprivation has no harm. Reduction of night credits has no direct relationship with longevity.
All it means is that a Qf pilot has to work less flying hours to get a set number of credited hours.
Many longhaul pilots regularly push the 30 day 90 day and 365 day stick hourly limits notwithstanding night credits.
If night credits were abolished 900 credited hours would be 900 stick hours (disregarding MDC) and if the credited hour pay rate were to remain the same, it would be a massive productivity give. No effect on longevity.
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Old 10th Oct 2019, 22:02
  #330 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by JamieMaree
Ok, I accept that you have skin in the game and that you are not stating your points of view as a navel gazer.
I could make the facetious comment that if you were a longhaul pilot, your night hours would be at least double what they are.������
I am not trying to prosecute the argument that long term sleep deprivation has no harm. Reduction of night credits has no direct relationship with longevity.
All it means is that a Qf pilot has to work less flying hours to get a set number of credited hours.
Many longhaul pilots regularly push the 30 day 90 day and 365 day stick hourly limits notwithstanding night credits.
If night credits were abolished 900 credited hours would be 900 stick hours (disregarding MDC) and if the credited hour pay rate were to remain the same, it would be a massive productivity give. No effect on longevity.
No kidding, that's how it works. Its a disincentive for the company to max out hours.

Source: me, maxed out to 900 long haul the last few years and shagged.
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Old 10th Oct 2019, 22:14
  #331 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by JamieMaree
in excess of 40 years as a longhaul pilot
Just a question.

Would those 40 years have been accumulated with the protection of night credit?

It seems just as plausible that your longevity is at least in part due the protections in place.

Equally, it could be that your statistical sample is insufficient to be definitive to infer anything from a sample size of one.
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Old 10th Oct 2019, 23:46
  #332 (permalink)  
 
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Rat,
You’re too busy being angry to understand what I’m writing.
Im not advocating abolishing night credits.
If night credits are abolished and the credited hourly rate stays the same, Qf requires fewer pilots to do the same number of stick hours. The productivity gain is that the pilot payroll is less for the same number of stick hours. No effect on longevity though.

Maggot,
Explain how the disincentive works

Rated De,
Night credits is not a protection. It may have been in the 1960s, I don’t know.
In the early days ( up until 1980s) it and other things meant that a Qf pilot didn’t get anywhere 900 stick a year. Long trips, long slips,Qfs hopeless scheduling system, all combined to keep annual hours low. Changes to all these things plus increased divisors plus a willingness of pilots to chase the $ bumped annual hours up. The biggest thing though was the movement of the airline to direct flights which meant lots of stick hours in the one tour of duty. Guess who chased this flying as a preference, the pilots themselves.
Hello, hello! The biggest whinge you hear in short haul is that patterns don’t have enough stick hours per day. Fewer stick hours per day equals less days off.
Again, what your activity in the airline industry?

BTW, Angry, I’m still working.
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Old 11th Oct 2019, 04:44
  #333 (permalink)  
 
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Angry,
Repeat you are too angry to understand what I am writing.
I am NOT advocating abolishing night credits.
I AM questioning the assertions that Project Sunrise pilots are not going to live as long as non-Sunrise pilots.
I AM questioning the link between abolishing night credits and pilots not living as long as they otherwise would if night credits were not abolished.
I am NOT asking for pilots to do more work for less pay.
I am NOT trying to destroy anything.

Questions:
If a pilot dies of cancer in his 60s or 70s, is that attributable to sleep deprivation?
If a pilot dies in his 50s from a heart attack during strenuous exercise is that attributable to sleep deprivation?
If a pilot dies in his 50s from a heart attack on his farm on a day off is that attributable to sleep deprivation?
If a pilot dies in his 90s, does that mean he didn’t fly many hours at night or is he just a good daytime sleeper.
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Old 11th Oct 2019, 05:10
  #334 (permalink)  
 
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Questions:
If a pilot dies of cancer in his 60s or 70s, is that attributable to sleep deprivation?
If a pilot dies in his 50s from a heart attack during strenuous exercise is that attributable to sleep deprivation?
If a pilot dies in his 50s from a heart attack on his farm on a day off is that attributable to sleep deprivation?
If a pilot dies in his 90s, does that mean he didn’t fly many hours at night or is he just a good daytime sleeper.
All reasonable questions.
To answer those would require a longitudinal study with a rather large sample size.
Correlated risk factors would be inferred were there to be sufficient repeated observations and statistical significance.

I AM questioning the assertions that Project Sunrise pilots are not going to live as long as non-Sunrise pilots.
I AM questioning the link between abolishing night credits and pilots not living as long as they otherwise would if night credits were not abolished.
Without a robust statistically valid test none of the answers will be forthcoming. The best a valid sample will generate is inferential, but likely with a relatively high level of confidence.
The starting point for this would be simply to look at the long term sick leave for cabin and pilot crew and look/observe these outcomes over a number of years. This representative sample would then be contrasted to the general population.

Little Napoleon is as likely to welcome scrutiny of the last X years of health data as he is to give back his ill-gotten gains.

Unfortunately neither N=1 or N=3 with "chosen staff and crew" as the "representative sample" are likely to generate anything more than column inches in the daily rag and a nice junket for selected staff including a former AIPA President turned IR negotiator, Mr Safe.
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Old 12th Oct 2019, 03:00
  #335 (permalink)  
 
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As there are no long term studies I’ll throw up some anecdotal evidence. Brisbane based 747 crews for 3 years doing back to back JFK patterns. They were shattered, sleep patterns destroyed, sick leave up. A management pilot admitted to me that if the 747 wasnt finishing up they were going to close it down. One FO is still on long term sick leave. Also with both direct Heathrow and JFK rules have to be sorted out . Past experience has shown that you shouldn’t do both ports in the same roster for fatigue reasons . I may be laughed at but I’ll go on the record now as saying that there will be a lot of grief from this, when we had 30 747s I flew with an FO one day who had been on workers compensation for 6 months suffering sleep deprivation. Be very very careful what you sign up for.
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Old 12th Oct 2019, 04:12
  #336 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by dragon man
As there are no long term studies I’ll throw up some anecdotal evidence. Brisbane based 747 crews for 3 years doing back to back JFK patterns. They were shattered, sleep patterns destroyed, sick leave up. A management pilot admitted to me that if the 747 wasnt finishing up they were going to close it down. One FO is still on long term sick leave. Also with both direct Heathrow and JFK rules have to be sorted out . Past experience has shown that you shouldn’t do both ports in the same roster for fatigue reasons . I may be laughed at but I’ll go on the record now as saying that there will be a lot of grief from this, when we had 30 747s I flew with an FO one day who had been on workers compensation for 6 months suffering sleep deprivation. Be very very careful what you sign up for.
This is an excellent post. Very long single sectors or TODs are fatiguing. There's no way around that. But, crew numbers and mix, and decent rest areas can make it possible. The much, much bigger issue is rostering and recovery arrangements, if you ask me.

How long do you get in JFK/LHR before the return sector, is there an extended rest at home before flying your next sector, are there rules about back-to-back ULH sectors (not necessarily prohibiting them, but adding in extra rest of you do them) versus a LAX/HKG/HND sector (all hypthetically, of course).

It's generally not that hard to design safe operating procedures for a single, long duty. (Whether the IR and accountants want to pay for those procedures is another question.) The much more important part of a FRMS is allowing recovery of sleep debt and combating chronic fatigue.
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Old 12th Oct 2019, 05:46
  #337 (permalink)  
 
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Just a side Q as never done longhaul, what's the general feeling:

- minimum turnaround layover so get back to your "Australian" life pattern as soon as posible, or
- 3-4 day layover, semi adjust to local times then re-adjust again to oz lifestyle pattern?
Wondering if a strong preference either way from those with experience.

Cheers.
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Old 12th Oct 2019, 05:49
  #338 (permalink)  
 
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Little things matter like not waiting 60 minutes for crew bags or 30 minutes for transport. 4 crew and 11 hours of flight deck duty don’t cut it to me. Joyce may like a quick answer the last time we were rushed we had our pants well and truly pulled down.
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Old 12th Oct 2019, 06:49
  #339 (permalink)  
 
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Good Question !

Originally Posted by galdian
Just a side Q as never done longhaul, what's the general feeling:

- minimum turnaround layover so get back to your "Australian" life pattern as soon as posible, or
- 3-4 day layover, semi adjust to local times then re-adjust again to oz lifestyle pattern?
Wondering if a strong preference either way from those with experience.

Cheers.
Well, there’s the crunch Galdian. It varies significantly dependent on individuals and factors such as age, previous flight status (cumulative fatigue) and health!

Two local nights (over a 48hour period) usually give two-nights (probable) rest and recovery, theoretically.

However, with New York City, one is well and truly out of one’s Time Zone so if you don’t get to sleep, one is totally “mashed” to operate! And that’s two-crew currently, in congested airspace!

Rest wise, it can be the same with crews in SCL, LON and the same in JNB.

Generally, 48 hours (two full local nights) and its time to go. As a lot of the SCL crews find extended time in-country doesn’t really help, in fact, it makes it harder to get a sound sleep.

Some of the Pilots stay on SYD time which they say works for them though a tad-anti social and dis-connected.

KLM maintained some years ago that it was better to get out of Dodge and head-home ASAP on LH Flight Patterns.

I personally believe the magic number is around 48 hours (encompassing 2 local nights) however schedules just don’t give that option all the time.

With what Qantas is allegedly proposing in Project Sunrise, as SYD-LON and SYD-JFK, there is to date, only a very uncertain and vague outline without any known data to draw upon regarding rest. The Regulator the Pilot Unions and the Pilots themselves would want to progress very cautiously with whatever is agreed. If it's agreed!
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Old 12th Oct 2019, 07:50
  #340 (permalink)  
 
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If ANY pilot voted yes on a mythical contract with an imaginary airplane flying unknown routes with a barely agreed crew compliment in a yet to even be decided schedule, then said pilot has no place in the modern threat and error environment if they can’t manage said threats before they’ve even got to the car park for one of these proposed duties.
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