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Project Sunrise

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Old 14th Sep 2019, 09:55
  #161 (permalink)  
 
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Qantas will survive long term IMO , they have basically a monopoly on domestic services , a massive loyalty scheme and as aircraft are able to do direct services from Australia to either Europe or the USA the competition from Asian and the middle eastern airlines declines. The question for Qantas pilots will be how much they allow the company to screw their wages and conditions.
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Old 14th Sep 2019, 10:08
  #162 (permalink)  
 
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Additionally, there are no more gates or terminal space for a new entrant. That takes care of domestic.
Internationally, sunrise means no competition unless the bilateral nation has a partner willing to commit. .
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Old 14th Sep 2019, 11:36
  #163 (permalink)  
 
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Comparing the 1972 route map with the 2019 one almost all of Europe has gone, the Middle East has gone, no flights to the sub-continent, and been there has been partial replacement by flights to East Asia

I take the points about domestic - but never underestimate just what people will put up with to save $10.............

Internationally Chinese airlines will continue to grow and might bring serious pressure on those Chinese routes.

To my mind Project Sunrise is quite a clever response to their problems - if your main market is UK or US to Australia then by flying direct you are doing something your main opposition (SQ, Qatar, Emirates etc) can't compete on and may never be able to compete on.

Not too sure about the benefits of the vast QF Loyalty scheme - I suspect it puts bums on seats but is diluting the income - especially when those points are used to upgrade to Business or Prem Econ.



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Old 14th Sep 2019, 13:12
  #164 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
Comparing the 1972 route map with the 2019 one almost all of Europe has gone, the Middle East has gone, no flights to the sub-continent, and been there has been partial replacement by flights to East Asia

I take the points about domestic - but never underestimate just what people will put up with to save $10.............

Internationally Chinese airlines will continue to grow and might bring serious pressure on those Chinese routes.

To my mind Project Sunrise is quite a clever response to their problems - if your main market is UK or US to Australia then by flying direct you are doing something your main opposition (SQ, Qatar, Emirates etc) can't compete on and may never be able to compete on.

Not too sure about the benefits of the vast QF Loyalty scheme - I suspect it puts bums on seats but is diluting the income - especially when those points are used to upgrade to Business or Prem Econ.



Qantas makes money out of the points they sell. Do you think they give them away? One can’t survive without the other. As for project Sunrise (browneye) it’s a certainty. I’ll bet my left .. on it. Why else would Qantas promote 3 flights which will attract massive publicity if it wasn’t going to happen. It will happen but which aircraft they choose I’ve no idea. You wouldn’t go down this path of self promotion unless you already know the outcome. I predict an announcement after the LHR-SYD flight which ties in nicely with the 100th year anniversary. It’s a fait accompli. It’s so obvious you’d have to be an Ostrich not to see it.
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Old 14th Sep 2019, 16:09
  #165 (permalink)  
 
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Well said Troo... If QF want bananarama to happen it will! Subject to to aircraft capabilities.

Divers will accept Ts & Cs at some point, let’s face it the % cost of pirates ain’t that much in the grand scheme of things.

What will be interesting is reading this thread after 6 months of operations to read what the naysayers are banging out.

As has been said the PER - LHR has the same criticism before wheels up, now look at that...

Straya.........

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Old 14th Sep 2019, 22:23
  #166 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Troo believer

Qantas makes money out of the points they sell. Do you think they give them away? One can’t survive without the other.
When points are redeemed for a seat on a flight, the FF division pays an amount to QF Domestic or International roughly equivalent to a staff fare - you wouldn’t want more than 10% of the passengers on each flight to be FF redemptions as you won’t cover costs.

This always makes the FF scheme very profitable but it doesn’t generate much cash for the airline.
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Old 14th Sep 2019, 22:27
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Boeing would be disappointed with the B777-9 static frame test result after a cargo door blew off during final load testing.
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Old 14th Sep 2019, 22:39
  #168 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
Comparing the 1972 route map with the 2019 one almost all of Europe has gone, the Middle East has gone, no flights to the sub-continent, and been there has been partial replacement by flights to East Asia

I take the points about domestic - but never underestimate just what people will put up with to save $10.............

Internationally Chinese airlines will continue to grow and might bring serious pressure on those Chinese routes.

To my mind Project Sunrise is quite a clever response to their problems - if your main market is UK or US to Australia then by flying direct you are doing something your main opposition (SQ, Qatar, Emirates etc) can't compete on and may never be able to compete on.

Not too sure about the benefits of the vast QF Loyalty scheme - I suspect it puts bums on seats but is diluting the income - especially when those points are used to upgrade to Business or Prem Econ.



Well, for a start there were routes to/from the subcontinent and the ME because the aeroplanes didn’t have the range. Back then in the late 70s a one stop to London was SYD-MEL-PER-BOM-LHR and they were flying half a dozen 747s to Europe every day not always full.

Destinations like BOM and BAH were not for profit reasons but essentially for refuelling en route.
Before suggesting Qantas has shrunk, check out who of their competitors from that era still fly those routes... no KLM, no Lufthansa, no Alitalia, no Olympic, no British Airways to speak of, no Air France and a few more to boot.

Somehow all these route comparisons ignore the lack of other majors who flew the same routes. Geez, when some of those routes were being flown they were by the 707-338C!!!

QF didn’t fly to DFW, LAX, JFK or others back then either.
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Old 14th Sep 2019, 22:46
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Originally Posted by Troo believer
You wouldn’t go down this path of self promotion unless you already know the outcome. I predict an announcement after the LHR-SYD flight which ties in nicely with the 100th year anniversary. It’s a fait accompli. It’s so obvious you’d have to be an Ostrich not to see it.
RedQ?

Jetstar HK?

You mightn’t.....





Last edited by CaptCloudbuster; 14th Sep 2019 at 22:58.
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Old 15th Sep 2019, 02:54
  #170 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
I'm not so sure - in my travelling life-time QF have declined to become a niche international player - I can't see how they can compete with the Asian airlines long term

Domestic you can protect ....... until Ryanair Australia turn-up
The good news is this - “In your travelling life” doesn’t seem to have included the modern global airline industry. Or, you’re a poor version of an IR mouthpiece for your boss.

Aus $400K is normal for a 737 Captain. Tell Alan that he may have to readjust his goals. Again.

It’s going to be amazing.




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Old 15th Sep 2019, 09:46
  #171 (permalink)  
 
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"In your travelling life” doesn’t seem to have included the modern global airline industry"

regretfully I still seem to spend an awful lot of time flying about the globe.....................

TBH things have changed and keep changing - I can remember when the height of sophistication was a pull down screen on the forward bulkhead to watch an out of focus movie. That has improved - but check-in and security have become far worse. Real prices have plummeted - but so have standards of passenger treatment. Airlines run much more fuel efficient jets and the fuel price is much lower than the 80's but they still seem to lose money most of the time......................

Pilots always think they are underpaid and their T&C are awful - but it's one of the few industries were some people actually PAY (or work for nothing) their employers to build up experience (in the legal profession this went out around 1970)

I just see constant pressure on costs - from shareholders, banks etc and that means a change in the business model - go onto the Fragrant Harbour thread and read how the CX guys have had their T&C chipped away over the last 10-15 years and you'll get a flavour of what will happen at QF in the next 20.
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Old 15th Sep 2019, 10:04
  #172 (permalink)  
 
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I just see constant pressure on costs - from shareholders, banks etc and that means a change in the business model - go onto the Fragrant Harbour thread and read how the CX guys have had their T&C chipped away over the last 10-15 years and you'll get a flavour of what will happen at QF in the next 20.
What cost do you refer to?

If you refer to operating costs, that is low hanging fruit.
However, if you want a glimpse into the future, reform of the back office is where things will change.
Until that time, pilots will be under pressure but operating revenue is generated from operating, not administering.
With an aging western economy and substantial barriers to entry (money, time and aptitude) airlines have a relationship problem; their relationship with their staff, particularly operationally critical staff like pilots will change, eventually.

Wander around Cathay Pacific city, Waterside or the aptly named Coward Street.
Floors of staff all doing who knows what. They have to be carried in the seat cost of the the CGU (Qantas term Capital Generating Unit-Accountant speak for aircraft)
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Old 15th Sep 2019, 13:12
  #173 (permalink)  
 
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They'll just hire people from other countries claiming that the in-place staff are hidebound relics of the last Century

They'll throw around big buck numbers for earnings in the media to influence the guy in the street (see BA currently in the UK), they'll bang on about how few days you work and the perks...................

These people are not nice
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Old 15th Sep 2019, 22:19
  #174 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
"In your travelling life” doesn’t seem to have included the modern global airline industry"

regretfully I still seem to spend an awful lot of time flying about the globe.....................

TBH things have changed and keep changing - I can remember when the height of sophistication was a pull down screen on the forward bulkhead to watch an out of focus movie. That has improved - but check-in and security have become far worse. Real prices have plummeted - but so have standards of passenger treatment. Airlines run much more fuel efficient jets and the fuel price is much lower than the 80's but they still seem to lose money most of the time......................

Pilots always think they are underpaid and their T&C are awful - but it's one of the few industries were some people actually PAY (or work for nothing) their employers to build up experience (in the legal profession this went out around 1970)

I just see constant pressure on costs - from shareholders, banks etc and that means a change in the business model - go onto the Fragrant Harbour thread and read how the CX guys have had their T&C chipped away over the last 10-15 years and you'll get a flavour of what will happen at QF in the next 20.
So a 30% "chip away last LH EBA"..read "productivity increase"..wasnt enough for you?
I heard the opening statement from our ex AIPA president in the recently opened LH EA is for the Project Publicity a/c to be flown at B787 minus 10%...what would that make the productivity gain?
Have a look at how much the BA CEO makes. 1.3 million pounds. Cost saving should begin at Coward St...
And if you think people pay for GA flying, you are obviously stuck in the early 1990's.
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Old 15th Sep 2019, 23:03
  #175 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
They'll just hire people from other countries claiming that the in-place staff are hidebound relics of the last Century

They'll throw around big buck numbers for earnings in the media to influence the guy in the street (see BA currently in the UK), they'll bang on about how few days you work and the perks...................

These people are not nice
No you are correct, they are not nice.

Let them throw around the big numbers, the British Airways campaign is cut from the same playbook.

Problematic for all airlines is supply.
Demographics are creating big headaches, the barriers (cost) of entry and reduced terms and conditions make the industry far less attractive.
These issues will continue to generate real problems that will never be admitted but the market will adjust: either terms improve to induce supply or the cancellation rates grow.


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Old 18th Sep 2019, 04:01
  #176 (permalink)  
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See below:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12268734
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Old 19th Sep 2019, 04:04
  #177 (permalink)  
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Some more detail on the Project Sunrise research flights (or whatever you want to call them) in today's New Zealand Herald.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12268868
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Old 19th Sep 2019, 04:31
  #178 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by tartare
Some more detail on the Project Sunrise research flights (or whatever you want to call them) in today's New Zealand Herald.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12268868
As someone with more than a little interest in the plans I'd be interested to read how accurate the article is but can only read the first half dozen lines without paying for a subscription
(which I'll rarely use again). Any chance you can PM me a PDF?
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Old 19th Sep 2019, 07:12
  #179 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by tartare
Some more detail on the Project Sunrise research flights (or whatever you want to call them) in today's New Zealand Herald.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12268868
If I may be so bold - please don't link articles behind a paywall..........
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Old 19th Sep 2019, 10:26
  #180 (permalink)  
 
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Hong Kong used to be the bees bees as usual anything associated with China turns to **** rather rapidly, enter at own risk!
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