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Old 2nd Apr 2018, 12:45
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I've heared from several sources that the oil price may never rise again due to the falling demand that will come from the mass adoption of electric vehicles.
There are a number of issues with the fantasy of electric vehicles, least of all the generation of electricity which predominantly is generated using either fossil fuel (coal) or nuclear. The energy budget to build and run electric vehicles is a little more intensive than Mr Musk spruiks.

If one speaks to geologists or indeed 'oil people' their consensus is that it is in decline. The IEA has a plethora of public data and the 'convertible' reserves known in the world. Sadly the discoveries have not kept up with the consumption for decades, with annual consumption rising 1.3%. Discoveries have not kept up. The Permian basin and Bakken fields in the USA and the Ghawar field in Saudi Arabia are in decline and those who understand the geology realise that the shale industry creates enormous problems refining; it usually requires blending with heavier oils as it is thin. The refineries can't refine it without it being blended. There are no easy ways out of it!

Manufacturers and engineers are working on many ideas to reduce reliance on fossil fuels. Unfortunately, the hope of all electric cars is a little way off, if the issues of electricity generation and indeed rare earth metals (required for battery) scarcity can be solved.

Thus whilst Mr Joyce may well hope that fuel prices stay low, it would be prudent use of shareholder capital to re-equip Qantas with at least equal number of twin engined aircraft thereby lowering their fuel included CASK, growing Operating Margin and reducing emissions.

Whilst it is overdue that capital be directed at Qantas and having lost a lot of ground are doing something new (hence the title of this thread) it still seems irresponsible to waste shareholder funds on share buy backs.

Qantas need a new fleet.
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Old 2nd Apr 2018, 14:24
  #242 (permalink)  
 
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One of the sources I was talking to was an engineer from Mercedes Benz. Even Mercedes are predicting the take-up of electric vehicles to be huge and are forecasting a decline in oil consumption. Interestingly he and others also said that algae-oil, that is, making crude oil from algae in a pressure cooker will eventually make extracting crude oil from the ground un-economic. But that's not going to stem the rise of electric cars & trucks. Audi have even made diesel from water & CO2.

My main question is will the stable oil prices give a new life to the quads.
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Old 2nd Apr 2018, 15:34
  #243 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by nomorecatering
One of the sources I was talking to was an engineer from Mercedes Benz. Even Mercedes are predicting the take-up of electric vehicles to be huge and are forecasting a decline in oil consumption.
Yeah I bet he is, with the scandis and probably all of EU going to move to ban ICE cars by 2030

How much that will rub off the world, who knows but it will certainly drive the technology which will spill over to other markets at least.
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Old 3rd Apr 2018, 06:35
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One of the sources I was talking to was an engineer from Mercedes Benz. Even Mercedes are predicting the take-up of electric vehicles to be huge and are forecasting a decline in oil consumption
Naturally he is. The engineering may well work, but securing the rare earth metals is a problem. Leaving power generation to someone else a classic 'externality'. Elon Musk does the same thing. Any analysis of TSLA's cash position shows that there is a large gap between talk and success.


My main question is will the stable oil prices give a new life to the quads.
Your question has two answers. Yes it gives life to existing four engine aircraft. A depreciated mid life 747 with low fuel prices can and does make a good return. The second part of the answer requires an analysis of the WTI futures. There appears a little 'backwardation', however analysis from the manufacturers is predicated on higher oil or a contango situation, wherein the four engine aircraft (dependent upon age) as prices rise become progressively less viable.

With these scenarios it is our opinion that four engine production lines will slow and cease.

Perhaps an indicator of the 'value' of the four engine aircraft was the Etihad loss of $1.9 billion. There were write downs of fleet totaling $1 billion and some of their 'investments' but effectively the bigger aircraft were reduced to a near zero book value reflecting the realisable value in the second hand market. Inter woven here though is the politics and management culture in the Middle East.

Having said all that, if your brand can generate a good RASK and you can lower your fuel included CASK only the foolish would not choose to grow Operating Margins by spending a lot less on fuel by equipping the fleet with long range twins. Which is why most airlines have already do so.

Qantas need a new fleet
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Old 4th Apr 2018, 04:05
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Originally Posted by Heathrow Harry
No one will order a 747 in passenger configuration going forward for the reasons given by Rated

Only 47 -8I bought so far and no order for 18 months+

The big twins will get more economic not less and the 747 will be only built as a freighter - but it's had a 45 year run so not to shabby really
Why is it necessary to say 'going forward'... surely they wouldn't order it going backward???
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Old 4th Apr 2018, 04:06
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Originally Posted by Heathrow Harry
No one will order a 747 in passenger configuration going forward for the reasons given by Rated

Only 47 -8I bought so far and no order for 18 months+

The big twins will get more economic not less and the 747 will be only built as a freighter - but it's had a 45 year run so not to shabby really
... and it first flew in 1969 commercially so it's actually 49 years, just months away from 50.
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Old 4th Apr 2018, 04:07
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Originally Posted by Dee Vee
The 747's are old, noisy, have bad pressure and humidity levels and of course no WIFI. I will never fly one of these by choice.

I have on a number of occasions chosen a different airline, so I can fly on a modern, quiet, low altitude pressurised and humidified, WIFI enabled aircraft.
The 747-8 is not 'old'. You can't judge it by a 747-100.
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Old 4th Apr 2018, 07:32
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Originally Posted by AerialPerspective
Why is it necessary to say 'going forward'... surely they wouldn't order it going backward???
Noticed how any time you see the words “going forward” (as used in fashionable management-speak, rather than to indicate a direction of travel), you can delete them without changing the meaning of the sentence at all?
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Old 4th Apr 2018, 08:51
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Noticed how any time you see the words “going forward” (as used in fashionable management-speak, rather than to indicate a direction of travel), you can delete them without changing the meaning of the sentence at all?
It may help to fill in this card next time one is exposed to this crap (you may need a few cards, the BS flies thick in Corporate world)

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Old 4th Apr 2018, 10:42
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These guys do a good line in buzz words, it is kinda how I imagine all offices run

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Old 4th Apr 2018, 19:12
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Originally Posted by Rated De
It may help to fill in this card next time one is exposed to this crap (you may need a few cards, the BS flies thick in Corporate world)

Ohhhhhhhhhh no you don’t ! That list is missing some of the most important, and skin crawlingly important buzz words.

- Amaaaaaaaaazing.

- Gaaaaamechanga.

- Campus.

- Shim.

- The Group.

- Shared mental model

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Old 5th Apr 2018, 00:03
  #252 (permalink)  
 
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"Your Safety Will Be enhanced And It Will Cost You Less"...........



Circa 1991......
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Old 5th Apr 2018, 00:55
  #253 (permalink)  
 
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"Make the elephant dance" was one corporate message to the troops.
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Old 5th Apr 2018, 03:20
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A game changing resource for innovative disruptors whose corporate vision is synergising workflows in order to move the needle and shift the paradigm, moving forward. Ideal for thought leaders looking to climb the strategic staircase.

Business Buzzwords Generator - WSJ.com

Last edited by stormfury; 5th Apr 2018 at 03:31.
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Old 5th Apr 2018, 03:21
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I enjoy a bit of,

"Managing expectations"
"Stakeholder engagement"
"Customer driven"

And lastly,

"Industry best practice"
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Old 5th Apr 2018, 03:54
  #256 (permalink)  
 
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Just quote "anything heard on Next Step Course"...
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Old 5th Apr 2018, 06:40
  #257 (permalink)  
 
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Without wishing to detract from any of the exceptional wordsmithing depicted above, someone thought I’d find this funny. I did, but surely there aren’t TWO Gamechangers out there? That _could_ get confusing for people. How much gamechanging is actually going on out there?

PS: I’d rather listen to a thousand Clarkson’s than one Joyce...

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Old 5th Apr 2018, 10:51
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Sources suggest in the absence of any new aircraft, having 'game changed' the way to Europe on the 600th 787, Qantas IR have been quietly briefing certain 'friendly' (probably on the delivery flight of the first 787 for Qantas) media on a pending stoush with the pesky pilots.

If nothing else it will ensure that the little Napoleon gets to show his masculine side in yet another manufactured dispute, something which astute readers remember Qantas last did in 2011.

Mr. Joyce's second cousin Willie Walsh of IAG (Iberia/BA) likes a good stoush too, or so his script writers insist!

Rinse, wash and repeat..
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Old 5th Apr 2018, 11:33
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I can understand AJ’s, misguided, resentment toward those in the cockpit but WW’s downright hostility has always been a head-scratcher.
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Old 6th Apr 2018, 05:03
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Qantas need a new fleet
Folks,
That says it all, and a handful of B787 for the international operation is not a new fleet, it is just playing with the future of the international operation.

Qantas "should" be rolling over a 20y old B777 fleet into new gen B777 or whatever, and most of us know why, years ago, then management stopped capital investment for "international" stone dead.

Now, playing (almost) monopolies, or certainly "dominant dog" in the domestic market is all too easy.

And, surely, nobody in their right mind, even at current fuel prices, would suggest that the current versions of the B747 are aeroplanes of the high volume passenger future, compared to B777/A350 variants and whatever comes next??

And, for my money, great as it may be for the very small market in Perth, AU east coast to London, one stop via Perth, is a genuinely competitive non-starter, versus via SIN/BKK/HKG/TYO/take your pick.

Tootle pip!!
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