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Perth to London

Old 27th Dec 2018, 00:57
  #401 (permalink)  
 
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If they are able to fill it up, both ways, for 361 days of the year, or even 300 days of the year and are running at over 90% load factor then the route is a likley a success.
4 days with reduced load, one way, is hardly an issue.

Yes the route is a stretch but surely we should be encouraging some enterprising thinking rather than deciding itís all too hard.
Sure, the 789 is not best suited to the route range-wise but thatís the type they have a tonne of on order at a cheap price. A 777 or 350 may be too large a pax load for the route.
So perhaps when you take into account the unit price, highly premium config and the expected market for the route, the 789 might be the best possible aircraft and you just have to wear the fact itís a bit tight on range.

I, for one, am glad they chose to give it a go rather than said donít bother itís all too hard.

For all QF managementís failings we should still support attempts to open up new, unique route options. Letís hope there are more new routes, however tight.
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Old 27th Dec 2018, 01:24
  #402 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Beer Baron View Post
If they are able to fill it up, both ways, for 361 days of the year, or even 300 days of the year and are running at over 90% load factor then the route is a likley a success.
4 days with reduced load, one way, is hardly an issue.

Yes the route is a stretch but surely we should be encouraging some enterprising thinking rather than deciding itís all too hard.
Sure, the 789 is not best suited to the route range-wise but thatís the type they have a tonne of on order at a cheap price. A 777 or 350 may be too large a pax load for the route.
So perhaps when you take into account the unit price, highly premium config and the expected market for the route, the 789 might be the best possible aircraft and you just have to wear the fact itís a bit tight on range.

I, for one, am glad they chose to give it a go rather than said donít bother itís all too hard.

For all QF managementís failings we should still support attempts to open up new, unique route options. Letís hope there are more new routes, however tight.
I donít think anyone will argue with that, however the mantra of right aircraft right route that they sprout comes to mind. Squeezing the lemon on this, 737s Sydney and Melbourne to Bali, 787 Brisbane to lax and on to JFK. As said many times above Qantas need a new fleet.
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Old 27th Dec 2018, 01:41
  #403 (permalink)  
 
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The punters on board in economy would be loving the 40 empty seats!
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Old 27th Dec 2018, 01:55
  #404 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Global Aviator View Post
The punters on board in economy would be loving the 40 empty seats!
I wonder how the 40 punters who were transferred to another flight felt?
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Old 27th Dec 2018, 02:33
  #405 (permalink)  
 
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source: https://bitre.gov.au/publications/on...lications.aspx
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Old 27th Dec 2018, 04:17
  #406 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by CurtainTwitcher View Post

These figures donít include pax on a Melbourne to London ticket. Load factors improve significantly (into the 90s) when included.
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Old 27th Dec 2018, 04:25
  #407 (permalink)  
 
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On one hand we have Rated De and others carrying on about a new fleet and lamenting AJ’s apparently never ending incompetence, and on the other we have brand new B787s operating on a brand new and operationally challenging route with consistent load factors over 90%.

45 econ seats blocked because it’s hot in Perth this week? Whatever. Keep it up!
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Old 27th Dec 2018, 04:38
  #408 (permalink)  
 
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Thank you CT, the BITRE figures are also indicative that the aircraft is payload constrained ex YPPH.
That the under floor cargo capacity and (indeed in some cases as suggested by other posters) seats are blocked off highlight just how marginal it is.

A well structured fleet plan, financed and executed never sees aircraft needing to operate well beyond the design sweet spot.
  • As dragon man highlighted the 737 east to Bali is another example where a type is operated well beyond optimum.

That the aircraft seems to not carry much freight westbound shows this route to be very limiting. Indeed the BITRE panel data supports a substantial decline in freight tonnage YOY. This ought largely be the change in aircraft type as the schedule is almost identical.
That the aircraft needs to block out seats, not for freight but literally to reduce weight and maximise fuel uplift indicates that the route is a long way beyond optimum.

These figures don’t include pax on a Melbourne to London ticket. Load factors improve significantly (into the 90s) when included.
If the LF inclusive of the YMML passenger are into the 'high 90's' then blocking out those seats when the 'environmental variables' come into the mix is another inference that the route is beyond the aircraft.

It may be worth 'having a go', but with the caveat that if the 'environmental variables' impact upon the operation sufficiently, the customers will, as they demonstrated when Little Napoleon spent $100m moving the hub to Dubai, only to spend another $60 million moving it back, continue to opt for a short transit through Singapore. Marketing aside, the customer has a choice from Melbourne, either stop in Singapore after their flight from Melbourne and then fly to Heathrow. Or stop in Perth, then spend longer on the second leg.
As Cathay, Singapore and most of the other airlines flying through Asia to Europe found when Little Napoleon abandoned Asia, passengers will vote with their feet.
Let us see how the Northern winter develops, as Qantas will no doubt completely inform the travelling public if the schedule integrity is found wanting.
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Old 27th Dec 2018, 04:40
  #409 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by *Lancer* View Post
On one hand we have Rated De and others carrying on about a new fleet and lamenting AJís apparently never ending incompetence, and on the other we have brand new B787s operating on a brand new and operationally challenging route with consistent load factors over 90%.

45 econ seats blocked because itís hot in Perth this week? Whatever. Keep it up!
There are eight aircraft Lancer. JQ have another 100 coming. Mr Dixon ordered the aircraft in 2006.
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Old 27th Dec 2018, 05:04
  #410 (permalink)  
 
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When y’all start an airline, you can buy whatever aircraft you want and put them on whatever routes you want and read what a bunch of halfwit-know-it-alls (I’m including myself in that) on the Internet think of the way you do business. ohnohedidnt
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Old 27th Dec 2018, 05:25
  #411 (permalink)  
 
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We also have the 380 operating on Dallas to Sydney with a huge number of economy seats blocked out. Right aircraft , right route? Yea sure?
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Old 27th Dec 2018, 05:31
  #412 (permalink)  
 
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I should have added as well that the route planning guru they employed has been sacked. Don’t toe the line you are shown the door.
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Old 27th Dec 2018, 05:45
  #413 (permalink)  
 
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Maybe mention should be made also of how having abandoned the hub in Singapore but now having a suitable aircraft (the 787) Qantas could actually operate the 787 from this hub having originated in Perth and Brisbane thru to maybe Frankfurt, Rome and or Paris instead of giving those customers to Emerates. IMO this would be right aircraft , right route.
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Old 27th Dec 2018, 06:45
  #414 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by dragon man View Post
Maybe mention should be made also of how having abandoned the hub in Singapore but now having a suitable aircraft (the 787) Qantas could actually operate the 787 from this hub having originated in Perth and Brisbane thru to maybe Frankfurt, Rome and or Paris instead of giving those customers to Emirates.


Emphasis on THE aircraft. Singular - Well put, and in accordance with Napolean's world domination plans of shrinking to greatness. A bigger man might dream of a fleet maybe as large as two, but our big man is happy with a suitably diminutive fleet.

I suspect those customers are long gone. Sold for twenty pieces of silver
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Old 27th Dec 2018, 07:18
  #415 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by dragon man View Post
Maybe mention should be made also of how having abandoned the hub in Singapore but now having a suitable aircraft (the 787) Qantas could actually operate the 787 from this hub having originated in Perth and Brisbane thru to maybe Frankfurt, Rome and or Paris instead of giving those customers to Emerates. IMO this would be right aircraft , right route.
Having established with certain media outlets, a narrative of 'terminal decline', three weeks before the grounding Qantas quietly applied to transfer all European flying (with exception of 2 daily EGLL) to a wholly owned subsidiary. Any guess who?
As a result at execution QF experienced a substantial decline in passenger numbers and thus revenues, this is historic record. The result a hastily convened DXB 'alliance' and Dubai hub. The cost of $100 million borne by shareholders, who also financed the return to Singapore. The hub, now abandoned and the lack of growth in revenues indicative that despite their best effort, they needed to do something else. Their remaining customers had said so since it was announced.

That they are having a go is admirable, however that the aircraft is stretched and any impact of an environmental variable curtails the service reliability is indicative that this is the case.. Perhaps a reason why other airlines are not employing the aircraft on such a 'hail Mary' stage length.

That the aircraft was ordered by Mr Dixon in 2006 is testament to a decade of mismanagement where aircraft operating routes that are beyond their optimum is seen as 'growth'.
Aircraft and route planning is detailed and a necessarily complex process. This aircraft may be many things, but given the impact, environment (whether it be runway limits, temperature, crew duty limits, crosswind limits or fuel) has, it is reasonable to infer it was not designed to do what they are trying to get it to do, It is perhaps a glimpse into QF mindset that aircraft selection and route planning has been neglected for an extended period of time, roughly at least coincident with Little Napoleon's tenure.
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Old 27th Dec 2018, 07:30
  #416 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Rated De View Post
There are eight aircraft Lancer. JQ have another 100 coming. Mr Dixon ordered the aircraft in 2006.
There are some selective figures here.

Qantas Airlines indeed has only 8 B787s operating, but with a further 6 coming. Itís probable more will follow, in addition to Sunrise. There are also still 8 A380s on order, to be converted to <insert type here>. None were converted to A320s, with a separate order for 99 of which only 18 A321neoLRs have been committed to Jetstar Australia.

ĎNarrativesí are spun on all sides Rated De.
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Old 27th Dec 2018, 07:37
  #417 (permalink)  
 
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There is obviously no one here who understands the payload planning process, the assumptions used and probabilities.
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Old 27th Dec 2018, 08:07
  #418 (permalink)  
 
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If the LF inclusive of the YMML passenger are into the 'high 90's' then blocking out those seats when the 'environmental variables' come into the mix is another inference that the route is beyond the aircraft.
Not really. This is far from the only route in the world that has blocked seats to maintain the integrity of the service, and itís only doing so on a minority of services during a small window of the year to a small number of seats. If the remaining seats are full, (as you can imagine they pretty much would be if the regular loads are in the 90ís), then the aircraft still has an 80% load factor based on its maximum capacity. Well above break even, especially if you consider that Business and Premium are full, and of the freight carried, some of is Ďpremiumí in nature, being time critical or benefiting from the lack of an additional stop in warm climates.

True, the yield premium is there only if there is schedule integrity, but if you are asking 20 or so (no, not 45, they arenít flying 100% full), lower yielding economy pax to head to London via Singapore to ensure this, I hardly see the drama.





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Old 27th Dec 2018, 09:29
  #419 (permalink)  
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Aircraft and route planning is detailed and a necessarily complex process.
Didn’t they get rid of all the Pilots and Engineers out of Management? You know, the people who know how aeroplanes work and what happens in the ‘real’ world.
Replaced by young Management/Marketing wiz kids, straight out of uni and who know nothing about aviation!
God help us!
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Old 27th Dec 2018, 10:55
  #420 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ExtraShot View Post
This is far from the only route in the world that has blocked seats to maintain the integrity of the service, and itís only doing so on a minority of services during a small window of the year to a small number of seats.
Furthermore, any pax you suppress are the low (or zero) revenue ones. The staff, the frequent flyer redemptions, the ID90s, the PR handouts, etc.
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