Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific Airline and RPT Rumours & News in Australia, enZed and the Pacific

Perth to London

Old 2nd Apr 2018, 12:32
  #241 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: Tent
Posts: 476
I thought Qantas still had 2 x 787 on order?

Yes you seem to understand the slide of hand well.

What do Qantas "use JQ or JQ use Qantas" as in states for crew?
Bend alot is offline  
Old 2nd Apr 2018, 12:54
  #242 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Oz
Posts: 822
Who needs a window, PER-LHR is at night, nothing to look at.

I've heared from several sources that the oil price may never rise again due to the falling demand that will come from the mass adoption of electric vehicles.

Could this be the savior of the 747-8. Is there any possibility of a 4 row fuselage stretch. I know the PIP programmes for the engines are on their way, or maybe delivered, but is there anything left in terms of improvements in the future. How far behind in terms of SFC are they compared to the 777x engines.
nomorecatering is offline  
Old 2nd Apr 2018, 13:42
  #243 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: Tent
Posts: 476
Oil will always rise and fall, but extraction technology has sort of put a cap on OPEC's say in the oil price.


Currently $60 bucks and ever man and dog will flood the market, $50 keeps the reliable feed and $40 is the ones that must.


The Quads need to be twins in cruise, Far more easy to do with a Tri.
Bend alot is offline  
Old 2nd Apr 2018, 13:45
  #244 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Location: Europe
Posts: 1,680
I've heared from several sources that the oil price may never rise again due to the falling demand that will come from the mass adoption of electric vehicles.
There are a number of issues with the fantasy of electric vehicles, least of all the generation of electricity which predominantly is generated using either fossil fuel (coal) or nuclear. The energy budget to build and run electric vehicles is a little more intensive than Mr Musk spruiks.

If one speaks to geologists or indeed 'oil people' their consensus is that it is in decline. The IEA has a plethora of public data and the 'convertible' reserves known in the world. Sadly the discoveries have not kept up with the consumption for decades, with annual consumption rising 1.3%. Discoveries have not kept up. The Permian basin and Bakken fields in the USA and the Ghawar field in Saudi Arabia are in decline and those who understand the geology realise that the shale industry creates enormous problems refining; it usually requires blending with heavier oils as it is thin. The refineries can't refine it without it being blended. There are no easy ways out of it!

Manufacturers and engineers are working on many ideas to reduce reliance on fossil fuels. Unfortunately, the hope of all electric cars is a little way off, if the issues of electricity generation and indeed rare earth metals (required for battery) scarcity can be solved.

Thus whilst Mr Joyce may well hope that fuel prices stay low, it would be prudent use of shareholder capital to re-equip Qantas with at least equal number of twin engined aircraft thereby lowering their fuel included CASK, growing Operating Margin and reducing emissions.

Whilst it is overdue that capital be directed at Qantas and having lost a lot of ground are doing something new (hence the title of this thread) it still seems irresponsible to waste shareholder funds on share buy backs.

Qantas need a new fleet.
Rated De is offline  
Old 2nd Apr 2018, 15:24
  #245 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Oz
Posts: 822
One of the sources I was talking to was an engineer from Mercedes Benz. Even Mercedes are predicting the take-up of electric vehicles to be huge and are forecasting a decline in oil consumption. Interestingly he and others also said that algae-oil, that is, making crude oil from algae in a pressure cooker will eventually make extracting crude oil from the ground un-economic. But that's not going to stem the rise of electric cars & trucks. Audi have even made diesel from water & CO2.

My main question is will the stable oil prices give a new life to the quads.
nomorecatering is offline  
Old 2nd Apr 2018, 16:34
  #246 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: sincity
Posts: 1,012
Originally Posted by nomorecatering View Post
One of the sources I was talking to was an engineer from Mercedes Benz. Even Mercedes are predicting the take-up of electric vehicles to be huge and are forecasting a decline in oil consumption.
Yeah I bet he is, with the scandis and probably all of EU going to move to ban ICE cars by 2030

How much that will rub off the world, who knows but it will certainly drive the technology which will spill over to other markets at least.
maggot is offline  
Old 3rd Apr 2018, 07:35
  #247 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Location: Europe
Posts: 1,680
One of the sources I was talking to was an engineer from Mercedes Benz. Even Mercedes are predicting the take-up of electric vehicles to be huge and are forecasting a decline in oil consumption
Naturally he is. The engineering may well work, but securing the rare earth metals is a problem. Leaving power generation to someone else a classic 'externality'. Elon Musk does the same thing. Any analysis of TSLA's cash position shows that there is a large gap between talk and success.


My main question is will the stable oil prices give a new life to the quads.
Your question has two answers. Yes it gives life to existing four engine aircraft. A depreciated mid life 747 with low fuel prices can and does make a good return. The second part of the answer requires an analysis of the WTI futures. There appears a little 'backwardation', however analysis from the manufacturers is predicated on higher oil or a contango situation, wherein the four engine aircraft (dependent upon age) as prices rise become progressively less viable.

With these scenarios it is our opinion that four engine production lines will slow and cease.

Perhaps an indicator of the 'value' of the four engine aircraft was the Etihad loss of $1.9 billion. There were write downs of fleet totaling $1 billion and some of their 'investments' but effectively the bigger aircraft were reduced to a near zero book value reflecting the realisable value in the second hand market. Inter woven here though is the politics and management culture in the Middle East.

Having said all that, if your brand can generate a good RASK and you can lower your fuel included CASK only the foolish would not choose to grow Operating Margins by spending a lot less on fuel by equipping the fleet with long range twins. Which is why most airlines have already do so.

Qantas need a new fleet
Rated De is offline  
Old 4th Apr 2018, 05:05
  #248 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Australia
Posts: 634
Originally Posted by Heathrow Harry View Post
No one will order a 747 in passenger configuration going forward for the reasons given by Rated

Only 47 -8I bought so far and no order for 18 months+

The big twins will get more economic not less and the 747 will be only built as a freighter - but it's had a 45 year run so not to shabby really
Why is it necessary to say 'going forward'... surely they wouldn't order it going backward???
AerialPerspective is offline  
Old 4th Apr 2018, 05:06
  #249 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Australia
Posts: 634
Originally Posted by Heathrow Harry View Post
No one will order a 747 in passenger configuration going forward for the reasons given by Rated

Only 47 -8I bought so far and no order for 18 months+

The big twins will get more economic not less and the 747 will be only built as a freighter - but it's had a 45 year run so not to shabby really
... and it first flew in 1969 commercially so it's actually 49 years, just months away from 50.
AerialPerspective is offline  
Old 4th Apr 2018, 05:07
  #250 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Australia
Posts: 634
Originally Posted by Dee Vee View Post
The 747's are old, noisy, have bad pressure and humidity levels and of course no WIFI. I will never fly one of these by choice.

I have on a number of occasions chosen a different airline, so I can fly on a modern, quiet, low altitude pressurised and humidified, WIFI enabled aircraft.
The 747-8 is not 'old'. You can't judge it by a 747-100.
AerialPerspective is offline  
Old 4th Apr 2018, 08:32
  #251 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: Elsewhere
Posts: 369
Originally Posted by AerialPerspective View Post
Why is it necessary to say 'going forward'... surely they wouldn't order it going backward???
Noticed how any time you see the words “going forward” (as used in fashionable management-speak, rather than to indicate a direction of travel), you can delete them without changing the meaning of the sentence at all?
itsnotthatbloodyhard is offline  
Old 4th Apr 2018, 09:51
  #252 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Location: Europe
Posts: 1,680
Noticed how any time you see the words “going forward” (as used in fashionable management-speak, rather than to indicate a direction of travel), you can delete them without changing the meaning of the sentence at all?
It may help to fill in this card next time one is exposed to this crap (you may need a few cards, the BS flies thick in Corporate world)

Rated De is offline  
Old 4th Apr 2018, 11:42
  #253 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Australia the Awesome
Posts: 176
These guys do a good line in buzz words, it is kinda how I imagine all offices run

Roj approved is offline  
Old 4th Apr 2018, 20:12
  #254 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: The Dirty South
Posts: 392
Originally Posted by Rated De View Post
It may help to fill in this card next time one is exposed to this crap (you may need a few cards, the BS flies thick in Corporate world)

Ohhhhhhhhhh no you don’t ! That list is missing some of the most important, and skin crawlingly important buzz words.

- Amaaaaaaaaazing.

- Gaaaaamechanga.

- Campus.

- Shim.

- The Group.

- Shared mental model

JPJP is offline  
Old 5th Apr 2018, 01:03
  #255 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Up The 116E, Stbd Turn at 32S...:-)
Age: 78
Posts: 2,740
"Your Safety Will Be enhanced And It Will Cost You Less"...........



Circa 1991......
Ex FSO GRIFFO is offline  
Old 5th Apr 2018, 01:55
  #256 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: N/A
Posts: 3,047
"Make the elephant dance" was one corporate message to the troops.
megan is offline  
Old 5th Apr 2018, 04:20
  #257 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2017
Location: Global Citizen
Posts: 148
A game changing resource for innovative disruptors whose corporate vision is synergising workflows in order to move the needle and shift the paradigm, moving forward. Ideal for thought leaders looking to climb the strategic staircase.

Business Buzzwords Generator - WSJ.com

Last edited by stormfury; 5th Apr 2018 at 04:31.
stormfury is offline  
Old 5th Apr 2018, 04:21
  #258 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Vietnam
Posts: 1,244
I enjoy a bit of,

"Managing expectations"
"Stakeholder engagement"
"Customer driven"

And lastly,

"Industry best practice"
pilotchute is offline  
Old 5th Apr 2018, 04:54
  #259 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2018
Location: Wellington
Posts: 195
Just quote "anything heard on Next Step Course"...
Street garbage is offline  
Old 5th Apr 2018, 07:40
  #260 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: S33E151
Posts: 905
Without wishing to detract from any of the exceptional wordsmithing depicted above, someone thought I’d find this funny. I did, but surely there aren’t TWO Gamechangers out there? That _could_ get confusing for people. How much gamechanging is actually going on out there?

PS: I’d rather listen to a thousand Clarkson’s than one Joyce...

V-Jet is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service - Do Not Sell My Personal Information

Copyright © 2018 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.