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I've heared from several sources that the oil price may never rise again due to the falling demand that will come from the mass adoption of electric vehicles.
If one speaks to geologists or indeed 'oil people' their consensus is that it is in decline. The IEA has a plethora of public data and the 'convertible' reserves known in the world. Sadly the discoveries have not kept up with the consumption for decades, with annual consumption rising 1.3%. Discoveries have not kept up. The Permian basin and Bakken fields in the USA and the Ghawar field in Saudi Arabia are in decline and those who understand the geology realise that the shale industry creates enormous problems refining; it usually requires blending with heavier oils as it is thin. The refineries can't refine it without it being blended. There are no easy ways out of it!
Manufacturers and engineers are working on many ideas to reduce reliance on fossil fuels. Unfortunately, the hope of all electric cars is a little way off, if the issues of electricity generation and indeed rare earth metals (required for battery) scarcity can be solved.
Thus whilst Mr Joyce may well hope that fuel prices stay low, it would be prudent use of shareholder capital to re-equip Qantas with at least equal number of twin engined aircraft thereby lowering their fuel included CASK, growing Operating Margin and reducing emissions.
Whilst it is overdue that capital be directed at Qantas and having lost a lot of ground are doing something new (hence the title of this thread) it still seems irresponsible to waste shareholder funds on share buy backs.
Qantas need a new fleet.
One of the sources I was talking to was an engineer from Mercedes Benz. Even Mercedes are predicting the take-up of electric vehicles to be huge and are forecasting a decline in oil consumption. Interestingly he and others also said that algae-oil, that is, making crude oil from algae in a pressure cooker will eventually make extracting crude oil from the ground un-economic. But that's not going to stem the rise of electric cars & trucks. Audi have even made diesel from water & CO2.
My main question is will the stable oil prices give a new life to the quads.
My main question is will the stable oil prices give a new life to the quads.
How much that will rub off the world, who knows but it will certainly drive the technology which will spill over to other markets at least.
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One of the sources I was talking to was an engineer from Mercedes Benz. Even Mercedes are predicting the take-up of electric vehicles to be huge and are forecasting a decline in oil consumption
My main question is will the stable oil prices give a new life to the quads.
With these scenarios it is our opinion that four engine production lines will slow and cease.
Perhaps an indicator of the 'value' of the four engine aircraft was the Etihad loss of $1.9 billion. There were write downs of fleet totaling $1 billion and some of their 'investments' but effectively the bigger aircraft were reduced to a near zero book value reflecting the realisable value in the second hand market. Inter woven here though is the politics and management culture in the Middle East.
Having said all that, if your brand can generate a good RASK and you can lower your fuel included CASK only the foolish would not choose to grow Operating Margins by spending a lot less on fuel by equipping the fleet with long range twins. Which is why most airlines have already do so.
Qantas need a new fleet
No one will order a 747 in passenger configuration going forward for the reasons given by Rated
Only 47 -8I bought so far and no order for 18 months+
The big twins will get more economic not less and the 747 will be only built as a freighter - but it's had a 45 year run so not to shabby really
Only 47 -8I bought so far and no order for 18 months+
The big twins will get more economic not less and the 747 will be only built as a freighter - but it's had a 45 year run so not to shabby really
No one will order a 747 in passenger configuration going forward for the reasons given by Rated
Only 47 -8I bought so far and no order for 18 months+
The big twins will get more economic not less and the 747 will be only built as a freighter - but it's had a 45 year run so not to shabby really
Only 47 -8I bought so far and no order for 18 months+
The big twins will get more economic not less and the 747 will be only built as a freighter - but it's had a 45 year run so not to shabby really
The 747's are old, noisy, have bad pressure and humidity levels and of course no WIFI. I will never fly one of these by choice.
I have on a number of occasions chosen a different airline, so I can fly on a modern, quiet, low altitude pressurised and humidified, WIFI enabled aircraft.
I have on a number of occasions chosen a different airline, so I can fly on a modern, quiet, low altitude pressurised and humidified, WIFI enabled aircraft.
Noticed how any time you see the words “going forward” (as used in fashionable management-speak, rather than to indicate a direction of travel), you can delete them without changing the meaning of the sentence at all?
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Noticed how any time you see the words “going forward” (as used in fashionable management-speak, rather than to indicate a direction of travel), you can delete them without changing the meaning of the sentence at all?
- Amaaaaaaaaazing.
- Gaaaaamechanga.
- Campus.
- Shim.
- The Group.
- Shared mental model
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A game changing resource for innovative disruptors whose corporate vision is synergising workflows in order to move the needle and shift the paradigm, moving forward. Ideal for thought leaders looking to climb the strategic staircase.
Business Buzzwords Generator - WSJ.com
Business Buzzwords Generator - WSJ.com
Last edited by stormfury; 5th Apr 2018 at 03:31.
Without wishing to detract from any of the exceptional wordsmithing depicted above, someone thought I’d find this funny. I did, but surely there aren’t TWO Gamechangers out there? That _could_ get confusing for people. How much gamechanging is actually going on out there?
PS: I’d rather listen to a thousand Clarkson’s than one Joyce...
PS: I’d rather listen to a thousand Clarkson’s than one Joyce...
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Sources suggest in the absence of any new aircraft, having 'game changed' the way to Europe on the 600th 787, Qantas IR have been quietly briefing certain 'friendly' (probably on the delivery flight of the first 787 for Qantas) media on a pending stoush with the pesky pilots.
If nothing else it will ensure that the little Napoleon gets to show his masculine side in yet another manufactured dispute, something which astute readers remember Qantas last did in 2011.
Mr. Joyce's second cousin Willie Walsh of IAG (Iberia/BA) likes a good stoush too, or so his script writers insist!
Rinse, wash and repeat..
If nothing else it will ensure that the little Napoleon gets to show his masculine side in yet another manufactured dispute, something which astute readers remember Qantas last did in 2011.
Mr. Joyce's second cousin Willie Walsh of IAG (Iberia/BA) likes a good stoush too, or so his script writers insist!
Rinse, wash and repeat..
Qantas need a new fleet
That says it all, and a handful of B787 for the international operation is not a new fleet, it is just playing with the future of the international operation.
Qantas "should" be rolling over a 20y old B777 fleet into new gen B777 or whatever, and most of us know why, years ago, then management stopped capital investment for "international" stone dead.
Now, playing (almost) monopolies, or certainly "dominant dog" in the domestic market is all too easy.
And, surely, nobody in their right mind, even at current fuel prices, would suggest that the current versions of the B747 are aeroplanes of the high volume passenger future, compared to B777/A350 variants and whatever comes next??
And, for my money, great as it may be for the very small market in Perth, AU east coast to London, one stop via Perth, is a genuinely competitive non-starter, versus via SIN/BKK/HKG/TYO/take your pick.
Tootle pip!!