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Why does CASA allow twin engine ETOPS operation at all?

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Why does CASA allow twin engine ETOPS operation at all?

Old 4th Feb 2018, 04:23
  #121 (permalink)  
 
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OK then, TIEW. Walk me through what matters CASA takes into consideration, and what weights are attributed to to each matter, in deciding the standards that should be set for ‘Community Service Flights’.
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Old 4th Feb 2018, 06:34
  #122 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Dick Smith View Post
Plovett.

I think what is important is what happens in practice. Over the last decade CASA appears to have been responsible for a one way ratchet in increasing costs on GA.

The unique ADSB mandate is just one example. And also part 61.

I have been told many times by CASA people that they do not have any legislative requirement to promote a profitable industry or get more people flying so they can benefit from a safer form of travel.

Seems strange to me that you say they will have to be forced to change. Why would they not want to change and get more people flying.?
What is important is what is argued in court. I have no dispute with you over the ever-increasing costs imposed on GA in the supposed name of safety.

The requirement to consider the industry was removed from the legislation following the Monarch and Seaview airlines crashes. We now have what we have because it was argued that the then CAA (I think) was too close to the industry.

I have long thought that CASA does not want more people flying unless it is in a proper high-capacity airliner. Something they can understand - they have no hope of understanding GA so they would rather it didn't exist. They will have to be forced to change, I see no other way. The industry cannot agree on what day it is let alone come together for a concerted attack on CASA. The pressure must come though the politicians and the only way they will move is if they think they will lose votes. As you might have guessed I don't hold out high hopes for a long-lived GA sector.
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Old 4th Feb 2018, 07:15
  #123 (permalink)  
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Plovett

You make some very good points.

What is clearly now happening was probably not intended. That is a very damaged and contracting training industry. Reported 30% reduction in the last 5 years. This will result in pilots having to be imported if not corrected. Many will come from developing countries and we just have to hope that our extraordinary airline safety record will be maintained.

You are correct that the present cargo cult “safety before cost” claim came in after the Monarch and Seaview fatals. But it was a con. CAA personnel were not too close to these companies. The CAA people were just slack and did not take proper enforcement action when there was a history of non compliance. Also there was not a proper, and still isn’t, administrative fine system.

One day those involved with air safety regulation will see it’s better to be honest with politicians and the traveling public and explain that there will often be decisions made on what the people paying for the benefit can afford. Then the GA training industry will be able to grow again.

Last edited by Dick Smith; 4th Feb 2018 at 07:25.
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Old 4th Feb 2018, 08:03
  #124 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Lead Balloon View Post
OK then, TIEW. Walk me through what matters CASA takes into consideration, and what weights are attributed to to each matter, in deciding the standards that should be set for ‘Community Service Flights’.
I have no idea what they look at, but I imagine that they examine all aspects, and if they decide that the operation is 'safe' relative to whatever circumstances are proposed to conduct it, they allow it, or allow it if certain conditions are met. It doesn't have to be so safe as to make it impossible, just 'safe', ie not 'unsafe'. Then they've met their obligations as far as I'm concerned.
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Old 4th Feb 2018, 08:31
  #125 (permalink)  
 
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Your imagination is perfectly reasonable.

Alas, the reality is starkly different from what you imagine. CASA would’t have a clue, doesn’t have a clue and therefore produces clueless proposasl on what the standards should be for ‘Community Service Flights’.

This is not criticism of CASA. CASA wouldn’t know.
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Old 4th Feb 2018, 09:37
  #126 (permalink)  
 
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It's only my opinion. I am no defender or fan of CASA. Your 'reality' is also only your perception and opinion. Like the OP continually fails to realise, perception and opinion are not facts.
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Old 4th Feb 2018, 10:46
  #127 (permalink)  
 
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Dick,

I have long thought that CASA does not want more people flying unless it is in a proper high-capacity airliner. Something they can understand - they have no hope of understanding GA so they would rather it didn't exist
You’d be surprised.

When part 61 came into force a couple of years’ ago the airlines (and the FOI’s who inspected them) were astonished to learn that the whole of part 61 was written for GA. It included zero understanding of the way airlines run check and training. This has caused quite a lot of disruption to airline check and training, and is currently not scheduled to be resolved until mid 2019.
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Old 4th Feb 2018, 12:00
  #128 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Derfred View Post
Dick,



You’d be surprised.

When part 61 came into force a couple of years’ ago the airlines (and the FOI’s who inspected them) were astonished to learn that the whole of part 61 was written for GA. It included zero understanding of the way airlines run check and training. This has caused quite a lot of disruption to airline check and training, and is currently not scheduled to be resolved until mid 2019.
Derfred, it might of been written with GA in mind but they didn't get it right, even for GA. It is a total dogs-breakfast.

I heard an interesting comment the other day, albeit third hand. A FAA inspector was talking to an Australian airport inspector and said that he wished the FAA would adopt the NZ legislation. It was everything they had been trying to do but were stymied due to political pressure. Incidentally, the NZ legislation has been adopted by most of our Pacific brethren and we gave foreign aid to PNG so that they could adopt the NZ legislation as well.
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Old 4th Feb 2018, 17:03
  #129 (permalink)  
 
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It is a total dogs-breakfast
Yeah, the most expensive dogs-breakfast I ever saw.
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Old 4th Feb 2018, 23:28
  #130 (permalink)  
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Additional safety is marginal

Here is an interesting answer to the question from a professional pilot:

https://www.quora.com/Are-4-engine-p...-engine-planes

The additional safety from four engines is marginal, but it is still there – that is, four engines are safer if the aircraft are of the equivalent most modern, latest certification standards.

I also found this quote from a professional pilot:

“The engines are very reliable these days, so the chance of even one of them stop functioning is low.

Four engined airplanes are more expensive to maintain and even to buy than twin engine airplanes. This is not what airlines want, they want an airplane that is very economical and reliable because it is a business and business is always about making profits.”
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Old 4th Feb 2018, 23:31
  #131 (permalink)  
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Mikewil, yes here is an example. This is what the British CAA Act says:

‘To secure that British airlines provide air transport services which satisfy … public demand at the lowest charges consistent with a high standard of safety in operating the services and an economic return to efficient operators … and with securing the sound development of the civil air transport industry in the UK.
As you can see, their statement clearly reflects that companies need to be viable to be safe.

No lies about the most important consideration being safety!

Last edited by Dick Smith; 5th Feb 2018 at 02:01.
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Old 4th Feb 2018, 23:56
  #132 (permalink)  
 
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Dick, that quora reply is from Tim Morgan - a web designer who holds a ME CPL and as far as I can tell never flown a jet. Hardly the expert to pontificate on the relative safety of 2 vs 4.

And the second quote is from a first officer from a small Indian Ocean island country of less than two years airline experience.

Last edited by compressor stall; 5th Feb 2018 at 00:14.
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Old 5th Feb 2018, 01:02
  #133 (permalink)  
 
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Dick Smith, rather than sourcing your arguement from Quora, why don't you try one of the other regulators, EASA: AMC 20-6 rev. 2
Extended Range Operation with Two-Engine Aeroplanes ETOPS Certification and
Operation



I welcome a critique of the certification specifications.

Have a good read of that document, especially the rationale behind ETOPS maximum diversion time based on in-service Inflight Shutdown Rate (IFSD) - this is what determines the maximum ETOPS time interval, a probability based assessment.
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Old 5th Feb 2018, 01:28
  #134 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SRM View Post
Over 50 years in aviation and 12500 hrs worldwide.
Engine Shutdowns
2 Engines nil
3 Engines 1
4 Engines 2

Based on my experience I would say that twin engine aircraft are very reliable, engine wise.

SRM
There you go, Your experience shows the folly of believing that 4 engines are always going to be safer than two, and if old mate engineer drives to and from the airport, then his argument is null and void.
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Old 5th Feb 2018, 01:33
  #135 (permalink)  
 
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Dick, unfortunately Quora really shouldn't be treated as a key source of expertise as it lets anyone answer any questions, with the only requirement being a real name for their username (which can be faked). There's the ability to upvote answers or writers, which helps to some degree but there's still no real guarantee of accuracy - as you've seen, anyone with a CPL can list themselves as an expert, and if you look through some of the military questions the answers are clearly written by people who get their expertise through Call of Duty on the XBox - some of them are also still in their early teens, which seems a bit young to have their claimed years of special forces combat experience

There's also quite a few "experts" who write authoritatively on numerous topics, listing their expertise in fields that would take several lifetimes to accumulate...the Special Forces soldier/CIA agent with the expertise in nuclear weapons, hand to hand combat, billion-dollar business administration, submarine warfare and computer hacking...luckily that's entirely unlike any Rumour Networks for Profeshionull Pilots!
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Old 5th Feb 2018, 01:57
  #136 (permalink)  
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Two Years in the Aviation Hall of Doom - Metro III

Here is a link to Chapter 5 in Two Years in the Aviation Hall of Doom that covers the relevant issue about the Metro III. In fact, Max Hazelton had a Beech 1900 sitting in the Hawker hangar for over 8 months as they were trying to modify it to comply with the unique Australian rules. It was only when my Board approved the first of type from five countries that this aircraft was allowed to operate – and indeed, further improvements came in that allowed more people to fly, such as ETOPS.

Have a read and cry about the fact that we are now back where we were then in the Two Years in the Aviation Hall of Doom days. Just look at the recent CASA class G ARP or whatever it is now called.

Last edited by Dick Smith; 5th Feb 2018 at 02:21.
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Old 5th Feb 2018, 02:03
  #137 (permalink)  
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Compressor. Looks as if he has loads of commonsense!
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Old 5th Feb 2018, 02:16
  #138 (permalink)  
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Curtain. Very strange. Why would there be extra restrictions placed on two engined aircraft if they are as safe as three or four engined?

Now that’s a difficult one to answer.
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Old 5th Feb 2018, 03:31
  #139 (permalink)  
 
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Curtain. Very strange. Why would there be extra restrictions placed on two engined aircraft if they are as safe as three or four engined?
To ensure equivalence of safety.

You can have four engines maintained to a lesser standard, or two to a higher standard. Manufacturers & airlines concluded the best overall cost optimisation for equivalent safety or better was to go with the twinjet system.

One large operator used to take the engine cores from an ETOPS twin once it went out of spec and then install it on it's four engine aircraft.

In 400+ sectors on a four engine jet, I had 3 inflight shutdowns. I've spent 9 hours in cruise across the pacific on 3 engines. In 4,500+ sectors on a twinjet, I've never had an engine miss a beat, never.

So, about the Certification Specifications critique...

Last edited by CurtainTwitcher; 5th Feb 2018 at 03:41.
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Old 5th Feb 2018, 04:57
  #140 (permalink)  
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Thanks Curtain. Personally I have always been comfortable with the decisions made internationally in relation to certification standards.

That’s why I was instrumental in the introduction of CAA acceptance of first of type from the five leading countries.

The problem I have is with 9a of the act. It would be great to have the act reflect what CASA often does in practice.
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