So you need a new fleet Leigh?
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"It Is Difficult to Get a Man to Understand Something When His Salary Depends Upon His Not Understanding It"
-- Upton Sinclair (disputed)
-- Upton Sinclair (disputed)
Nunc est bibendum
Given the small numbers involved a raw statistic can be somewhat misleading. There are currently two F/Os in the training system upgrading from S/O. They alone represent 33% of the numbers of F/Os upgrading this year (so far).
If six of eight A330 F/O’s failed to upgrade after sitting as A330 F/O’s for many years, then it is definitely a systemic problem in my mind. Highly unlikely that 6 of 8 have had and maintained the technical skills required for many years but quietly lacked the non- tech elements necessary for command.
What, 75% course fail rate? Ie. Sent back to so?
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If six of eight A330 F/O’s failed to upgrade after sitting as A330 F/O’s for many years, then it is definitely a systemic problem in my mind. Highly unlikely that 6 of 8 have had and maintained the technical skills required for many years but quietly lacked the non- tech elements necessary for command.
Difficult to keep a good eye for landings sitting in the back for so many years due to “the lost decade” without doing some sport aviation.
Perhaps Qantas needs some training jets doing freight work or the like for currency like in the 70s.
Rated De, I’m curious to know what you actually expect or want Qantas to do from a fleet point of view beyond your oft repeated tag-line.
Qantas have now announced the retirement of their 747 fleet. The fleet will wind down as the cheaply hedged fuel runs out in ~18 months.
They are being replaced by a fuel efficient twin, the 787-9. Less capacity but higher yield and more profit.
The A330 fleet is not the latest generation but is still a competitive aircraft in all the markets it is flown to and the average age is 11 years old. The 787 is its natural replacement and Qantas have options and production slots for many more of them.
The A380 has an average age of 8 years old. As Malaysian Airlines and the Dr Peters Group (owners of Singapore’s initial A380’s) have found, there is virtually NO second hand market for used A380’s. Qantas are not about to just junk a multi billion dollar asset that has not been full depreciated. Not to mention, passengers love them and there are niche market routes for which the A380 is well suited in limited numbers, just ask Lufthansa, Air France, BA, Asiana, Singapore Airlines, Etihad, Qatar, Korean, ANA, Thai, etc. In time it will likely be replaced with whatever type is used for the Project Sunrise concept (A350 or 777X) but not for another 10 years.
The 737 has an average age of 10 years and Qantas have said that they are economic to keep in the fleet until the individual airframe is appx. 20-24 years old due to their impressive reliability. Fuel burn savings achieved by a MAX are not as relevant in the domestic sphere and importantly, at this stage, there is no domestic competitor operating a more fuel efficient fleet.
Qantas has also announced it is planning to order a new ultra long range twin aircraft in 2019 to perform its Project Sunrise mission and there are still dozens more 787-9’s options that can be converted to firm orders as and when progress payments fall due.
So what exactly do you expect to happen??
Like all Qantas pilots I wish we had ordered a whole stack of 777’s a decade ago, the airline and our careers would be in a lot better shape now if we had. I’d also like it if Qantas had bottomless pockets and could just order 100 next-gen widebody aircraft and rely on the state to pay the bill because it was good for nation building but that is not our reality.
The fleet plan is sometimes painfully slow, shrouded in secrecy and certainly not as ambitious as I would like, but it is there. In 2020 the fleet will compromise of A380’s, A330’s, 787’s and 738’s with options for more 787’s and orders for a 777X or A350. Where specifically do you see that a radical and realistic change is required?
Qantas have now announced the retirement of their 747 fleet. The fleet will wind down as the cheaply hedged fuel runs out in ~18 months.
They are being replaced by a fuel efficient twin, the 787-9. Less capacity but higher yield and more profit.
The A330 fleet is not the latest generation but is still a competitive aircraft in all the markets it is flown to and the average age is 11 years old. The 787 is its natural replacement and Qantas have options and production slots for many more of them.
The A380 has an average age of 8 years old. As Malaysian Airlines and the Dr Peters Group (owners of Singapore’s initial A380’s) have found, there is virtually NO second hand market for used A380’s. Qantas are not about to just junk a multi billion dollar asset that has not been full depreciated. Not to mention, passengers love them and there are niche market routes for which the A380 is well suited in limited numbers, just ask Lufthansa, Air France, BA, Asiana, Singapore Airlines, Etihad, Qatar, Korean, ANA, Thai, etc. In time it will likely be replaced with whatever type is used for the Project Sunrise concept (A350 or 777X) but not for another 10 years.
The 737 has an average age of 10 years and Qantas have said that they are economic to keep in the fleet until the individual airframe is appx. 20-24 years old due to their impressive reliability. Fuel burn savings achieved by a MAX are not as relevant in the domestic sphere and importantly, at this stage, there is no domestic competitor operating a more fuel efficient fleet.
Qantas has also announced it is planning to order a new ultra long range twin aircraft in 2019 to perform its Project Sunrise mission and there are still dozens more 787-9’s options that can be converted to firm orders as and when progress payments fall due.
So what exactly do you expect to happen??
Like all Qantas pilots I wish we had ordered a whole stack of 777’s a decade ago, the airline and our careers would be in a lot better shape now if we had. I’d also like it if Qantas had bottomless pockets and could just order 100 next-gen widebody aircraft and rely on the state to pay the bill because it was good for nation building but that is not our reality.
The fleet plan is sometimes painfully slow, shrouded in secrecy and certainly not as ambitious as I would like, but it is there. In 2020 the fleet will compromise of A380’s, A330’s, 787’s and 738’s with options for more 787’s and orders for a 777X or A350. Where specifically do you see that a radical and realistic change is required?
Be still my beating heart.
I don’t know about you BB, but I’m growing tired of plans. I’d like to see some orders.
November is 10 years since Joyce become CEO.
ZERO orders for mainline in that time. Oh, but we have had Jetstar HK, RedQ, billion dollar losses, a grounding, terminal decline, AJ going cap-in-hand to the govt for a multi-billion unsecured loan, the splitting of the AOC’s, more CEO’s, less CEO’s and an amazing recovery that just so happened to deliver millions in LTIP benefits (it’s not share price manipulation, but I reckon you could see it from there...)
AND NOW! after faffing around for 10 years while the fleet got older and older, all of a sudden they’ve been caught with their pants down and are blaming pilots for the angst of the the board.
What a joke.
I don’t know about you BB, but I’m growing tired of plans. I’d like to see some orders.
November is 10 years since Joyce become CEO.
ZERO orders for mainline in that time. Oh, but we have had Jetstar HK, RedQ, billion dollar losses, a grounding, terminal decline, AJ going cap-in-hand to the govt for a multi-billion unsecured loan, the splitting of the AOC’s, more CEO’s, less CEO’s and an amazing recovery that just so happened to deliver millions in LTIP benefits (it’s not share price manipulation, but I reckon you could see it from there...)
AND NOW! after faffing around for 10 years while the fleet got older and older, all of a sudden they’ve been caught with their pants down and are blaming pilots for the angst of the the board.
What a joke.
Nunc est bibendum
If six of eight A330 F/O’s failed to upgrade after sitting as A330 F/O’s for many years, then it is definitely a systemic problem in my mind. Highly unlikely that 6 of 8 have had and maintained the technical skills required for many years but quietly lacked the non- tech elements necessary for command.
Nunc est bibendum
Goodonyamate, I’m pretty up to speed on the numbers and very aware of the sensitivities of the issue so I’m trying to be delicate and respectful of my colleagues whilst still trying to provide some input to the discussion.
There are at least two still in the training system. That takes the total numbers this year of A330 F/O upgrades who have commenced sim training to 6.
I’m not privy to why the stats are what they are for the first 4 and I suspect neither are most other PPRUNE contributors. I hope all involved in this discussion though are cognisant of that point and continue to show respect for our colleagues and their well-being.
There are multiple ways to solve the issue and knowing some of the personalities involved I’m sure they’re looking at a number of different strategies. I’d just hate to see a blunt tool such as ‘compulsory 737’ used to solve what can be a very nuanced and personal issue.
There are at least two still in the training system. That takes the total numbers this year of A330 F/O upgrades who have commenced sim training to 6.
I’m not privy to why the stats are what they are for the first 4 and I suspect neither are most other PPRUNE contributors. I hope all involved in this discussion though are cognisant of that point and continue to show respect for our colleagues and their well-being.
There are multiple ways to solve the issue and knowing some of the personalities involved I’m sure they’re looking at a number of different strategies. I’d just hate to see a blunt tool such as ‘compulsory 737’ used to solve what can be a very nuanced and personal issue.
I don’t know about you BB, but I’m growing tired of plans. I’d like to see some orders.
November is 10 years since Joyce become CEO.
ZERO orders for mainline in that time. Oh, but we have had Jetstar HK, RedQ, billion dollar losses, a grounding, terminal decline, AJ going cap-in-hand to the govt for a multi-billion unsecured loan, the splitting of the AOC’s, more CEO’s, less CEO’s and an amazing recovery that just so happened to deliver millions in LTIP benefits (it’s not share price manipulation, but I reckon you could see it from there...)
November is 10 years since Joyce become CEO.
ZERO orders for mainline in that time. Oh, but we have had Jetstar HK, RedQ, billion dollar losses, a grounding, terminal decline, AJ going cap-in-hand to the govt for a multi-billion unsecured loan, the splitting of the AOC’s, more CEO’s, less CEO’s and an amazing recovery that just so happened to deliver millions in LTIP benefits (it’s not share price manipulation, but I reckon you could see it from there...)
But FINALLY some of those orders are becoming deliveries. Not as many as I’d like, I think we should be expanding the fleet not just maintaining current levels. Yet a fleet renewal is happening and the talk is about what new types and routes are next as opposed to all we used to hear was what route is to be cut next.
So the cry of “Qantas need a new fleet” has been entirely justified for the last 10 years but I’m just surprised it is reaching a crescendo just as it seems a new fleet is materialising.
Nunc est bibendum
Well we have actually expanded the fleet in terms of flying hours. Both the A330 and 737 have increased flying hours over the last few years in the vicinity of 20%. Therein is part of the issue of why we’ve only announced 6 additional 787s and not 8. We simply can’t push the crews through quick enough to maintain services. I’d bet money there are more 787s coming to possibly expand but we need to be able to crew the aeroplanes.
Sorry Keg and others, I misinterpreted Dragons post below to mean that F/O’s upgrading to Captain were at 25% pass rate. If I understand now it is SO’s upgrading to F/O who have the 25% pass rate and that is much easier to understand what with the lack of flying etc.
Pass rate for FO upgrade on the 330 at the moment is 25%, yes 25%. FOs upgrading to command on the 737 been given 2 months off.
Well we have actually expanded the fleet in terms of flying hours. Both the A330 and 737 have increased flying hours over the last few years in the vicinity of 20%. Therein is part of the issue of why we’ve only announced 6 additional 787s and not 8. We simply can’t push the crews through quick enough to maintain services. I’d bet money there are more 787s coming to possibly expand but we need to be able to crew the aeroplanes.
Those 787 orders, ( and I think we can assume there won’t be any coming sooner) Take the orders out to mid/perhaps 2020?
Qantas has shrunk to profitabliity. It’s now focused on yield, and putting 1000$ airfares on Emirates/China Eastern.
5 years ago most of us were not sure we’d even be around in 2020
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The problem with SO to A330 FO Conversion is that Qantas give no consideration to the fact that SO’s haven’t effectively flown for many years. They do a bog standard A330 conversion, there is no extra sim sessions concentrating on normal operations in the circuit, really working on that last 1000 feet. When I did mine, there was also a high failure rate, probably same reasons. Thise who failed were sent to 330 SO, what use is that. All that is needed in 2-3 sessions working on approach technique.
[QUOTE][The problem with SO to A330 FO Conversion is that Qantas give no consideration to the fact that SO’s haven’t effectively flown for many years./QUOTE]
Not many years? you are looking around 15 odd years for some in the backseat of the 744 who are choosing to upgrade now.. You have new hires joining the company that are more qualified and recent for an upgrade.
There is a problem with the promotional system in Qantas when a pilot can wait this long before upgrading. I get the personal choice and circumstances argument, but sitting in the easy seat and riding the gravy train for that long you are setting yourself up for a difficult time. You would think an airline like Qantas would make allowances for this.
I realize things have been stagnant but pilots of this seniority could have had the opportunity to upgrade years ago as there has been opportunities (737, 767!, LWOP,Jetstar MOU) for pilots , admittedly maybe not a widebody FO but don’t we join an airline to fly?
I feel for the difficult time these pilots are going through, but they have been set up by the promotional and award system we work under. It’s something both the company and AIPA need to look into, because it’s going to happen a lot of training of SO’s with similar seniority increases.
oh and I’m happy we are starting to get a new fleet...slowly
Not many years? you are looking around 15 odd years for some in the backseat of the 744 who are choosing to upgrade now.. You have new hires joining the company that are more qualified and recent for an upgrade.
There is a problem with the promotional system in Qantas when a pilot can wait this long before upgrading. I get the personal choice and circumstances argument, but sitting in the easy seat and riding the gravy train for that long you are setting yourself up for a difficult time. You would think an airline like Qantas would make allowances for this.
I realize things have been stagnant but pilots of this seniority could have had the opportunity to upgrade years ago as there has been opportunities (737, 767!, LWOP,Jetstar MOU) for pilots , admittedly maybe not a widebody FO but don’t we join an airline to fly?
I feel for the difficult time these pilots are going through, but they have been set up by the promotional and award system we work under. It’s something both the company and AIPA need to look into, because it’s going to happen a lot of training of SO’s with similar seniority increases.
oh and I’m happy we are starting to get a new fleet...slowly
Just to clarify; you don't get back to SO for failing one Sim. 999s are used prolifically to keep trainees on course
You have new hires joining the company that are more qualified and recent for an upgrade.