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So you need a new fleet Leigh?

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So you need a new fleet Leigh?

Old 11th Oct 2019, 06:16
  #1201 (permalink)  
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will next year be looking to place an order for an additional 75 aircraft with either Boeing or France-based Airbus.
Some sort of record, so much "looking" over twelve years and yet not a solitary order.
Other airline management simply scratches its head and gets on with it.
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Old 11th Oct 2019, 07:02
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I'm curious why you think that Qantas should have ordered more aircraft by now. Do you think that there are aircraft, currently in service, that Qantas should already have replaced (other than the 747-400s and ERs, which are on the way out)? Or, do you believe that Qantas will be unable to secure delivery slots to replace part of their fleet before it becomes uncompetitive - and if so, which part?

The reason I'm asking is because Qantas is highly profitable domestically, indicating that its narrowbody fleet is competitive with VA. And, although some of the fleet is aging, none of it is plainly at or approaching retirement age yet. Similarly, QFi is doing better than most of its regional competitors and, other than the 747s, none of its fleet obviously needs to be retired yet. So, unless I'm missing something, the main questions are whether QF:
  • should have begun replacing parts of its fleet several years before the end of its commercial life (for a Western, full service carrier), and taken any depreciation charges as a result, or
  • is likely to be unable to secure delivery slots to begin replacing its regional, 737 and A330 fleets in the next few years - given that it has orders for A320neos and 787s, and the A220 and E2 orderbooks are pretty thin, that doesn't seem likely.
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Old 12th Oct 2019, 12:09
  #1203 (permalink)  
 
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From the original

From the original Plastic fantastic,

I don't know what this new guy is saying, nor do I care but, it ain't me.

Please find another name.
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Old 12th Oct 2019, 12:30
  #1204 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Plastic fantastic View Post
From the original Plastic fantastic,

I don't know what this new guy is saying, nor do I care but, it ain't me.

Please find another name.
Sorry! Didn't mean to steal your name. Shall do.
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Old 12th Oct 2019, 18:29
  #1205 (permalink)  
 
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"I'm curious why you think that Qantas should have ordered more aircraft by now"

1. Pilots love new aeroplanes - just like spotters (and aircraft manufacturers)

2. New types mean retraining - which adds interest & skills

3. New types means you can try and extort extra cash

4. You can hold up your head with those who have shiny new new types rather the being the girl/guy at the BBQ who has to admit they're flying an airframe that's older than they are.......

I agree with PF (new) - if you are making money why would you take on more debt etc just to have a shiny out of the box fleet? Pay yourself more, retire the debt you have , pay the shareholders and even throw a bone to the whining mob who fly the things
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Old 12th Oct 2019, 23:56
  #1206 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Asturias56 View Post
"I'm curious why you think that Qantas should have ordered more aircraft by now"

1. Pilots love new aeroplanes - just like spotters (and aircraft manufacturers)

2. New types mean retraining - which adds interest & skills

3. New types means you can try and extort extra cash

4. You can hold up your head with those who have shiny new new types rather the being the girl/guy at the BBQ who has to admit they're flying an airframe that's older than they are.......

I agree with PF (new) - if you are making money why would you take on more debt etc just to have a shiny out of the box fleet? Pay yourself more, retire the debt you have , pay the shareholders and even throw a bone to the whining mob who fly the things

Alternatvely:

1. Many pilots are over the age of 12, and realise that a jet is just a tube with some wings & engines. I think most QF 767 and 747 drivers would’ve been very happy for them not to be retired. New jets are nice, but other things are more important.

2. Who honestly wants to do yet another training course?

3. ‘New types mean you can try and extort extra cash’ - what, like the 30% productivity that was given up on the 787? And note that Tino says he wants even more concessions beyond that 30%, if he’s to buy any more 787s. There may be extortion going on here, but it’s not from the pilots.

4. See 1.

So why take on debt for a shiny new fleet? Because your existing fleet burns a heap more fuel than more modern alternatives. Because your existing fleet starts costing a lot of money to keep in the air, and may eventually just run out of cycles and hours. And because eventually your passengers might notice that your competition is flying stuff that isn’t 20 or 30 years old. But by all means hang onto your ageing fleet and use the money on share buybacks, $24 million CEO salaries, and to pay QF Angels to write sh1t on the internet. It just mightn’t be the healthiest choice in the long term.

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Old 13th Oct 2019, 00:15
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It’s not that hard, best post ever
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Old 13th Oct 2019, 05:01
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The main reason that QF pilots want to management to buy some new airplanes is to stop the continuous shrinking of the airline since the bullying Irishman started running the company.
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Old 13th Oct 2019, 05:34
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Originally Posted by Going Boeing View Post
The main reason that QF pilots want to management to buy some new airplanes is to stop the continuous shrinking of the airline since the bullying Irishman started running the company.
I thought you wrote ruining the company, or is that what you meant?
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Old 13th Oct 2019, 12:35
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Originally Posted by V-Jet View Post
I thought you wrote ruining the company, or is that what you meant?
Brilliant!
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Old 14th Oct 2019, 06:32
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Originally Posted by Asturias56 View Post
"I'm curious why you think that Qantas should have ordered more aircraft by now"

1. Pilots love new aeroplanes - just like spotters (and aircraft manufacturers)

2. New types mean retraining - which adds interest & skills

3. New types means you can try and extort extra cash

4. You can hold up your head with those who have shiny new new types rather the being the girl/guy at the BBQ who has to admit they're flying an airframe that's older than they are.......

I agree with PF (new) - if you are making money why would you take on more debt etc just to have a shiny out of the box fleet? Pay yourself more, retire the debt you have , pay the shareholders and even throw a bone to the whining mob who fly the things
1. Pilots hate new aeroplanes. Especially swapping manufacturers. Just ask a 747 guy how they feel about going to the Airbus. Many would rather retire. And are.

New aeroplanes mean 6 months offline, away from the family holed up in a room somewhere cramming, probing, being examined and scored. You become a broken man at some point during the process. It also becomes harder and harder the older you get.

2. See above.

3. Yep. B scales tend to do that. Or the company can hold your conditions to ransom and threaten any chance of a career or promotion if you don’t play nicely with their train set.

4. Most pilots would prefer to say they fly the 747 classic or a Mad dog at a BBQ. It’s much more purist and interesting to fly.

5. You’re obviously not a pilot.

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Old 14th Oct 2019, 07:16
  #1212 (permalink)  
 
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Thumbs up

Originally Posted by Asturias56 View Post
"I'm curious why you think that Qantas should have ordered more aircraft by now"

1. Pilots love new aeroplanes - just like spotters (and aircraft manufacturers)

2. New types mean retraining - which adds interest & skills

3. New types means you can try and extort extra cash

4. You can hold up your head with those who have shiny new new types rather the being the girl/guy at the BBQ who has to admit they're flying an airframe that's older than they are.......

I agree with PF (new) - if you are making money why would you take on more debt etc just to have a shiny out of the box fleet? Pay yourself more, retire the debt you have , pay the shareholders and even throw a bone to the whining mob who fly the things
Extorting cash- is that sort of kinda like share buy back? OR getting paid $495K a week? You are just another Angel completely out of your depth.
its not that hard and blue sky- great posts
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Old 15th Oct 2019, 11:35
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Interesting.... most of the responses to my post are saying pilots prefer older aeroplanes

But the bulk of the thread is about the need for QF to buy a new fleet.........

hard to have it both ways.....................
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Old 15th Oct 2019, 11:47
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Originally Posted by Asturias56 View Post
Interesting.... most of the responses to my post are saying pilots prefer older aeroplanes

But the bulk of the thread is about the need for QF to buy a new fleet.........

hard to have it both ways.....................
QANTAS need to buy a new fleet for the business - for the efficiencies new aeroplanes can offer. Not for the pilots. It’s really pretty simple - which bit confuses you?
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Old 15th Oct 2019, 13:03
  #1215 (permalink)  
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That an airline generates operating revenue from flying RTK from A to B ought to be self-evident.Doing so efficiently ought to mean that the cost to the shareholder and indeed the environment is minimised. After all Qantas have made a big noise about bio-fuel purchases, removing plastic cutlery and optimised flight plans. The total “savings” in fuel consumption, expense and CO2 the cost of a few weeks’ transits across the Pacific.The rest of the year Qantas burn more fuel per seat, per passenger than their competitors. Fortunately, fuel is, at the present time, relatively cheap. However, all airlines benefit from cheap fuel. Such that the question ought to be asked whether the fuel spend per passenger RPK is higher or lower than competitors: It is substantially higher. As is the output of CO2, fortunately for the likes of Qantas there is no price on excess emission. As the ICCT reported Qantas spend 64% more generating their RPK across the Pacific than their competitors. That is some “transformation”

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-...-study/9333616

The original statements made by the long retired and almost completely forgotten relic, Leigh Clifford claimed that the QSA 1992 made re-equipment hard. Around AUD$2.5 billion and counting was spent buying back shares. Strange that no better use for capital could be found than enriching insiders like CEO and top 20 shareholder, Alan Joseph Joyce. It is the fleet metrics that start to tell a story of waste. This is the point UBS referred to and the fund manager, Mr Montgomery highlighted. Just to keep the fleet age where it is (and provision for increasing maintenance and ageing aircraft issues) requires a capital expenditure of AUD $1.7 billion per year. Reducing the fleet age back to what the taxpayer gifted them at privatisation will require a very large capital expenditure.

In addition to benefitting from cheaper fuel, cash flows have also been boosted by a strategy that has allowed the fleet to age. The most expensive part of running an airline is replacing old cheap planes with newer and more expensive models. Airlines cannot escape this capital expenditure lest passengers jump to competing airlines with fancier entertainment offerings and more comfortable seats, bars and beds. You can call it a disciplined approach to capital spending or you could say the board might prefer to see the share price go up now, maximise share price-related incentives for current management and leave the reality of replacing planes to the next guy.
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wire...ext-for-qantas



So:
  • · A mid-late life A330 fleet
  • · A to be retired B747 fleet
  • · A B737 fleet where the oldest aircraft are 17-18 years old.
  • · An A380 fleet of debatable book value.
Of course more expenditure on fleet for JQ could be undertaken, although the revenue generated for a segment as large as the parent indicates that the business is well over scale: ASK flown versus revenue generated is horrible! Little Napoleon claimed he could spend more on Frequent Flyer instead of fleet. Hard to imagine what tangible value a Frequent Flyer business has without an airline.
How big is the required CAP EX? $15-$20 billion? How long does it take to scope, order and find a slot then take delivery of a new fleet?
Does the company issue new equity or continue to gear the company?
Are there production slots?

That Little Napoleon spend his time with social discourse and social engineering while the fleet over which he has presided for 11 years continues to burn more hydrocarbon fuel than necessary, emitting more CO2 than competitors while costing the shareholders more per flight than the competitors is hardly transformative. It is at best negligent.

Someone is going to have to spend the money, Qantas need a fuel efficient and lower emitting fleet.
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Old 21st Oct 2019, 02:28
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Any further update on what is going to replace the B744 on JNB?
With the B789 starting SFO in December 19 and SCL in June 20 are we likely to see a SYD B789 base open anytime soon?
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Old 21st Oct 2019, 02:35
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Rumour has it....

...that the 787 SYD base will be announced with the next round of vacancies. Available for bidding in Apr-May (approx) to open in July. Timed to coincide with the 744 RIN.
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Old 23rd Oct 2019, 02:29
  #1218 (permalink)  
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See what happens when you have fleet...

Once again Fort Fumble, lacking fleet capacity and strategy drift ever closer to the lee shore. Little Napoleon resplendent in his dress uniform, stands proudly on the poop deck holding the tiller of the rudderless ship...

https://www.smh.com.au/business/comp...23-p533bl.html
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Old 30th Oct 2019, 10:39
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Alan gives the ‘thumbs up’ to the A220. ‘Even the toilets are big’ he quotes...

https://australianaviation.com.au/20...the-thumbs-up/
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Old 30th Oct 2019, 10:48
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Originally Posted by T-Vasis View Post
Alan gives the ‘thumbs up’ to the A220. ‘Even the toilets are big’ he quotes...

https://australianaviation.com.au/20...the-thumbs-up/
lol “even the toilets are big” is code for let’s throw in another row of seats.
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