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So you need a new fleet Leigh?

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So you need a new fleet Leigh?

Old 18th Jul 2019, 05:20
  #1081 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
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Originally Posted by knobbycobby View Post
sorry who else does close to 24 hour tours of duty leaving at night? Youíll be up all day then do 23-24 hours at work to end up 12 hours out of your time zone in london.
Thats all youíll do.
Strange that every other airline just orders aircraft.
Never seen pilot eas as the stumbling block.
If you want to do something thatís currently not legal because itís unsafe and illegal you canít expect an exemption and worse conditions to do more hazardous work.
Whats alan and the executive team doing to get this over the line.
Not their multi million dollar bonuses.
He can go and shove it. Order it or donít but stop crying wolf whilst you make billions and pay yourself millions.
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Old 18th Jul 2019, 09:17
  #1082 (permalink)  
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Regulators will need to be convinced crewing rosters will not lead to pilot fatigue and therefore be a threat to safety. “We are saying the current arrangement [with pilots] does not work so we need an efficiency change,” Joyce said.
What precisely is not efficient Little Napoleon?
The current regulations limit TOD for reasons of health and safety.

Preceding any attempt to deem the process safe, a longitudinal study of extended duration would be needed to scientifically validate the safety or otherwise of extending TOD limits.
That no such study is proposed is a tell. Given the past President of AIPA enjoys his IR negotiator status, why not try the same thing again on another junior pilot with stars in his eyes?

A little implied threat here, bully there and use the media to harass employee groups and carry the message.
Something that the airline industry's most 'inclusive' leader excels at.

A 4 foot 10 inch bully.

Last edited by Rated De; 18th Jul 2019 at 12:37.
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Old 18th Jul 2019, 21:41
  #1083 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Rated De View Post

That no such study is proposed is a tell. Given the past President of AIPA enjoys his IR negotiator status, why not try the same thing again on another junior pilot with stars in his eyes
Didnít QF parade around the fact that it had commenced some sort of super study with Monash university regarding ULH flying?

Not saying that AJs looking after anyone here, just want to know if theres any word from this??
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Old 18th Jul 2019, 23:03
  #1084 (permalink)  
 
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Sign up quick boys and girls or you will lose the opportunity of the century.
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Old 18th Jul 2019, 23:08
  #1085 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2018
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The issue that Rated D mentions is that there is NO study of SYD/MEL flights leaving at night flying for 23 hour plus Tours of Duty to London.
A lot of the Monash study was on MEL-LAX a much shorter tour of duty, only 5 hours time zone change and both sectors left day time body clock.
Scientifically itís not valid or of very poor validity.
No study has been done as itís been considered to be unsafe, unwise and hence illegal.
Any study has to be of an equivalent tour of duty AND be long lasting. You may have to do it for many years.
Joyce shouldnít be able to do it period. Let alone do it with worse protections for crews health.


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Old 19th Jul 2019, 09:38
  #1086 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Maggie Island View Post


Didn’t QF parade around the fact that it had commenced some sort of super study with Monash university regarding ULH flying?

Not saying that AJs looking after anyone here, just want to know if theres any word from this??
The "study" to which you refer was in advance of the inaugural Perth London flight, during which data would be collected from "selected passengers".

Research design requires very specific sampling techniques.
This does not meet the benchmark.

A select group of passengers will wear medical research grade and clinically approved wearable devices that contain algorithms that record physical activity/sleep and posture changes. The devices will collect data throughout the entire flight.
Thus, one ought ask the University of Sydney about their research design, including how passengers were selected?
Also, in order to understand sample bias, it is pertinent to actually research before and after flight for an extended period.
Note that the crew are not included.

Note also that Little Napoleon wants longer TOD, yet it cannot be assumed that jet lag and long term health outcomes for operating crew are linear, they are not.


Qantas in "partnership" with the University is a simple code for "Qantas paid for this research"

As Sir Humphrey Appleby wisely lamented (paraphrasing) " One only has an enquiry, when it knows in advance what the answers will be"

https://sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/n...rtnership.html

Qantas need a new fleet.
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Old 19th Jul 2019, 10:46
  #1087 (permalink)  
 
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Qantas need a new fleet.
Qantas you need a new CEO!
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Old 19th Jul 2019, 17:39
  #1088 (permalink)  
 
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I have seen a study that showed medical diversion increased significantly when the sector length exceeded 13hrs. Airlines spend a lot of money on in-flight medical support to help prevent this where safe to do so. Being crammed in a can ain't a healthy way to live life.
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Old 20th Jul 2019, 07:29
  #1089 (permalink)  
 
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The "study" to which you refer was in advance of the inaugural Perth London flight, during which data would be collected from "selected passengers".
No, the 'study' to which Maggie Island and FightDeck refer is in fact a Monash university study conducted primarily on MEL-LAX-MEL and PER-LHR-PER flights initially amongst A380 and 787 Captains and F/O's and then amongst S/O's as well, collecting data from a few days before departure through to 3 or 4 days after return to their base. The data collected included sleep diary info, psychomotor testing at various stages of the duty and acti-graph data.

As has been alluded to before, this was a joint study with the support of AIPA.

The data collection was completed recently and is now being analysed. Whilst the hope is it will provide some significant recommendations useful to Sunrise planning, it was not exclusively designed with that in mind. Hopefully it will provide a range of recommendations for all of our ULR operations - including (among other things) appropriate crew complements for operations in excess of 20 hours…..
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Old 20th Jul 2019, 08:34
  #1090 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
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I cannot believe the whining on here!

As I’ve stated repeatedly, I knew people who flew the original longest sector on the A340... The ones I knew loved it. Has anyone spoken to the current SQ drivers of EWR? No not 21/23 hours but very close.

Yet again Aussies wanting to recreate the wheel.

22 hours each way... 44 hours return... 2 trips a month...

Ahhhhh toooooooo much time at home will be the issue?

Seriously WTF!
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Old 20th Jul 2019, 09:46
  #1091 (permalink)  
rep
 
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Originally Posted by Global Aviator View Post
I cannot believe the whining on here!

As I’ve stated repeatedly, I knew people who flew the original longest sector on the A340... The ones I knew loved it. Has anyone spoken to the current SQ drivers of EWR? No not 21/23 hours but very close.

Yet again Aussies wanting to recreate the wheel.

22 hours each way... 44 hours return... 2 trips a month...

Ahhhhh toooooooo much time at home will be the issue?

Seriously WTF!
I actually agree with you, but I think you will find the duty period will be closer to 24 hours, 48 hours round trip.

Thats 144 hours hours for 3 trips in 8 weeks. With divisors currently sitting around 140 - 150 hours, I would be quite happy with 3 trips every 8 weeks!
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Old 20th Jul 2019, 10:09
  #1092 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by rep View Post
I actually agree with you, but I think you will find the duty period will be closer to 24 hours, 48 hours round trip.

Thats 144 hours hours for 3 trips in 8 weeks. With divisors currently sitting around 140 - 150 hours, I would be quite happy with 3 trips every 8 weeks!
You donít get paid for the duty period only scheduled block time.
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Old 20th Jul 2019, 11:04
  #1093 (permalink)  
 
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Has anyone spoken to the current SQ drivers of EWR?
For the record, yes I have. And they absolutely hate it.
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Old 20th Jul 2019, 11:24
  #1094 (permalink)  
 
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Yep, I agree with Global Aviator. I’m glad some of the whingers on here don’t run the airline. I’d much rather see new aircraft bought to open up new and exclusive routes rather than sit back and watch other carriers do it so we can study them for a few years to achieve a study the Rated De would find satisfactory.

As C441 posted above and I have previously, there already is a study being conducted on our ULR pilots by experts with input from both Qantas and AIPA.

For people who go on and on about wanting a new fleet you are pretty quick to try and rubbish a plan for where such a fleet would be used.
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Old 20th Jul 2019, 13:44
  #1095 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Beer Baron View Post
Yep, I agree with Global Aviator. Iím glad some of the whingers on here donít run the airline. Iíd much rather see new aircraft bought to open up new and exclusive routes rather than sit back and watch other carriers do it so we can study them for a few years to achieve a study the Rated De would find satisfactory.

As C441 posted above and I have previously, there already is a study being conducted on our ULR pilots by experts with input from both Qantas and AIPA.

For people who go on and on about wanting a new fleet you are pretty quick to try and rubbish a plan for where such a fleet would be used.
On what pay? 787!??
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Old 20th Jul 2019, 21:27
  #1096 (permalink)  
 
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On what pay? 787!??
Ahhhh.... Pay, the magical cure for fatigue.
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Old 20th Jul 2019, 22:19
  #1097 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by C441 View Post
No, the 'study' to which Maggie Island and FightDeck refer is in fact a Monash university study conducted primarily on MEL-LAX-MEL and PER-LHR-PER flights initially amongst A380 and 787 Captains and F/O's and then amongst S/O's as well, collecting data from a few days before departure through to 3 or 4 days after return to their base. The data collected included sleep diary info, psychomotor testing at various stages of the duty and acti-graph data.

As has been alluded to before, this was a joint study with the support of AIPA.

The data collection was completed recently and is now being analysed. Whilst the hope is it will provide some significant recommendations useful to Sunrise planning, it was not exclusively designed with that in mind. Hopefully it will provide a range of recommendations for all of our ULR operations - including (among other things) appropriate crew complements for operations in excess of 20 hours…..
How wide is the sample?
How many observations?
Of what duration is the longitudinal study?
Does AIPA have a statistician?

The problem obvious to anyone familiar with statistical modelling, is any attempt to model/extrapolate from a short duration small sample size "study" is that any result has very limited inference.
Incorrectly specifying the representative sample, too few people in the sample, too few observations for too short a period means the "results" have little application other than as a consulting project.
If health outcomes are what is being "modelled" then this sort of falls well short of benchmark statistical models. Health effects on crew are not linear.

Meaningful inferences are difficult to draw with a limited sample size, few observations and only making observations on a short term basis.
As fatigue is cumulative this "research" ignores the benefit of long term repeated observation.

It looks far more like a consulting project, rather than solid research design.

If the airline and "representatives" really want more solid data, the study would be involve far more observations. Simply put the health outcomes need monitoring for an extended period.

Out of interest, how many pilots and cabin crew does Qantas have Long term sick?
What are the most common diseases?
If the company and representatives really desire a robust study, they could study the long term health outcomes for their crew, versus those of the general population.
With a far larger sample size, years of data, and a general population with which to compare, statistical inferences would actually mean something.
This data exists in all airlines at present, for pilots and cabin crew, but perhaps health outcomes for those involved are not really the focus.

Ignoring the impact long term of cumulative fatigue, which according to the relevant literature is very important when considering long term health, the study itself (given its very short duration) ignores perhaps the most important correlated risk factor for health outcomes: deprivation of quality sleep for extended periods.

Qantas needed a new fleet a long time ago.

Management have no trouble committing billions to JQ fleet renewal, why all the fuss for the parent?
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Old 21st Jul 2019, 01:26
  #1098 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Beer Baron View Post

Ahhhh.... Pay, the magical cure for fatigue.
You naive fool. Answer the question - are you willing to do ULH for 30% less? Welcome to the 787.
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Old 21st Jul 2019, 04:14
  #1099 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Capt Fathom View Post

For the record, yes I have. And they absolutely hate it.
Agree entirely.
Also the SIN A350 crews that currently fly this sector do very few of them. Some donít do any.
They have lots of short range destinations in Asia such as KUL,BKK,HND,HKG and Jakarta. Mumbai in India.
Lots to Australia PER,ADL,MEL,BNE and NZ AKL CHC.
Shorter stuff to Europe Like Moscow and A bit more to Spain BCN, Rome, AMS

So itís nothing like doing exclusively 23 hours back of the clock 12 time zones out with project all night in Qantas.
Ultra range flights(Shorter than Sunrise) are only around 1/20th of Singapores route structure as opposed to 100% for QF.

Not anti the aircraft however what Qantas want to do will be hard flying on the body. If you think 23 hour work days leaving at night is easy then your viewpoint disagrees with the science otherwise it would be legal. Regardless No one has flown it so anyone that says itís easy is full of S$&*.
If your potentially flying this kind of operation for many years consecutively, potentially to 65 and beyond it needs to be safe and sustainable. I believe CASA are of the viewpoint itís not safe as other countries donít allow it. They also wonít allow common endorsements with A330 or 787 so you wonít be able to mix the flying.


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Old 21st Jul 2019, 04:20
  #1100 (permalink)  
 
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Ok go back to my other point, as yes it’s a different world now.

The original longest route by SQ on the A340, a lot of expat guys in the grand days.

Now ask them if they liked it, I think and I maybe wrong but they were pretty much exclusively on that route. The biggest issue was landing recency.

If you mix in other flying then my theory of minimal work does not add up.

However in saying that even with FRMS, new studies, blah blah blah, your FDP will no doubt be more favourable than other regions.

Yes to clarify I have not spoken to any of the current 350 drivers.

What would be interesting would be to see an SQ ULH rooster, now EK that’s a different bowl of fish...
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