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So you need a new fleet Leigh?

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So you need a new fleet Leigh?

Old 24th Apr 2018, 10:35
  #181 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by FYSTI View Post
Believe it or not, this is probably saving them mone, "time off" avoids out of base training allowances. The current record for that would make you jaw drop...

No no, he’s on full allowances.
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Old 24th Apr 2018, 10:43
  #182 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by dragon man
No no, he’s on full allowances.
In that case, your quote is completely appropriate.
Originally Posted by dragon man
The place is rooted
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Old 24th Apr 2018, 11:25
  #183 (permalink)  
 
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Training and recruitment should have started 2&1/2 years before it actually did, but QF management had to ensure their KPI's where achieved.

Article about the Banking Royal Commission by Ross Gittins in today's SMH:
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-...24-p4zbbj.html

Could have been written about QF..management lining their own pockets at the expense of Long Term Strategy and Shareholder Return.
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Old 24th Apr 2018, 12:05
  #184 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Street garbage View Post
Training and recruitment should have started 2&1/2 years before it actually did, but QF management had to ensure their KPI's where achieved.

Article about the Banking Royal Commission by Ross Gittins in today's SMH:
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-...24-p4zbbj.html

Could have been written about QF..management lining their own pockets at the expense of Long Term Strategy and Shareholder Return.
Spot on, everyone is missing the point that what’s happening in the banks is going on nearly everywhere in corporate Australia due to KPIs and cash bonus’s.
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Old 24th Apr 2018, 13:02
  #185 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Street garbage View Post
Training and recruitment should have started 2&1/2 years before it actually did, but QF management had to ensure their KPI's where achieved.

Article about the Banking Royal Commission by Ross Gittins in today's SMH:
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-...24-p4zbbj.html

Could have been written about QF..management lining their own pockets at the expense of Long Term Strategy and Shareholder Return.
This in spades

My first thought on seeing the article
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Old 25th Apr 2018, 02:26
  #186 (permalink)  
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Vividly recall a conversation with a very well connected source who stated that Australia's corporate governance was indeed second best: Second best to the rest of the industrialised world.

It is a very pertinent nexus. The gaps in Corporate Governance have grown. It was a decade or so ago that the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, in the USA arose from extreme examples of what Australia is witnessing in a self regulated banking model: Back self interest every time. Lack of regulation has done nothing. The new ASIC Chair inherits a mess, ASIC's prosecution mix is low risk, mostly civil and obvious is the lack of any action against what would be classed as enviable opposition. Low risk and look the other way. Mr Shipton's pedigree no better than the former, another insider, this time of Goldman Sachs no less. In the UK and the USA the Company code now requires the Executive remuneration to be referenced to the average wage level in the firm. One can appreciate the 'business type lobby groups' are donating furiously to ensure such reference is not a statutory requirement in Australia.

A whisper suggests that this may be extended to reference key performance metrics which are less suspected to manipulation by effervescent CFOs. Australia will enact a raft of penalties after Australia's Enron moment too!

By any measure, Qantas executive management have been focused internally on a war with the staff and short term sugar hits to performance that share buy backs are known for. They have been enboldened by short term incentives and lack of regulatory oversight. That ASIC never blinked when a 'terminal' Qantas was 'transformed' and executives reaped rivers of well timed Option bonuses is testament that the regulator has no appetite for investigation.
In the intervening period, other airlines with strategic management a focus and not self embellishment have re-equipped with fuel efficient twin engine Long range aircraft. Doing so,lowers the CASK and and preserves operating margin for when fuel gets more expensive or demand (and consequently yield) falls.

Qantas got lucky with a fuel price decline.

Qantas still need a new fleet.

Last edited by Rated De; 25th Apr 2018 at 02:36.
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Old 25th Apr 2018, 02:45
  #187 (permalink)  
 
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In 2005 Qantas ordered the first B787s in the World. 45 at $4.1 billion(serious discount) and 20 options at $25 million each and 50 options(free). How many have they taken delivery of? 14 to Jetstar(low yielding low cost carrier) and 8 to mainline. Remember Qantas earns 2.65 times the earnings that Jetstar does! Talk about taking the eye off the ball! Remember they have sold all the Assets to help the bottom line and AJ is the highest paid Airlines Executive in the World. The Airline HAS NOT BEEN TRANSFORMED and whoever comes next faces a huge hurdle of Capex. Maybe it is time to short the QF stock! Corporations in Australia have had it too good for too long. It is not only the Banks and AMP that need looking at. When it looks too good to be true it probably is.

Qantas desperately need a new fleet.
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Old 25th Apr 2018, 03:45
  #188 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by busdriver007 View Post
The Airline HAS NOT BEEN TRANSFORMED and whoever comes next faces a huge hurdle of Capex. Maybe it is time to short the QF stock! .
The problem is AJ still has capital to burn the shorts through buy backs. Executive renumeration is now tied to ASX & global peer relative return performance, thus the buy backs will continue to ensure the hurdles are exceeded, at the expense of CAPEX no matter the long term damage to the business.


From the Qantas Annual Report 2017 , pages 39 & 40
The performance measures for each of the 2015–2017 LTIP (tested at 30 June 2017), 2016–2018 LTIP (to be tested as at 30 June 2018) and 2017–2019 LTIP (to be tested as at 30 June 2019) are: —The relative TSR of Qantas compared to companies with ordinary shares included in the ASX100 —The relative TSR of Qantas compared to Global Listed Airlines These Rights will only vest in full if Qantas’ TSR performance ranks at or above the 75th percentile compared to both the ASX100 and the Global Listed Airlines peer groups. At the end of the performance period, the TSR performance of Qantas and each comparator company will be determined based on the average closing shares price over the final 6 months of the performance period. Qantas’ Financial Framework also targets top quartile TSR performance relative to ASX100 companies and global airline peers and therefore relative TSR performance against these peer groups has been chosen as the performance measure for the LTIP. The peer groups selected provide a comparison of relative shareholder returns relevant to most Qantas investors: —The ASX100 peer group was chosen for relevance to investors with a primary interest in the equity market for major Australian listed companies, of which Qantas is one —The Global Listed Airlines peer group was chosen for relevance to investors, including investors based outside Australia, whose focus is on the aviation industry sector and measuring returns from listed companies impacted by comparable external factors

Up to 50% of the total number of Rights granted may vest based on the relative TSR performance of Qantas in comparison to the ASX100 and up to 50% of the total number of Rights granted may vest based on the relative TSR performance of Qantas in comparison to the Global Listed Airlines peer group. The vesting scale for both the ASX100 and the Global Listed Airlines peer groups is as follows: Qantas TSR Performance Relative to Each Peer Group Vesting Scale Below 50th percentile Nil vesting Between 50th and 75th percentile Linear scale: 50% to 99% vesting At or above 75th percentile 100% vesting The ASX100 peer group comprises those companies that make up the S&P/ASX100 Index at the commencement of the performance period. The Global Listed Airlines peer group has been selected with regard to its representation of Qantas’ key markets, full-service and value-based airlines and the level of government involvement. For the 2015–2017 LTIP, the Global Listed Airlines peer group includes: Air Asia, Air France/KLM, Air New Zealand, All Nippon Airways, International Consolidated Airlines Group, Cathay Pacific, Delta Airlines, easyJet, Japan Airlines, LATAM Airlines Group, Deutsche Lufthansa, Ryanair, Singapore Airlines, Southwest Airlines, Tiger Airways and Virgin Australia. The 2016– 2018 LTIP and 2017–2019 LTIP also include American Airlines and United Continental. Tiger Airways was excluded from the 2017–2019 LTIP


ASX short report (updated daily)

QANTAS AIRWAYS ORDINARY QAN 5,959,936 1,729,665,867 0.34 [% short]
This is not [yet] time to short!
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Old 25th Apr 2018, 03:57
  #189 (permalink)  
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This is not [yet] time to short!
No it isn't yet, the historic open short interest is low.
It is indicative that the key metrics necessary to indicate a move in sentiment were not yet being readily observed. Most analysts 'analyse' airlines as part of the transport sector. Naturally given a company like Qantas' Share Market Capitalisation, Qantas remains heavily represented in most portfolios.

Point in fact, it is the rising fuel price that beings to show the inherent weakness of the 'transformation' narrative.
The same driver is demand induced revenue slowing; yield begins to cascade downwards.

Qantas were very lucky with the fuel price decline. Mr Clifford's missive about the problems facing the company are disingenuous: It is their own waste of shareholder capital, largely rewarding themselves for an industry wide fuel price decline that saved the day.

There is no doubt in our minds, that the impairment charge was well overdue (writing off the International fleet in FY15).
The $597 million dollar fuel saving was due the fact that carrying each RPK (at least across the Pacific) Qantas burn 64% more fuel. Therefore any price reduction on this input would have magnified the benefit as Qantas run a fuel inefficient fleet.
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Old 25th Apr 2018, 04:11
  #190 (permalink)  
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Remember Qantas earns 2.65 times the earnings that Jetstar does!
It is not well understood just how poorly JQ do.
Mr Buchanan desperately tried to avoid expansion into long haul low fare as most of the purported advantages of Low Far Airlines were readily eroded. It is known that he personally stated numerous times that no way would JQ International ever be able to achieve unit cost needed for such a low yield business. The transfer of the original 14 788 (which became 11) was part of his last effort to eradicate the unit cost over run. When he demonstrated his concern to the lightweight board, his tenure was subsequently short lived: Little Napoleon does not tolerate insolence.

Presently it is impossible to see how poorly JQ International do. Despite having more aircraft than the Qantas segment, management do not dis-aggregate into Domestic and International. Something Qantas management did in 2012 to show how 'poorly' Qantas International was faring.

Given every cost Qantas ever incurred from ticketing to uniforms is replicated, JQ now fly 48% of the ASK Qantas fly.
For all their efforts, it is obvious: JQ "group" generate 22% of the Revenue of Qantas. No 'unit cost advantage' that we ever have observed would cover that gap. Fortunately Qantas domestic has sufficient dominance to stem the losses. Simple factor productivty like this indicates that JQ is likely overscale (has grown too big) To those who suggest that this is anti JQ, it isn't. It is however a critique of the lengths to which Little Napoleon will go to ensure the 'myth' of his airline acumen is maintained.

The problem is AJ still has capital to burn the shorts through buy backs. Executive renumeration is now tied to ASX & global peer relative return performance, thus the buy backs will continue to ensure the hurdles are exceeded, at the expense of CAPEX no matter the long term damage to the business.
That was the point of this thread. The disingenuous nature of the Chairman attempting to link the QSA 1992 to the Capital re-equipment problem deserves comment and rebuttal for the Capital Expenditure will need to be expended anyway. Whilst Mr Clifford and his ilk may well grace these pages, no amount of babble changes the simple fact: Qantas need a new fleet and they haven't done that.
The wastage of shareholder funds on personal glorification , social engineering and image management is staggering. Fortunately for them the tide hasn't gone out yet.

Qantas need a new fleet
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Old 25th Apr 2018, 11:03
  #191 (permalink)  
 
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You fail to understand the true value of Qantas' ownership of Jetstar and the size of its operation in Australia.
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Old 25th Apr 2018, 11:56
  #192 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by RealityCzech View Post
You fail to understand the true value of Qantas' ownership of Jetstar and the size of its operation in Australia.
So size does matter? I remember an airline that used to be pretty big in Australia. Didn’t have a benevolent parent to suck dry though. Was called Ansett.

Most of the honchos at Qantas should know a fair bit about it. They were there and are responsible for its failure. Qantas staff just hope that maybe they have learned something but it appears they have only learned how to stuff cash in their pockets.

Last edited by What The; 25th Apr 2018 at 13:22.
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Old 27th Apr 2018, 05:58
  #193 (permalink)  
 
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At the end of the day it’s nothing more than Leprechaun inspired Financial alchemy.
Is that why JetConnect has been absorbed back into the fold due to the fact the Financial wizards of Coward St can no longer leverage off the tax minimisation benefits of Price Transference due to the new IFRS accounting rules coming into effect.
Is the tide going out at long last ?
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Old 27th Apr 2018, 08:05
  #194 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by blow.n.gasket View Post
At the end of the day it’s nothing more than Leprechaun inspired Financial alchemy.
Is that why JetConnect has been absorbed back into the fold due to the fact the Financial wizards of Coward St can no longer leverage off the tax minimisation benefits of Price Transference due to the new IFRS accounting rules coming into effect.
Is the tide going out at long last ?
No. No one cares except the chat forum conspiracy theorists. The analysts and the majors have already factored this in. The problem is that pilots reading you write about this stuff might think you're actually on to something, when you aren't.
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Old 27th Apr 2018, 08:36
  #195 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by RealityCzech View Post
No. No one cares except the chat forum conspiracy theorists. The analysts and the majors have already factored this in. The problem is that pilots reading you write about this stuff might think you're actually on to something, when you aren't.
i keep an open mind so please explain to me how it’s a conspiracy that Qantas have a massive fleet renewal due and how it doesn’t need to happen.
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Old 27th Apr 2018, 08:54
  #196 (permalink)  
 
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Why do you presume they need to do anything? Did Qantas need to keep flying to FRA? Did it need to keep flying to CDG/EZE or anywhere else or did it need to keep flying SYD/LAX 3-4 times a day as it used to? Clearly not.

The assumptions many pilots make that Qantas will inevitably need to do things are simply wrong. Especially when they then take the next step in the assumption and presume it means massive gains in terms and conditions. There is a point where the fares able to be charged cannot justify the investment in new aircraft/more pilots/more expensive pilots. No one who posts on this chat site knows that point.

I see plenty from the likes of Rated De about the evils of HR, IR, politicians, 457 visas, unions etc. I see very little discussion and analysis of the economics of the international aviation market. The latter is a much, much bigger factor regarding new fleet than the former.
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Old 27th Apr 2018, 09:13
  #197 (permalink)  
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tax minimisation benefits of Price Transference
We would suggest the dissolution of Jetconnect nevertheless renders certain executives vulnerable, the structure of Jetconnect was interesting.


i keep an open mind so please explain to me how it’s a conspiracy that Qantas have a massive fleet renewal due and how it doesn’t need to happen.
Presently the biggest order Qantas ever placed for 110 A320 valued at $9.5 billion, is not 'cancellable', thus delivery commences.... Mr Buchanan telegraphed the 'replacement' rather than 'growth' meme in 2011 when announcing the order. Jetstar's ASK versus revenue factor productivity suggests a scale problem. With the aircraft rolling off lease in need of a home and this being 'contract' year is it any surprise that yet another entity is the new home to these aircraft? Nicely positioned to 'scare' the pilots (irrespective of crewing problems and rejection of product by Corporate clients in WA) ? Enter Network Aviation.

Qantas mainline meanwhile need a new fleet, irrespective of protest and threats, they either buy aircraft or as fuel price rises run the risk of 'De-transforming' the airline!

Qantas need a new fleet
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Old 27th Apr 2018, 09:57
  #198 (permalink)  
 
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There is a point where the fares able to be charged cannot justify the investment in new aircraft/more pilots/more expensive pilots
And the most expensive executives in the world?
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Old 27th Apr 2018, 10:27
  #199 (permalink)  
 
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Here’s some international economics.

Supply and demand. The endless global supply of gluttonous executives behaving badly and the increasing demand for executive accountability. Bank’s first, and a different metoo movement will follow.

Meanwhile the real supply and demand problem facing international aviation will conform to economics. Innovation and flexibility will be part of the solution to keep the masses flying. So will better pilot conditions which recognise the role pilots play in an airline.
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Old 27th Apr 2018, 11:27
  #200 (permalink)  
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I see very little discussion and analysis of the economics of the international aviation market. The latter is a much, much bigger factor regarding new fleet than the former.
The economics of the International Aviation market are simple. Don't believe us, and as you seem to have a little trouble with research;

Qantas 'worst major airline' for fuel efficiency on trans-Pacific flights, study suggests - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

In summary the cost to deliver the RPK is 64% higher than competitors, that is 'aviation economics'.

Qantas still need a new fleet
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