Pilot shortage

["Littlebird"]

Pilotless Aircraft

Pilotless aircraft by 2025?...not a chance in hell. The technology might be ready by then for the airline industry.Then there's years of proving flights and finally convincing the public.
The first airline(s) that go this way will be the first to go out of business. How about you test this theory with family and friends. I have. I know a lot of people and not one said they would take the risk. They would rather go by rail by land or by old school ship across the oceans. In addition,the statement regarding less pilots will be needed. Yes maybe. As if the career choice isn't already comprimised and non appealing to the next generation? Even less will take it up. Another shortage perhaps in the remote control world? It's all relative.

[gordonfvckingramsay]

Meanwhile CASA sit back contemplating their navel


Since when are distracted, fatigued, stressed, abused, deceived, outsourced and discarded pilots safe ones? And since when has a gladiator style inter-pilot competition been safe too?


CASA......Hellooo! Aren't you responsible for safety? Or are you also hiding behind the strict liability of the Captain?

[Rated De]

Pilotless aircraft by 2025?...not a chance in hell. The technology might be ready by then for the airline industry.Then there's years of proving flights and finally convincing the public.

Exactly, so removing that existential threat pilots will be needed for at least a few decades.


Imagine you are a HR manager at a large airline responsible for recruiting 'talent' (try hard to imagine as uncomfortable as it would be )

• You notice volume of qualified applicants is not as historical trends indicate
• You notice many applicants are from in 'the group'
• You notice retirement rates trending up.
• You notice 'those on hold' when contacted do not immediately rush to re-apply

What would you do?

Consulting IR you quickly decide that:

In the past an 'implied threat' controlled the glorified bus drivers.

1. You integrate foreign pilots into domestic network on existing terms and conditions
2. You give a 'shiny metal jet' to a subsidiary
3. Consult with 'stakeholders'
4. You perhaps send out a pilot wide email on the technology change coming next week implying aircraft to be pilot less in 5 years

Quietly you also;

• Cut training paths to increase 'output' of line pilots. What happens if the recruited talent has less experience or skills and needs additional training in the simulator? What happens if the regulator says no more cuts to training courses?
• Get a simulator, as the additional training was not something you foresaw; after all pilots are bountiful and this never happened on a sustained basis before!
• Slow acceptances from 'group pilots', thereby delaying shortages
• 'Announce' an exciting opportunity to complete University and enter an internship in the RHS of a turbo prop.
• Allow flight operations to run roster limits (regulatory) as targets. Particularly where the pilots have substantial income at risk, like a domestic contract on the 737.
• Do not allow any extended leave, give the minimum leave over strategically important periods, like Christmas
• Quietly write to the senior pilots approaching 60, to ask for 'planning purposes' their intentions regarding retirement. You have noticed there aren't many replies.
• Take a month off for Christmas, after all you work hard

Upon your return from your well earned break you observe that there is still a problem both with application volume and quality. You may well still get 500 applications, but it is probably best not to tell your pilots that most of those applications come from a PPL with a dream, or from a foreigner not meeting the licensing requirements. Such small omissions change materially and quantitatively the pool of qualified applicants.


Consulting IR again, as you are a diligent 'practitioner' they tell you it is ok, time for some more Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt.

[Jeps]

You may well still get 500 applications, but it is probably best not to tell your pilots that most of those applications come from a PPL with a dream, or from a foreigner not meeting the licensing requirements.

This. So Perfect

[gordonfvckingramsay]

The big problem is this: How do you get a bunch of employees to put it all on the line when their options are 1) Grow a big ol' pair and stand their ground in the hope that things will improve, 2) Get it wrong and lose everything.


That's why I'm so critical of CASA for staying silent while all this is happening, dishonesty by omission is still dishonest.
Your standard management will hide behind 'commercial in confidence', or 'oh that's just industrial troublemakers' etc. to put CASA off the scent. I think it's time for CASA to ask some very probing questions and demand some very frank answers from our great CEO's before the crisis really steps up a gear.


Sadly I defy anyone from CASA to send our big airlines and their multiple subcontractors even a Christmas card let alone a please explain.

[Rated De]

That's why I'm so critical of CASA for staying silent while all this is happening, dishonesty by omission is still dishonest.

Whilst I share your sentiment, regulatory capture is a fundamental flaw in many industries.

From banking and finance, to retail, regulators are captured by the voluminous and overwhelming resources of the industry they are supposed to regulate.
Governments progressively strip away resources as it suits the de-regulation apologists that constantly and loudly assert the industry is better 'self regulated'. For whom it is better when self regulated is strangely absent.

Or are you also hiding behind the strict liability of the Captain?

I would strongly assert that the last line of defence for both management and the regulator is indeed the issue of strict liability.

[IsDon]

Originally Posted by Rated De

Exactly, so removing that existential threat pilots will be needed for at least a few decades.


Imagine you are a HR manager at a large airline responsible for recruiting 'talent' (try hard to imagine as uncomfortable as it would be )

• You notice volume of qualified applicants is not as historical trends indicate
• You notice many applicants are from in 'the group'
• You notice retirement rates trending up.
• You notice 'those on hold' when contacted do not immediately rush to re-apply

What would you do?

Consulting IR you quickly decide that:

In the past an 'implied threat' controlled the glorified bus drivers.

1. You integrate foreign pilots into domestic network on existing terms and conditions
2. You give a 'shiny metal jet' to a subsidiary
3. Consult with 'stakeholders'
4. You perhaps send out a pilot wide email on the technology change coming next week implying aircraft to be pilot less in 5 years

Quietly you also;

• Cut training paths to increase 'output' of line pilots. What happens if the recruited talent has less experience or skills and needs additional training in the simulator? What happens if the regulator says no more cuts to training courses?
• Get a simulator, as the additional training was not something you foresaw; after all pilots are bountiful and this never happened on a sustained basis before!
• Slow acceptances from 'group pilots', thereby delaying shortages
• 'Announce' an exciting opportunity to complete University and enter an internship in the RHS of a turbo prop.
• Allow flight operations to run roster limits (regulatory) as targets. Particularly where the pilots have substantial income at risk, like a domestic contract on the 737.
• Do not allow any extended leave, give the minimum leave over strategically important periods, like Christmas
• Quietly write to the senior pilots approaching 60, to ask for 'planning purposes' their intentions regarding retirement. You have noticed there aren't many replies.
• Take a month off for Christmas, after all you work hard

Upon your return from your well earned break you observe that there is still a problem both with application volume and quality. You may well still get 500 applications, but it is probably best not to tell your pilots that most of those applications come from a PPL with a dream, or from a foreigner not meeting the licensing requirements. Such small omissions change materially and quantitatively the pool of qualified applicants.


Consulting IR again, as you are a diligent 'practitioner' they tell you it is ok, time for some more Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt.

I reckon you’re given HR way, way too much credit. Everything I’ve observed over the last 5-6 years shows that they’re not that strategic.

Moving Jetconnect aeroplanes to VH register will actually create more flying for mainline 737 pilots though the potential of the Trojan Horse is acknowledged by all- including Management.

Moving a couple of inefficiently utilised 737s off mining routes will result in increased flying for both mainline 737 and A330 pilots though the potential Trojan Horse is acknowledged by everyone-including Management.

I suspect the QLink ‘cadetships’ for aviation students is a slightly developed thought bubble I suspect created at quite low levels within the airline. Anyone with significant industry experience can see the strengths and weaknesses of this initiative and knows how it will play out. It’s a tactical solution to what is a strategic issue and like most tactical solutions may win that battle for a short time but the war is still being lost.

From my understanding Qantas has always written to the older pilots asking their intentions? So nothing new there?

Anyway, there is no doubt the industry is changing and it’s a delicious irony that the IR strategy of the last couple of decades has been the genesis of the current shortage and issues facing recruitment and retention of crew. It’s that lack of foresight and self awareness that makes me so confident there is no long term strategy behind what is occurring now. If there was we’d see the major airlines targeting high school students and finding ways of engaging them into airline pilot careers. Until that time they’re just managing the crisis in front of them.

[Lezzeno]

How do you get a bunch of employees to put it all on the line when their options are 1) Grow a big ol' pair and stand their ground in the hope that things will improve, 2) Get it wrong and lose everything.

Once upon a time this was a role taken on by a pilot union. Nowadays they just hold a ‘review’

[OnceBitten]

Maybe with inspiring videos like this for future pilots the shortage won't happen?

Emirates praises pilots, as Ryanair battles them | Arab News

Motivational stuff, The EK guys seem inspired!

[CurtainTwitcher]

Originally Posted by IsDon

Moving a couple of inefficiently utilised 737s off mining routes will result in increased flying for both mainline 737 and A330

Are the 737 actually being used inefficiently? Sources indicate a 9% reduction in hours Jan 18 vs Jan 17. The source also indicates an 18% less flying hours compared to the peak in Aug 16. This final figure needs to be tempered with the fact it isn't like for like months.

Further, sources indicate only about 6.75 ~ 7 hours flying per 737 aircraft for (domestic) per day.

So I question the inefficiency argument. I see the inefficiency as a deliberate function of the two brand strategy. If the 737 was utilised like the J* A32x's, likely in the 10~12 hour per day range (typpical LCC), there would be an excess of seats domestically. Reducing 737 flying offers a structural subsidy to enhance the profitability of Jetstar, and maximise the QF yield instead of flooding the market with seats. The two branded strategy isn't all upside, and capacity has to be carefully managed, the 737 is the swing lever.

[Oakape]

What a joke!

[Keg]

I reckon there is a bit of fat in the 737 utilisation. Certainly the Jetconnect deal is about getting better utilisation as is the Network A320s. I suspect though the reason is more about utilising them transcontinental to release A330 capacity internationally than any IR ploy (as Isdon pointed out).

So maybe ‘inefficient’ isn’t quite the correct term and perhaps releasing increased efficiency would have been a better way to put it? Either way it appears an increase in utilisation of the fleet and that’s a good thing for mainline crew- and of course still keeping an eye on that damned horse!

[Rated De]

I reckon you’re given (sic) HR way, way too much credit. Everything I’ve observed over the last 5-6 years shows that they’re not that strategic.

Au contraire, I am not giving the 'credit' to HR, I give it to IR. Labour organisations play checkers, these people play chess.
There is precedent all over the industry for this type of play.
Whilst personally it may calm you to believe this is an accident, did JQ get bigger than Mr Dixon's promised 23 aircraft?
Jetconnect quietly bubbled along for a decade and assumed the form it is now, do you really believe that was mere accident?

In 2003 Jetconnect's principal activity was;

Is the employment and on-hire of leasing of cabin crew to operate domestic commercial aircraft flights within New Zealand.


to;


'Operation and management of aircraft in order to fulfill an operating schedule of trans Tasman commercial passenger flights'

With that small adjustment went domestic pilot density and salary.


Qantas pilots ought quietly ask themselves, can the same management who grounded and locked you out, called you 'terminal' and made millions from 'transformation' now really truly be trusted not to again play the same game?

[RealityCzech]

Rated De,

You're pretty repetitive with your criticism of Qantas management, HR, IR and aviation unions. Those are your views and that's fine.

So, you're good at criticising everyone involved, but what exactly is your solution to these problems for pilots? What is your plan? To do what legally? Practically? PR-wise? In EBA negotiations? PIA?

Tell us.... you seem pretty long on bagging everyone and rather short on actual, detailed proposals and steps to take. Let's hear them

[mikk_13]

The aviation industry is dead.

$400,000 to get $50,000 a year job. Everyone knows how bad the conditions are as pilots.

In Europe, Ryan air has been in the papers every day for the last 2 month highlighting the horrible conditions for flight crews.

100,000 for a job with bad pay and employers that treat you badly. Eurowing has new contracts for A320 pilots- 2000€ per month. Who would want to become a pilot?

The atc recruitment in Europe is struggling. They don't have enough applications to fill the courses. Everyday there are ads on facebook for flight crew and atc.

This will take a decade to correct.

[Icarus2001]

$400,000 to get $50,000 a year job.

Steady on there, where do you get those figures from?

It is not quite that bad yet.

[dr dre]

Originally Posted by mikk_13

The aviation industry is dead.

$400,000 to get $50,000 a year job. Everyone knows how bad the conditions are as pilots.

In Europe, Ryan air has been in the papers every day for the last 2 month highlighting the horrible conditions for flight crews.

On the contrary Ryanair has done something this week that Michael O’Leary said would only happen when “hell freezes over” and recognised unions for the first time in the company’s history. This after their disastrous past few months where they lost hundreds of pilots to Norwegian, leaving the once arrogant O’Leary to practically get on his knees and beg his pilots to stay and work during their annual leave. Are these events at the one entity that was foreseen to keep down terms and conditions forever mean that the global pilot shortage might actually be beginning?

[Rated De]

Tell us.... you seem pretty long on bagging everyone and rather short on actual, detailed proposals and steps to take. Let's hear them

How is the campus?

Perhaps it is simply a case that as Herb Kelleher said;

“A company is stronger if it is bound by love rather than by fear.”

Mr O'Leary may find disassembling the adversarial model of IR/HR quite a challenge, but that would be a good start.

[Keg]

There is no one in Qantas IR who was around in 2003. Not a soul. Heck, even Joyce himself wasn’t long in QF at that stage.

There is no way they set up QF NZ domestic as a back door way to introduce Jetconnect into the mainline domestic structure. They set it up hoping they could take on AirNZ. They discovered the brand didn’t work but the Jetstar brand might. When Qantas NZ started JQ wasn’t working in Aus let alone thinking about exporting it anywhere. When QF NZ didn’t work that’s when they decided to use it on the Tasman. Now that they want more utilisation out of the airframes they’ve decided to make this move. There are barely any managers that have beeen in QF in 2003 with the ability to influence those decisions.

What has happened is that Management have responded to different situations with a ‘what now’ attitude. The decisions out of those questions have been poor for mainline crew but it’s bordering on delusional to suggest that the people who burned billions on Jetstar HK, JQ Japan, JQ Pacific, JQ Asia, Red Q, and so on are suddenly Machiavellian geniuses when it comes to mainline IR? You’re giving Joyce et al that much credit? Really?

[blow.n.gasket]

Sorry , have to disagree with you on this Keg.
The Machiavellian architect behind most of Qantas’ industrial shenanigans for the past couple of decades would have to be Ian Oldmeadow .
He maybe on the so called outer now , but mark my words , I bet he still has IR’s ear in Qantas .