Wikiposts
Search
Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific Airline and RPT Rumours & News in Australia, enZed and the Pacific

Pilot shortage

Thread Tools
 
Search this Thread
 
Old 11th Aug 2018, 06:59
  #1181 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Harbour Master Place
Posts: 662
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Forbes does the Southwest vs O'Leary model of how to work with your employees. Troubling times ahead for other Ryanair wannabe's.
With 17% Of Flights Cancelled, Can Ryanair Weather Pilot Strikes? Ask Southwest.

Ryanair is facing turbulence right now with pilots unions around Europe demanding better working conditions. The optics are bad for an airline which has been on an aggressive growth path for decades.

But Ryanair’s low-cost model, borrowed from Southwest Airlines, has had decades to adapt. If the airline has shown anything over the years, is that this dynamic democratization of air travel is relatively shock-proof.

While Ryanair has put its own spin on the low-cost, low-complexity business model that Southwest perfected, it’s useful to recall that Southwest Airlines has long had strong and engaged pilots and flight attendant unions—around 83% of all Southwest staff are unionized. The U.S. low-cost leader has managed to address the needs of its employees while maintaining a lean operation.



Ryanair is not Southwest. For one thing, it is only recently that the airline’s CEO, Michael O’Leary, publicly acknowledged that it pays to be friendly. Southwest has known that all along.

Ryanair has built up some animus over decades and has only been working to soften its tone over the past four years with its Always Getting Better initiatives. It takes more time than that for the friendlier image to stick. Meanwhile, as the airline is pitted against multiple unions, the animus the airline has fostered fuels some schadenfreude.

The factors at play in Europe are perhaps more complex than the union negotiations U.S. airlines face. There’s national pride behind each negotiation, maintaining the labor standards that support the quality of life that each country’s unions fight for. But Europe’s unions are not pitted against Ryanair alone. Competitors across the transport sector in Europe can face and have faced labor actions. As Ryanair’s CMO Kenny Jacob’s recently quipped, “German consumers are used to strikes.” This was a dig at rival Lufthansa, which has had its share of labor disruptions, but there is some truth to it that applies beyond Germany.

No one likes having their holidays disrupted but, year after year, there are various transport strikes at inconvenient times—in the air and on the ground—and Europeans will still travel.

While current labor action in Germany, Sweden, Ireland and Belgium has prompted Ryanair to cancel 17% of its scheduled flights for Friday, these disruptions are foreseeable and the airline has had time to advise customers and make adjustments to its schedule.

Ryanair has taken a firm stance that it will not sacrifice the success of its low-cost operating model, but discussions continue. The airline’s COO, Peter Bellew, noted that demands by German pilots were detailed which should help move the conversation along without requiring mediation.

Ryanair, as a brand, may have nurtured a rebellious image, but it is, at heart, a conservative company. It is bold, but not foolhardy in its approach to risks. It is also transparent about turbulence ahead.

In its most recent SEC filing, at the end of July, the airline addressed the risks of ongoing collective bargaining with pilots and crew.

“Over 95% of Ryanair pilots have already accepted an updated pay deal but there is still the potential for claims from unions to increase pay over and above what has already been agreed. There may be a push for legacy type working conditions which if acceded to could decrease the productivity of pilots, increase costs and have an adverse effect on profitability. Ryanair intends to retain its low fare high people productivity model; however, there may be periods of labor unrest as unions challenge the existing high productivity model which may have an adverse effect on customer sentiment and profitability,” the airline states.

Ryanair crew with the exception of those based in the UK operate on Irish contracts of employment. That model has been challenged in the past by individuals and may continue to be challenged by trade unions who often favor local employment contracts. If local contracts were imposed it could impact on costs, productivity and complexity of the business. Any subsequent decision to switch capacity to lower cost locations could result in redundancies and a consequent deterioration in labor relations. Following the European Court of Justice (the “ECJ”) decision in the ‘Mons’ case in September 2017, the case has been referred to the Belgian Labour Court in Mons, and with a hearing date set for November 2018 and a decision expected in early 2019. An unfavorable decision could mean the introduction of local Belgian contracts however, this decision may be appealed to the Supreme Court. Ryanair could face legal challenge from trade unions arising from unrealistic demands and expectations that do not align with the Company’s high productivity business model.

As in the case of Southwest, that high productivity business model is a significant buffer in bad times. Ryanair saw a 20% drop in profitability during Q1 of its 2019 financial year caused by lower fares and higher fuel and labor costs, but that still resulted in €319m ($370m) in profits for the quarter.

“As previously guided, Q1 PAT fell by 20% to €319m due to lower fares, the absence of half of Easter in the quarter, higher oil prices and pilot costs. Traffic grew 7% to 37.6 m, despite over 2,500 flight cancellations caused by ATC staff shortages and ATC strikes. Ryanair’s lower fares delivered an industry leading 96% load factor,” Michael O’Leary said of the results.

Ryanair reported break-even load factor for 2017 and 2018 of 73%. This leaves a comfortable buffer between the number of passengers the airline needs and the number of passengers that want to fly with Ryanair.

Even with the drop in profitability, the airline maintained a 15% net margin for the quarter. Compare that to the global industry average of 4.1% that the International Air Transport Association (IATA) projected for 2018. Compare that also to the 12.8% net margin that Southwest reported for the Second Quarter at the end of July.

The low-cost model perfected by Southwest and Ryanair is to air travel what Ford’s industrial assembly methodology was to manufacturing. Each airline has found its own way to package it, but lean principles and the standardization of product, procedure and maintenance gives these airlines an edge that legacy competitors still cannot match.

The global pilot shortage is a factor at play, but Ryanair is also a significant employer in Europe. The airline has a marked footprint in the market and no one wins if Ryanair were to vanish from the skies; not pilots and crew, and not consumers. Anyway, this scenario is unlikely.

While it might make some of Ryanair’s competitors and detractors in Europe gleeful to see the airline confront the same labor issues they have been plagued by for decades, Ryanair will be as methodical and determined in dealing with this complication as it is with everything else.

But there is a point, somewhere in the middle, between what the airline’s staff needs to be content and what the airline needs to keep flying strong. That point can be found in LUV.

I worked in aviation from 1994-2010 before turning my experience to writing about airlines and airports for leading industry and consumer publications in 2013. I’ve spent months in the hangars of airlines and aircraft manufacturers, dressed aircraft seats by hand, and worked...MORE
https://www.forbes.com/sites/marisag.../#72ebb1b36c79
CurtainTwitcher is offline  
Old 11th Aug 2018, 08:20
  #1182 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Aus
Posts: 568
Received 71 Likes on 25 Posts
Originally Posted by Tee Emm
As a matter of interest, for a RAAF pilot graduate with typically 210 hours, how many years from graduation and what approximate flying hours would he/she expect to have before getting a command on a C-17 Globemaster 3? How about a 737 BBJ with 34 (VIP) Squadron?
Most people are getting command 2-3 years after checking onto line. The exceptions being B350 which is 6-12 months. Probably somewhere between 750-1200 hours. Depends on the unit, what the flying rate is like, how many Instructors or SQ's are around, etc.
junior.VH-LFA is offline  
Old 12th Aug 2018, 00:33
  #1183 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Location: Europe
Posts: 1,674
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by CurtainTwitcher
Forbes does the Southwest vs O'Leary model of how to work with your employees. Troubling times ahead for other Ryanair wannabe's.https://www.forbes.com/sites/marisag.../#72ebb1b36c79



The modern airline management doctrine, neither recognises nor counts what is not tangible and cannot be monetised.
Consequently, their focus on unit cost fails to account for what those like Southwest that holistically embrace the reality that airlines are a dynamic team sport.

Organised labour does not need to withdraw their labour (which incidentally is incredibly hard to do) what it needs to simply do is stop enabling the model to sustain itself.
  • Whether it is using one's own internet to update the 'manuals', arriving early for terminal congestion (which is simply extending a TOD), using a personal cell phone to make company calls, simply stopping these things COSTS the company and suddenly becomes tangible.
What they haven't bothered counting at Ryan air as they ignored it, due perceived unlimited supply and power asymmetry over employees, will continue to be a costly exercise as the impact begins to accumulate financially.

Each business model has a shelf life. Architects of the modern aggressive and adversarial model have handsomely profited for decades.
With 17% less operation, RYR is finding that not only Operating Revenue is falling but the costs of cancelled operations and compensation will quickly outstrip any perceived gain from persevering with a business model that is time expired led by an idiot who is pass his use by date.

The big question for the industry and long suffering staff is will Ryan air change?
Rated De is offline  
Old 12th Aug 2018, 08:44
  #1184 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Nz
Posts: 431
Likes: 0
Received 12 Likes on 5 Posts
Organised labour does not need to withdraw their labour (which incidentally is incredibly hard to do) what it needs to simply do is stop enabling the model to sustain itself.
  • Whether it is using one's own internet to update the 'manuals', arriving early for terminal congestion (which is simply extending a TOD), using a personal cell phone to make company calls, simply stopping these things COSTS the company and suddenly becomes tangible
If 50% of an Australian or NZ Airlines pilots did nothing but turn up to work on time and then begin updating their apps, their manuals, reading their company emails etc etc the place would grind to a halt in 24 hours.
Pilots like it when things run well, and on time. They enjoy being part of a nicely functioning system, they take pride in their role within the system. Because of that, historically, there has been no problem with all the work that gets done at home in ones own time, after all, we’re well paid and respected by our company and community. What has happened is that management is now mainly accountants and lawyers and we are no longer respected and valued for the role we play by our company ( to a large degree the community as well). In some cases we are not well paid either.
So, by treating the pilot group with little respect and by demonstrating that the job is not valued in the same way it was, we now have pilots saying “ well bugger ya then, I’ll turn up on time like my cousin who works in the ice cream factory loading boxes and do the minimum I have to”.
This is a big change in the last 20 years. I used to think it would get very messy from about 2022 onwards with accident rates increasing but now, with the shortage and the Ryanair pilots driving a stake in the ground I hold some hope that the profession of ‘Pilot’ will remain a decent profession.
We’ll see.
73qanda is offline  
Old 12th Aug 2018, 09:51
  #1185 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Harbour Master Place
Posts: 662
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
It's not just airlines. I think it is very important to understand the history of HOW we got to this point. There was a confluence of events in the 1970's that set the stage for the economic situation a significant number of industries finds themselves in: F I N A N C I A L I Z A T I O N. An abstract game where people and widgets are traded like goods and chattel fuelled by cheap debt.

Having gone off the gold standard on August 15 1971, the scene was set for a massive credit boom, money having been untethered from the real economy. During the decade junk bonds were created by Michael Milken, leading to massively leveraged raids or management buyouts. Now the name of the game was borrow extraordinary sums to bid up a "target" of which you were only interested in a component. Once you acquired the target, flog off the bits you don't want, hopefully repaying the debt and walk away owning the Jewel in the crown for *FREE*. Cost cutting was the only game in town, and those that had talents for putting together a deal and sacking half the employees under the weight of enormous debts ended up billionaires. These billionaires had essentially found a way to extract the long term accumulated value from these businesses and grab it for themselves leaving a burn out wreckage behind for the employees and customers.

Oliver Stone captured the period perfectly with movie Wall Street. The name of the game is to make a fast buck & get out, not build something to last. Companies took it upon themselves to do this voluntarily, rather than become a target for a buy-and-breakup raider. Ironically, he featured an airline break-up play as the central plot of the movie: Bluestar Airlines.

At the same time Reagan & Thatcher came to office, and decided to break the unions, in response to the coal strikes in the UK and the Air Traffic Controllers dispute in the US. This combined with the deregulation of Airlines in the US led to wave after wave of bankruptcy, mergers and acquisitions, sackings and massive cost cutting in the industry.

That is how managers learned to run the business, that is all they knew, how to shave costs and gain short term benefits and ended up making it a most unattractive business for front line employees who were always worried about having a job next week.

These forces combined have contributed to of the industry decline. Our's is not alone, many other industries suffered the same fate, it was just less visible to us except as a news report of job losses.

The Predators' Ball: The Inside Story of Drexel Burnham and the Rise of the JunkBond Raiders The Predators' Ball: The Inside Story of Drexel Burnham and the Rise of the JunkBond Raiders
covers most of the important mechanics of how this financialization raiding got started & works. After reading this, go back and watch Wall Street to realise the genius of Oliver Stone (the book was published after the movie, so Stone had to independently discover how the game worked to such deep depths).
CurtainTwitcher is offline  
Old 12th Aug 2018, 10:10
  #1186 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: 60 north
Age: 59
Posts: 17
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
73 qanda

Thanks for the support.
You elegantly analysed the present situation.
And right You are, once at work we tend to become proud , professional and competitive and play for the team we work for.

I like the Icecream story.

Here is on from Norway:
Mr IceCream of Norway , Hennig Olsen, decides that he needs better connections out of Kristiansand.
No problem, start an airline, get some Dutch chaps to fly it wet lease.
For ca 8 months there were all sorts of direct routes down to Europe.
Some 20 million euros later he cranked up the freezer and got back to what he was good at.

Anyway
Most of us are damd good at what we do: Making sure the perishable product we purvey, dont melt!
Mind u it is getting close to melting point!

Never a dull moment! In Aviation of-course.
Regards
Cpt B
BluSdUp is offline  
Old 12th Aug 2018, 10:45
  #1187 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: 60 north
Age: 59
Posts: 17
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
CT
Now we are getting closer.
Our Industry is actually rather tame , compared to others.
Generally due to a minimum of regulation required due to the obvious catastrophic result without it.

The Money People has taken over the world, and the consequences are in the long term absolutely catastrophic!!
I feel massive shame off how we are handing the world over to our grand children.
Our children are confused.

I was a teenager when Thatcher and Reagan changed the world and beat Soviet.
I was focused on the success of us winning the cold war. I missed the fact that the good old Union Chap Ronald Reagan made a deal with the Devil to get to the top.
He let the Money People run the show.

Not a communist quite yet, but something has to change and soon.
Still voting conservative here in Norway, for other reasons.
Anyway.
80 year old kpt Ø just flew over in his Cessna.
He has enjoyed the best of times.

Off to check the lobster,,,, Eh,, Crab Pots.
( Lobster season is in a month, me thinks)

Regards
Cpt B
BluSdUp is offline  
Old 12th Aug 2018, 22:52
  #1188 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2017
Location: Australia
Posts: 76
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
If you're after a great movie that depicts the greed of the financial services industry over the last 50 years then I recommend "The Big Short". I would suggest that the same practices have been employed in the aviation industry both from an investment and management perspective as highlighted by 73' and Curtain, above.
Kranz is offline  
Old 13th Aug 2018, 09:13
  #1189 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Kichin
Posts: 1,048
Received 694 Likes on 190 Posts
Beautifully condensed and written CT.

My mates think I’m mad but I can sense the pendulum swinging. We do live in bubbles of our own industry but the entire economic system hinges on the workforce being meek and mild, and thinking about retaining their jobs. For decades we accepted that we were powerless against multi million/billion dollar corporations. Simple workplace minimalism from your staff can bring you to your knees and I feel we are at a turning point where, simultaneously but independently, we are all united in returning some of the pain to these corporations.......secretly they know this.
gordonfvckingramsay is online now  
Old 13th Aug 2018, 09:37
  #1190 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Location: Europe
Posts: 1,674
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by gordonfvckingramsay
Beautifully condensed and written CT.

My mates think I’m mad but I can sense the pendulum swinging. We do live in bubbles of our own industry but the entire economic system hinges on the workforce being meek and mild, and thinking about retaining their jobs. For decades we accepted that we were powerless against multi million/billion dollar corporations. Simple workplace minimalism from your staff can bring you to your knees and I feel we are at a turning point where, simultaneously but independently, we are all united in returning some of the pain to these corporations.......secretly they know this.
It is even more fundamental.
There are two periods in recent history where income distribution is flat: World Wars.
In the intervening periods, asymmetry develops and unions are captured by the same lobby dollars. Ever wonder why nothing changes whether red team or blue team are the 'government'?
Declining real wages and concentration of income in small segments of economies and industries creates a break down of an implied social contract: No longer does hard work, prudence and other virtues matter. If to quote Gordon Gekko, " If you aren't inside, you are outside". Sadly there are less inside, than out.

As the asymmetry between the haves and have not rises, debt is the result: People borrow to keep up. This has limits.
Idiots like Australian treasurer Morrison lament wages growth, but the lobyyists donate good money to ensure high immigration keeps downwards pressure on wages. Fearing wage growth is precisely why airlines are allowed to obtain foreigners to do Australian jobs. The 'Labor' party is as silent as the LNP.

Eventually we return to what Henry Ford detailed in his 1926 book "Today and Tomorrow"

“The owner, the employees, and the buying public are all one and the same, and unless an industry can so manage itself as to keep wages high and prices low it destroys itself, for otherwise it limits the number of its customers. One’s own employees ought to be one’s own best customers.”

Businesses end up eating their own tail.
Rated De is offline  
Old 14th Aug 2018, 02:52
  #1191 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2017
Location: Global Citizen
Posts: 144
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Some people still don’t get it...

I don’t understand why they need to advertise, all the additional non-flying tasks for the princely sum of $77k incl super.

Pilot Job - First Officer - Challenger 601 3A-ER

I think there are quite a few out there, particularly in Oz, that still believe in ‘shaking the ol’ pilot tree’ for a limitless supply.

This advert reminds me of a post from another forum (hence no link)

Quote:
Originally Posted by billsaw
Yea some 1970's Lear Jets will get retired finally and many of those guys who were just "keeping up with the Jones" will disappear. And good riddance. They need to be on the airlines anyway. Most of them never had full operating crews anyway and are the operations that have one guy whose job ad reads like this

Pilot wanted: Lear 35 or Hawker 700 or Falcon 10 or whatever old tub you can think of
Must be typed and current. Must have 5,000TT, 2,000 in type, 1,000PIC in type. Must have a masters degree and been a fighter pilot. Being a Blue Angel is a plus.

Looking for a good guy who can manage our operation out of KXXX airport. We are a great company to work for. Responsibilities include hiring contract FO's to fly with you. Flying the airplane, booking hotels for flight crew and owner and transportation coordinator. Sweeping and maintaining the hangar. Washing and polishing the brightwork on the plane, and the owners cars if you don't fly that week. Oh yea and his pool boy just quit so maintaining owners pool at his house. You may be needed in the office to do some mundane choirs. You will also be responsible for managing the maintenance on the aircraft and the lawnmowers. Oops I almost forgot, cutting the grass at the hangar and landscaping at the owners house (poolboy was the also the landscaper). We will need you to be at the office every morning at 0700 with donuts and to drop off the bosses dry cleaning when not on the road. When on the road we will need you to leave you hotel ($50 a day is our budget for yours) to go to the bosses Four Seasons by 0630 as you are also the chauffeur while on the road. Being a good cook is a plus.

Pay starts at 50k (tops out at 52k)
Per diem is $14 a day
no health
no dental
no 401k
vacation 2 weeks annually but must be used retroactively on Sundays when you were already at home previously.

So yea those guys/\/\/\/\/\ will go away and good. Who wants to do that kind of crap.

But I challenge you with this.

When fuel prices were through the roof did rich guys stop flying their private aircraft? Nope. Maybe the guys above did but not the rich guys and companies. And they won't either when pilot cost goes up.
stormfury is offline  
Old 14th Aug 2018, 10:30
  #1192 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: The wrong time zone...
Posts: 843
Received 58 Likes on 23 Posts
I don’t understand why they need to advertise, all the additional non-flying tasks for the princely sum of $77k incl super.

Pilot Job - First Officer - Challenger 601 3A-ER

I think there are quite a few out there, particularly in Oz, that still believe in ‘shaking the ol’ pilot tree’ for a limitless supply.

This advert reminds me of a post from another forum (hence no link)
I agree - this $hit stinks - unfortunately, someone will bite, though...
josephfeatherweight is offline  
Old 14th Aug 2018, 12:09
  #1193 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Shower house of Africa
Posts: 273
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Look on the bright side , 77k flying a challenger beats the 73k Qantaslink are offering Dash 8 FOs.....
Ghost_Rider737 is offline  
Old 14th Aug 2018, 20:03
  #1194 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Somewhere on the Australian Coast
Posts: 1,091
Received 164 Likes on 36 Posts
Seriously, if "the family" can afford a Challenger, they can afford a decent salary*. Which "family" is it anyway? The fecking Corleones?

*Such are the ways such people get richer, however.
DirectAnywhere is offline  
Old 15th Aug 2018, 04:26
  #1195 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Sydney Australia
Posts: 2,303
Received 9 Likes on 4 Posts
Originally Posted by Ghost_Rider737
Look on the bright side , 77k flying a challenger beats the 73k Qantaslink are offering Dash 8 FOs.....
Statements like that are certainly part of the problem!
KRUSTY 34 is offline  
Old 15th Aug 2018, 04:31
  #1196 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Sydney Australia
Posts: 2,303
Received 9 Likes on 4 Posts
Originally Posted by DirectAnywhere
Seriously, if "the family" can afford a Challenger, they can afford a decent salary*. Which "family" is it anyway? The fecking Corleones?

*Such are the ways such people get richer, however.
Good to see they are willing to put their lives and those of their family in the hands of the lowest bidder!
KRUSTY 34 is offline  
Old 15th Aug 2018, 08:01
  #1197 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 1999
Location: I prefer to remain north of a direct line BNE-ADL
Age: 48
Posts: 1,286
Likes: 0
Received 33 Likes on 10 Posts
The challenger job is for 100-200 stick hours a year though which is less than part time. But the challenge is someone who would take this considering they could get 2-300k overseas with the same qualifications.
Angle of Attack is offline  
Old 15th Aug 2018, 09:33
  #1198 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Brisvegas
Posts: 3,878
Likes: 0
Received 246 Likes on 106 Posts
The challenger job is for 100-200 stick hours a year though which is less than part time. But the challenge is someone who would take this considering they could get 2-300k overseas with the same qualifications.
Really?

The quoted salary is for FO.

So where do they pay Challenger FOs $200-300K?
Icarus2001 is online now  
Old 15th Aug 2018, 10:19
  #1199 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: sincity
Posts: 1,195
Received 33 Likes on 17 Posts
Originally Posted by Icarus2001
Really?

The quoted salary is for FO.

So where do they pay Challenger FOs $200-300K?
Tis but a TR and a few bowls of noodles away
maggot is offline  
Old 15th Aug 2018, 19:33
  #1200 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2017
Location: Global Citizen
Posts: 144
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by maggot
Tis but a TR and a few bowls of noodles away


PS it’s certainly not Oz
stormfury is offline  


Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service

Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.