Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific Airline and RPT Rumours & News in Australia, enZed and the Pacific

Pilot shortage

Old 27th Jul 2018, 10:18
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Originally Posted by CurtainTwitcher
Isn't Australia different though?/sarc

Surely as we write this HR are formulating the next scare campaign, to be eagerly shared at coffee shops Australia wide?
What will it be this time? Outsourced flying, base closures or even a 'terminal decline'? Carried by the 'influencers' and cowards to flight decks industry wide this has been normal practice, all predicated on unlimited supply.
Pilots finally have a long sought after opportunity to remind airline management just who contributes the operating revenue.

For airline managers, very reluctantly waking to the reality that globalisation and markets work both ways: The market will clear, dear manager, when the input price rises, pilot conditions (including salary) must rise
For the more academically inclined, what is the relationship between Operating Revenue and pilots and which is the independent variable and which is the dependent?

Last edited by Rated De; 27th Jul 2018 at 10:42.
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Old 27th Jul 2018, 21:48
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Originally Posted by pilotchute
The USA is the only country that cares about pilots having a degree. Emirates does ha e a crewing problem but you don't meet the mins for them. Qatar don't seem to ever have a shortage of applicants.

I assume by you referring to your "ATP" you are US based? There are bucket loads of jobs in the usa now. Why look overseas?
not from the us..
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Old 28th Jul 2018, 05:14
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There is no pilot shortage. There is a shortage of suitably qualified i.e. hours or type rated pilots. Aircrew numbers are based on projected growth in aviation. In particular, the increase in point-to-point, narrow-body aircraft, with greater range.

From 2015 to 2030, China, India, and the remainder of Asia-Pacific will add 2.1 billion (or 89%) of the nearly 2.4 billion new entrants to the existing 3.2 billion person global middle class. By 2030, presumably China will add around 800 million to the middle class and India more than 900 million alone. This is a considerable volume of people who will travel.

As cASK reduces, a result of (but not limited to) newer technologies and scale economies - this will only see significant growth in the demand in air transportation.


References: Brookings. 2017. THE UNPRECEDENTED EXPANSION OF THE GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS. [ONLINE] Available at: https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content...ddle-class.pdf.
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Old 28th Jul 2018, 07:54
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There is no pilot shortage. There is a shortage of suitably qualified i.e. hours or type rated pilots.
This is the nuance of the situation. Plenty of aspiring wannabe aviators at the base of the pyramid. Huge demand at the top. Training rate and experience (time dependant) are the choke points, the rate limiting step of the entire industry is now training.

Demand expansion at the top of the passenger pyramid (B737/A320 size and above) vastly exceeds the rate of the system ability to train pilots and give them the required experience at the bottom. Anyone who can progress doesn't want to stay as an instructor training PPL/CPL longer than necessary, so there will be a perpetual shortage of instructors. Retiree's for training? Not many want to go back to sitting next to someone trying to kill them, even if they can even hold a medical.

For decades the industry has collectively saved a fortune in training, denying the accumulation of experience to the base. Instead it slowly consuming the human capital of experience as the pilot demographic aged. Now that capital is retiring. It is not retained by the organisation, it just vanishes from the industry. "Experience" simply cannot be conjured from thin air, it a function of time, there is no way around it. There is no commercially viable training program that can implant 5,000 or 10,000 hours of experience into a 500 hour pilots to make them ready to be a jet Captain. Airlines have had experience in spades and took it for granted, until it started retiring en masse.

The signs of this impending situation were evident in 2007/08, however the GFC gave the industry leverage over pilots and suppressed the signal to start large training programs. Little to no succession planning was done in the West.

So really there are three issues:
  • Retirements taking experience out of the industry
  • Capacity expansion requiring more experience
  • Training limitations at the bottom
Originally Posted by Andrias
Based on Boeing's projections - 790,000 Pilots required over the next 20 years. Is it possible that they might be basing their projection on the individual that has the equivalent qualifications and skills (i.e. Theory and Hours) to fly their aircraft? And Airbus manufactured aircraft as well for that matter (i.e. 1,500 hours, ATPL passes and possibly type rated)?
ICAO's General Secretary answered your question in Feb 2018
Our new numbers have revealed that no fewer than 620,000 pilots will be needed by 2036 to fly the
world’s 100-seat-and-larger aircraft, and that 80 percent of these future aviators will be new pilots
who are not yet flying today
.
Address by the Secretary General of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Dr. Fang Liu, “Civil Aviation: An Engine of Economic Development”, page 7


Thought experiment. What is the average time someone can achieve a command of A320 / B737 from the first moment they the moment they start off the street the process of learning to fly in the commercial viable way? Not talking about the Ace's but an average pilot. How far will that put us into the cycle towards 2036/2038?

Last edited by CurtainTwitcher; 28th Jul 2018 at 21:04. Reason: spelling
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Old 28th Jul 2018, 09:48
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Originally Posted by Andrias
I think I am starting to understand this whole 'pilot shortage' concept. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

Based on Boeing's projections - 790,000 Pilots required over the next 20 years. Is it possible that they might be basing their projection on the individual that has the equivalent qualifications and skills (i.e. Theory and Hours) to fly their aircraft? And Airbus manufactured aircraft as well for that matter (i.e. 1,500 hours, ATPL passes and possibly type rated)?

And their projection does not include the individuals that are have just qualified as 'Pilot' i.e. CPL and 200 odd hours - entry level. Is this a possibility or not?

I only ask because looking at it that way might make sense why there's still are a considerable amount of individuals graduating with a CPL/IR but into a pool of about 100 other individuals (example).

Whereas the individual passing the 1,500 hour mark and passing ATPL exams, 'graduates' into a pool of say 10 (example) and that is where the shortage is.

It just seems as though they are raising the importance of a shortage but rather a shortage of those on type because there doesn't seem to be a shortage of those flying 152s and 172s.

They should actually then caption it as PILOT SHORTAGE FOR MTOW OF X
In the US, there's a shortage of Student Pilots, Private Pilots, Instrument Pilots, Commercial Pilots, Flight Instructors, ATPs, and Military Pilots.
In Canada, it is similar, but not as bad I think.
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Old 28th Jul 2018, 11:23
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Originally Posted by atpcliff
In the US, there's a shortage of Student Pilots, Private Pilots, Instrument Pilots, Commercial Pilots, Flight Instructors, ATPs, and Military Pilots.
In Canada, it is similar, but not as bad I think.

atpcliff,

Is this the data to which you refer ?

https://www.faa.gov/data_research/av...en_statistics/
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Old 28th Jul 2018, 13:16
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Originally Posted by bafanguy
atpcliff,

Is this the data to which you refer ?

https://www.faa.gov/data_research/av...en_statistics/
No. Those statistics are not even close to being realistic...the reason is that they count EVERYONE who is training to be a pilot. Since the US has the most airspace, airports, airplanes and flight schools, many foreign airlines train their cadets here, and many foreigners come here for flight training. There are MANY flight schools with a very high percentage of their students who are foreign: They cannot work as CFIs, and cannot work for the US carriers. That is one of the reasons the CFI shortage is so bad...a lot of students need them, and many of the newly minted Comm/Inst pilots dont have a passport or greencard, so can't work as CFIs...
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Old 28th Jul 2018, 15:29
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Originally Posted by atpcliff
No. Those statistics are not even close to being realistic...the reason is that they count EVERYONE who is training to be a pilot. ...many foreign airlines train their cadets here, and many foreigners come here for flight training. There are MANY flight schools with a very high percentage of their students who are foreign...
atpcliff,

I've seen that lots of foreign students train here then leave. Do you know of any data base that doesn't include/removes the foreign students ?
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Old 28th Jul 2018, 19:57
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Originally Posted by CurtainTwitcher
Thought experiment. What is the average time someone can achieve a command of A320 / B737 from the first moment they the moment they start off the streett the process of learning to fly in the commercial viable way? Not talking about the Ace's but an average pilot. How far will that put us into the cycle towards 2036/2038?
Not sure about average but in parts of the world it is 3000-4000 hours and then command training, at 900-1000 hours a year plus the initial induction etc. So realistically from when someone starts after training it’s 3-6 years to command. Depending on the country and airline. Welcome to the world of LCC.
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Old 29th Jul 2018, 00:42
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Originally Posted by Global Aviator


Not sure about average but in parts of the world it is 3000-4000 hours and then command training, at 900-1000 hours a year plus the initial induction etc. So realistically from when someone starts after training it’s 3-6 years to command. Depending on the country and airline. Welcome to the world of LCC.

in the USA at the regional Jet level, it’s ATP Mins to join as an FO (1500 hours) and then about a year later forced upgrade to captain after hitting 1000 hours part 121 (airline) ops.

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Old 29th Jul 2018, 10:17
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So about four years in the USA then?
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Old 29th Jul 2018, 11:26
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Originally Posted by 73qanda
So about four years in the USA then?
yeah maybe a shave under 4 years for someone starting out today and going to one of the sausage factories and hustling flying as much as they can along the way,
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Old 29th Jul 2018, 12:05
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yeah maybe a shave under 4 years for someone starting out today and going to one of the sausage factories and hustling flying as much as they can along the way,
Beats the old days where for example the seniority list in PANAM and some major legacy airlines meant you could be in the RH seat for 15-20 years waiting for your number to get to the top. I recall watching PANAM crews at Guam. Most of the first officers and flight engineers were well over 50 and cabin crew too. .
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Old 29th Jul 2018, 12:09
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Originally Posted by Tee Emm
Beats the old days where for example the seniority list in PANAM and some major legacy airlines meant you could be in the RH seat for 15-20 years waiting for your number to get to the top. I recall watching PANAM crews at Guam. Most of the first officers and flight engineers were well over 50 and cabin crew too. .
it’s cyclical. Up until 18 months ago or so it was an 11-12 year upgrade at American Eagle where I fly. Now it’s as soon as you have the 1000 hours part 121. It will probably go back to a long upgrade once this cycle finishes in about 8-10 years.
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Old 29th Jul 2018, 21:31
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Originally Posted by Tee Emm
Beats the old days where for example the seniority list in PANAM and some major legacy airlines meant you could be in the RH seat for 15-20 years waiting for your number to get to the top. I recall watching PANAM crews at Guam. Most of the first officers and flight engineers were well over 50 and cabin crew too. .
Keep in mind Havick is talking about 4 years to the left seat of a RJ at a Regional airline. Not a legacy carrier. Including the degree required under most circumstances (not Havicks or most other flow through agreements) - 11 years is probably the fastest.
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Old 29th Jul 2018, 22:10
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Originally Posted by JPJP


Keep in mind Havick is talking about 4 years to the left seat of a RJ at a Regional airline. Not a legacy carrier. Including the degree required under most circumstances (not Havicks or most other flow through agreements) - 11 years is probably the fastest.
correct, time to a legacy there’s probably 2-3 years play each way.
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Old 29th Jul 2018, 23:36
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It's all about your position on the list and the age demographic of the Captains. If you're at the back of the hiring boom and the left seaters are mostly in their 40s then you've got a long wait ahead. LCCs are usually quicker because of turnover of pilots as they move on and expansion.

At the moment QF should be a quicker than normal (for them) upgrade as their Captains are mostly in their 50s and they're hiring again in big numbers. Someone joining now might sit for a few years twiddling their thumbs and then move up fairly rapidly.

Jetstar and Virgin Captains are mostly younger as they joined in the early 2000s got quick upgrades as the companies ramped up and are looking at another 15-20 years until they retire. Around 15 years ago Virgin Blue had less time to upgrade on the B737 than Sunstate did on the DHC8.

Air Canada and Air New Zealand were the longest at around 20 years but would probably be a bit less for someone joining today.
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Old 30th Jul 2018, 03:13
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As a matter of interest, for a RAAF pilot graduate with typically 210 hours, how many years from graduation and what approximate flying hours would he/she expect to have before getting a command on a C-17 Globemaster 3? How about a 737 BBJ with 34 (VIP) Squadron?
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Old 30th Jul 2018, 03:50
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From talking to colleagues in Qantas who have served in the RAAF, the supervision and continuous feedback that a new RAAF graduate receives over the first few years of their career would exceed anything a newly minted CPL cadet gets by a very significant margin. It’s such a different regime as to be barely comparable. Everything from the initial selection of the RAAF student through to their eventual upgrade path is very different to that which the average CPL/ cadet goes through. The only similarity is that both involve aeroplanes.
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Old 30th Jul 2018, 04:28
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Originally Posted by Keg
From talking to colleagues in Qantas who have served in the RAAF, the supervision and continuous feedback that a new RAAF graduate receives over the first few years of their career would exceed anything a newly minted CPL cadet gets by a very significant margin. It’s such a different regime as to be barely comparable. Everything from the initial selection of the RAAF student through to their eventual upgrade path is very different to that which the average CPL/ cadet goes through. The only similarity is that both involve aeroplanes.

Yep, the old chestnut, which never helps our cause and is more often than not used to assist the race to the bottom. You can put a young adult into the cockpit of a fighter after 200 hours blah-blah. The RAAF has enviable training and supervision and quality applicants. As well as a high wash-out rate.

That said, I have seen a number of ex-mil guys struggle with the ambiguities of civilian command training. It's hard to soar with eagles whilst flying amongst turkeys for some I guess. There can be a high standard required in civilian command training with poor quality training and instructors ( I did a TC course in under a week and it was the worst training I've seen ). I'd imagine this could be a struggle for some guys despite their superb training opportunities in the military.

LCC command training can be at such a bare-bones regulatory standards that the above doesn't apply.

Last edited by Gnadenburg; 30th Jul 2018 at 04:40.
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