Pilot shortage
EK is needing somewhere between 800 and 900 pilots this year. They have used a contract agency before, a few years ago when finding bodies was a challenge. The days of shaking a tree and finding unlimited qualified pilots is long gone.
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EK is needing somewhere between 800 and 900 pilots this year. They have used a contract agency before, a few years ago when finding bodies was a challenge. The days of shaking a tree and finding unlimited qualified pilots is long gone.
Naturally they will spare no expense to keep cost down. When Dubai world is full of un-crewed aircraft then perhaps through the haze of a desert wind they will change, but like their counterparts in the antipodes lower labour unit cost is the obsession!
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He also said his regional currently has a 96% success rate for those who are interviewed - not sure how I feel about that, good for pilots but does make me question safety
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the shortage in the US will be so bad that even if every Qantas, Virgin, Jetstar and Tiger pilot moved over they will still be grounding planes" - he even said he would envision a future which saw the Majors offering E3 Visa's. He said the data he had shown that by 2020 the number of new pilots per year wouldn't even cover retirements, let alone expansion, pilots moving to Asia/ME etc. Very interesting times ahead.
Pilots in Australia, particularly those at Qantas with a contract up for negotiation may want to quietly stop and ask themselves:
- Is Australia any different to every other Western economy?
- Has management quietly got 457 visas for a reason of controlling supply?
- Is the Network announcement designed to 'spook' pilots?
- Is Jetconnect to 'spook' pilots?
- Has recruiting and adversarial IR/HR been predicated on unlimited supply?
The Achilles heel for Qantas is that commuting contracts where living in Australia and working away, a bit like miners did a few years ago is a real possibility. Forward strategic thinking Asian carriers are already addressing this, contacts suggest very lucrative commuting contracts are imminent.
Take away the Australian basing and Qantas is at best a pick among a few airlines.
The data sets we have reviewed suggest strongly that an economic downturn will not do a great deal to address the demographic structural shortage.
Pilots in Australia, particularly those at Qantas with a contract up for negotiation may want to quietly stop and ask themselves:
The Achilles heel for Qantas is that commuting contracts where living in Australia and working away, a bit like miners did a few years ago is a real possibility. Forward strategic thinking Asian carriers are already addressing this, contacts suggest very lucrative commuting contracts are imminent.
Take away the Australian basing and Qantas is at best a pick among a few airlines.
Pilots in Australia, particularly those at Qantas with a contract up for negotiation may want to quietly stop and ask themselves:
- Is Australia any different to every other Western economy?
- Has management quietly got 457 visas for a reason of controlling supply?
- Is the Network announcement designed to 'spook' pilots?
- Is Jetconnect to 'spook' pilots?
- Has recruiting and adversarial IR/HR been predicated on unlimited supply?
The Achilles heel for Qantas is that commuting contracts where living in Australia and working away, a bit like miners did a few years ago is a real possibility. Forward strategic thinking Asian carriers are already addressing this, contacts suggest very lucrative commuting contracts are imminent.
Take away the Australian basing and Qantas is at best a pick among a few airlines.
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As I understand a few years ago the consensus of the EK guys was “when hell freezes over”. Now it seems they are a lot more tepid about it. I don’t necessarily think it would matter if the ME3 didn’t offer such a thing because enough disruptors exist much closer to home.
Last edited by Jeps; 5th Mar 2018 at 22:32.
Pilot shortage sceptics rejoice!
Since the start of this year I have been told I can't interview with one employer because "your IPC has less than 6 months currency". Another told me when I have done 150 hours in six months I can interview.
I can see how these things make me ineligible to fly a turbo prop!!
Since the start of this year I have been told I can't interview with one employer because "your IPC has less than 6 months currency". Another told me when I have done 150 hours in six months I can interview.
I can see how these things make me ineligible to fly a turbo prop!!
Correct for the USA for sure on the first statement. The attrition out the top is so high that laying off people in the inevitable economic hiccup will likely be unnecessary for quite a while at the career-destination level.
As for management awareness, what can ya say ? Every airline knows the exact moment a pilot will retire under existing regulatory structure the moment he's hired. And companies, unions and trade organizations collect this data so EVERYONE knows the score. Yet they've done nothing to prepare despite the evidence of a coming tsunami ?
So now they're scrambling ? They'll have to look elsewhere than me for any sympathy. Maybe they'll be able to overcome their misjudgement (I'm being kind) considering the infrastructure we have here in the USA...and have had for 50+ years at the university level, to say nothing of the countless commercial training operations:
About The Aviation Accreditation Board International
Home - University Aviation Association
While the case can be made that it's not the airlines' job to produce applicants at the front gate, they do have fleets to crew. Do they want to keep them crewed when the long range data has shown for decades a rather significant deficit was inevitable ? Some carriers here are trying to regain some equilibrium by spawning new blood into the field. Time will reveal their success.
Of course, given the bad press the career has gotten in recent years, getting people to jump into the fray at any level might be a bit uphill ? That's a whole other subject.
Maybe the sky-is-falling shortage, media attention will move some fence sitters in a necessary direction.
In the meantime, SEND...US...MORE...AUSSIES !
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Originally Posted by bafanguy
Of course, given the bad press the career has gotten in recent years, getting people to jump into the fray at any level might be a bit uphill ? That's a whole other subject.
Aviation is not something that you fall into. From the start it takes a lot of determination and a bloody mindedness to achieve, and those people are obviously still there. However, many who have the curiosity or interest probably "fall into" something else like IT where you can be paid as-you-go to learn a new language, skill or software stack and from which it is hard to get out of. These provide immediate feedback and monetary reward for learning and effort. Aviation is the long game, with the potential for high long term financial rewards, commensurate with the high upfront risks.
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Pilot shortage sceptics rejoice!
Since the start of this year I have been told I can't interview with one employer because "your IPC has less than 6 months currency". Another told me when I have done 150 hours in six months I can interview.
I can see how these things make me ineligible to fly a turbo prop!!
Since the start of this year I have been told I can't interview with one employer because "your IPC has less than 6 months currency". Another told me when I have done 150 hours in six months I can interview.
I can see how these things make me ineligible to fly a turbo prop!!
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Leadership and CRM
Yeah because why would you ever need to lead a small team as a CN (BA9, UA1549, QF32, OO-DLL).
Leadership is an essential element of effective CRM - has been for a while. https://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/c...9790006598.pdf
“It is important to establish the difference between leadership, which is acquired, and authority, which is assigned. An optimal situation exists when the two are combined. Leadership involves teamwork, and the quality of a leader depends on the success of the leader’s relationship with the team. Leadership skills should be developed for all through proper training; such training is essential in aircraft operations where junior crew members are sometimes called upon to adopt a leadership role throughout the normal performance of their duties. This may occur when the co-pilot must take over from an absent or incapacitated captain, or when a junior flight attendant must control the passengers in a particular cabin section.”
https://publicapps.caa.co.uk/docs/33/CAP719.PDF
Leadership is an essential element of effective CRM - has been for a while. https://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/c...9790006598.pdf
“It is important to establish the difference between leadership, which is acquired, and authority, which is assigned. An optimal situation exists when the two are combined. Leadership involves teamwork, and the quality of a leader depends on the success of the leader’s relationship with the team. Leadership skills should be developed for all through proper training; such training is essential in aircraft operations where junior crew members are sometimes called upon to adopt a leadership role throughout the normal performance of their duties. This may occur when the co-pilot must take over from an absent or incapacitated captain, or when a junior flight attendant must control the passengers in a particular cabin section.”
https://publicapps.caa.co.uk/docs/33/CAP719.PDF
Yeah, but you don’t know, on that particular day, if the HR numpties are looking for a leader, or a follower! How are you supposed to know? We all know that a Capt needs to display leadership, but what if you’re there to be a junior SO? “We want this bloke to tow the line, not overrule the boss!”
Storm fury, what was DeltaT supposed to do?!?
Storm fury, what was DeltaT supposed to do?!?
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I completely agree pilotchute, leadership is learnt over many years but that does not mean said company shouldn’t expect to see some basic leadership skills during an FO interview - I understand cabin crew recruitment also do this type of activity.
The fact that DeltaT was actually at the interview demonstrates he likely had all the knowledge and attributes to get through such a scenario (pending the odd HR wowser).
Unsing the fundamentals, aviate navigate - communicate, should be enough to demonstrate leadership in whatever desert crash survival / fix Apollo 13 / rebuild the Hindenburg scenario they use that day.
Aviate - this is the primary task (whatever your team has been asked to do). Determine what actions are needed to get from A to B - you are usually told what they want you to get the team to do. In determining the plan, ask your teammates for suggestions or input, they may have done something similar or be well versed in the task (CRM?).
Navigate - your team now has a plan, your job is to direct their collective actions so they conform to the agreed plan. If you note things going awry, voice this (as the assigned leader) and get them back on track.
Communicate - detail the requirements of the task to the team, get their input, outline the plan (chronologically, in steps) then communicate to the team when you identify things are proceeding as planned or if you need them to tweak them to achieve the required task.
Given I have no idea on what the actual scenario or requirements were, this is merely my take on it with minimal information (dangerous, I know). Maybe HR were looking for some sort of ‘Leonidas at Thermopylae’ type leadership but from my experience with these types of excercises the panel is looking for a basic plan that is communicated, commenced and monitored by the assigned leader.
Just my $0.02
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My NASA comment was just a bit of a dig at companies flying old school TP's expecting astronaut qualified crew. The hiring mins have come down but the expectation of HR hasn't really followed.
Asking someone with 2000 plus hours questions about adherence to SOPs and value adding to the company is relevant. Asking those same questions to a GR3 instructor who got his cpl 6 months ago is pretty pointless.
Asking someone with 2000 plus hours questions about adherence to SOPs and value adding to the company is relevant. Asking those same questions to a GR3 instructor who got his cpl 6 months ago is pretty pointless.