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Pilot shortage

Old 8th Jan 2018, 00:12
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Morno,

Sorry bud. You made the decision to increase your bank balance and satisfy your SJS.

The rest of us that stayed home worked out that flying pays for our lifestyle outside of work. Camping, fishing, boating, etc etc.

Whilst doing shark patrol to cooly ain’t exactly what many had in mind when they started this career, that’s exactly what commercial flying is. A - B x 1000 safely.

There will always be a 146 or a Fokker waiting for you with a quick left seat when you get back.

If you ever think it’s unfair, perhaps you shouldn’t have left? Also what relevance does long haul ops on a bigbird to foreign regions have compared with short hops up and down the coast with quick turns and a domestic career?

Last edited by The Green Goblin; 8th Jan 2018 at 00:55.
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Old 8th Jan 2018, 01:19
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Seniority is fine until you are in your 50’s & your airline collapses. Then it sucks. Particularly as you watch the remaining carrier take up the extra flying & those fortunate enough to be in that airline move ahead at your expense. Very hard to go back to the right seat or back seat from a financial perspective when you are that age.
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Old 8th Jan 2018, 02:38
  #523 (permalink)  
 
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Oakape, that's similar to a Hong Kong operator that is putting pressure on some of the seniors.


Not very many sideways steps, but that downward one is a dooozy!
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Old 8th Jan 2018, 08:01
  #524 (permalink)  
 
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My reference to interested pilot's returning to Australia wasn't to QF -or VA mainline- If they have enough upgradeable candidates then of course they should be offered an opportunity to upgrade before DEC. Given such small fleets and glacial growth/attrition that is the only way to do it.
What I was referring to when mentioning pay was Regional Operations in the LHS rather than the RHS. For an experienced expat it 'may' be an acceptable pay cut to the LHS but definitely not the RHS. I stand by my assertion that Seniority can be a double edged sword but generally favours the employer.
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Old 8th Jan 2018, 13:11
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A little left field, but current Qantas pilots on furlough working abroad will be progressively returning to Qantas and Australia. As part of their career progress, they have achieved promotion to the LHS and gained invaluable experience. Qantas will benefit from their experience, so the demarcation of inside or outside of Australia are blurred in reality. There likely won't be any demand for DEC because Qantas already has very experienced crews.
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Old 8th Jan 2018, 22:11
  #526 (permalink)  
 
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Once an expat, always an expat, unless you are young and find that being in your early 20s with jet time gives you a leg up in the selection process if you want to come home after a couple of years overseas.

Get used to the expat package, stick around for the upgrade and the years have rolled by. When the next wave of recruitment starts you may be on your 30s, and suddenly 15 years in the right seat doesn't seem so appealing, with a pay cut and very possibly a family to support.

Towards the end of your career, if you are sick of long haul and living in Asia or the Middle East, are financially secure and just want to get home then DEC may be possible with a smaller operator who would welcome your experience and know that you would stick around instead of leaving as soon as the big boys open the doors. Mine transfers or night freight in older jets could be fun with a Queensland base and the children having left home.
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Old 8th Jan 2018, 23:17
  #527 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Metro man
Once an expat, always an expat, unless you are young and find that being in your early 20s with jet time gives you a leg up in the selection process if you want to come home after a couple of years overseas.

Get used to the expat package, stick around for the upgrade and the years have rolled by. When the next wave of recruitment starts you may be on your 30s, and suddenly 15 years in the right seat doesn't seem so appealing, with a pay cut and very possibly a family to support.

Towards the end of your career, if you are sick of long haul and living in Asia or the Middle East, are financially secure and just want to get home then DEC may be possible with a smaller operator who would welcome your experience and know that you would stick around instead of leaving as soon as the big boys open the doors. Mine transfers or night freight in older jets could be fun with a Queensland base and the children having left home.
That sounds miserable.

Aviation really is a rubbish career
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Old 9th Jan 2018, 00:40
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Aviation really is a rubbish career
It didn't use to be, but it is now.
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Old 9th Jan 2018, 00:45
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The smartest guys joined QF/JQ group and went on LWOP. I know a guy that did this soon after joining, he went and lived the ‘big jet LHS’ dream all over the world. He’s now paid a squillion as a wide body skipper and lives in Aus and is mid 30s. When his east coast command comes up he will do that and go part time. Some played a really smart game some didn’t. I’m envious of how well he did. Good on him though.

LWOP facility and likelihood wasn’t in my thinking when choosing my employer, it should have been. At least I didn’t join CX or EK. Now that’s a **** sandwich that just keeps on giving!

It’s interesting how the QF group have managed the LWOP scenario. Nearly like a ready reserve. A lot of guys I know have left employers over the years as they’ve wanted to chase the overseas stuff but wouldn’t have quit if they could have done a LWOP scenario. Most of them would come back but can’t as they’ve lost their spot.

Last edited by Berealgetreal; 9th Jan 2018 at 02:58. Reason: Rambling on
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Old 9th Jan 2018, 03:08
  #530 (permalink)  
 
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Every Pilot in AUS/NZ knows how seniority driven the Airlines here are. Especially the Legacy Carriers.

Some chose to chase the money and progression abroad, some slogged it out in GA/Regional's waiting to get on the Seniority list ASAP. Others (like myself), took a halfway approach and kept a current C.V. in back home and raced back the moment a job was offered, turning down a Command in the process.

We've each made our beds in Aviation, and we need to accept that.

In all reality, DEC's likely will get offered in AUS at some point in time, they just wont be at QF.

Talking to those who have (or are currently) doing the Expat gig, there's really 2 "Windows" to come back home to a Legacy Carrier. When you're young enough (Early 30's) to still have a decent Career back home, or when you're old enough (50+) that you've gotten the LHS out of your system, the Mortgage paid off and the Kids moved out. I've met a few late in life S/O's who really don't care what they earn now, it's all about the Lifestyle.

Unfortunately, a lot of guys try to move home in their mid 40's because the Wife/Kids are sick of China or the Desert, but that's about the worst time to move.
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Old 9th Jan 2018, 07:19
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Heard on the grapevine the Cobham EBA vote got an overwhealming NO vote.... there seems to be another disturbance in the force for the divide and conquer method of employing pilots. Interesting times
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Old 9th Jan 2018, 09:07
  #532 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by mikk_13
That sounds miserable.

Aviation really is a rubbish career
And that’s the rub. The numbers do eb and flow a bit, but over the last 2 decades or more the participation rate in the profession has decreased by a factor of 10!

Not necessarily a single reason for it, but in a world where air travel is now common place for the average punter, it simply doesn’t hold the “magic” for the same number of young people. Add to this the consistent downward pressure on T&C’s, it really has been the ultimate own goal by the shortsighted Numptys running airline HR/IR departments.
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Old 9th Jan 2018, 17:57
  #533 (permalink)  
 
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Yes, there is a shortage of cheap pilots to fly expensive airplanes!
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Old 9th Jan 2018, 20:36
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With Network expanding in WA with larger aircraft, is there any chance this will affect QF group allocation of 737s and pilots in the west?

The days of joining QF into the RHS of a 737 in Perth might be numbered.
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Old 9th Jan 2018, 20:43
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Supposedly not Dale.
The loss of the mining work is apparently being offset by an increase in East-west 737 services and additional international flying out of Perth.

Whether that ends up being the case is anyone’s guess.
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Old 9th Jan 2018, 23:06
  #536 (permalink)  
 
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And because those A320's will be used mostly as replacements for the F100's, a lot of which are rapidly approaching the end of their useful lives.
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Old 10th Jan 2018, 01:11
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Heard on the grapevine the Cobham EBA vote got an overwhealming NO vote.... there seems to be another disturbance in the force for the divide and conquer method of employing pilots. Interesting times

And what a debacle it appears to have been too. A rather emphatic NO despite there being an overwhelming feeling amongst some that this was a good deal that would be endorsed by the pilots without much resistance.


How on earth could there have been such a huge disconnect between what was agreed in principle and what the pilots were prepared to accept? Where there is smoke there is fire I would suggest .


The independents are going to get rather busy in the coming weeks me thinks.
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Old 10th Jan 2018, 01:15
  #538 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by mikk_13
That sounds miserable.

Aviation really is a rubbish career
You sound as though you are suffering depression?

I'm unsure of metroman's lot, but the only rubbish consistent is pilots. You work hard and make it somewhere and there is tragic ease of which people will do your job for less and without thought.

When at AN, desperados came home and were VB training captains for less than what we were paid as F/O's at AN. Now I imagine VB training capts are still paid significantly less than QF training captains? So while these clowns paid for their ratings and bellowed the unsustainability of domestic wages, this must be egg of the face now considering the long careers of QF pilots.

And now, Aussie pilots flock to Asia for the big money jobs and get paid a whopping 10k AUD less a month than my current contract. Then after a short time, they realise they don't have the lifestyle you do, and they run home and live in Sunbury or Mascot claiming the Aussie lifestyle.

In my observation, the only consistent solution to all this is rigid standards. If you can be replaced by a dodo with ease, you will be. Nothing else seems to work. The dumbing down of standards slews the supply and demand back toward the employer who universally, seem to have an obliging regulator.
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Old 10th Jan 2018, 05:21
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Unfortunately, a lot of guys try to move home in their mid 40's because the Wife/Kids are sick of China or the Desert, but that's about the worst time to move.
Absolutely correct. At that stage you are unlikely to be financially secure, and still have high outgoings. The choice is often between a substantial pay increase as you upgrade to wide body Captain in your present job, or a substantial pay cut as you downgrade to narrow body first officer if you return. Add in moving and set up costs, together with possibly having to purchase property and the picture is quite bleak.

For mid to late 50s thing look much better. Someone of that age today, likely enjoyed the golden era of pay and conditions and spent enough time abroad to have accumulated substantial wealth. Children have probably left home and parents health issues are a draw factor. Driving down from the coast, doing a quick mine transfer or freight run and being home that night would appeal to many instead of ultra long haul, multiple time zone/minimum rest torture. As long as you’re not paying alimony to a first wife and trying to support a new family, the pay cut is quite manageable considering the lifestyle trade off.

Opportunities to do this occur when the top airlines recruit and suddenly operators such as Allance and Cobham find themselves short of Captains and senior F/Os.

Personally, I’ll retire in a low cost location such as Malaysia, Thailand or the Philippines for about 10 years and come back when I’m about 75.
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Old 10th Jan 2018, 19:52
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Over the next two decades, 87 new pilots will need to be trained and ready to fly a commercial airliner every day in order to meet our insatiable demand to travel by air.

That's one every 15 minutes.
Australian exceptionalism aside, airline IR refreshed from a few week's rest will be flat out on the next installment of their FEAR, UNCERTAINTY and DOUBT campaign.

Odds on it takes the form (in no particular order of preference);

  • Automated aircraft by 2025?
  • Subsidiary to get jets?
  • New visas for pilots?
  • A grounding and lockout?
Quietly despairing as the surround the water cooler and discuss the next potion to defer the inevitable paradigm shift coming to an airline new you: Terms and conditions and indeed their whole model of 'employee relations' is on the chopping block.
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