Pilot shortage
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P.S. Democracy as a system of government is not very good anyway, the ancient greeks tried it for 70 years before realising it was a race to the bottom and various other civilisations have tinkered with it over the centuries trying to get it right. With everyone having the vote, once you get a population with 50% on some form of welfare which ever party wants to get in will give that population what they want hence a race to the bottom where those not on welfare are punished financially and either leave the country or go on welfare.
...With everyone having the vote, once you get a population with 50% on some form of welfare which ever party wants to get in will give that population what they want hence a race to the bottom where those not on welfare are punished financially and either leave the country or go on welfare.
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If voting actually changed anything it would be illegal...
-Anon
Naturally there is no shortage in Australia!
Let us see the posturing of major player in this:
Almost amazingly;
Flight cancellations from Sydney to Canberra among worst in the country - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
With the unions on leave too, incredibly Dutton announces;
Wake up, you are again being played.
Panic a few pilots and open the contract 'negotiation'.
Wash, rinse and repeat!
-Anon
Naturally there is no shortage in Australia!
Let us see the posturing of major player in this:
- Qantas announces Jetconnect to be rolled into Australian network, on existing terms and conditions
- Subsidiary airline to get A320
Almost amazingly;
Flight cancellations from Sydney to Canberra among worst in the country - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
With the unions on leave too, incredibly Dutton announces;
Wake up, you are again being played.
Panic a few pilots and open the contract 'negotiation'.
Wash, rinse and repeat!
Or vote for the other mob next time
Voting for either major party will change nothing. Both will keep us plundering along a path of the mass immigration Ponzi scheme, and lack of investment and reform in the actual causes of current issues such as the one being “addressed” by Mr Dutton today.
The way I see it, the only parties that seem to want to address some or all of the larger issues pertaining to this, are the nationalist or protectionist types (One Nation / Australian Conservatives / Nxt) or the Pragmatists (Sustainable Australia)...
I could fix the problem with a lazy $500 million. That's basically all it needed for China to secure their future pilot requirements. We spend that about every 6 months keeping boat people out of our country, but fed, clothed and medicated in another country. Needless to say China doesn't have much of a boat people or immigration problem, little wonder they could afford investing in their pilot supply needs.
Many of the Cathay Pacific pilot group are highly disgruntled with their lot in life in Hong Kong at the moment, the airline has been tightening the thumb screws on them rather maliciously for years. All to do with CX management disasters with their fuel hedging gamble which they need to recoup from the pilots salary budget, but that's another story. The solution to the pilot shortage in Australia is simple, the Australian airlines should just offer the CX pilots the same money they are on in Hong Kong. Many of those are Aussies anyway, no need for a 457. Cathay Pacific would be happy to offload all those expensive expatriate pilots and replace them with cheap Asian pilots. The Asian carriers would be forced to up their own training program to cover their losses to CX; heck, change a few things at CASA and they might even send their cadets to Australia to do flight training. It's a win win for both the Australian Airline industry who get access to a large group of highly experienced and well trained pilots, and a win for GA flight training industry who pick up contracts or get a good price for selling their business to foreign interests.
There are some dash 8 fo gigs and 787 so's needed
I could fix the problem with a lazy $500 million
Now, the cynic in me reckons that CASA would see it as the purpose of their existence to take every one of those $500 million dollars off you somehow. Preferably before a pre start checklist was even commenced.
However, If the pilot shortage is so acute it necessitates work visas, then starting up a high quality flying training organisation in Australia should be one of the most lucrative investment desicions an individual (or company for that matter), could make in the current environment! That’s before you even take on contracts to train pilots for foreign airlines.
Why isn’t it, and why aren’t we (collectively as Unions, pilot / aviation organizations), doing anything to change it?
An entire industry is dying, in a country that has the weather and empty skies that should see it flourish, and a supposedly economically competent (yeah right) government is letting it happen!
Because there are too many self-interest groups who have their own social and political agenda for whatever nefarious reasons rather than a collective effort and all pulling together in the same direction in the national interest. It could be done. Just hire a recently retired Army General, give him the money and the authority and it will happen. Make each 457 pilot visa $100,000 and channel that money into the training of locals to do the job. As a nation we will have to sacrifice those insane $29 and $69 airfares seen so often being advertised by Airlines and be prepared to pay more sensible airfares that will support the training of locals to fly the planes.
And if I can reflect on my experience working in the China pilot training pipeline for 3 years. I only ever saw one document or regulatory reference with a CAAC logo on it, and that was the Training Approval certificate mounted in a prominent position of the 2nd floor of Training Department. How many documents with a CASA logo on it does an individual need to navigate before they get a CPL?
And if I can reflect on my experience working in the China pilot training pipeline for 3 years. I only ever saw one document or regulatory reference with a CAAC logo on it, and that was the Training Approval certificate mounted in a prominent position of the 2nd floor of Training Department. How many documents with a CASA logo on it does an individual need to navigate before they get a CPL?
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What are YOU going to do about this?
The subject has covered virtually all which needing to be discussed and said; whilst all have been prattling on Industry Management has been seriously lobbying, negotiating with Government to circumvent due process to allow the use of foreigners to take Australian Jobs.
Little mention will have been made of industry failure to ensure sufficient Australian pilots have been trained or of the abysmal failure of CASA’s role ensuring a viable aviation industry able to support a sustainable training system.
Nor will any airline operator management mention the looming shortage is not something which just happened but has been known and forecast for ten (10) years or more,
The question now remaining is what are pilot s going to do about this?
Airbus:
https://www.pilotcareernews.com/airb...ilots-by-2035/
In its first Global Services Forecast, Airbus has predicted that the number of new pilots needed by the year 2035 will top 560,000.
The report shares that the total number of active pilots needed by the year 2035, along with the need to replace flight-crew who retire during the next 20 years, will result in the need to train as many as 560,000 new pilots over this period. In terms of technical staff needed, the Airbus GSF predicts a requirement to train approximately 540,000 new technicians.
Boeing 2016 Pilot & Technician Outlook:
www.boeing.com/resources/boeingdotcom/commercial/.../pilottechnicianoutlook.pdf
Refer Post 103 (Tuck Mach) 10th Dec 2016 with comments + Posts 109, 113, and definitely post 127/148 &149.
Post 155:
Much of that which is written here is correct as is the thoughts espoused by Tuck Mach about the history.
Particularly
Quote:
Employers will keep trying, sparing no expense not to raise terms and conditions which is why pilots (and others within the aviation industry) need to get the pen out, the phones ringing berating your local MP and Senators.
If we do not no one else will but the employers will continue to circumvent, abuse and manipulate the rules/system any way they can for THEIR, and ONLY THEIR benefit!
The AFAP are well and truly aware what is going on however, write ring or email the President, the Executive Director, your local council members today, not tomorrow, TODAY! (or ring, write of call whatever organisation/Union you choose to have representing You)
President AFAP: CAPTAIN DAVID BOOTH 03 9928 5737
Executive Director: SIMON LUTTON 03 9928 5737
Email: [email protected]
AFAP: https://www.afap.org.au/contact
Equally, get on the phone, lift your pen or email your local MP and all Your State Senators. That is your members of YOUR Parliament
Little mention will have been made of industry failure to ensure sufficient Australian pilots have been trained or of the abysmal failure of CASA’s role ensuring a viable aviation industry able to support a sustainable training system.
Nor will any airline operator management mention the looming shortage is not something which just happened but has been known and forecast for ten (10) years or more,
The question now remaining is what are pilot s going to do about this?
Airbus:
https://www.pilotcareernews.com/airb...ilots-by-2035/
In its first Global Services Forecast, Airbus has predicted that the number of new pilots needed by the year 2035 will top 560,000.
The report shares that the total number of active pilots needed by the year 2035, along with the need to replace flight-crew who retire during the next 20 years, will result in the need to train as many as 560,000 new pilots over this period. In terms of technical staff needed, the Airbus GSF predicts a requirement to train approximately 540,000 new technicians.
Boeing 2016 Pilot & Technician Outlook:
www.boeing.com/resources/boeingdotcom/commercial/.../pilottechnicianoutlook.pdf
New Pilots required 2016-2035 = 617,000
“This is fundamentally different than anything you have seen in history. This is a strong long-term growth market.”
- Dennis Muilenburg, CEO Boeing
“This is fundamentally different than anything you have seen in history. This is a strong long-term growth market.”
- Dennis Muilenburg, CEO Boeing
Refer Post 103 (Tuck Mach) 10th Dec 2016 with comments + Posts 109, 113, and definitely post 127/148 &149.
Post 155:
Much of that which is written here is correct as is the thoughts espoused by Tuck Mach about the history.
Particularly
Quote:
Employers will keep trying, sparing no expense not to raise terms and conditions which is why pilots (and others within the aviation industry) need to get the pen out, the phones ringing berating your local MP and Senators.
If we do not no one else will but the employers will continue to circumvent, abuse and manipulate the rules/system any way they can for THEIR, and ONLY THEIR benefit!
The AFAP are well and truly aware what is going on however, write ring or email the President, the Executive Director, your local council members today, not tomorrow, TODAY! (or ring, write of call whatever organisation/Union you choose to have representing You)
President AFAP: CAPTAIN DAVID BOOTH 03 9928 5737
Executive Director: SIMON LUTTON 03 9928 5737
Email: [email protected]
AFAP: https://www.afap.org.au/contact
Equally, get on the phone, lift your pen or email your local MP and all Your State Senators. That is your members of YOUR Parliament
The only people who will help you are yourselves and it is YOUR Jobs, YOUR Future!
PPrune Comments, Dinner table or Bar Oratory whilst highly entertaining achieves little!
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whilst all have been prattling on Industry Management has been seriously lobbying, negotiating with Government to circumvent due process to allow the use of foreigners to take Australian Jobs.
Do not think for one minute labour importation is confined to 7 Eleven. Both sides of parliament want continued immigration running at 2.5 times historical averages to continue to 'growth in GDP narrative'. They will never focus on falling GDP per capita.
Welcome to the us and them world, it is a small club and we are not in it....
It matters little however as this move only actually generates a solution if supply exceeds demand. It does not!
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Gullibell stated; -
"they arrive on the course with reasonable English, and that improves throughout their training. When they get in the cockpit of a passenger jet operating on International routes their comprehension of English is much better than the older generation Captains, and that makes it a safer crew when they understand what ATC and other occupants of the airspace are saying."
Good Grief!!!!!
You sure about that!!
For what it is worth I've been doing long haul international for more than a quarter of a century and that is NOT what is happening. The standard of english from countries where english is the second or more distant language is deteriorating rapidly. Controllers constantly correcting pilot read backs but still getting incorrect replies. An inordinate amount of time spent by controllers ensuring said pilots read back correctly.
In parts of the world where english is not their first language many incorrect read backs are just ignored by ATC and chaos ensues on a regular basis as aircraft and their pilots do what they would like to think they are cleared for but haven't been actually cleared for. Yet it is so obvious what is happening, I can say to the other crew members 'they didn't read that back correctly and ATC hasn't corrected them", this will cause at best consternation and at worst an incident or accident, and thats exactly what happens.
"they arrive on the course with reasonable English, and that improves throughout their training. When they get in the cockpit of a passenger jet operating on International routes their comprehension of English is much better than the older generation Captains, and that makes it a safer crew when they understand what ATC and other occupants of the airspace are saying."
Good Grief!!!!!
You sure about that!!
For what it is worth I've been doing long haul international for more than a quarter of a century and that is NOT what is happening. The standard of english from countries where english is the second or more distant language is deteriorating rapidly. Controllers constantly correcting pilot read backs but still getting incorrect replies. An inordinate amount of time spent by controllers ensuring said pilots read back correctly.
In parts of the world where english is not their first language many incorrect read backs are just ignored by ATC and chaos ensues on a regular basis as aircraft and their pilots do what they would like to think they are cleared for but haven't been actually cleared for. Yet it is so obvious what is happening, I can say to the other crew members 'they didn't read that back correctly and ATC hasn't corrected them", this will cause at best consternation and at worst an incident or accident, and thats exactly what happens.
Sportsbet are down to $1.10 on a hull loss in the next 18 months.
Congratulations, to the winners who bet Globalisation and Australian Aviation would collide before 31/12/17, $4.57!
Congratulations, to the winners who bet Globalisation and Australian Aviation would collide before 31/12/17, $4.57!
Last edited by hoss; 28th Dec 2017 at 20:00.
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Pilot Shortage
Whilst I’m opposed to 457 visas the government has risked a significant backlash
Due to what must be an extreme SHORTAGE.
As others have said ad nauseam. But what many have failed to understand is that
Despite visas there is a GLOBAL shortage.
It’s simple supply and demand. The overpaid multi million dollar morons in management have been used to pilots queuing up en masse to fly.
Due to both arrogance and ineptitude they have failed to see that the youth of today are not choosing to learn to fly. Why?
High costs to train and management have created poorly paid subsidiaries that make it even less atttractive. Traditional jobs have become more flexible, higher paid and more desirable. It’s just not a cool Job anymore.
Working 5 to 6 early starts of day returns with no overnights and ****ty pay is not what people aspire too. Yes you may get to a mainline carrier but the odds are poor. The airlines have created this problem.
I personally don’t blame the younger generation. In fact I discourage any youngster to fly unless he or she fancies working very hard for very little money.
That’s the sad reality for most learner pilots.
But the fact remains that a mass of retirements are coming globally in a large chunk. It will be hard enough for the legacy carriers.
All a 457 Visa does is plug a hole in a wall for a short period of time.
Market forces and supply and demand ultimately prevail.
The irony is a non interventionist Liberal Government is using poor policy to stop market forces.
Won’t work forever.
Due to what must be an extreme SHORTAGE.
As others have said ad nauseam. But what many have failed to understand is that
Despite visas there is a GLOBAL shortage.
It’s simple supply and demand. The overpaid multi million dollar morons in management have been used to pilots queuing up en masse to fly.
Due to both arrogance and ineptitude they have failed to see that the youth of today are not choosing to learn to fly. Why?
High costs to train and management have created poorly paid subsidiaries that make it even less atttractive. Traditional jobs have become more flexible, higher paid and more desirable. It’s just not a cool Job anymore.
Working 5 to 6 early starts of day returns with no overnights and ****ty pay is not what people aspire too. Yes you may get to a mainline carrier but the odds are poor. The airlines have created this problem.
I personally don’t blame the younger generation. In fact I discourage any youngster to fly unless he or she fancies working very hard for very little money.
That’s the sad reality for most learner pilots.
But the fact remains that a mass of retirements are coming globally in a large chunk. It will be hard enough for the legacy carriers.
All a 457 Visa does is plug a hole in a wall for a short period of time.
Market forces and supply and demand ultimately prevail.
The irony is a non interventionist Liberal Government is using poor policy to stop market forces.
Won’t work forever.
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I certainly accept that there is an impending shortage of pilots. As for Australian pilots, there's a shirt load of them, just not in Australia. You can direct blame to Dixon's etc and you'd probably be right. How many CX pilots started out on the dash 8 in Australia? Obviously the bottom feeders are going to feel the shortage first and I assume that's happening now. Even with the issue of a 457 visa, a tour is Australia is only going to be for 1500 hours and then it's off to delta or united.
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Obviously the bottom feeders are going to feel the shortage first and I assume that's happening now. Even with the issue of a 457 visa, a tour is Australia is only going to be for 1500 hours and then it's off to delta or united.
Clearly airline management is panicked.
They know the shortage is not cyclical!
I certainly accept that there is an impending shortage of pilots. As for Australian pilots, there's a shirt load of them, just not in Australia. You can direct blame to Dixon's etc and you'd probably be right. How many CX pilots started out on the dash 8 in Australia? Obviously the bottom feeders are going to feel the shortage first and I assume that's happening now. Even with the issue of a 457 visa, a tour is Australia is only going to be for 1500 hours and then it's off to delta or united.
PPRuNe Handmaiden
I can't see many experienced pilots in Europe heading to Australia for a 2 year visa.
A few colleagues have asked about what's going on, after filling them in, they said it wasn't worth the effort.
A few colleagues have asked about what's going on, after filling them in, they said it wasn't worth the effort.