Pilot shortage
Very interesting John.
QF have tenaciously fought integration for decades, but to listen to the PR hype you could be mistaken in thinking they were investing in the next generation of Qantas pilots.
The reality of course is that the only way these graduates will see a career in mainline, is first to resign and then apply along with all the rest.
No mention of that in the slick little ad?
QF have tenaciously fought integration for decades, but to listen to the PR hype you could be mistaken in thinking they were investing in the next generation of Qantas pilots.
The reality of course is that the only way these graduates will see a career in mainline, is first to resign and then apply along with all the rest.
No mention of that in the slick little ad?
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Would be very interesting to see if iapa would publish a list of pilots by age, aircraft type, rank etc that could be used to project retirement rates over the next 10 years.
I would expect QF management to have this info already.
It would shine the light of truth on this conversation instead of the incessant speculation.
Then again this is pprune so possibly it would fuel the debate even more💕💤
I would expect QF management to have this info already.
It would shine the light of truth on this conversation instead of the incessant speculation.
Then again this is pprune so possibly it would fuel the debate even more💕💤
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I would expect QF management to have this info already.
Why else bring in the Jetconnect implied threat (real or not)?
And propose a subsidiary gets A320?
QF have tenaciously fought integration for decades, but to listen to the PR hype you could be mistaken in thinking they were investing in the next generation of Qantas pilots.
The reality of course is that the only way these graduates will see a career in mainline, is first to resign and then apply along with all the rest.
No mention of that in the slick little ad?
The reality of course is that the only way these graduates will see a career in mainline, is first to resign and then apply along with all the rest.
No mention of that in the slick little ad?
Of course it will be badged as something they thought of, with a catchy title, but their model for people management is done...Get a fork!
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I haven't read anything which supports that. As nearly as I can tell, the union's grievance is not a result of the amount offered, but that an offer was made unilaterally, while the contract (according to the grievance) requires that the union be consulted prior to any such ad-hoc offer.
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No point in getting too worked up about it.
I think the emerging structural shortage is causing the HR/IR people to be worked up.
It will take time but demographics is the surest bet there is! Airline HR/IR are on the wrong side of this one!
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Indamiddle
You raise a good point.
Talking to a manager yesterday brought up an interesting point.
There are a higher number of pilots retiring earlier than both AIPA or Qantas forecast. Approximately 1000 in a decade I was told. These numbers are in an AIPA email. 90-100 retirements per year at this stage with some years higher.
Qantas send pilots a letter approaching 65 asking what their intentions are. A great number don't reply and simply notify Qantas with the minimum notice. A recurrent theme is that many of the senior folk retiring make the statement that I got no notice when you grounded the airline, hence minimum notice is all you'll get in return. They are not required to telegraph their intentions to all and sundry.
A large factor is the increase in unforecast medical retirements particularly in Long Haul. Divisors Have been 185 for a long time on all fleets. Wasn't that long ago 170 was max for Only two BP. It then went to 175. QF didn't fly as far or for as long either.
Brave new world with the 787 flying close to 19-20 hour TOD, all night, doing the equivalent of 195+ credit hours infinatum.
Glad to see the scientific studies into passenger health are going ahead. Sure they will work backwards from the desired answer required and who gives a s$&@ about Crew health anyway. It's not a bonus metric is it?
In the future, Flying direct London and New York will have pilots working harder with more fatigue, more jet lag, more night flying with more stress and more sickness.
Regardless of intended retirements a greater number of pilots will have involuntary retirement forced upon them for medical reasons.
Of course the highest number of divorce occurs and is increasing on the Long Haul fleets.
Perhaps this is the Airline solution? Work the guys and gals so much harder for less money. When the marriages fall apart they will have to work to older age.
Genius. Who says the CEO isn't worth $25,000,000 a year.
You raise a good point.
Talking to a manager yesterday brought up an interesting point.
There are a higher number of pilots retiring earlier than both AIPA or Qantas forecast. Approximately 1000 in a decade I was told. These numbers are in an AIPA email. 90-100 retirements per year at this stage with some years higher.
Qantas send pilots a letter approaching 65 asking what their intentions are. A great number don't reply and simply notify Qantas with the minimum notice. A recurrent theme is that many of the senior folk retiring make the statement that I got no notice when you grounded the airline, hence minimum notice is all you'll get in return. They are not required to telegraph their intentions to all and sundry.
A large factor is the increase in unforecast medical retirements particularly in Long Haul. Divisors Have been 185 for a long time on all fleets. Wasn't that long ago 170 was max for Only two BP. It then went to 175. QF didn't fly as far or for as long either.
Brave new world with the 787 flying close to 19-20 hour TOD, all night, doing the equivalent of 195+ credit hours infinatum.
Glad to see the scientific studies into passenger health are going ahead. Sure they will work backwards from the desired answer required and who gives a s$&@ about Crew health anyway. It's not a bonus metric is it?
In the future, Flying direct London and New York will have pilots working harder with more fatigue, more jet lag, more night flying with more stress and more sickness.
Regardless of intended retirements a greater number of pilots will have involuntary retirement forced upon them for medical reasons.
Of course the highest number of divorce occurs and is increasing on the Long Haul fleets.
Perhaps this is the Airline solution? Work the guys and gals so much harder for less money. When the marriages fall apart they will have to work to older age.
Genius. Who says the CEO isn't worth $25,000,000 a year.
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I can back that up fearcampaign. Even the small group of LH drivers I know all of what you have said is accurate when applied to them. One has been forced to retire due to medical reasons (age 60) and the rest will be giving the minimum contractually agreed amount of notice and not a day more.
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the rest will be giving the minimum contractually agreed amount of notice and not a day more.
Mr Joyce and Mr Clifford are the darlings of the right wing, showing those unions. Those unions are nobbled and the domestic roll out of Jetconnect doesn't even bother to stop for directions from the union, it is by-passed. A spent force.
Qantas domestic pilots were grounded and locked out when not involved. Strangely Jetconnect and Jetstar were not.
A whole wheelbarrow of weasel words and faux recognition may, according to people like Todd Samson, sway the masses to join the company direction. My strongly held view is that most people remember all too well that day in October 2011. Most employees understand all too well the results of speaking out publicly. An adversarial system is brimming with tools to tackle those who challenge.
As I have stated, one CEO and board take the business down, make people redundant and drive thorough reductions. They then parachute out. A board then inserts a CEO to circuit break and business continues.
In the criminal code, convicted of a dishonesty offence renders a person unable to be a trustworthy witness. Whilst their actions are carefully constructed to be lawful, I suspect that as long as that board and management are there trust can never really be restored.
With accelerating retirement rates those pilots affected will politely refuse to be drawn into a conversation and comply with the minimum their contract obliges. That is something the Mr O Leary is grappling with. As troppo pointed out Mr Joyce is out of tricks.
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Ryanair has recognised unions. Hell must have frozen over
Stefan Stern
I don’t even know how there would be industrial action in Ryanair,” the company’s chief executive, Michael O’Leary, observed at its annual general meeting in Dublin less than three months ago. “There isn’t a union.”
There is now. In fact, not merely one union, but several pilots’ unions from all over Europe will shortly be recognised for the purpose of collective bargaining with the airline. This is not simply a U-turn by O’Leary: it is a full loop-the-loop aerial extravaganza, with multicoloured vapour trails and a brass band playing in celebratory support.
Industrial action by Irish pilots, set for this Wednesday, was suspended on Sunday evening. The company should be sitting down with representatives from the union Impact tomorrow. Unions from the UK, Germany, Italy, Spain and Portugal should all now get talks to avoid strike action in those countries as well.
Along with the usual refreshments served at such meetings, there ought to be a decent slab of humble pie for Ryanair’s management to consume. The company has resisted this for years. Doomsday must surely be near, because O’Leary has previously talked about hell freezing over or cutting off his arms before sitting down to deal with unions in this way.
Management is going to have to change its tune. Pilots do not have a “difficult job”, O’Leary has said. They are “precious about themselves” and “full of their own self-importance”. (He later apologised for the remarks, and said they were aimed at pilots working for rival airlines.) Now his pilots and their representatives will have the chance to ensure their pay and conditions improve, in order to avoid a repeat of the recent embarrassment over cancelled flights and missing crew.
Planes are just “buses with wings”, O’Leary has also observed. And here we get to the point about Ryanair and what has made it such a success. The company has called our bluff. We might moan about the indignities of travelling with it. We might balk at the apparent disdain the chief executive has for his staff and customers. But we keep coming back for more – even after thousands of flights were cancelled owing to the airline’s staffing problems. Their prices are low. Ryanair does not pretend to offer comfort or pleasure. It will fly you from one airport to another more cheaply than most of its competitors will.
On a recent edition of the Radio 4 comedy show I’m Sorry I Haven’t a Clue, John Finnemore said that Ryanair’s real advertising slogan ought to be: “You knew what you were getting into.” The gag produced a big laugh of recognition.
There is some sort of consumer cognitive dissonance going on here. Which? has just reported that Ryanair is the joint worst airline, according to its members. To which the company responds that it is also one of the world’s largest and fastest-growing airlines. Both claims can seemingly be true at the same time.
The airlines business is pretty weird. Customers can be dragged screaming from an overbooked plane, as happened earlier this year on a United flight, yet airlines continue to trade and investors continue to hold their shares. It’s business as usual.
Matt Levine, a commentator at Bloomberg, has even suggested that, since most big investors hold shares in all the major stockmarket listed airlines, they are pretty relaxed about how they treat customers as long as between them they continue to dominate the market and deliver returns. Normal competition this is not.
It is all a very long way from the earlier glamour of the jet set and the aspirational image of international travel. Ryanair cabin crew have been told to try harder to flog more perfume and trinkets in the sky. And while piloting a plane was once seen as a dream job, as many as half of Ryanair’s pilots are not employees of the company at all, but agency staff, sometimes required to enter into intricate contractual arrangements with the airline. This has led to the pilots’ tax affairs being investigated by Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs.
Now Ryanair’s approach has collapsed under the weight of its own contradictions. You still need pilots to fly planes – which is, of course, a difficult and highly responsible job.
And the 21st-century solution that the company has chosen to get it out of its difficulties? Trade unionism, employee representation and collective bargaining. It’s just like the old days. O’Leary has adopted the crash position, and workers around the world will have noticed.
• Stefan Stern is director of the High Pay Centre and co-author of Myths of Management
Stefan Stern
I don’t even know how there would be industrial action in Ryanair,” the company’s chief executive, Michael O’Leary, observed at its annual general meeting in Dublin less than three months ago. “There isn’t a union.”
There is now. In fact, not merely one union, but several pilots’ unions from all over Europe will shortly be recognised for the purpose of collective bargaining with the airline. This is not simply a U-turn by O’Leary: it is a full loop-the-loop aerial extravaganza, with multicoloured vapour trails and a brass band playing in celebratory support.
Industrial action by Irish pilots, set for this Wednesday, was suspended on Sunday evening. The company should be sitting down with representatives from the union Impact tomorrow. Unions from the UK, Germany, Italy, Spain and Portugal should all now get talks to avoid strike action in those countries as well.
Along with the usual refreshments served at such meetings, there ought to be a decent slab of humble pie for Ryanair’s management to consume. The company has resisted this for years. Doomsday must surely be near, because O’Leary has previously talked about hell freezing over or cutting off his arms before sitting down to deal with unions in this way.
Management is going to have to change its tune. Pilots do not have a “difficult job”, O’Leary has said. They are “precious about themselves” and “full of their own self-importance”. (He later apologised for the remarks, and said they were aimed at pilots working for rival airlines.) Now his pilots and their representatives will have the chance to ensure their pay and conditions improve, in order to avoid a repeat of the recent embarrassment over cancelled flights and missing crew.
Planes are just “buses with wings”, O’Leary has also observed. And here we get to the point about Ryanair and what has made it such a success. The company has called our bluff. We might moan about the indignities of travelling with it. We might balk at the apparent disdain the chief executive has for his staff and customers. But we keep coming back for more – even after thousands of flights were cancelled owing to the airline’s staffing problems. Their prices are low. Ryanair does not pretend to offer comfort or pleasure. It will fly you from one airport to another more cheaply than most of its competitors will.
On a recent edition of the Radio 4 comedy show I’m Sorry I Haven’t a Clue, John Finnemore said that Ryanair’s real advertising slogan ought to be: “You knew what you were getting into.” The gag produced a big laugh of recognition.
There is some sort of consumer cognitive dissonance going on here. Which? has just reported that Ryanair is the joint worst airline, according to its members. To which the company responds that it is also one of the world’s largest and fastest-growing airlines. Both claims can seemingly be true at the same time.
The airlines business is pretty weird. Customers can be dragged screaming from an overbooked plane, as happened earlier this year on a United flight, yet airlines continue to trade and investors continue to hold their shares. It’s business as usual.
Matt Levine, a commentator at Bloomberg, has even suggested that, since most big investors hold shares in all the major stockmarket listed airlines, they are pretty relaxed about how they treat customers as long as between them they continue to dominate the market and deliver returns. Normal competition this is not.
It is all a very long way from the earlier glamour of the jet set and the aspirational image of international travel. Ryanair cabin crew have been told to try harder to flog more perfume and trinkets in the sky. And while piloting a plane was once seen as a dream job, as many as half of Ryanair’s pilots are not employees of the company at all, but agency staff, sometimes required to enter into intricate contractual arrangements with the airline. This has led to the pilots’ tax affairs being investigated by Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs.
Now Ryanair’s approach has collapsed under the weight of its own contradictions. You still need pilots to fly planes – which is, of course, a difficult and highly responsible job.
And the 21st-century solution that the company has chosen to get it out of its difficulties? Trade unionism, employee representation and collective bargaining. It’s just like the old days. O’Leary has adopted the crash position, and workers around the world will have noticed.
• Stefan Stern is director of the High Pay Centre and co-author of Myths of Management
Ryanair has recognised unions. Hell must have frozen over
Last edited by CurtainTwitcher; 18th Dec 2017 at 16:48.
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Another interesting & detailed study by RAND focused on the US pilot situation: Air Transport Pilot Supply and Demand Current State and Effects of Recent Legislation. Many references & data sources included.
from the report, page 5 (note the tone, pilots are simply "products" to tptb)
from the report, page 5 (note the tone, pilots are simply "products" to tptb)
New commercial pilot production is down from 10042 in 1998 to 8140 in 2013. New CFI pilot production is down from 4647 in 1998 to 3723 in 2013. There are many reasons for this decrease in production, mostly connected to a decreased demand of airline pilots. This decreased demand lasted for a decade from 2002-2012. The four main causes of this stagnation in demand were the industry slowdown after the 9/11 attack, the major airline bankruptcies and consolidations, the 2008/2009 recession, and the lack of retirements after the 2007 mandatory age requirement relaxation from age 60 to age 65.
The last factor many studies point to as a cause of future pilot shortages is forecasts of continuing expansion of the major airlines. The 2014 Boeing Current Market Outlook 2014– 2033 forecasts 7550 new airliners in the United States and a demand for 88000 new pilots in North America during the forecast period (Boeing 2014)
The last factor many studies point to as a cause of future pilot shortages is forecasts of continuing expansion of the major airlines. The 2014 Boeing Current Market Outlook 2014– 2033 forecasts 7550 new airliners in the United States and a demand for 88000 new pilots in North America during the forecast period (Boeing 2014)
Another good RAND study on pilot supply (Mike McGee's dissertation is a great one):
https://www.rand.org/content/dam/ran...AND_RR1412.pdf
https://www.rand.org/content/dam/ran...AND_RR1412.pdf
Qantas send pilots a letter approaching 65 asking what their intentions are.
A great number don't reply and simply notify Qantas with the minimum notice. A recurrent theme is that many of the senior folk retiring make the statement that I got no notice when you grounded the airline, hence minimum notice is all you'll get in return. They are not required to telegraph their intentions to all and sundry.
Where there are smoke, there is fire.
The shortage is as real, but as undetectable as the lead up to CO poisoning. The change is gradual and insidious.
We’ll all look back on this time and think one of two things, either “I wish I was more aware of my worth” or “I told you so”.
The signs are there, we’re just not seeing them. I wouldn’t be saying yes to or signing anything until I was sure of the lay of the land. Floodgates will open next year and until then, the airlines will be pushing for the lowest deal they can get from pilots.
Back yourselves, for goodness sake!!
The shortage is as real, but as undetectable as the lead up to CO poisoning. The change is gradual and insidious.
We’ll all look back on this time and think one of two things, either “I wish I was more aware of my worth” or “I told you so”.
The signs are there, we’re just not seeing them. I wouldn’t be saying yes to or signing anything until I was sure of the lay of the land. Floodgates will open next year and until then, the airlines will be pushing for the lowest deal they can get from pilots.
Back yourselves, for goodness sake!!
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The signs are there, we’re just not seeing them. I wouldn’t be saying yes to or signing anything until I was sure of the lay of the land. Floodgates will open next year and until then, the airlines will be pushing for the lowest deal they can get from pilots.
Back yourselves, for goodness sake!!
Back yourselves, for goodness sake!!
Whilst adversarial IR is still there ( at least in 4 weeks time-they get tired you know!), treating everything like a nail as a hammer is all they are, over supply has evaporated.
The signs are there, they are everywhere. This shortage is far bigger than any business cycle, hence they will deploy any leverage they have.
Having conversed with many pilots at Ryan air their fears are the same: They have an adversarial IR model, far worse than Australia, O'Leary openly denigrates them and you would not believe what happens to pilots and their tax affairs (rumoured) when they leave (not everyone though)
Only a few months ago, O'Leary chastised his pilots, over paid and all the rest. You know the same rubbish Olivia Wirth spewed out. Funny how O'Leary backed down.
He has no supply of pilots
Is America's airline industry headed for a major pilot shortage? | Fox Business
America Pilot Shortage Effect on Regional Flights, Ticket Prices | Fortune
Pilot shortage: 600,000 new pilots needed over the next 20 years - are pilotless planes the answer?
Management at major airlines have a problem; the paradigm has changed and for once, they are caught behind a demographic wave that will eventually, like Mr O'Leary cause them to back down, through gritted teeth I might hasten to add.
Last edited by Rated De; 19th Dec 2017 at 10:33.
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And they’ll have lots of meetings, complete with PowerPoint slides and lots of little sandwiches with the crusts cut off.
That’s after the corporate Christmas parties of course.
Better yet, I’m sure this can all wait to the New Year.
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Several airlines have accepted a pilot-less aircraft is a while off yet!
As such they are actively looking to value pilots as part of their strategic asset mix. They recognise if an airline has a primary function of flying passengers, then having pilots to do it is vital.
On declining supply of pilots, an adversarial IR posture is often at odds with this imperative.
There was an age where front line staff were an asset. A Qantas pilot, a Singapore girl.
It is not confined to aviation, HR/IR kick own goals elsewhere too
As more airlines realise retaining skilled pilots is an important strategic imperative, it is going to be fascinating to see whether weasel words are replaced with respect for contribution. Of course it will be through gritted teeth, but I never for one believed Mr O'Leary would be on bended knee to his pilots!
As such they are actively looking to value pilots as part of their strategic asset mix. They recognise if an airline has a primary function of flying passengers, then having pilots to do it is vital.
On declining supply of pilots, an adversarial IR posture is often at odds with this imperative.
There was an age where front line staff were an asset. A Qantas pilot, a Singapore girl.
It is not confined to aviation, HR/IR kick own goals elsewhere too
Many business leaders talk about treating human capital as a strategic asset, but few companies put the idea into practice. For many years, this was especially true in the oil and gas industry, where HR strategy — including recruiting, training, career development, and succession planning — was not seen as a top priority. More recently, however, the HR function in many energy companies has begun struggling to fill positions. The industry is suffering from a pronounced shortage of skilled, experienced technical professionals — especially those who can design, operate, and manage complex oil and gas exploration and production projects.
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Management are all over it, they will meet with the HR people and come up with a comprehensive five point plan to alleviate the forthcoming pilot shortage.
A five point plan? Pfft. Everyone knows this problem has a silver bullet solution
- Integrate Jetconnect
- Give A320 to subsidiary
- Roll out after well deserved break for Christmas, in New Year
- Winning