Pilot shortage
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Most doctors and lawyers negotiate individual contracts, not EBAs.
Secondly, yes they're too smart for this industry. Why would you invest so much for minimal return? 8 years of medicine costs less than a MECIR + ATPL subjects. Troubling really. However, from speaking to someone doing their speciality in pediatrics, the speciality takes longer and is more cost intensive. Further though, there are more scholarships and funding in public universities such as UNSW, Sydney, Melbourne, UQ etc for these professions. Where is the scholarship funding in ours?
No scholarships would suggest to me that the industry has lost its prestigious position among the science faculty. Why? Due to the rise of penny pinching and the striping of conditions.
Secondly, yes they're too smart for this industry. Why would you invest so much for minimal return? 8 years of medicine costs less than a MECIR + ATPL subjects. Troubling really. However, from speaking to someone doing their speciality in pediatrics, the speciality takes longer and is more cost intensive. Further though, there are more scholarships and funding in public universities such as UNSW, Sydney, Melbourne, UQ etc for these professions. Where is the scholarship funding in ours?
No scholarships would suggest to me that the industry has lost its prestigious position among the science faculty. Why? Due to the rise of penny pinching and the striping of conditions.
Do Doctors and Lawyers have annual checks of their performance?
If you are young and love to fly then become a doctor or lawyer, have a holiday house and an aircraft in either Canada, NZ or USA and go over there on a regular basis (and probably claim it on tax) and enjoy your flying.
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Applying rational expectations to the pilot supply model has one interesting short coming: Pilots actually didn't know the model and therefore their assumptions were not correct.
What I am implying is that there is a great deal of leverage where supply of pilots exceeds demand.
This has generational consequences as companies could push down terms and conditions. They did this for decades. Aided by an adversarial IR posture this was a foregone outcome with ample supply ensuring more candidates than needed.
Moral hazard fell on the pilot. The company no longer bore responsibility for training or endorsements, contracts didn't compensate when a commercial cancellation occurred or sick leave provisions were less than an office worker. Pilots were paid only to fly, sitting around was at their expense.
From General Aviation to Airlines this became the new model.
When pilots adjusted to the reality of the model, it was oftentimes too late (age and financial commitment)...
With real wage growth stagnant and other opportunities available, people do make rational choices: they find ways to be compensated for their time, they do not spend $150k learning to fly. The statistics although time lagged and opaque are bearing this reality: There is inadequate supply.
The great weakness of the model that IR/HR created, aided by pilot representatives who knowing there was adequate supply continued to give things up to 'secure the flying'
This loop has returned and choked off a lot of supply and with a demographic surge in retirements it is going to be interesting to see how it plays out.
What I am implying is that there is a great deal of leverage where supply of pilots exceeds demand.
This has generational consequences as companies could push down terms and conditions. They did this for decades. Aided by an adversarial IR posture this was a foregone outcome with ample supply ensuring more candidates than needed.
Moral hazard fell on the pilot. The company no longer bore responsibility for training or endorsements, contracts didn't compensate when a commercial cancellation occurred or sick leave provisions were less than an office worker. Pilots were paid only to fly, sitting around was at their expense.
From General Aviation to Airlines this became the new model.
When pilots adjusted to the reality of the model, it was oftentimes too late (age and financial commitment)...
With real wage growth stagnant and other opportunities available, people do make rational choices: they find ways to be compensated for their time, they do not spend $150k learning to fly. The statistics although time lagged and opaque are bearing this reality: There is inadequate supply.
The great weakness of the model that IR/HR created, aided by pilot representatives who knowing there was adequate supply continued to give things up to 'secure the flying'
This loop has returned and choked off a lot of supply and with a demographic surge in retirements it is going to be interesting to see how it plays out.
Passion for flying anyone??
Whatever happened to embarking on a flying career for the sole reason it is your passion? Nothing else mattered apart from the smell of avgas and the indescribable high of peeling through a crisp winters morning just as the sun rises?
It worked for me..... 35 years later I tell anyone who asks they should go for it if they take a 1/2 hour trial introductory flight and their hearts remain in the clouds for the next 48hrs.
If you don't have the passion, don't even start.
It worked for me..... 35 years later I tell anyone who asks they should go for it if they take a 1/2 hour trial introductory flight and their hearts remain in the clouds for the next 48hrs.
If you don't have the passion, don't even start.
CCB well said, if you have the passion you’ll never work a day in your life, ok maybe the red eye flights are working...
The journey through GA, military or whatever is just that a journey.
Embrace it and enjoy. If your doing it for any other reason as you see on these threads then?
The journey through GA, military or whatever is just that a journey.
Embrace it and enjoy. If your doing it for any other reason as you see on these threads then?
However there is more to life than being an aero sexual. Even those who are that way inclined tend to slow down eventually. You cannot continually move house chasing the next flash aeroplane for peanuts, if you want anything resembling a home life.
I suspect that the younger generation are weighing up the pros and cons and given that money is now a con they are doing something else.
Interestingly if you look at the research on millennials their life priorities compared to other generations is different. Just because your generation was happy doing this job over a long period of time doesn’t mean others will be.
I suspect that the younger generation are weighing up the pros and cons and given that money is now a con they are doing something else.
Interestingly if you look at the research on millennials their life priorities compared to other generations is different. Just because your generation was happy doing this job over a long period of time doesn’t mean others will be.
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Interestingly if you look at the research on millennials their life priorities compared to other generations is different. Just because your generation was happy doing this job over a long period of time doesn’t mean others will be.
Airline management with adversarial HR posture has driven down terms and conditions (it worked for a few decades on unlimited supply, it is not like it was 35 years ago), whilst costs for following a dream have risen. With a rise in demographically induced retirements beginning in all western economies HR/IR created a problem for themselves; people are not learning to fly. HR do not understand, airline management do not yet understand. I can assure you in the finance game there are hedge funds trying to work out how to position themselves when chunks of existing workforces the world over begin the march to retirement. The impacts on asset markets will be substantial, aviation is not any different and labour skill shortages among the considerations of the money men.
Rational actors choose something else when the return is not on investment. They are choosing and the IR/HR model is ill equipped to accept the paradigm has shifted.
Nothing's changed
When I started just after the Pilots Dispute we then got the "recession we had to have". Jobs were very difficult to get and there was absolutely no movement within regional airlines. I spent many years living in an Aboriginal Community during the 90's as a result. I eventually got lucky with a Regional and the thought of one day flying a Dash 8 in Command before retirement was what sustained me and all the contemporaries I associated with. (A regional mortgage quite achievable on that payscale).
Just at the moment I was able to take a slot on a regional jet the Company stipulated a requirement to sign an individual contract outside of the EBA. Much angst and turmoil ensued, I remained on my turboprop. (Sounds familiar - history keeps repeating).
It didn't stop us though from dreaming big, taking holidays to do Maths/Physics, cramming together for our CX interviews to hopefully, maybe getting that one shot at the big time....
My point is that in order to enjoy the journey one needs first the passion. It's always been so and it will always be so.
If you don't have it, you won't be able to withstand the **** conditions required to eventually get a gig on a regional turbo prop. That's all you can reasonably expect from the get go.
Any further up the ladder is a bonus. Don't forget to enjoy the whole ride.
I'm sure today's challenges are different - I don't think though that it's any better or worse. All this will fall on deaf ears however, you see we also had negative pilots back then too..... I used to hearten myself in the knowledge though that people with these attitudes made it easier for people like me with a positive outlook (and the others of like mind with whom I chose to associate) to shine and recognise when an opportunity arose.
Good luck to all...
Just at the moment I was able to take a slot on a regional jet the Company stipulated a requirement to sign an individual contract outside of the EBA. Much angst and turmoil ensued, I remained on my turboprop. (Sounds familiar - history keeps repeating).
It didn't stop us though from dreaming big, taking holidays to do Maths/Physics, cramming together for our CX interviews to hopefully, maybe getting that one shot at the big time....
My point is that in order to enjoy the journey one needs first the passion. It's always been so and it will always be so.
If you don't have it, you won't be able to withstand the **** conditions required to eventually get a gig on a regional turbo prop. That's all you can reasonably expect from the get go.
Any further up the ladder is a bonus. Don't forget to enjoy the whole ride.
I'm sure today's challenges are different - I don't think though that it's any better or worse. All this will fall on deaf ears however, you see we also had negative pilots back then too..... I used to hearten myself in the knowledge though that people with these attitudes made it easier for people like me with a positive outlook (and the others of like mind with whom I chose to associate) to shine and recognise when an opportunity arose.
Good luck to all...
Whatever happened to embarking on a flying career for the sole reason it is your passion?
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Whatever happened to embarking on a flying career for the sole reason it is your passion? Nothing else mattered apart from the smell of avgas and the indescribable high of peeling through a crisp winters morning just as the sun rises?
There is an argument in economic circles around labour importing at times of skill shortage to keep pressure on real wage rises. It is interesting though as globalised supply is a two way street for pilots perhaps this argument is of less relevance. I would contend that the lockout of staff, even those not involved with the action at Qantas was designed to draw concession from staff. It may have worked in the short term, but the model of relationship is broken. It is terminal at Ryanair too and have a read about Cathay.
Real wage declines, degradation of terms and conditions, moral hazard (as risks are passed to pilots) where income is lost when flights are cancelled, to fly a company aircraft you pay for the endorsement and if unlucky enough to work for Ryanair you are a 'contractor' with responsibility for superannuation and even car parking. Over time people made rational decisions and assessed the long term viability of such a pursuit. For those already down the rabbit hole perhaps there was no other option. Qantas pilots talk of the lost career path as JQ grew but they stagnated. Imagine living in Sydney on Rex wages or Qlink wages as an FO?
Unfortunately as Dixon and Joyce said, job security is a thing of the past, at least for employees not in their cult. Passion as stated won't actually pay the bills, so slowly people chose other things. Now demographic shortages are biting industry wide (slowly) accelerating the decline.
In setting up an adversarial IR posture, emulating Ryanair, driving 'lower unit cost' the scene was set for the downward pressure they wanted on that unit cost of labour. Ironically the pursuit of which sowed the seeds of the shortage which is (in part) increasingly evident today.
A few more observations from personal experience...
There is a much bigger aviation world out there than a SYD based regional position. I didn't finally buy my own home in a Capital City (Perth) until I was 45 years old.
I'd be looking to break into the WA aviation game if I was looking to further my career. A 4 bedroom house can be rented for $370 pw only 5 mins to the airport
The median house price has plummeted over the last few years.
I agree that family should come 1st over persuing an aviation dream. That's why I didn't get married until I was 35. I also caution anyone who asks that unless you start your journey passionate, footloose and fancy free in your 20's, your chances of eventual success diminishes exponentially. It's just an observation of mine that to succeed all the way in this game sacrifices must be made in the beginning. Nothing's changed. From where I sit now in the L seat of a major Aus airline, everyone beside me has had similar tales of sacrifice to tell.
There is a much bigger aviation world out there than a SYD based regional position. I didn't finally buy my own home in a Capital City (Perth) until I was 45 years old.
I'd be looking to break into the WA aviation game if I was looking to further my career. A 4 bedroom house can be rented for $370 pw only 5 mins to the airport
The median house price has plummeted over the last few years.
I agree that family should come 1st over persuing an aviation dream. That's why I didn't get married until I was 35. I also caution anyone who asks that unless you start your journey passionate, footloose and fancy free in your 20's, your chances of eventual success diminishes exponentially. It's just an observation of mine that to succeed all the way in this game sacrifices must be made in the beginning. Nothing's changed. From where I sit now in the L seat of a major Aus airline, everyone beside me has had similar tales of sacrifice to tell.
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Christmas Crisis: 15,000 American Air Flights Without Pilots Over Holidays Due To "Glitch" | Zero Hedge
Of course Australia is different!
Of course Australia is different!
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FedEx buys Cessnas, will develop pilot training program
Latest News
Wednesday, 29 November 2017
FedEx Express is buying 50 new Cessna SkyCourier 408 turboprops to add to its feeder aircraft fleet - and has options for 50 more.
The purchase - plus 30 ATR 75-600s announced recently - are part of the company's strategy to strategy to modernise its feeder fleet and develop a pilot training program, helping to offset the growing global pilot shortage.
The Cessna SkyCourier 408 has more than twice the maximum payload of the Cessna 208Bs that currently are in FedEx’s fleet. Its large cargo doors mean it can handle up to three LD3 containers.
Delivery of the Cessnas is expected to start mid-2020.
Wednesday, 29 November 2017
FedEx Express is buying 50 new Cessna SkyCourier 408 turboprops to add to its feeder aircraft fleet - and has options for 50 more.
The purchase - plus 30 ATR 75-600s announced recently - are part of the company's strategy to strategy to modernise its feeder fleet and develop a pilot training program, helping to offset the growing global pilot shortage.
The Cessna SkyCourier 408 has more than twice the maximum payload of the Cessna 208Bs that currently are in FedEx’s fleet. Its large cargo doors mean it can handle up to three LD3 containers.
Delivery of the Cessnas is expected to start mid-2020.
Fascinating Rated De.
A computer program afflicted with the same delusion as its Human hosts.
And....., if I’m reading this right, an attempt by management to negotiate less than the standard overtime rate in seeking help to clear the shortfall.
Lots of goals scored there. All “Own”.
A computer program afflicted with the same delusion as its Human hosts.
And....., if I’m reading this right, an attempt by management to negotiate less than the standard overtime rate in seeking help to clear the shortfall.
Lots of goals scored there. All “Own”.
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if I’m reading this right, an attempt by management to negotiate less than the standard overtime rate in seeking help to clear the shortfall.
Amusing to watch the adversarial IR model slowly fall apart, in between their steak lunches, weekends off and Christmas break...Their model only accepts negative inputs when calculating pilot labour unit cost
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Qantas Future Pilot Program offers uni aviation graduates jobs
Of course there will be plenty reminding me that Australia is different!
First GA, then regionals!
Still convinced of Australian exceptionalism?
Of course there will be plenty reminding me that Australia is different!
First GA, then regionals!
Still convinced of Australian exceptionalism?
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3/4 are (on first glance) females...that is not coincidental or accidental.
Nothing to do with a pilot shortage, just a female pilot shortage. King Alan has decreed it must be 20% next year.
Nothing to do with a pilot shortage, just a female pilot shortage. King Alan has decreed it must be 20% next year.