Qantas Recruitment
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Before people start this redundancy talk, it first has to be proven that the existing mechanisms to manage numbers within each award will either not be fully utilised or will be insufficient in this situation.
Each award has flexibility that both the company and the association will explore.
I expect the masses will take a haircut so the at risk will keep food on the table.
Each award has flexibility that both the company and the association will explore.
I expect the masses will take a haircut so the at risk will keep food on the table.
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Do we really expect the company to RIN a 380/747 captain in the present situation? One move at the top can make ~10 training movements down the line.
Surely its not financially viable in the current circumstances.
Surely its not financially viable in the current circumstances.
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Before people start this redundancy talk, it first has to be proven that the existing mechanisms to manage numbers within each award will either not be fully utilised or will be insufficient in this situation.
Each award has flexibility that both the company and the association will explore.
I expect the masses will take a haircut so the at risk will keep food on the table.
Each award has flexibility that both the company and the association will explore.
I expect the masses will take a haircut so the at risk will keep food on the table.
Last on first off. Seniority and the RIN process will be enforced. End of story.
A RIN is never financially viable for the airline. It had a chance to change or get rid of that process during the last LHEA vote, which was taken during the COVID emergency if you look at the timing and it declined to do so.
If Qantas goes to FWA now seeking variation to the RIN and redundancy processes it wont have a leg to stand on. AIPA will fight this one into the ground
Last on, first off. See you later Normanton. Enjoy working at Maccas.
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By shoe on the other foot do you mean the senior pilots who wanted to vote NO to save the "legacy conditions", now want the jobs on the 787/330 junior fleet, or the "light twins"? Surely not!
Enjoy your long extended stand down as it's the cheapest option for the company.
A RIN is never financially viable for the airline. It had a chance to change or get rid of that process during the last LHEA vote, which was taken during the COVID emergency if you look at the timing and it declined to do so.
If Qantas goes to FWA now seeking variation to the RIN and redundancy processes it wont have a leg to stand on. AIPA will fight this one into the ground.
Expect discussions to start with AIPA for amendments to the EBA. Pay cuts included. It's great you won't be apart of it. Your vote will count just as much as it did with the NO vote.
Thanks for your concern, but I am already back working in a previous industry.
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In the scheme of things, everyone will take a huge pay cut. Once they get all 737 crew back to work it will be on min guarantee until at least next year, but will go back to normal much faster than other fleets. Many, if not all 747/A380 guys will be stood down indefinitely, with no pay. The 747 guys will be in a better position because they will have to be RINed, but while the company keeps saying “it might fly again” they don’t have to do anything, and all crew will still be stood down on no pay. 787/A330 will most likely have to accept some kind of flexiline structure for everyone to get everyone back to work before the end of 2021. I don’t think you will have a choice Mohikan (although I don’t know what fleet you are on). Recruitment will be years away. My best guess would be 2023.
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From the last webinar Tino made clear his opinion that QANTAS had the right number of people going into this COVID crisis, and it was his firm belief that translates to having the right number of people coming out the other side of it.
I read into that to not expect any widespread redundancies any time soon. With the flexibility management are enjoying with the stand down provisions it seems to me that management are taking a wait and see approach to see how quickly recovery happens. They’re under no pressure to do anything different. I expect any fine tuning will be through LWOP opportunities. There will also be some natural attrition during this period as people reach the time of their lives that it’s just easier to disappear into the sunset. If I was 10 years older, that would certainly be my position.
Forward bookings are usually the lens that management use to determine the amount of seats to put on any particular route. Be that putting more seats on the route by using bigger aircraft or more frequency or reducing frequency and/or aircraft size depending upon forward booking demand. When determining whether a new route is viable a lot of research goes into the likelihood of it being a success by looking at the demographics of the planned market and then taking a leap of faith by opening the route. Forward bookings can then be used as the barometer to “right size” the route. QANTAS have been ruthless at cutting or downsizing routes if the load factors fall short of expectations as any competent airline would.
QANTAS, like all other airlines, now finds itself in a reset period. By that I mean that the usual barometer of forward bookings are not presently an accurate reflection of route viability as every route has been artificially restricted by both international and interstate borders. Nobody's making bookings anywhere at present as it’s actually illegal for Australian citizens to leave the country and any international visitors face a 14 day quarantine. QANTAS must effectively now treat every route as if it were a new route and take a leap of faith once restrictions are lifted and hope that forward bookings flow in. I think they will, and so do QANTAS management.This seems to be a perfectly reasonable expectation.
As to how this equates to forward recruitment is a more difficult question. A lot will depend upon confirmation of forward bookings and realisation of the expected pent-up demand. No recruitment will happen until this is known for certain. Added to this will be a decision upon the future of the 747. The longer this goes on, the less likely it is that the 747 will fly again. It was planned to retire in March next year anyway. Any short-term conversions would be associated with the expected RIN process of those crew on that fleet. If, as expected, forward bookings return then I expect the three deferred 789s will be delivered and the 789 will form the backbone of any return to international routes. That includes routes out of SYD traditionally flown on the four engines fleet. I expect the 787 will actually be short of crew early next year. I may be wrong. Time will tell.
The A380 is also a “wait and see” prospect. There has been a lot of conjecture that because QANTAS stopped the refresh of the last 6 A380s that this somehow signals the start of the demise of the A380 for QANTAS. This position was scoffed at by Tino in the last webinar. He stated that we had the right number of A380s going into this crisis and we’ll have the right number, 12, coming out of it. The pause on the refresh on the last 6 aircraft was purely the short term requirement to preserve cash and that the refresh will be continued once we start making money again. I feel for the guys on the dugong. I was there myself until recently and to some extent these guys have as much, if not more, uncertainty as the 747 guys. The 747 guys can expect retraining in the short term, whereas the A380 guys will probably be just kept stood down for a long period, maybe another 12 months. The company is still planning to operate the A380 into the future so they won’t want anyone leaving this fleet in the short term, but they won’t be flying again for a significant period. Any crew required for the 787 will be coming from the 747 in the short term.
My crystal ball is to not expect recruitment for at least 18 months or so. If the demand returns, as expected, then it will have to happen then. Tino also stated that he is committed to Project Sunrise and I can see the logic here. The point to point out of Australia makes even more sense now than it did pre-COVID. I firmly believe the A350 remains firmly in focus and will form a big part of QANTAS’ future.
It will take a couple of years but I expect QANTAS will be back to where we were, and even stronger. I’m normally quite cynical about QANTAS but I don’t think we have anything to be pessimistic about. The next few months will be a struggle for those on the 4 engine fleet but we’ll get over it.
I read into that to not expect any widespread redundancies any time soon. With the flexibility management are enjoying with the stand down provisions it seems to me that management are taking a wait and see approach to see how quickly recovery happens. They’re under no pressure to do anything different. I expect any fine tuning will be through LWOP opportunities. There will also be some natural attrition during this period as people reach the time of their lives that it’s just easier to disappear into the sunset. If I was 10 years older, that would certainly be my position.
Forward bookings are usually the lens that management use to determine the amount of seats to put on any particular route. Be that putting more seats on the route by using bigger aircraft or more frequency or reducing frequency and/or aircraft size depending upon forward booking demand. When determining whether a new route is viable a lot of research goes into the likelihood of it being a success by looking at the demographics of the planned market and then taking a leap of faith by opening the route. Forward bookings can then be used as the barometer to “right size” the route. QANTAS have been ruthless at cutting or downsizing routes if the load factors fall short of expectations as any competent airline would.
QANTAS, like all other airlines, now finds itself in a reset period. By that I mean that the usual barometer of forward bookings are not presently an accurate reflection of route viability as every route has been artificially restricted by both international and interstate borders. Nobody's making bookings anywhere at present as it’s actually illegal for Australian citizens to leave the country and any international visitors face a 14 day quarantine. QANTAS must effectively now treat every route as if it were a new route and take a leap of faith once restrictions are lifted and hope that forward bookings flow in. I think they will, and so do QANTAS management.This seems to be a perfectly reasonable expectation.
As to how this equates to forward recruitment is a more difficult question. A lot will depend upon confirmation of forward bookings and realisation of the expected pent-up demand. No recruitment will happen until this is known for certain. Added to this will be a decision upon the future of the 747. The longer this goes on, the less likely it is that the 747 will fly again. It was planned to retire in March next year anyway. Any short-term conversions would be associated with the expected RIN process of those crew on that fleet. If, as expected, forward bookings return then I expect the three deferred 789s will be delivered and the 789 will form the backbone of any return to international routes. That includes routes out of SYD traditionally flown on the four engines fleet. I expect the 787 will actually be short of crew early next year. I may be wrong. Time will tell.
The A380 is also a “wait and see” prospect. There has been a lot of conjecture that because QANTAS stopped the refresh of the last 6 A380s that this somehow signals the start of the demise of the A380 for QANTAS. This position was scoffed at by Tino in the last webinar. He stated that we had the right number of A380s going into this crisis and we’ll have the right number, 12, coming out of it. The pause on the refresh on the last 6 aircraft was purely the short term requirement to preserve cash and that the refresh will be continued once we start making money again. I feel for the guys on the dugong. I was there myself until recently and to some extent these guys have as much, if not more, uncertainty as the 747 guys. The 747 guys can expect retraining in the short term, whereas the A380 guys will probably be just kept stood down for a long period, maybe another 12 months. The company is still planning to operate the A380 into the future so they won’t want anyone leaving this fleet in the short term, but they won’t be flying again for a significant period. Any crew required for the 787 will be coming from the 747 in the short term.
My crystal ball is to not expect recruitment for at least 18 months or so. If the demand returns, as expected, then it will have to happen then. Tino also stated that he is committed to Project Sunrise and I can see the logic here. The point to point out of Australia makes even more sense now than it did pre-COVID. I firmly believe the A350 remains firmly in focus and will form a big part of QANTAS’ future.
It will take a couple of years but I expect QANTAS will be back to where we were, and even stronger. I’m normally quite cynical about QANTAS but I don’t think we have anything to be pessimistic about. The next few months will be a struggle for those on the 4 engine fleet but we’ll get over it.
Disregarding its personal nature, Mohican raises a valid point of view. Mohican will not be the only one who remembers the flexi lines, LSL and AL assignments and general sacrifice for those at the bottom. Not to mention those who went to Jetstar or the sandpit.
The appetite for further sacrifice now may not be so strong for a fair cohort of the pilot body and it will be a balancing act for the association. The ultimate outcome may reflect that balance required.
The appetite for further sacrifice now may not be so strong for a fair cohort of the pilot body and it will be a balancing act for the association. The ultimate outcome may reflect that balance required.
- Australia closed its borders on March 20.
- Qantas stood down its staff on March 21.
- Qantas made its application to the FWC for ratification of the LHEA on April 8.
You can’t suggest things have deteriorated since the LHEA was submitted, if anything the situation in Australia has improved and avoided the worst predictions available at the time.
I believe Qantas will have to comply with the EA. Nearly every instance where a condition within the EA could be ‘varied in agreement with the association’ were deleted from our EA’s years ago (at the insistence of Qantas).
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Normanton.
Beer Baron is 100% correct. The airline had a chance to shelve the EA vote and set up for the post COVID environment but chose not to. There is zero chance of FWA giving relief from the RIN or redundancy provisions now.
FWA is very clear its job is not to solve a businesses mistakes with its workforce. Look at the arbitration result post the grounding of the airline for the best example. Qantas got almost nothing it asked for.
There is also no chance of senior crew voting to accept pay cuts to save Normantons job (as an example)
Because demotions are going to happen anyway. And so every F/O and Captain and most of the ultra senior S/Os will vote no to such a proposal. You end up changing seats and fleets and then going onto a b-scale as part of that to save the job of a pilot whose naked hatred of senior crew and contempt on the flight deck for anyone which has more experience than him is well known.
Unlike the recent LHEA (which I was an enthusiastic yes voter for) there is nothing in this for me to protect your job.
So enjoy being back in the RAAF. You will be there for a while I reckon. Probably for good.
Beer Baron is 100% correct. The airline had a chance to shelve the EA vote and set up for the post COVID environment but chose not to. There is zero chance of FWA giving relief from the RIN or redundancy provisions now.
FWA is very clear its job is not to solve a businesses mistakes with its workforce. Look at the arbitration result post the grounding of the airline for the best example. Qantas got almost nothing it asked for.
There is also no chance of senior crew voting to accept pay cuts to save Normantons job (as an example)
Because demotions are going to happen anyway. And so every F/O and Captain and most of the ultra senior S/Os will vote no to such a proposal. You end up changing seats and fleets and then going onto a b-scale as part of that to save the job of a pilot whose naked hatred of senior crew and contempt on the flight deck for anyone which has more experience than him is well known.
Unlike the recent LHEA (which I was an enthusiastic yes voter for) there is nothing in this for me to protect your job.
So enjoy being back in the RAAF. You will be there for a while I reckon. Probably for good.
Normanton.
Beer Baron is 100% correct. The airline had a chance to shelve the EA vote and set up for the post COVID environment but chose not to. There is zero chance of FWA giving relief from the RIN or redundancy provisions now.
FWA is very clear its job is not to solve a businesses mistakes with its workforce. Look at the arbitration result post the grounding of the airline for the best example. Qantas got almost nothing it asked for.
There is also no chance of senior crew voting to accept pay cuts to save Normantons job (as an example)
Because demotions are going to happen anyway. And so every F/O and Captain and most of the ultra senior S/Os will vote no to such a proposal. You end up changing seats and fleets and then going onto a b-scale as part of that to save the job of a pilot whose naked hatred of senior crew and contempt on the flight deck for anyone which has more experience than him is well known.
Unlike the recent LHEA (which I was an enthusiastic yes voter for) there is nothing in this for me to protect your job.
So enjoy being back in the RAAF. You will be there for a while I reckon. Probably for good.
Beer Baron is 100% correct. The airline had a chance to shelve the EA vote and set up for the post COVID environment but chose not to. There is zero chance of FWA giving relief from the RIN or redundancy provisions now.
FWA is very clear its job is not to solve a businesses mistakes with its workforce. Look at the arbitration result post the grounding of the airline for the best example. Qantas got almost nothing it asked for.
There is also no chance of senior crew voting to accept pay cuts to save Normantons job (as an example)
Because demotions are going to happen anyway. And so every F/O and Captain and most of the ultra senior S/Os will vote no to such a proposal. You end up changing seats and fleets and then going onto a b-scale as part of that to save the job of a pilot whose naked hatred of senior crew and contempt on the flight deck for anyone which has more experience than him is well known.
Unlike the recent LHEA (which I was an enthusiastic yes voter for) there is nothing in this for me to protect your job.
So enjoy being back in the RAAF. You will be there for a while I reckon. Probably for good.
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But just for the record, when the company goes down the path of redundancy by fleet with an emergency hearing with fairwork, and the company turns to the 330/787 crew to operate reduced lines so we can asborb some of the 747/380 crew, there will be nothing in it for me. I won't be accepting any pay reduction to save your job. Two can play that game. Good riddance!
At no point where we looking at international at 1% capacity, and domestic 5%. And those numbers are only there because of government funding. Without them its 0%.
You can't sit here and say during EBA negotiations and voting we were looking at Qantas being entirely grounded.
There is also no chance of senior crew voting to accept pay cuts to save Normantons job (as an example)
The only pilots who will need to be RIN'd anywhere by March '21 are the 747 pilots, and I believe that their numbers are approximately equivalent to the probable retirements to that date, and any excess from that can be easily managed. There'll probably be an increase in retirements as a result of this slowdown.
With a long term view, the company knows 5 years from now they will need pilots of normanton's era (joined within the last 3 years). It is in their long term interest to ensure the most junior pilots remain with the group in some fashion.
There is no way Qantas will follow the contract and apply a RIN in accordance with it. Can you imagine a RIN in accordance with the contract with both 380 and 747. They'll argue in FW that it will send them bankrupt and it's better to make 3-400 pilots redundant outside the contact than make 30000 unemployed. I can't see the 380 ever coming back. They can actually keep 380 pilots on stand down indefinitely, unlike the 747 pilots. This is a recruitment thread though and I can't see recruitment for 5 years, especially if they make the junior pilots redundant and employ them back slowly in the future. I think we'll see a very different airline into the future unfortunately. Tough times ahead, we're in a changed world. I don't doubt what TLS and DT have to say on the webinars at present but we live in a dynamic world and plans will change. "We have no intention of" is probably correct at the moment but could be a reality down the track.
- Qantas announced the grounding of ALL regularly scheduled international flights on the 19th of March. See here
- LH EA voting started on the 21st of March.
So Qantas were fully aware of the worst possible scenario BEFORE the EA vote opened, before the result was declared and before it was submitted to the FWC. They had ample opportunity to pull it but they decided not to.
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Wrong again.
- Qantas announced the grounding of ALL regularly scheduled international flights on the 19th of March. See here
- LH EA voting started on the 21st of March.
So Qantas were fully aware of the worst possible scenario BEFORE the EA vote opened, before the result was declared and before it was submitted to the FWC. They had ample opportunity to pull it but they decided not to.
- Qantas announced the grounding of ALL regularly scheduled international flights on the 19th of March. See here
- LH EA voting started on the 21st of March.
So Qantas were fully aware of the worst possible scenario BEFORE the EA vote opened, before the result was declared and before it was submitted to the FWC. They had ample opportunity to pull it but they decided not to.
Your argument is valid, but Qantas have an army of lawyers who would rip it apart in FW. Don't forget who we work for here. An opportunity like this is once in a lifetime, and Allan will take full advantage of it.
Ask the contractors building the new sim training building how a signed contract worked out for them. Again, never one to waste an opportunity.
Last edited by normanton; 31st May 2020 at 09:01.