Qantas Recruitment
Regardless on the technical details if pilot recruitment has or has not been suspended the reality is that the current situation is a giant pause button on the industry at best.
Those without a job now are in a precious position as I do not think many if any airlines will be recruiting in the next 6 months or until the virus has blown over and forward booking recover.
Those without a job now are in a precious position as I do not think many if any airlines will be recruiting in the next 6 months or until the virus has blown over and forward booking recover.
I think this entire year is going to pretty much be a write off for pilot recruitment and travel and early to mid or even late next year - in a best case scenario - it will maybe start to slowly rebound. And that is assuming the virus is contained and a vaccine is even available in the near future. I believe things in the industry are unfortunately going to get worse before they get better. But it will eventually bounce back.
Fear is a very powerful thing and there is plenty of that out there for anyone who cares to watch the news.
Blue lines like that don’t happen naturally.
The case definition has been changed twice in a week. China can change definitions and (with 99% of the global cases) can unilaterally control the graphs produced. Meanwhile, things in real life continue to follow a natural course.
Infections stop spreading when
i) the pathogen changes,
ii) when we develop a treatment to overcome it,
iii) quarantine such that people stop mixing so it can't spread,
iv) or (when all else fails) it stops running into vulnerable people as the proportion of infected & recovered & immune people increases sufficiently to disrupt ongoing spread. When each person infects less than 1 new person (R falls below 1), the total numbers start to decline. With a current R greater than 2, this would require the proportion of immune people to be greater than 50%. 60% is an estimate based on what we currently believe R to be. It could be higher than 60%.
Absent the first 3, we appear to be left with number iv).
Neil Ferguson suggests 60% global population infected, with a point estimate of a 1% mortality (with a factor of 4 error either way - i.e. fatality most likely between 0.25% and 4%).
7 billion x 60% x 1% = 42 million - with the same error factor of 4 either way.
A UK doctor was suggesting that in the UK this would be equivalent to all UK military and civilian deaths in WW2 - but compressed into 12-18 months.
https://blogs.cdc.gov/publichealthma...8/05/1918-flu/
Note they are talking about seasons and years. The "1918 'flu" wasn't something that happened for a few weeks or a couple of months in 1918.
With COVID 19, we are looking at a few weeks. Very early days. Yes it started in Nov & Dec 19. But it really only got going 4 weeks ago (4 weeks ago Wuhan was yet to be quarantined).
In the first few weeks of the spring of 1918, I guess things didn't look that bad either.
This likely has a long time to run.
Japan and Korea have both been very very concerning over the past few days
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/0...navirus-cases/
The case definition has been changed twice in a week. China can change definitions and (with 99% of the global cases) can unilaterally control the graphs produced. Meanwhile, things in real life continue to follow a natural course.
Infections stop spreading when
i) the pathogen changes,
ii) when we develop a treatment to overcome it,
iii) quarantine such that people stop mixing so it can't spread,
iv) or (when all else fails) it stops running into vulnerable people as the proportion of infected & recovered & immune people increases sufficiently to disrupt ongoing spread. When each person infects less than 1 new person (R falls below 1), the total numbers start to decline. With a current R greater than 2, this would require the proportion of immune people to be greater than 50%. 60% is an estimate based on what we currently believe R to be. It could be higher than 60%.
Absent the first 3, we appear to be left with number iv).
Neil Ferguson suggests 60% global population infected, with a point estimate of a 1% mortality (with a factor of 4 error either way - i.e. fatality most likely between 0.25% and 4%).
7 billion x 60% x 1% = 42 million - with the same error factor of 4 either way.
A UK doctor was suggesting that in the UK this would be equivalent to all UK military and civilian deaths in WW2 - but compressed into 12-18 months.
https://blogs.cdc.gov/publichealthma...8/05/1918-flu/
Unusual flu-like activity was first identified in U.S. military personnel during the spring of 1918. Flu spread rapidly in military barracks where men shared close quarters. The second wave occurred during the fall of 1918 and was the most severe. A third wave of illness occurred during the winter and spring of 1919.
With COVID 19, we are looking at a few weeks. Very early days. Yes it started in Nov & Dec 19. But it really only got going 4 weeks ago (4 weeks ago Wuhan was yet to be quarantined).
In the first few weeks of the spring of 1918, I guess things didn't look that bad either.
This likely has a long time to run.
Japan and Korea have both been very very concerning over the past few days
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/0...navirus-cases/
Regardless of too many Coronas the current world aviation scene has changed dramatically. We have gone from the cusp of a real pilot shortage to an extreme excess (whilst hopefully very short term). Contract pilots have seen what this means, I’m sure expat pilots at places will next feel the pain.
What does this have to do with QF recruitment? Well as per the Sunrise thread there will
be desperate pilots out there, expats that don’t care and just want to be back based on home soil.
The industry has just been given a massive shake up. Let’s hope it gets better and real soon!
What does this have to do with QF recruitment? Well as per the Sunrise thread there will
be desperate pilots out there, expats that don’t care and just want to be back based on home soil.
The industry has just been given a massive shake up. Let’s hope it gets better and real soon!
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Totally agree. Ive been told both QF and JQ recruitment and ground schools postponed, hopefully this blows over soon, but it’s difficult to guess how long it will take until things normalize again.
QF ground schools are still on track. Lots of people kicking off and those with dates have heard nothing.
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My guess is that anyone with a signed contract is still going ahead with their allocated ground school. All others who have been given a tentative start date which is meant to be confirmed 6-8 weeks prior might be waiting longer than expected.
Nunc est bibendum
March course is a go.
The plan at the moment is for courses scheduled through to the end of the FY to still go ahead. Obviously though this could change if Coronavirus makes it clear that it should change. So the April, May and June courses should be OK- not sure if there is two scheduled for Mar... second one would start on 31 Mar and then late April, late May, late June. There remains a chance they may not. Clear as mud!
Beyond that will be looked at in the next couple of months but not looking likely at the moment. Depends a little on other decisions Qantas makes over the next few months.
The plan at the moment is for courses scheduled through to the end of the FY to still go ahead. Obviously though this could change if Coronavirus makes it clear that it should change. So the April, May and June courses should be OK- not sure if there is two scheduled for Mar... second one would start on 31 Mar and then late April, late May, late June. There remains a chance they may not. Clear as mud!
Beyond that will be looked at in the next couple of months but not looking likely at the moment. Depends a little on other decisions Qantas makes over the next few months.
With a slowdown in line flying now would be a great time for any outstanding pilot training to occur to ensure that when demand does return by mid year (I believe the virus numbers will decline as we head out of the northern hemisphere winter) a lack of resourcing won't cause any problems. Can probably work on any outstanding maintenance over the next few months as well.
So far there is no evidence to suggest that corona viruses in general, or SARS-CoV-2 in particular, are purely seasonal.
The classic common cold viruses are rampant from autumn to spring, but show up throughout the year. It may well be that seasonal peaks become apparent.
This virus is going to be ubiquitous. How people adjust in the long term will determine the future of our industry. If the best case is that the virus is seasonal, eventually people may lose their desire for trans-equator international travel. If on average nine or ten passengers per plane load end up dead you can guess what will happen.
The classic common cold viruses are rampant from autumn to spring, but show up throughout the year. It may well be that seasonal peaks become apparent.
This virus is going to be ubiquitous. How people adjust in the long term will determine the future of our industry. If the best case is that the virus is seasonal, eventually people may lose their desire for trans-equator international travel. If on average nine or ten passengers per plane load end up dead you can guess what will happen.
This virus is going to be ubiquitous. How people adjust in the long term will determine the future of our industry. If the best case is that the virus is seasonal, eventually people may lose their desire for trans-equator international travel. If on average nine or ten passengers per plane load end up dead you can guess what will happen.
I sincerely hope you are wrong, and I hope those in the know are doing what they can. Stay safe and happy flying.
I am trying to be a realist. I only read recognised experts in the field, and articles in respected journals and periodicals. I would rather be prepared to the extent that I am able this time than rely on unsound optimism.
I shouldn’t have written “nine or ten in every planeload” because of course not every traveller will be infected, or get a cold, or get the flu. But this virus IS more contagious than either of those things, and of course does kill approx 3% of its victims.
It may be that worldwide for a year or two the death rate from all causes bumps up a bit from this virus and that eventually people will adapt to this new reality. People are hardwired to be more afraid of contagion than other things, the same way they are more afraid of sharks than lightning. Perception, like in most things, may be the key to our industry's future.
I shouldn’t have written “nine or ten in every planeload” because of course not every traveller will be infected, or get a cold, or get the flu. But this virus IS more contagious than either of those things, and of course does kill approx 3% of its victims.
It may be that worldwide for a year or two the death rate from all causes bumps up a bit from this virus and that eventually people will adapt to this new reality. People are hardwired to be more afraid of contagion than other things, the same way they are more afraid of sharks than lightning. Perception, like in most things, may be the key to our industry's future.
As a rule, these virus mutate so as not to kill their hosts.
On a personal note, we have probably just blown the $20,000 we paid on our Italian summer holiday, including sailing in Croatia and a week in Vietnam on the way home - all flying Vietnam airlines business class.
However we must wait and see. It’s too early to tell the severity of this thing so that we can make informed decisions about risk. The data from China(and the rest of Asia) is suspect and there is not yet reliable data from a first world country until we get Italian data.
We don’t know the fatality rates despite the comforting bullshyte from the authorities. What we do know is that older people are most at risk and that they are going to require intensive care to pull through. That isn’t going to be available in a major outbreak. So while the CFR may be “3%” of the population it could be 50% of those of us over 65 - and don’t believe a word about “other medical conditions” either.
Despite protestations, there will be economists and public servants who will look on the bright side of all those dead oldies: lower costs of old age pensions and medicare, less pressure on nursing home places, increased availability of housing, etc.
Furthermore, beware of axe grinders, confidence tricksters, doomsayers and loonies. This infection will bring them out in droves. This infection might vanish like summer snow in a few months.
On a personal note, we have probably just blown the $20,000 we paid on our Italian summer holiday, including sailing in Croatia and a week in Vietnam on the way home - all flying Vietnam airlines business class.
However we must wait and see. It’s too early to tell the severity of this thing so that we can make informed decisions about risk. The data from China(and the rest of Asia) is suspect and there is not yet reliable data from a first world country until we get Italian data.
We don’t know the fatality rates despite the comforting bullshyte from the authorities. What we do know is that older people are most at risk and that they are going to require intensive care to pull through. That isn’t going to be available in a major outbreak. So while the CFR may be “3%” of the population it could be 50% of those of us over 65 - and don’t believe a word about “other medical conditions” either.
Despite protestations, there will be economists and public servants who will look on the bright side of all those dead oldies: lower costs of old age pensions and medicare, less pressure on nursing home places, increased availability of housing, etc.
Furthermore, beware of axe grinders, confidence tricksters, doomsayers and loonies. This infection will bring them out in droves. This infection might vanish like summer snow in a few months.
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The pilots have not had a briefing on the details of this but sunstate, eastern, jetstar and network all out of the picture says the general talk. But no informations from the big dogs.
As a rule, these virus mutate so as not to kill their hosts.
On a personal note, we have probably just blown the $20,000 we paid on our Italian summer holiday, including sailing in Croatia and a week in Vietnam on the way home - all flying Vietnam airlines business class.
However we must wait and see. It’s too early to tell the severity of this thing so that we can make informed decisions about risk. The data from China(and the rest of Asia) is suspect and there is not yet reliable data from a first world country until we get Italian data.
We don’t know the fatality rates despite the comforting bullshyte from the authorities. What we do know is that older people are most at risk and that they are going to require intensive care to pull through. That isn’t going to be available in a major outbreak. So while the CFR may be “3%” of the population it could be 50% of those of us over 65 - and don’t believe a word about “other medical conditions” either.
Despite protestations, there will be economists and public servants who will look on the bright side of all those dead oldies: lower costs of old age pensions and medicare, less pressure on nursing home places, increased availability of housing, etc.
Furthermore, beware of axe grinders, confidence tricksters, doomsayers and loonies. This infection will bring them out in droves. This infection might vanish like summer snow in a few months.
On a personal note, we have probably just blown the $20,000 we paid on our Italian summer holiday, including sailing in Croatia and a week in Vietnam on the way home - all flying Vietnam airlines business class.
However we must wait and see. It’s too early to tell the severity of this thing so that we can make informed decisions about risk. The data from China(and the rest of Asia) is suspect and there is not yet reliable data from a first world country until we get Italian data.
We don’t know the fatality rates despite the comforting bullshyte from the authorities. What we do know is that older people are most at risk and that they are going to require intensive care to pull through. That isn’t going to be available in a major outbreak. So while the CFR may be “3%” of the population it could be 50% of those of us over 65 - and don’t believe a word about “other medical conditions” either.
Despite protestations, there will be economists and public servants who will look on the bright side of all those dead oldies: lower costs of old age pensions and medicare, less pressure on nursing home places, increased availability of housing, etc.
Furthermore, beware of axe grinders, confidence tricksters, doomsayers and loonies. This infection will bring them out in droves. This infection might vanish like summer snow in a few months.
I am sure a worldly man such as yourself would have travel insurance!!!
Now back to topic... employment...
I am sure a worldly man such as yourself would have travel insurance!!!
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So back on Topic, what kind of trips could a new hire expect on the 787, assuming a Perth Base? I'm guessing a lot of LHR returns etc? Would this be one of the longer trips Qf do?
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We may even go back to some of the places we couldn’t make a profit on before with the 747 which look a lot better with 787 economics such as Rome and Athens.
For me, I live in Sydney, and the commuting 5 hours to work was taking its toll so I’m now in the MEL base waiting for SYD to open later this year. Most of my flying now is USA, Mainly SFO which is also a great city. I have been flying with some Perth based S/Os that have had patterns built out of PER so I think the company are starting to mix up the flying a bit. You’d probably see a US pattern in each roster if that’s what you bid for. Otherwise it would primarily be Europe. The last trip I did was MEL-SFO-MEL and changed one of the two S/Os in SFO. The new S/O was a lovely lady I had flown with from the PER base a few times to LHR. Her pattern was pax PER-SYD, operate SYD-SFO-MEL, pax MEL-PER. with 24 hour slips in SYD and MEL with 48 hours in SFO.
So, after that long winded post, you would do mainly Europe, with some US mixed in for variety.