Qantas Recruitment
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Its does indeed Keg, thanks for taking the time to share the info.
So a new joiner today could very roughly be expecting (and yes, this is based on some pretty big assumptions) a WB FO position in 10 years, and command in 13 years given expected retirements projected out at a constantly high rate beyond 2025. Good to get some decent numbers, as I have heard some wildly varying guessing bandied around.
Quite the mess HR has created curtain twitcher, getting back ahead of an increasingly big curve is going to be a big challenge. Meantime the drivers tend to get flogged while HR tries to fix their own mistake!
So a new joiner today could very roughly be expecting (and yes, this is based on some pretty big assumptions) a WB FO position in 10 years, and command in 13 years given expected retirements projected out at a constantly high rate beyond 2025. Good to get some decent numbers, as I have heard some wildly varying guessing bandied around.
Quite the mess HR has created curtain twitcher, getting back ahead of an increasingly big curve is going to be a big challenge. Meantime the drivers tend to get flogged while HR tries to fix their own mistake!
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Toga, as pilots age, the rate of medical terminations increases significantly. Each Captain who retires or leaves medically generates a significant number of training courses behind them. One A380/B747 Captain retirement could generate 5+ training course behind them. The consequence of this that as both the rate of growth and retirements increase, there is a disproportinate backlog of training. You could potentially have 5~10% of pilots in training at any one time.
The peculiarities of this seniority system, and the implications & consequences appear to have escaped senior management, and the delay in training & recruitment back in 2015 has put them significantly on the back of the drag curve. The training system then became clogged and further exacerbated the issue and increased significantly time off line in the training system (6 to 9 months to do a type course), a training death spiral
The peculiarities of this seniority system, and the implications & consequences appear to have escaped senior management, and the delay in training & recruitment back in 2015 has put them significantly on the back of the drag curve. The training system then became clogged and further exacerbated the issue and increased significantly time off line in the training system (6 to 9 months to do a type course), a training death spiral
The Retirement numbers listed by Keg are at best conservative.Higher numbers are actually retiring due medicals or pilots leaving before they MUST retire. With the pilot shortage pilots are flying maximum divisors and that’s putting pressure on all pilots too. Many have left prior to retirement age.
As Keg mentioned the numbers get pretty large anyway.
They also assume little to no growth. Regardless as Cpt Curtain mentioned each retirement requires multiple training slots to cover the multiple movements.
The pilot academy will take many years to provide the hundreds of pilots that Alan Joyce has said Qantas will need annually.
Nunc est bibendum
You can’t fly long haul (787, 744, A380, A330) beyond the age of 65 due to overseas licensing requirements. US, Indonesia and a few others don’t allow a pilot of an airliner to be 65.
Most people hitting that age give it away. Some don’t want to or have to keep going so they bid to the 737. It’s a very small minority of maybe 3-5 per annum.
Most people hitting that age give it away. Some don’t want to or have to keep going so they bid to the 737. It’s a very small minority of maybe 3-5 per annum.
I know a great number of people are still awaiting to hear back from the latest round and certainly not taking anything away from this however is anyone aware of when it is likely QF will offer future recruitment rounds? Both internally and externally?
Nunc est bibendum
I’ve not heard anything official because to be frank, this recruiting round will likely see us with enough people on hold to last until at least the end of next year. So I’d be stunned if they opened up again before mid next year. More likely I suspect it’ll be closer to Sep/ Oct 2019 (at the earliest) for starts post March/ April 2020.
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I’ve not heard anything official because to be frank, this recruiting round will likely see us with enough people on hold to last until at least the end of next year. So I’d be stunned if they opened up again before mid next year. More likely I suspect it’ll be closer to Sep/ Oct 2019 (at the earliest) for starts post March/ April 2020.
So that applicants who meet mins/people who wish to change employers/ former applicants with a defer period now over can reapply?
Why does qf recruitment have to be such a big secret?
Yes it may create a larger work load for HR....therefore justifying their position within an airline.
Mmmm. Sound planning. I use the same technique with fuel - Unless I’ve got none, I don’t add any. After all; you can put fuel in a jet, or access pilots any time you want. Much like ‘just in time’ recruiting, this type of planning ends in a massive cluster-fuk. At the very least.
Mmmm. Sound planning. I use the same technique with fuel - Unless I’ve got none, I don’t add any. After all; you can put fuel in a jet, or access pilots any time you want. Much like ‘just in time’ recruiting, this type of planning ends in a massive cluster-fuk. At the very least.
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The ultimate solution will probably need to rationalisation and significant reduction in Domestic group complexity to a couple of core common fleets and long term similar pay & career structures as a retention strategy to enable them to keep the aircraft flying. The game of playing one group off against another is now looming as a very large training liability. Until this is understood and internalised as a truth at the most senior levels of the company & Board expect expect a continuous rolling crisis with pilot numbers Domestically across all operations.
Airlines seeing record numbers of passengers but fewer flights.
Airlines seeing record numbers of passengers but fewer flights
Airlines seeing record numbers of passengers but fewer flights
In 2017, the number of passengers who flew domestic U.S. flights broke all previous records for the third straight year, and 2018 appears poised to smash the record yet again.
But even as airlines filled planes with 741 million domestic passengers in 2017, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), they offered 18.5% fewer flights than at the peak in 2005, a result of the carriers' shift toward larger aircraft in order to reduce costs and toward denser seat configurations to increase revenue.
Between 2007 and 2017, while the number of domestic U.S. air travelers increased by 9.2%, the average number of passengers per flight jumped from 69 to 91, BTS statistics show.
Upgauging -- industry parlance for using larger aircraft -- has been an economic winner for mainline airlines, and it has helped some regional carriers survive a pilot shortage that forced them to drastically increase pilot pay.
Seth Kaplan, managing partner for the newsletter Airline Weekly, said, "The economics on the cost side always favor a larger aircraft." Overall, he noted that there is less pilot cost per passenger. Also, "Upgauging also saves on engine maintenance and airport fees. There are just powerful incentives to try and get more seats per flights."
Larger aircraft also offer benefits to travelers. For example, few flyers would miss having to duck their heads as they walked the aisles of small regional aircraft.
But trading more flights on smaller planes for fewer flights on larger ones can also come at a cost to travelers, most notably in the form of decreased connectivity in smaller markets and a general reduction in route frequencies.
Faye Malarkey Black, president of the Regional Airline Association (RAA), said, "An airport can gain seats in a way that actually reduces meaningful connectivity. In smaller markets, in particular, it's critical to right-size the aircraft to the passenger base. Frequency and departure options are maintained through use of right-size aircraft."
Upgauging and seat densification have been a common theme across the industry. JetBlue, for example, used to fly only 100-seat Embraer E-190s and 150-seat Airbus A320s. But the carrier took its first delivery of the larger Airbus A321 in 2013, according to the website Planespotters.net, and now has 58 A321s in its fleet, with configurations ranging from 159 to 200 seats.
In the meantime, JetBlue is also in the process of adding two rows to its A320s, boosting the seat count from 150 to 162. And in the years ahead, the carrier plans to replace its E-190s with Airbus A220-300s, which are built to carry between 130 and 160 passengers.
Similarly, at the end of 2007, the Southwest fleet primarily consisted of 137-seat Boeing 737 variants, along with 25 122-seat Boeing 737-500. By the end of last year, Southwest had phased out the 737-500s, added 175-seat 737-800s to its mix, and densified those 137-seat 737-700s to 143 seats.
The Big 3 legacy U.S. carriers Delta, United and American have also upgauged their mainline fleets. But perhaps the most dramatic changes have come in the regional fleets owned both by the Big 3 and by the regional airlines themselves.
According to the RAA, the total number of 36- to 50-seat aircraft in U.S. regional airline fleets declined by half between 2008 and 2017, dropping the portion of the regional fleet those planes comprise from 75% to just more than 40%. Meanwhile, during that same time frame, regional carriers more than doubled their inventory of two-class jets, which seat between 65 and 90 passengers.
According to the trade organization Airlines for America, in 2005, 45% of U.S. domestic flights were operated on aircraft with 50 seats or less. This year that figure is down to 22%.
Symbolic of the upgauging of regional jets was the retirement by American Airlines' regional subsidiary Piedmont in July of its last Bombardier Dash 8 turboprop plane. With that retirement, turboprops are no longer in the fleet of any of the Big 3, according to Brett Snyder, who writes the Cranky Flier blog.
The gradual draw-down of smaller regional aircraft is benefitting consumers, said Mark Drusch, a former Delta senior vice president who is now a vice president in the aviation wing of the consultancy ICF.
Jets in the 70-to-90-seat range, he said, have wider seats and larger lavatories than smaller regional aircraft. They also have full overhead bins and high enough interiors for passengers to stand straight.
"From a comfort perspective, you just have more space," Drusch said.
Larger regional jets also enable airlines to offer a broader product range, including first-class cabins and more basic economy seats, he added.
For regional carriers, which were forced by the nationwide pilot shortage to institute a spate of substantial pay raises and sign-on bonuses beginning in 2015, upgauging has served as something of a lifeline by reducing the aggregate number of pilots needed, said Airline Weekly's Kap-lan.
But as the total number of flights has dropped across the U.S. domestic system, reductions in connectivity have followed.
According to an Airline Weekly analysis of data from the analytics company Diio Mi, the number of domestic city pairs serviced daily by U.S. carriers dropped 11.4% between 2007 and 2017.
Typically, said the RAA's Black, it's the small markets that feel the most impact when airlines reduce departures.
A total of 256 U.S. commercial airports saw a reduction in departures of 10% or more between 2013 and 2017, the RAA said, and 20 airports lost service altogether.
"Increases in seats are practically meaningless if destination options and departures are not also increasing, or at least holding," Black wrote in an email. "Otherwise, a flight with more seats but taking off less often or to fewer destinations is less convenient and less likely to meet individualized traveler needs."
Even with upgauging and the pilot shortage, the news for small U.S. airports has improved somewhat in recent years. Since 2013, the pace of the reductions in total domestic flights has slowed measurably, having dropped less than 2% during that period. Meanwhile, driven by the potential to reap larger profits on routes with less competition, the Big 3 carriers, especially United, have begun placing more focus on regional flying.
Upgauging isn't the only cause of the reduction in domestic flight counts over the past 13 years. Drusch noted that industry consolidation, which brought the number of primary U.S. carriers down from 11 in 2006 to four today, led to the closure of midsize hubs in markets such as Cleveland, Memphis, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati.
Kaplan said consolidation has also enabled carriers to reduce frequencies on some routes.
"When you don't have as many competitors, it's easy for an airline to get away with having fewer frequencies," he said.
Correction: Seth Kaplan, managing partner for the newsletter Airline Weekly, said the economics of larger aircraft led to less pilot cost per passenger. He was misquoted in an earlier version of this article as saying it led to less cost per pilot.
In 2017, the number of passengers who flew domestic U.S. flights broke all previous records for the third straight year, and 2018 appears poised to smash the record yet again.
But even as airlines filled planes with 741 million domestic passengers in 2017, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), they offered 18.5% fewer flights than at the peak in 2005, a result of the carriers' shift toward larger aircraft in order to reduce costs and toward denser seat configurations to increase revenue.
Between 2007 and 2017, while the number of domestic U.S. air travelers increased by 9.2%, the average number of passengers per flight jumped from 69 to 91, BTS statistics show.
Upgauging -- industry parlance for using larger aircraft -- has been an economic winner for mainline airlines, and it has helped some regional carriers survive a pilot shortage that forced them to drastically increase pilot pay.
Seth Kaplan, managing partner for the newsletter Airline Weekly, said, "The economics on the cost side always favor a larger aircraft." Overall, he noted that there is less pilot cost per passenger. Also, "Upgauging also saves on engine maintenance and airport fees. There are just powerful incentives to try and get more seats per flights."
Larger aircraft also offer benefits to travelers. For example, few flyers would miss having to duck their heads as they walked the aisles of small regional aircraft.
But trading more flights on smaller planes for fewer flights on larger ones can also come at a cost to travelers, most notably in the form of decreased connectivity in smaller markets and a general reduction in route frequencies.
Faye Malarkey Black, president of the Regional Airline Association (RAA), said, "An airport can gain seats in a way that actually reduces meaningful connectivity. In smaller markets, in particular, it's critical to right-size the aircraft to the passenger base. Frequency and departure options are maintained through use of right-size aircraft."
Upgauging and seat densification have been a common theme across the industry. JetBlue, for example, used to fly only 100-seat Embraer E-190s and 150-seat Airbus A320s. But the carrier took its first delivery of the larger Airbus A321 in 2013, according to the website Planespotters.net, and now has 58 A321s in its fleet, with configurations ranging from 159 to 200 seats.
In the meantime, JetBlue is also in the process of adding two rows to its A320s, boosting the seat count from 150 to 162. And in the years ahead, the carrier plans to replace its E-190s with Airbus A220-300s, which are built to carry between 130 and 160 passengers.
Similarly, at the end of 2007, the Southwest fleet primarily consisted of 137-seat Boeing 737 variants, along with 25 122-seat Boeing 737-500. By the end of last year, Southwest had phased out the 737-500s, added 175-seat 737-800s to its mix, and densified those 137-seat 737-700s to 143 seats.
The Big 3 legacy U.S. carriers Delta, United and American have also upgauged their mainline fleets. But perhaps the most dramatic changes have come in the regional fleets owned both by the Big 3 and by the regional airlines themselves.
According to the RAA, the total number of 36- to 50-seat aircraft in U.S. regional airline fleets declined by half between 2008 and 2017, dropping the portion of the regional fleet those planes comprise from 75% to just more than 40%. Meanwhile, during that same time frame, regional carriers more than doubled their inventory of two-class jets, which seat between 65 and 90 passengers.
According to the trade organization Airlines for America, in 2005, 45% of U.S. domestic flights were operated on aircraft with 50 seats or less. This year that figure is down to 22%.
Symbolic of the upgauging of regional jets was the retirement by American Airlines' regional subsidiary Piedmont in July of its last Bombardier Dash 8 turboprop plane. With that retirement, turboprops are no longer in the fleet of any of the Big 3, according to Brett Snyder, who writes the Cranky Flier blog.
The gradual draw-down of smaller regional aircraft is benefitting consumers, said Mark Drusch, a former Delta senior vice president who is now a vice president in the aviation wing of the consultancy ICF.
Jets in the 70-to-90-seat range, he said, have wider seats and larger lavatories than smaller regional aircraft. They also have full overhead bins and high enough interiors for passengers to stand straight.
"From a comfort perspective, you just have more space," Drusch said.
Larger regional jets also enable airlines to offer a broader product range, including first-class cabins and more basic economy seats, he added.
For regional carriers, which were forced by the nationwide pilot shortage to institute a spate of substantial pay raises and sign-on bonuses beginning in 2015, upgauging has served as something of a lifeline by reducing the aggregate number of pilots needed, said Airline Weekly's Kap-lan.
But as the total number of flights has dropped across the U.S. domestic system, reductions in connectivity have followed.
According to an Airline Weekly analysis of data from the analytics company Diio Mi, the number of domestic city pairs serviced daily by U.S. carriers dropped 11.4% between 2007 and 2017.
Typically, said the RAA's Black, it's the small markets that feel the most impact when airlines reduce departures.
A total of 256 U.S. commercial airports saw a reduction in departures of 10% or more between 2013 and 2017, the RAA said, and 20 airports lost service altogether.
"Increases in seats are practically meaningless if destination options and departures are not also increasing, or at least holding," Black wrote in an email. "Otherwise, a flight with more seats but taking off less often or to fewer destinations is less convenient and less likely to meet individualized traveler needs."
Even with upgauging and the pilot shortage, the news for small U.S. airports has improved somewhat in recent years. Since 2013, the pace of the reductions in total domestic flights has slowed measurably, having dropped less than 2% during that period. Meanwhile, driven by the potential to reap larger profits on routes with less competition, the Big 3 carriers, especially United, have begun placing more focus on regional flying.
Upgauging isn't the only cause of the reduction in domestic flight counts over the past 13 years. Drusch noted that industry consolidation, which brought the number of primary U.S. carriers down from 11 in 2006 to four today, led to the closure of midsize hubs in markets such as Cleveland, Memphis, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati.
Kaplan said consolidation has also enabled carriers to reduce frequencies on some routes.
"When you don't have as many competitors, it's easy for an airline to get away with having fewer frequencies," he said.
Correction: Seth Kaplan, managing partner for the newsletter Airline Weekly, said the economics of larger aircraft led to less pilot cost per passenger. He was misquoted in an earlier version of this article as saying it led to less cost per pilot.
Nunc est bibendum
Personally I’d do it differently by leaving it open and then every two months or so re-ordering the priority of who I want to look at based upon new or updated applicants but being up front with each individual that we aren’t going to be looking at you for (perhaps) 6 months. But I don’t run pilot recruitment.
Nunc est bibendum
Mmmm. Sound planning. I use the same technique with fuel - Unless I’ve got none, I don’t add any. After all; you can put fuel in a jet, or access pilots any time you want. Much like ‘just in time’ recruiting, this type of planning ends in a massive cluster-fuk. At the very least.
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Taking it WAY too literally! Of course they’ll open up recruitment again before they’ve completely exhausted the hold file. However. Suspect next time they’ll open it up when their are less on hold than they did this time. Of course they also got snookered because the intake courses basically halved in size due to training capacity. So it seems they could have held off a few extra months before starting again in 2018 but didn’t know that at the time.
I see the challenge being the constant feeding of the entry level positions within the group (Dash 8 etc.). Regarding Alans cadet schemes - The fruit of his loins will take years to flower, and produce mini-Alans in pilot uniforms. He’ll be gone when the real shortage appears in Oz. His successor will find themselves saddled with a pilot problem, along with a massive requirement for CapEx on new aircraft.
Cheers
Personally I’d do it differently by leaving it open and then every two months or so re-ordering the priority of who I want to look at based upon new or updated applicants but being up front with each individual that we aren’t going to be looking at you for (perhaps) 6 months. But I don’t run pilot recruitment.
Nunc est bibendum
Yes but that’d be a spectacularly dumb move! It’s good to get people with perspectives and experiences external to ‘the group’.
I’m all for giving opportunities to those within the group but let me throw a scenario out there.
Someone does a cadetship at age 18. A couple of years later they’re a Dash 8 F/O. At age 25 they’re a Dash 8 Captain and a year or two later they’re now part of the hiring process for the regional. So without any knowledge of long haul (or short haul) jet operations, what it involves or even any significant industry experience (7 years in a regional is hardly ‘significant industry experience’), they’re now hiring people into a regional. People here seem to be suggesting that this is the only pool of candidates mainline should be looking at? No freaking way.
I’d like to be taking people from other airlines, people from the RAAF, people who have been C&T on Dash’s and other small turboprops for smaller operators. The wider the level of experience (with experiences across technical, management, etc) that comes into mainline the less chance of it being insular and inward looking and ultimately that builds strength.
So sure give opportunities for progression into mainline from within the group but let’s not consider it a fait accompli. Just because you wear the same uniform or work within the same ‘group’ doesn’t mean that you’ve necessarily demonstrated that you can take the next step. That sort of entitled attitude has already brought a few S/Os undone.
In fact, were they not so desperate to retain crew in QLink and the other group entities they wouldn’t even be setting aside as many positions as they have so let’s not kid ourselves that the Qantas group is offering these positions out of their desire to offer pilots ‘progression’ within the group. It’s a means to an end. Don’t confuse that with you having demonstrated the required standard to progress or you ‘deserving’ to be in mainline. You deserve nothing more than the opportunity to show your stuff and if you’re good enough and better than the next candidate (internal or external), you’re in.
I’m all for giving opportunities to those within the group but let me throw a scenario out there.
Someone does a cadetship at age 18. A couple of years later they’re a Dash 8 F/O. At age 25 they’re a Dash 8 Captain and a year or two later they’re now part of the hiring process for the regional. So without any knowledge of long haul (or short haul) jet operations, what it involves or even any significant industry experience (7 years in a regional is hardly ‘significant industry experience’), they’re now hiring people into a regional. People here seem to be suggesting that this is the only pool of candidates mainline should be looking at? No freaking way.
I’d like to be taking people from other airlines, people from the RAAF, people who have been C&T on Dash’s and other small turboprops for smaller operators. The wider the level of experience (with experiences across technical, management, etc) that comes into mainline the less chance of it being insular and inward looking and ultimately that builds strength.
So sure give opportunities for progression into mainline from within the group but let’s not consider it a fait accompli. Just because you wear the same uniform or work within the same ‘group’ doesn’t mean that you’ve necessarily demonstrated that you can take the next step. That sort of entitled attitude has already brought a few S/Os undone.
In fact, were they not so desperate to retain crew in QLink and the other group entities they wouldn’t even be setting aside as many positions as they have so let’s not kid ourselves that the Qantas group is offering these positions out of their desire to offer pilots ‘progression’ within the group. It’s a means to an end. Don’t confuse that with you having demonstrated the required standard to progress or you ‘deserving’ to be in mainline. You deserve nothing more than the opportunity to show your stuff and if you’re good enough and better than the next candidate (internal or external), you’re in.
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Yeh good points Keg especially the last paragraph... it's all about keeping the money-earners (aircraft) moving so they can keep earning the $$$.
Pilots? They're a liability as Jimmy-bow-tie once slipped out by mistake at an AGM many years back.
The key phrase is though, something you said earlier:
Yes, QF may be gloating that they have many applicants but those applicants now have many options, depending on their lifestyle choice or needs. It's a global market and QF isn't "top of the pops" anymore. This availability of choice for the pilots hasn't happened in decades and it's obvious many HR departments & Airline managements are struggling with the shift in power (so is AIPA and AFAP!!!). The QF Group will continue to lose applicants to other airlines, until they match what's on offer with the airlines they've 'lost them to" and also clean up the "divide & conquer" EBA mess that is Sunnies v Eastern; Jetstar v Mainline; Network v Cobham etc etc etc (Engineering is the same, sadly).
I don't know where people have their heads but they're certainly not seeing what I'm seeing or reading the journals I am because there's a DESPERATE shortage of pilots everywhere now.
Name a continent and I'll give you half a dozen airlines immediately screaming for crew. Legacy carriers are now in the mix too. It's not rocket science... pay more $$$! Share you Managerial Bonuses around, to those at the coal-face instead of what amounts to blackmail bonuses.
Perth is a classic example that shows the shortage well. When I fly in I see so many Skippers/Cobham/Network/VARA aircraft on the ground... and it's peak morning or afternoon time when they are meant to be flying. Heck QF even have their B747 running a domestic run each day (great for punters and yes I'm aware of the "training bottle-neck").
OPINION: Pilot shortage has no easy solution
Shame on them for wishing another downturn! What bastards to even think it and the realities of what happens to millions of families!
Pilots? They're a liability as Jimmy-bow-tie once slipped out by mistake at an AGM many years back.
The key phrase is though, something you said earlier:
and we’ve lost them to other carriers.
I don't know where people have their heads but they're certainly not seeing what I'm seeing or reading the journals I am because there's a DESPERATE shortage of pilots everywhere now.
Name a continent and I'll give you half a dozen airlines immediately screaming for crew. Legacy carriers are now in the mix too. It's not rocket science... pay more $$$! Share you Managerial Bonuses around, to those at the coal-face instead of what amounts to blackmail bonuses.
Perth is a classic example that shows the shortage well. When I fly in I see so many Skippers/Cobham/Network/VARA aircraft on the ground... and it's peak morning or afternoon time when they are meant to be flying. Heck QF even have their B747 running a domestic run each day (great for punters and yes I'm aware of the "training bottle-neck").
OPINION: Pilot shortage has no easy solution
Shame on them for wishing another downturn! What bastards to even think it and the realities of what happens to millions of families!
Last edited by Chocks Away; 1st Sep 2018 at 11:25.
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Does anyone here have an idea of how many SO's Jetstar still need to recruit for the 787. I've noticed an entire cohort of cadets have just started training on the 787, with another round of cadets finishing late this year and then mid next year. Whats the likelihood of all SO positions being filled by these cadets, would future JQ cadets expect the A320?
Either way way you will get a seniority number, which is all that really matters. Take the first thing Jetstar offers you. Sitting in the back of a 787 to Honolulu 2-3 times a month isn’t the worst job in the world.
One last point, I’m not sure if you are a Jetstar cadet or looking at getting a job externally but whatever you do, if you want to be in Australia DONT AGREE TO GO TO NEW ZEALAND, as there is no pathway to get back to Australia and even if you did you would have to go to the bottom of the seniority list. Many people have been caught out by this.
. Shame on them for wishing another downturn! What bastards to even think it and the realities of what happens to millions of families
A downturn/correction Will happen again, who knows when though, and to what extent. I’d wager good money that it is being countined on to eventually help iron out the Pilot Shortage a little bit.