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Old 23rd Feb 2018, 07:17
  #1121 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Keg
I know of a few Qantas crew who have signed up for further info on the website simply to keep informed as to what’s going on. (I’m not one of them.... I use PPRUNE or Qrewroom to find out what is going on! ).
I did. Just out of curiosity
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Old 23rd Feb 2018, 07:20
  #1122 (permalink)  
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Go to the "Qantas Group Pilot Academy" website and you will see some brief details of the QF academy plans,
a person can register and submit their details at the bottom of the page.

I've seen this all before when there was a train driver shortage in Sydney, people from all walks of life show up on
the assessment day, various ages, qualifications and expectations, the same thing will happen with people hoping
to be aQF pilot, people will come from different ages, career paths, qualifications, etc.

Don't think everyone that apply's is really interested in aviation. No.

This QF pilot academy has been in the news continuously for 48 hours now and yes, i believe what they're saying, that
5,000 people have registered their interest, same story as when there was a train driver shortage a decade ago.
There will probably be over 10,000 people registering.

How many people apply for flight attendant positions each year?
Thousands of applicants, same thing will happen here.

I don't believe QF will have the capacity to train 200 new pilots a year, yet alone 500 a year, it's too many people at one facility,
not enough instructors,i believe they will probably get the students that finish the course, to do the instructing for a certain time frame.

They're my thoughts. Cheers.
 
Old 23rd Feb 2018, 07:49
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If it was news to all of you guys perhaps that’s somewhat telling. You guys are normally the reincarnation of Gladys Kravitz. Losing your touch. Hehe
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Old 23rd Feb 2018, 07:51
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$20 million is a lot to throw at a project, so they do look pretty serious but...

If all airlines are struggling to find pilots now, like as in - today, and it’s going to be years before this academy produces its first (inexperienced) pilot, I can’t see this academy being the fix that they need.

If they really have (up to) 5000 applicants, imagine how many interviews/ psych testing/ reviews etc they will have to do, both on acceptance into the academy and after graduating...forget months worth of work for HR - this will take years. Especially considering it’s taking some airlines over 18 months to process pilot applicants now, like as in - today, with all systems currently up and running.

Maybe is this all driven by HR, they’re successfully convincing everyone that this is the fix and they’ve just secured themselves years worth of work.

Flight schools are closing, there’s no instructors around anymore, so I don’t know how they’re going to get this up and running anytime soon. I agree, 2021 optimistically and again, that’ll be the first inexperienced pilot.

Also how much is this going to cost the poor student? We’re talking 6 figures but if there’s a good chance you’ll go to Qantas, would they charge a premium? $120,000? $140,000? I don’t know. I just hope that if someone forks out that sort of cash, that HR don’t just drop the program and pathway at their instant discretion as they’ve historically done.
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Old 23rd Feb 2018, 08:14
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$20 million is a lot to throw at a project, so they do look pretty serious but...
Qantas made a PROFIT of $ 976 million (pre tax, which they will not pay) for the first six months of this financial year. So put it in context.

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/me...-and-training/
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Old 23rd Feb 2018, 08:17
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[QUOTE=Icarus2001;10062393]Qantas made a PROFIT of $ 976 million (pre tax, which they will not pay) for the first six months of this financial year. So put it in context.

Oh yeah...very true.

Also less than 10 months worth of work for some people, so I see your point.
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Old 23rd Feb 2018, 09:03
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He said "up to 5,000 applicants..."
Could be kids with dreams too.

We stated the shortage was global. The research supports a structural and demographic shortage. Australia is no different.


Airline management with their adversarial employment models will eventually change. In the interim it will be more of the same, Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt.

The curtain has been pulled back. For the first time the paradigm favours the employee.

It is delicious irony that airlines are now finding themselves acknowledging a shortage in a skill set that every waking hour of their HR/IR structures is dedicated to denigrating.
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Old 23rd Feb 2018, 09:32
  #1128 (permalink)  
 
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It is delicious irony that airlines are now finding themselves acknowledging a shortage in a skill set that every waking hour of their HR/IR structures is dedicated to denigrating.
Combined with the depression on terms and conditions, work/life balance within the industry and they might find that the number of people actually willing to go through with this training and career option might be significantly less than the number of 'tyre kickers.'

Not many kids walk around looking starry eyed toward an aircraft flying over anymore or are willing to sacrifice anything to achieve the dream.
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Old 23rd Feb 2018, 14:25
  #1129 (permalink)  
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Once you get rid of the tire kickers and the sticky beaks and then start whittling away st the candidate list you’re left with people who STILL have to be able to pony up some serious $$$ in order to undertake the course.

500 a year is 40 new starters every month. They’ll all need to do circa 150 hours for a CPL- although a proper airline flying training academy should be looking at more than the bare minimum.

Once you sort out the subjects the flying is done in roughly a 12 month time frame. So a minimum of 75,000 hours per annum. They won’t fly 7 days a week so it’ll be closer to 5 so that’s 260 available flying days- less if you knock out public holidays. It’ll be hard to average more than 8 hours stick per day per aeroplane so 8 x 260 is the total number of hours an aeroplane will do per annum. Once you include the 100 hourlies it’s going to decrease again. Back of the envelope calculations are somewhere north of 50 aeroplanes.

They’ll likely need an instructor for half to two thirds of the course so likely to need north of 50 flying instructors too. Realistically they’ll need closer to 70 I reckon

Can anyone realistically see this occurring at any existing facility in Australia? Can anyone seeing it happening in Australia ever? Where are they going to find 70ish flying instructors who are of a decent standard and aren’t trying to hour build or are recent graduates (which again is hardly the standard to be seeking)?

I wish them luck. I reckon the first graduates will come out no earlier than mid 2020.
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Old 23rd Feb 2018, 17:58
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Originally Posted by Keg
Once you get rid of the tire kickers and the sticky beaks and then start whittling away st the candidate list you’re left with people who STILL have to be able to pony up some serious $$$ in order to undertake the course.

500 a year is 40 new starters every month. They’ll all need to do circa 150 hours for a CPL- although a proper airline flying training academy should be looking at more than the bare minimum.

Once you sort out the subjects the flying is done in roughly a 12 month time frame. So a minimum of 75,000 hours per annum. They won’t fly 7 days a week so it’ll be closer to 5 so that’s 260 available flying days- less if you knock out public holidays. It’ll be hard to average more than 8 hours stick per day per aeroplane so 8 x 260 is the total number of hours an aeroplane will do per annum. Once you include the 100 hourlies it’s going to decrease again. Back of the envelope calculations are somewhere north of 50 aeroplanes.

They’ll likely need an instructor for half to two thirds of the course so likely to need north of 50 flying instructors too. Realistically they’ll need closer to 70 I reckon

Can anyone realistically see this occurring at any existing facility in Australia? Can anyone seeing it happening in Australia ever? Where are they going to find 70ish flying instructors who are of a decent standard and aren’t trying to hour build or are recent graduates (which again is hardly the standard to be seeking)?

I wish them luck. I reckon the first graduates will come out no earlier than mid 2020.
Perhaps a facility that was once used for training ADF and is now underutilized?
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Old 23rd Feb 2018, 20:54
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It was only yesterday, they got rid of 100 pilots giving them VR!!...just another load of bull**** this guy continues to make up fairy stories with little challenge...hope QF survives...but won’t if continued to be run by thieves.
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Old 23rd Feb 2018, 21:25
  #1132 (permalink)  
Keg

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Originally Posted by havick
Perhaps a facility that was once used for training ADF and is now underutilized?
I said previously that BAE Tamworth seemed a good option. Do they have the capacity for 500 residential pilots at the one time? I wouldn’t have thought so. Do they have enough civvie QFIs? Could they even surge that much?

This is going to be a very, very difficult proposition as the issue they’re trying to solve (lack of pilots) is going to impinge on their ability to train the numbers they’re talking about.
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Old 23rd Feb 2018, 21:49
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Could this be the RedQ of flight training?
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Old 23rd Feb 2018, 21:55
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You make some interesting points in your posts Keg, a lot of flying to be done to train that many cadets. Fifty flying instructors on the books, means 300 weeks annual leave just for starters, not to mention LAMES, sim instructors etc.

It will be a shame for the guys and girls currently in GA, are pushed aside for the the Qantas cadets in future recruiting.

Interesting times ahead in the business, lots of guys that learnt fly in the late 1960’s, are in the transition to retirement or retired. That leaves the next big flying training cycle in the
late 1970’s, are moving into that retirement phase.
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Old 23rd Feb 2018, 21:59
  #1135 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Keg
I said previously that BAE Tamworth seemed a good option. Do they have the capacity for 500 residential pilots at the one time? I wouldn’t have thought so. Do they have enough civvie QFIs? Could they even surge that much?

This is going to be a very, very difficult proposition as the issue they’re trying to solve (lack of pilots) is going to impinge on their ability to train the numbers they’re talking about.
If my memory serves me, each of the seven student buildings could accommodate about 30 people - although there was never that many at BFTS at once. As for the training staff, mix of military and civilian, were probably set up to train a maximum of 60ish students across three ‘classes’ at once. They also had to run the flight screening program.

I’d think that unless the background work for this had been started quite a while ago, the BAE staff may have started to look elsewhere for employment.

Probably the biggest question regarding the viability of this option is whether or not the aero club has capacity for Friday night drinks!
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Old 23rd Feb 2018, 22:00
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When Red Q was announced with much fanfare, it seemed irrelevant that there was not a country, nor a base chosen other than 'somewhere in Asia', maybe Singapore, maybe Malaysia.

With Megaphone diplomacy Boston Bruce and the little chap announced JQ would have over 400 aircraft in Asia by 2020. JQ HK didn't meet the prima facie test of the Principal Place of Business criteria. He announced it anyway.

As it is with the death of investigative journalism, the rumour is reported as a given, little scrutiny is conducted and probing questions are discouraged as the advertising spend is vital for what is left of print media. As readership declines the power of any narrative control is lessened.

This idea in our summation is a response to a growing realisation that the shortage is real and sustained. Hastily cobbled together and ill thought out. Somewhere in there will be more corporate welfare.

However they need a new fleet and as far as pilots are concerned they are acknowledging that there is indeed a shortage. That is $20 million that won't be wasted on jollies and favourable press coverage for 'journalists' to go to Seatlle to pick up an aircraft that he describes as game changing, although he doesn't mention there are already 600 flying..
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Old 23rd Feb 2018, 22:14
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How many LAMEs also? They won’t screw them on $$ either as they do their present ones.👍👍
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Old 23rd Feb 2018, 22:45
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For the best part of three decades management held the upper hand.

  • The employee relations model is ill suited to the reality that demographics are not supportive of adversarial relations.

  • Governments were happy for real wages to decline, that is why wage growth is effectively nil. Employers outsourced, used 457 type visas and fear to control labour unit cost.

These two points have driven many new pilots (and new graduates) elsewhere as terms and conditions no longer provide a reasonable return on investment. One might quip the 'model' was too successful.

As it is in Europe and the USA, it is now in Australia: Qualified Pilots are in short supply.

This is another ill conceived, hastily cobbled together sound bite with as much substance as his other 'game changing' announcements.

The tide is turning.
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Old 23rd Feb 2018, 23:03
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I note, with sadness, that the late, great Ben Sandilands' shoes are still empty... 😔
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Old 23rd Feb 2018, 23:05
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Can someone tell me exactly what “non adversarial” industrial relations look like? Apart from gigantic cost blow outs because what it really means is union demands of all QF flight numbers being paid mainline rates or similar? Some details on what this would look like would be helpful - not just motherhood statements about “respect” and “taking your pilots with you” and naive and oversimplified pointing at Southwest Airline, which has recently has plenty of adversarial relations.
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