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Old 21st Feb 2018, 22:00
  #1101 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Troo believer
The lead time for this sort of programme is at least 3-5 years. Qantas had better pull it’s finger out. The rate of projected retirements is averaging 60-100 per year in the next few years and increasing after that. If 100 senior pilots retire it requires close to 500 training slots as pilots progress up the promotion ladder. They’d better hurry up but judging by past performance the implementation gate will be missed. Together with a fleet renewal and retirement requirement the perfect storm is brewing with the Training sections being stretched for the foreseeable future. Most current Captains on the 380 and 747 have probably 5-8 years before they pull the pin.
Either way it will be great to see a new generation continue with a flying career.
It’s not difficult to buy an existing certificate.

I agree there is a pilot shortage, however it’s a lot easier to mitigate in countries that do not require a pilot hold an ATP in order to be in the cockpit of airline ops.
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Old 21st Feb 2018, 22:05
  #1102 (permalink)  
 
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Wonder if these new Trainees will be straight to Mainline, or filling the slots in JQ/Network/Link/Jetconnect as the more experience crew move up the ranks?
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Old 21st Feb 2018, 22:10
  #1103 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Brakerider
Wonder if these new Trainees will be straight to Mainline, or filling the slots in JQ/Network/Link/Jetconnect as the more experience crew move up the ranks?
The article says QF group. So it looks like they’re trying to keep jetstar, link etc stocked. Of course some will go straight to mainline which is how they will sell this scheme to youngens that don’t know any different.
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Old 22nd Feb 2018, 05:18
  #1104 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Troo believer
From Alan Joyce
So, I’m pleased to announce plans for the Qantas Group Pilot Academy.
We want to attract men and women – ideally, in equal numbers – to be the next generation of pilots on our network. To learn from the best. And to be the best.
Initially, the academy will train about 100 pilots per year. But, over time, we see potential for it grow – and be a centre of excellence in the Southern Hemisphere, with up to 500 pilots per year
So they can recruit a whole new generation of “cadets” to string along on empty promises of Qantas greatness only to toss them aside when the next HR dept thinks they know better...
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Old 22nd Feb 2018, 17:13
  #1105 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by FogBuster
So they can recruit a whole new generation of “cadets” to string along on empty promises of Qantas greatness only to toss them aside when the next HR dept thinks they know better...
Pretty much sums it up.
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Old 22nd Feb 2018, 19:55
  #1106 (permalink)  
 
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Question:

These threats and promises are not new. Have any of them come true before or are they simply words intended to plant a seed of doubt?

The so called academy is just another empty promise that only serves to muddy the waters.
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Old 22nd Feb 2018, 20:06
  #1107 (permalink)  
Seagull201
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Watching the morning show just now, QF are saying up to 5,000 applicants have registered or expressed an interest in the last 24 hours to training at the proposed Qantas Flying school next year (2019),
apparently the company needs 500 a year for their own requirements, whether this figure is correct or not, not sure.

My gut feeling is, who ever gets into this course and completes the required frozen ATPL (CPL/ME IR-ATPL subjects) programme, those persons shall be employed within the QF group, when ever it happens.
It's virtually guaranteed. It's very hard for anyone to convince me this won't be the case.

It appears on face value that most of QF's pilots in the future, shall come from this pool.
Other airlines such as SQ, LH, have their own cadet programmes or aviation schools, this doesn't surprise me.

The big question is, if someone wants to start pilot training these days, or in the near future and doesn't do their training at the new QF flying school,
does it mean a person could be disadvantaged in trying to get a flight crew position within the company?
As all the people training at the QF flying school could be at an advantage. Agree?

Looking at the big picture, if a person wants to train as a pilot (no experience or license) and they don't get into the REX scheme or train at the new QF school,
is it really worth it, for a person to get into a massive HECS debt (85k CPL plus ME IR and the rest) and do the hard grind in General Aviation?
Not sure, because if a person isn't flying for a regional or the main two groups, they're missing out on the money.
 
Old 22nd Feb 2018, 20:16
  #1108 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Blitzkrieger
The so called academy is just another empty promise that only serves to muddy the waters.

If I put on my cynic's hat, I would argue this is cunning an attempt to monetise a crisis, or in accountant speak another create another GCU (Cash Generating Unit). You have to give him credit for attempting to turn a potential liability into a stream of cash for the shareholders.


Originally Posted by Alan Joyce
“Over time, we see potential for the academy to become a competitive advantage for Australia in the region. It could train pilots for other airlines and grow into the largest academy of its kind in the southern hemisphere,” added Mr Joyce.

The academy will initially train around 100 pilots a year for direct entry into the Qantas Group, including Jetstar and regional carrier, QantasLink. Depending on demand from other parts of the aviation industry, this could grow to 500 pilots a year on a fee-for-service basis.
The best bit, get someone else to pay you for the pleasure, ie a State & Federal Governments. Note the euphemistic code for subsidies.

Originally Posted by Alan Joyce
In establishing the academy, Qantas will partner with one of several existing training providers. It will also engage with Federal, State and Territory governments to discuss possible locations.
Qantas Newsroom: QANTAS GROUP ANNOUNCES PILOT ACADEMY

or framed another way,
Mr Joyce said Qantas wanted to give the states and territories "a fair shake" to get involved in a project that could boost local economies.
Qantas plans to address a global pilot shortage by setting up what it says could be the southern hemisphere's largest flight academy.
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Old 22nd Feb 2018, 21:22
  #1109 (permalink)  
Keg

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My money’s on BAE Tamworth and suspect that’s who QF may already have in mind.

Ever since I found out there were only 1300 applicantsfor mainline after 9 years of not recruiting I (and others) have been telling our management that they’d likely face a critical shortage of suitable applicants by 2020.

I agree with CurtainTwitcher’s assessment. They’re looking to turn what would be an administrative/ cost burden were it to be a traditional Cadetship (where QF have to provide oversight and so on) into potentially a money spinner.

Of course the real key is selecting the right candidates. Let’s see how that plays out.

The other question is where does this place QLink’s future pilot program? Seems a bit of a waste in the greater scheme of things. It also has greater implications for the the Uni aviation courses if 18 year old HSC graduates start heading toward this Qantas Pilot Academy instead.
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Old 22nd Feb 2018, 21:31
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My uninformed 2 cents but, next year at any point seems ridiculously optimistic, unless they are already quite a way down the garden path with this. It's always funny how they bring out the "5000 expressions of interest" line (in every industry mind you). So if the first lot of people begin training next year your still looking at around 2 years before you see them in the group. Now we are in 2021.

As Keg says the critical shortage would most likely have already begun. Keg and others will no doubt be able to give a far more accurate appraisal but at this stage are you guys who are in the tent completely certain that this thing will even happen and if so will it happen within the timeline given in the press release?
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Old 22nd Feb 2018, 22:12
  #1111 (permalink)  
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Best to work the timeline backwards. These are absolutely best case time frames.

Start early Jan 19.
Give notice to starters early Dec 19.
Have completed assessments early Nov 19 in order to review and pick your best group to kick off.
If there are (say) 1000 applicants they will interview about 500 or so. That will take at least 3 months so we are back at early August.
Those 500will he picked off the back of online testing completed in early to mid July which means applications should open about June.

Of course you can shorten that timeline a bit if you’re only going to take (say) 8-10 in the first month and then keep working the process as a selection ‘just in time’.

There’s also significant risk in recruiting for a training scheme where you don’t know where it’s to be held or who is going to run it.
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Old 22nd Feb 2018, 22:13
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Short of aligning with a current major flight training operator, (Keg may be heading in the right direction, ie BAe) I fail to see how this could be up and running in 2019. The large schools, FTA, BASAIR, CAE etc are all struggling to recruit and retain instructors as it is. Attempting to create a new operation with skilled and experienced instructors would be difficult.

Last edited by Stretch06; 22nd Feb 2018 at 22:25. Reason: last senetence doubled up.
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Old 22nd Feb 2018, 22:20
  #1113 (permalink)  
 
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I fail to see how this could be up and running in 2019. The large schools, FTA, BASAIR, CAE etc are all struggling to recruit and retain instructors as it is. Attempting to create a new operation would with skilled and experienced instructors would be difficult.
Everything they do is predicated on unlimited supply.

They may try to address this and control supply at the same time, but the fundamental issue remains unchanged; the shortage is structural, it is demographic.
I also concur that BAE Tamworth is the likely place. As i stated in another thread, is the only ILS for miles around! Throw in another bit of corporate welfare, and a few externalities and it is Australia at its finest!

They will be dragged kicking and screaming to the altar of reality, until then spare no expense to keep labour unit costs down!
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Old 22nd Feb 2018, 22:31
  #1114 (permalink)  
 
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Doesn’t Jetstar already have an established Cadet Program with CAE/Oxford at Moorabbin? It’s already set up and training pilots for the group, just rename the program and it’s done.
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Old 22nd Feb 2018, 23:36
  #1115 (permalink)  
 
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Potentially another "optic" here is that enables the Qantas Group to go to the Immigration minister and ask for Skilled Migration (rebadged 457's) visa's, and publicly justify it with a commitment to training locals.


Originally Posted by Seagull201
Looking at the big picture, if a person wants to train as a pilot (no experience or license) and they don't get into the REX scheme or train at the new QF school,
is it really worth it, for a person to get into a massive HECS debt (85k CPL plus ME IR and the rest) and do the hard grind in General Aviation?
Not sure, because if a person isn't flying for a regional or the main two groups, they're missing out on the money.
This is the flip side, it may very will discourage many who do not make the training selection process, knowing that the risks of blowing their money without a prospect of solving the first job problem.
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Old 23rd Feb 2018, 03:09
  #1116 (permalink)  
 
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I guess Joyce is worried that Cathay won't be able to supply Pilots in the required numbers.
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Old 23rd Feb 2018, 05:07
  #1117 (permalink)  
 
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QF are saying up to 5,000 applicants have registered or expressed an interest in the last 24 hours to training at the proposed Qantas Flying school next year (2019)
That would be 208 every hour, including night time.

If you allow for a fifteen hour day more like 333 per hour.

I am calling bull**** on that.

Funny how it is never 4850 or 5080, always a nice round number.
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Old 23rd Feb 2018, 05:18
  #1118 (permalink)  
 
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And completely irrelevant even if true! I'd like to express my interest in becoming the next CEO of Commbank. Pity I couldn't even define what a mortgage was without looking it up....
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Old 23rd Feb 2018, 06:22
  #1119 (permalink)  
 
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He said "up to 5,000 applicants..."

That could be like 2000, 500, or even one.
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Old 23rd Feb 2018, 07:06
  #1120 (permalink)  
Keg

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I know of a few Qantas crew who have signed up for further info on the website simply to keep informed as to what’s going on. (I’m not one of them.... I use PPRUNE or Qrewroom to find out what is going on! ).
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