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Are QF feeling the pinch?

Old 20th Apr 2016, 07:02
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Are QF feeling the pinch?

Story from the ABC News Online web site.
Maybe a few dark clouds ahead

Airline capacity cuts an early warning of Australian economic malaise

By business reporter Andrew Robertson
Posted yesterday at 5:27pm

Qantas has witnessed a steep fall in bookings and Virgin has its own problems.
A domestic capacity cut by Qantas in response to falling bookings could be an early warning that Australia's economy is not as healthy as it appears.

"In the past load factors have been a great lead indicator for what GDP is doing, so this announcement from Qantas may highlight that the Australian economy is actually doing worse than we think," said Kieran Kelly, CEO of Sirius Fund Management.

'You're going to choose the lowest price product'
Motley Fool's Scott Phillips said, despite the aura around Qantas of late, airlines are just cyclical commodities like iron ore and coal.

"It doesn't really matter to you once you're on the plane, whether you're flying Qantas or Virgin or one of the Middle East carriers or the Asian carriers," he said.

"They all do the same job, with about the same safety record and you're going to choose the lowest price product."

Price and capacity have been the traditional battleground for the domestic duopoly.

This time around they are taking a more cautious approach.

"The revenue might suffer for the next few months, or the next year or so, but, overall, their profitability will not fall off the cliff," .
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Old 20th Apr 2016, 07:08
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This actually works quite well for Qantas considering they are a bit under crewed at the moment and they have the resources to ride this out where as I don't know either Virgin can say the same, they are over crewed, paying to much for fuel and have cashflow problems.
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Old 20th Apr 2016, 07:13
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I don't know either Virgin can say the same, they are over crewed
And what do you base this claim on? There is plenty of evidence to the contrary, like the ad hoc leave charts that says I can take leave….like….never.
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Old 20th Apr 2016, 07:37
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Overcrewed? I'll have some of what you're smoking brudda.
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Old 20th Apr 2016, 07:39
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QF feeling the pinch?

Hilarious.
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Old 20th Apr 2016, 07:54
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Is QF feeling the pinch

Did you mean "Is QF feeling the pinch?" or which one of the QFs do you believe is feeling the pinch ?
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Old 20th Apr 2016, 07:55
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A domestic capacity cut by Qantas...
Ummm, no. It was a cut in the amount of growth I thought.
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Old 20th Apr 2016, 09:13
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Storm, teacup.

April is always the softest months for bookings.

It really must be a slow news day.
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Old 20th Apr 2016, 09:46
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65% of the market, worth what 3-4 billion and own just about everything outright. Yeah they're struggling!

How many new frames on order? Share price quadrupled in 5 years?
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Old 20th Apr 2016, 10:04
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Note though, this announcement comes out and the market promptly dumps QF share price by 15%. Chairman buys in to the tune of $100K. Anyone want to take odds on some positive news coming out in the next 4-6 weeks to take the share price back to the $4.15+ mark?
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Old 20th Apr 2016, 10:37
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Shock horror.......insider trading at skippy? Nah surely not
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Old 20th Apr 2016, 11:25
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Originally Posted by OzBob View Post
Did you mean "Is QF feeling the pinch?" or which one of the QFs do you believe is feeling the pinch ?
Both are grammatically correct.
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Old 20th Apr 2016, 12:37
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No, you've all got it wrong - I believe it was on Virgin that Grant was doing the pinching.
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Old 21st Apr 2016, 01:26
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all airlines are feeling the pitch, 1stly


1) Brussels happens & a certain % of people will not fly anywhere especially to Europe


2) Australia is broke, the govts that is. Fed budget in a few weeks. There's no money to be thrown around, but taxes must go up, spending must go down, especially on overgenerous welfare


3) fed election 2 July. Everyone in business, plays wait & see.


So in other words, for next 72 days, airlines will be tripping over themselves to give away seats.


Hell just got an email saying $900 return to NYC from BNE, SYD & MEL & $990 return to Europe from PER & a $100 more from east coast.


If Labor gets in, watch a few more domestic airlines shrink & international airlines pull out of Australia (not politics, just business has no confidence in Labor to control spending/fix economy)


Really interesting part will be who will control the senate ?


ALA ?


That new seniors party ? Who ?

Last edited by XPT; 21st Apr 2016 at 01:59.
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Old 21st Apr 2016, 04:48
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In case you haven't noticed. The world isn't exactly kicking goals!

Bzbzbzbzbzbzbzbzb
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Old 21st Apr 2016, 07:26
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Things are a bit slower...

QF is choosing to grow a little slow - 0.5% rather than 2%

Reality is the larger part of QF hasn't done much new aircraft growth for a while
Last 737 - Nov 2014
Last 330 - Dec 2012 (granted planes back from JQ up to Sep 2015)
Last 380 - Dec 2011
Only some second hand 717s
Mainline fleet age must be creeping up again with no replacements - and the only thing on the horizon is 8 787s in 15+ months

Increasing the seatcout on 67 737s by 6 seats will help
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Old 21st Apr 2016, 08:02
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XPT is right with Para 3)
Any time an election is announced in Oz lots of people immediately stop having holidays, even weekends away (ask any B&B owner) or spending on big ticket items.
Ask those same people if they intend to resume their spending ways if the Libs get in and they say yes. What if labor gets in, yes again.
There's no figuring it out, just how it's been for years.
So, get some cheap seats now and avoid the rush on 3rd July.
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Old 21st Apr 2016, 08:37
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Originally Posted by Guglielmo View Post
XPT is right with Para 3)
Any time an election is announced in Oz lots of people immediately stop having holidays, even weekends away (ask any B&B owner) or spending on big ticket items.
Ask those same people if they intend to resume their spending ways if the Libs get in and they say yes. What if labor gets in, yes again.
There's no figuring it out, just how it's been for years.
So, get some cheap seats now and avoid the rush on 3rd July.
plenty of cheap seats everywhere, except school holidays of course.


Can't agree ... if Labor some how gets in, it will be batten down the hatches & hold on for a very rough ride. That said whoever gets in MUST control the senate. We can't have the idiot Greens & other corss benches deciding what gets done.


Off topic a little but Chukkas Qld govt is trying to ban Uber. Good luck with that.
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Old 21st Apr 2016, 08:59
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Australia is broke, the govts that is.
As you can see here compared to other countries our debt and defecit isn't all that high, and in a time of low to negative growth, such as we have experienced since 2008, it is hard, and arguably detrimental to the economy, to avoid such a circumstance.

but taxes must go up, spending must go down, especially on overgenerous welfare
According to the Treasury we are one of the lowest taxing nations in the OECD and we have the most targeted welfare systems. This means we are getting the money to the people who need it most.

Can't agree ... if Labor some how gets in, it will be batten down the hatches & hold on for a very rough ride.
Unlike the ridiculous handling of the economy that is going on now hey?

Really interesting part will be who will control the senate ? ALA ? That new seniors party ? Who ?
Oh this explains everything, you are a racist boomer. I will enjoy when your head implodes when we have an ALP government and a senate controlled by the Greens, Xenephon and other cross benchers and everything is fine.
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Old 21st Apr 2016, 09:23
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The perfect balanced sample:

Soros Says China's Debt-Fueled Growth Echoes U.S. in 2007-08 - Bloomberg

The 54% Rally in Steel Prices That Points to China's Rapid Shift - Bloomberg

And on the Australian debt front - How did that school hall, NBN and $800 handout fiasco work out? Enjoying the $250m weekly interest payment? Anyone worried about illicit taxation of Super?

AJ's fine though - no need to worry there. Or about Board members or the QF incompetents that Group Think themselves into being genii for having such great and hard won remuneration packages.
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