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Australian pilots can work for US regionals.

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Old 7th Mar 2020, 17:38
  #1321 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by plotplot
Ended up receiving paperwork for E3 visa from XJT, so not BS that they were waiting for it from their legal department after all.. have to say I am having second thoughts about leaving a secure job with the current effect that this virus is having on the industry. Or I should say the current effect the media is having on the industry due to the virus. United cancelled a class of 23 new hires with 3 days notice last week. Interesting times ahead.
I am in the same boat as you, anyone with any advice on the current climate at the regionals as a result?
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Old 7th Mar 2020, 20:23
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The reduction in US domestic flying as of now is small. Most regionals still need bodies to cover even a reduced schedule.

United mainline is a bit more exposed to Asia than the other legacies. The cancellation of the class was low move not mimicked by the other two.

Expressjet has a lot of ex Trans States planes to crew. They wont be put off by something that will fade away once the northern hemisphere temperature rises (hopefully).
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Old 8th Mar 2020, 08:28
  #1323 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Climb150
The reduction in US domestic flying as of now is small. Most regionals still need bodies to cover even a reduced schedule.

United mainline is a bit more exposed to Asia than the other legacies. The cancellation of the class was low move not mimicked by the other two.

Expressjet has a lot of ex Trans States planes to crew. They wont be put off by something that will fade away once the northern hemisphere temperature rises (hopefully).
A bit overly optimistic, especially the temperature bit. This is, in all probability, not going to be over quickly. North America is not China and you can’t simply lock down and quarantine whole cities. Now that it’s here, it’ll spread like wildfire. Whether it kills in any large numbers is unlikely but the public are panicked.

United isn’t just “a bit more exposed”, it’s hugely exposed; 45% of revenue comes from intl traffic and loads are down 75% across the Pacific. We’ve just announced 700 “take a month off and get paid 50 hours” lines. Mostly 777 and 737. If this sh!t drags on, I’d wager that’s the initial number of furloughs and upcoming retirements won’t make much of a difference.

Also, remember the amount of airframes express can operate is dictated by the amount of main line airframes. UAL starts parking planes and it’ll all start rolling downhill.

Hope I’m wrong but after 20 years in this industry, reality tends to take precedence over optimism.

Last edited by Kenny; 8th Mar 2020 at 08:40.
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Old 8th Mar 2020, 12:22
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Originally Posted by Kenny

Also, remember the amount of airframes express can operate is dictated by the amount of main line airframes. UAL starts parking planes and it’ll all start rolling downhill.
Can you elaborate on this. I read something about this in one of the United threads about how XJT can only operate up to X% of united fleet size, but the validity of that was also refuted. Do you have exact facts and figures?
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Old 8th Mar 2020, 14:04
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Kenny,

Pacific routes are less than 10% of Uniteds Intl routes. I just checked loads to some Euro destinations and while lower than normal the aircraft are far from Empty. South America makes up a huge chunck of international traffic too.

Cases are 444 in the USA at the moment. A pandemic it isnt in the USA. People get panicked by the media telling them they may die. Comments like yours fuel this panic with "its going to be bad for a long time".

When Spanish Flu came through my country in 1919, 5 million people were infected over 9 months. The death rate was 0.008%. With modern medicine we have now that rate would have been considerably less.

On Kenny's advice I am off to buy toilet paper.
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Old 8th Mar 2020, 14:32
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Originally Posted by plotplot
Can you elaborate on this. I read something about this in one of the United threads about how XJT can only operate up to X% of united fleet size, but the validity of that was also refuted. Do you have exact facts and figures?
I’d have to look at the contract to give you exact figures but there is a scope clause that limits express airframes based on the number of main line airframes. From memory, the number of 70 seaters are more restricted than the 50’s but still limited nonetheless. I’m away at the moment and jet lagged so I’ll dig up the clause when I get home.

Originally Posted by Climb150
Kenny,

Pacific routes are less than 10% of Uniteds Intl routes. I just checked loads to some Euro destinations and while lower than normal the aircraft are far from Empty. South America makes up a huge chunck of international traffic too.

Cases are 444 in the USA at the moment. A pandemic it isnt in the USA. People get panicked by the media telling them they may die. Comments like yours fuel this panic with "its going to be bad for a long time".

When Spanish Flu came through my country in 1919, 5 million people were infected over 9 months. The death rate was 0.008%. With modern medicine we have now that rate would have been considerably less.

On Kenny's advice I am off to buy toilet paper.
10% is not the figure we’ve been quoted in internal emails and I can tell you from personal experience, most of the intl expansion of the past 5 years has been China and Asia. But this isn’t confined to Asia anymore, is it? Intl. loads are down across the board.

I didn’t say it was a pandemic in the US but what I did say is that it will probably spread quickly. Just spend a day at work, and take notice of how much you touch that’s been touched by others. It’ll be almost impossible not to be infected. Also, given just how quickly people have developed a siege mentality and stripped the shelves bare of toilet paper, it’s not unreasonable to say the effects of this, may last a while. If you feel my comments are those of someone who is both panicked and part of the tinfoil hat brigade, you’re wrong.

Oh and “my country” is the same one I’ve held a passport for and been a citizen of, for almost 50 years, mate. If you’re talking about Australia.
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Old 8th Mar 2020, 15:03
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I didnt say Australia because as soon as countries are mentioned in pprune it seems to turn into a "my country is better than yours" contest.

I am simply trying to voice an alternative/opposite view. I try to do this to stimulate debate. I am sure you have information I am not privvy too and maybe vice versa.

Many airlines around the world have cut schedules and asked people to go on leave. I dont recall any of these saying they would be filing for bankruptcy any time soon because of it.
Most will probably use it as leverage to get concessions in labour contracts. Thats just my opinion based on history.

Something that has happened which may be a blessing in disguise is the Dow going down. It was rather overheated and a correction was probably needed.

Lets see what happens.
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Old 8th Mar 2020, 20:05
  #1328 (permalink)  
 
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Dear God, why do I bother using words like may, if or probably, when people don’t actually read what’s written. I should have just used bullet points for the mental midgets amongst us.

Originally Posted by Climb150
I am simply trying to voice an alternative/opposite view. I try to do this to stimulate debate. I am sure you have information I am not privvy too and maybe vice versa.

Many airlines around the world have cut schedules and asked people to go on leave. I dont recall any of these saying they would be filing for bankruptcy any time soon because of it.
No you didn't simply voice an alternative view, you made it seem like you knew exact facts and figures when they were patently incorrect and you didn’t. Oh and BTW, saying you ”do this to stimulate debate” is simply a forum friendly way of saying you like to stir the sh!t, which we all know is a pastime Australians are well versed in.

Also, at no point in my post did I say bankruptcy’s were either being mentioned or on the horizon. What I did say, was that IF (Its a two letter word, one syllable and unambiguous in understanding). If this drags on, there was a chance the initial number of any furloughs would probably start at 700. It’s my personal opinion but if UAL wasn’t prepared to have an extra 35 pilots start class, how long do you think they’re going to pay 700 pilots to do nothing and accrue 16% 401k payments and medical benefits, in addition to 50 hours of pay each month?

It’s easy to look up seats available on a web site but I fly the aircraft that make a huge chunk of money for UAL, in the other direction across the Atlantic and not only have I seen the loads starting to get lighter but my bid packet for next month looks like someone has taken a pair of scissors to it. So again, whether rightly or wrongly, the travelling public are panicked and deciding not to fly. That is simply not good for any of us and hopefully does not continue for long.





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Old 8th Mar 2020, 20:51
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Originally Posted by bafanguy
VH,

Not thread drift at all but rather germane to the topic.

Here's my question: Assuming you're not at a US regional now (and have moved on hopefully upwards), do you feel your regional time was a significant factor in your being able to move on to bigger & better ?
Yes, without a doubt. Only after having jet time on my CV did I start receiving responses to job applications back in Australia.

My ERJ 170/190 type rating was also useful as I transferred it to my Australian license and I’m now flying the same type back in Australia but on the longer E190 version.

I’m very happy where I am flying back in Australia, earning a good deal more for much less stick hours a month, and I don’t have to worry about E3 visa renewals anymore. This was always the plan when I went and did the E3 thing in the USA 4 years ago.
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Old 9th Mar 2020, 00:05
  #1330 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Kenny

If this drags on, there was a chance the initial number of any furloughs would probably start at 700. It’s my personal opinion but if UAL wasn’t prepared to have an extra 35 pilots start class, how long do you think they’re going to pay 700 pilots to do nothing and accrue 16% 401k payments and medical benefits, in addition to 50 hours of pay each month?
My guess would be quite a long time, given how long this would need to drag out for to make furloughs cost effective. Stole this excerpt from another forum that came from mgmt;

Since the Company announced the current reduction in flying due to the corona virus, we've received many questions regarding furloughs. Currently, the short-term reduction in flying is causing multiple categories to be overstaffed. The Company has many contractual tools available to mitigate short term overstaffing situations including additional monthly vacation awards, COLAs, surplus reduction lines, lower LPA (line production averages), vacancy cancellations, etc.

Does this mean the Company is planning a furlough? No, and the Company is being aggressive to prevent them.

For furloughs to occur, the Company must consider the high cost of the contract implications listed below and the amount of time it takes to displace and re-train pilots down through the system to eventually furlough from the bottom of the list. The same process applies when recalling- they must slowly bid and re-train all those pilots back up the ladder. This process is difficult by design and is an extremely expensive and cumbersome process that the Company does not undertake lightly. The Company would need to project that this overstaffing situation would last a significant period of time for a furlough to be seriously considered. Otherwise, it's cheaper and more efficient to carry the extra pilots than it is to go through the expense of furlough and recall.

In addition to the high cost of displacement, we have many items in our contract that discourage the Company from furloughing pilots.


Furloughs are surely a long way off given the high yearly rate of attrition as well. That said you could be right Kenny and i wouldn't discredit anything at this point

We can argue and speculate all day long but the fact is this is too new for anyone to have any idea how it's going to play out. All I care about is how this is going to affect my potential path moving forward with a regional, or whether it's best to let this play out first.

Kenny, would kind of effect do you think would furloughs at mainline have on the regionals, keeping in mind that XJT won't have any 70 seaters that you said were more significant in the scope clause?
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Old 9th Mar 2020, 00:51
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Originally Posted by plotplot
My guess would be quite a long time, given how long this would need to drag out for to make furloughs cost effective. Stole this excerpt from another forum that came from mgmt;

Since the Company announced the current reduction in flying due to the corona virus, we've received many questions regarding furloughs. Currently, the short-term reduction in flying is causing multiple categories to be overstaffed. The Company has many contractual tools available to mitigate short term overstaffing situations including additional monthly vacation awards, COLAs, surplus reduction lines, lower LPA (line production averages), vacancy cancellations, etc.

Does this mean the Company is planning a furlough? No, and the Company is being aggressive to prevent them.

For furloughs to occur, the Company must consider the high cost of the contract implications listed below and the amount of time it takes to displace and re-train pilots down through the system to eventually furlough from the bottom of the list. The same process applies when recalling- they must slowly bid and re-train all those pilots back up the ladder. This process is difficult by design and is an extremely expensive and cumbersome process that the Company does not undertake lightly. The Company would need to project that this overstaffing situation would last a significant period of time for a furlough to be seriously considered. Otherwise, it's cheaper and more efficient to carry the extra pilots than it is to go through the expense of furlough and recall.

In addition to the high cost of displacement, we have many items in our contract that discourage the Company from furloughing pilots.


Furloughs are surely a long way off given the high yearly rate of attrition as well. That said you could be right Kenny and i wouldn't discredit anything at this point

We can argue and speculate all day long but the fact is this is too new for anyone to have any idea how it's going to play out. All I care about is how this is going to affect my potential path moving forward with a regional, or whether it's best to let this play out first.

Kenny, would kind of effect do you think would furloughs at mainline have on the regionals, keeping in mind that XJT won't have any 70 seaters that you said were more significant in the scope clause?
The answer is no one really no one knows, but you can’t ignore the mandatory retirement numbers this decade.

There May be a slowdown in hiring for the corona virus speed bump, but with the mandatory retirement numbers you’re not going to see a lost decade like post 9/11. That’s even if flying shrinks significantly which is doubtful.

Keep in mind I’m also the eternal pessimist and I can’t really see doom and gloom in what’s happening given retirement numbers.
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Old 9th Mar 2020, 01:53
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Alright people, let me try this again. In no way did I say or do I think furloughs are a given at this point in time. However, IF this mess drags on, what I think is that we’d probably see a number around 700. After 9/11 10% were furloughed initially and then another 10% when the guppies were parked. We currently have just over 13000 pilots with 400 retirements this year. 700+400 is less than 10% of the current group.

Now it’s a very different place that UAL exists in and the industry as a whole and UAL’s balance sheet is light years healthier than it was 20 years ago, when they were bleeding $1 million a day. But even though we have no idea where we’ll be in a month let alone 12, no company will continue to pay an employee group to simply sit at home. And that is all I was saying.

As to how long UAL would envisage a number of pilots being surplus to requirement, before a furlough becomes necessary, it’s about 12 months. That’s what I’ve been told from the guys I fly with who’ve been here over 30 years. Any less time and the cost associated with displacements and the subsequent re-training, simply don’t make sense. However, as far as the above email is concerned, yes that’s what the company has told us regarding furloughs but if you’ve been here any length of time, you’ll know that they have in the past hired right up until they’ve furloughed. So I take that with a grain of salt.

So what will happen with express, couldn’t tell you. You and I will know when it happens. The number of 70 seaters is maxed out. Hence the CRJ550’s. Oil is at a low, which means the 50 seaters are more cost effective but UAL is cancelling flights. The first leg of my trip back to Oz next month, to IAH has already been cancelled so it’s already happening.

I’ve been in your shoes and furloughed to boot and it was sh!t sand which of biblical proportions. I wouldn’t wish it on anyone. Let’s all hope it does die out with the warm weather and the tin hat brigade can come out of their bunkers.

I will leave you all to the E3 discussion, while I teach my kid that Vegemite is God’s creation.

Last edited by Kenny; 9th Mar 2020 at 02:12.
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Old 9th Mar 2020, 02:02
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Originally Posted by DropYourSocks
PPSS,


Now I hope you come over and join the hundreds of successful Aussies working throughout the US. Just be aware that there are more than a handful that have been sent packing because they couldn't drop some of the more asinine Australian attitudes towards flying.


Socks
Sucks to hear that Aussies have been sent home for ego reasons. Most of us come here pretty humble, having never touched a jet before and grateful for the opportunity.
Some select few have already had a lasting negative impact on future E3 prospects with some regionals.

Hopefully these jokers don't ruin one of the best opportunities Aussie pilots have had in a very long time.

I personally wouldn't let corona virus slow down any application and decision to move over here, but that is just an opinion, and I'm no virus expert, unlike everyone else in the media and on the internet.
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Old 9th Mar 2020, 02:48
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Originally Posted by Kenny
Alright people, let me try this again. In no way did I say or do I think furloughs are a given at this point in time. However, IF this mess drags on, what I think is that we’d probably see a number around 700. After 9/11 10% were furloughed initially and then another 10% when the guppies were parked. We currently have just over 13000 pilots with 400 retirements this year. 700+400 is less than 10% of the current group.

Now it’s a very different place that UAL exists in and the industry as a whole and UAL’s balance sheet is light years healthier than it was 20 years ago, when they were bleeding $1 million a day. But even though we have no idea where we’ll be in a month let alone 12, no company will continue to pay an employee group to simply sit at home. And that is all I was saying.

As to how long UAL would envisage a number of pilots being surplus to requirement, before a furlough becomes necessary, it’s about 12 months. That’s what I’ve been told from the guys I fly with who’ve been here over 30 years. Any less time and the cost associated with displacements and the subsequent re-training, simply don’t make sense. However, as far as the above email is concerned, yes that’s what the company has told us regarding furloughs but if you’ve been here any length of time, you’ll know that they have in the past hired right up until they’ve furloughed. So I take that with a grain of salt.

So what will happen with express, couldn’t tell you. You and I will know when it happens. The number of 70 seaters is maxed out. Hence the CRJ550’s. Oil is at a low, which means the 50 seaters are more cost effective but UAL is cancelling flights. The first leg of my trip back to Oz next month, to IAH has already been cancelled so it’s already happening.

I’ve been in your shoes and furloughed to boot and it was sh!t sand which of biblical proportions. I wouldn’t wish it on anyone. Let’s all hope it does die out with the warm weather and the tin hat brigade can come out of their bunkers.

I will leave you all to the E3 discussion, while I teach my kid that Vegemite is God’s creation.
You’re thinking only UAL, so many other carriers have massive mandatory retirements. That ripples effect goes a long way other than just UAL.
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Old 9th Mar 2020, 03:13
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Yep, of course I am. This line of conversation arose because of comments about UAL. Can’t tell you about the others as I have no idea but I would doubt that what happens to UAL because of market conditions, wouldn’t in some part happen at the other Airlines. How much is that Southwest has already said they’re going to lose...$300-400 million.

And as if the hysteria wasn’t bad enough the CDC has just issued a statement telling Americans to avoid airline travel. That is not a good development.
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Old 9th Mar 2020, 07:43
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Originally Posted by Kenny
Yep, of course I am. This line of conversation arose because of comments about UAL. Can’t tell you about the others as I have no idea but I would doubt that what happens to UAL because of market conditions, wouldn’t in some part happen at the other Airlines. How much is that Southwest has already said they’re going to lose...$300-400 million.

And as if the hysteria wasn’t bad enough the CDC has just issued a statement telling Americans to avoid airline travel. That is not a good development.
I was just in Vegas yesterday and it was amazingly quiet for a weekend. This reality of companies cancelling/embargoing travel plus cancelling conventions is troubling. My airline has 25% of their business in Asia and way less retirements than the legacies so we are pretty much waiting for furlough announcement if this drags on into late summer/spring.
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Old 9th Mar 2020, 07:44
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Originally Posted by VH DSJ
Yes, without a doubt. Only after having jet time on my CV did I start receiving responses to job applications back in Australia.

My ERJ 170/190 type rating was also useful as I transferred it to my Australian license and I’m now flying the same type back in Australia but on the longer E190 version.

I’m very happy where I am flying back in Australia, earning a good deal more for much less stick hours a month, and I don’t have to worry about E3 visa renewals anymore. This was always the plan when I went and did the E3 thing in the USA 4 years ago.
VH,

Glad it worked out for you. Just to round out the story for your fellow Aussies, in general terms, how difficult was it to get your FAA type rating added to your Australian license ?
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Old 9th Mar 2020, 08:00
  #1338 (permalink)  
 
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Like many others, I've transferred a few ratings from FAA to CASA and it was very straightforward. One just has to make sure the paperwork is completed properly and the payment, of course, is made.
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Old 9th Mar 2020, 09:19
  #1339 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Kenny
And as if the hysteria wasn’t bad enough the CDC has just issued a statement telling Americans to avoid airline travel. That is not a good development.
I think that statement is just for long haul travel at the moment, but I’m sure it will be enough to cause more panic domestically anyway.

The time is fast approaching to hang on to your hats lads, I’d be utterly stunned if the furlough monster isn’t about to be set loose. Some of the regionals are really going to be bit very hard... Think twice before bailing on a safe job down under - or anywhere for that matter - to start at the bottom of a seniority list right now, you could find yourself on a plane home and unemployed before you even finish (or maybe even begin) training as this entire situation devolves on a daily basis. Last on first off is the way it usually plays out.

SkyWest is probably one of the few safe ones if you are absolutely determined to make the move during this high instability...I’m not sure if they are taking Aussies or not but if I was going to go anywhere, it would be there. All I’ve ever heard is they have some pretty rock solid contracts on their flying that might reduce any potential furlough numbers. Wholly owned carriers and the ones with too many fingers in one partners pie such as ExpressJet, Endeavour, Horizon etc...would likely be the first to suffer as mainline can slash essentially most of their flying on a whim for a lot cheaper. Contract carriers can lose it too, but it’s harder and more expensive for them to take it away from them since they usually have to pay for the flying of the entire contracts term .

More so, Im not even sure what would happen to E3s, do any of you current E3 folk have any rock solid guarantee your airline won’t just let go of all the Visa guys first rather than furlough US citizens in order of seniority? I’d be getting concerned about that too. And I get people will say “ALPA won’t allow it” and “the policy says they can’t” etc... but I’ve read of plenty of guys being let go under terribly dubious circumstances from ALPA carriers who are still waiting for their cases to be heard 5/6 years later...

Hoping this storm passes quickly! My gig is on the line too, I feel the pain.
Not trying to be a downer, but a wise skipper once told me in an industry downturn a smart pilot will plan for the worst and hope for the best...
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Old 9th Mar 2020, 13:55
  #1340 (permalink)  
 
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With regard to how vulnerable E3s may be to being let go, the only real vulnerability is if your visa is coming up for renewal, the company could simply choose to let it lapse. If you've still got a good amount of time left to run, and you're up your company's list a little way, you're probably as safe as those around you. The other factor is that if you're on an E3 and getting close to upgrade (which a lot are now), your company will more than likely want to keep you, as there is a shortage of captains through a lot of regionals right now.

Despite a reduction in hours for April, we are still hiring FOs for the foreseeable future.
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