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Qantas Fleet Order Speculation

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Qantas Fleet Order Speculation

Old 30th Jul 2015, 11:17
  #561 (permalink)  
 
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What The, I actually agree with what you say, it's just that you stated that the people you talk to are "senior". I hardly think that is a great cross section of the pilot body.

Personally, I don't think any current type should have the PSN. Let it happen "organically" I say.
However, I think I'd be in the minority.
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Old 30th Jul 2015, 11:34
  #562 (permalink)  
 
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"Yeah i support the concept of the squirrel cage... but I'm getting great rosters at the moment/insert excuse here"
That old horse self interest will ride again, unbackable favourite.
Money where you mouth if folks

All ranks bar 380 capt/fo and 400 capt. Dunno about 400fo.

What happens to the bull**** 1:3 interleave on the 330 should it get up there?
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Old 30th Jul 2015, 11:59
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Did I hear correctly, QF has A350-900s arriving in 2018 ?
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Old 30th Jul 2015, 12:55
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Angry

THe interleave cannot change as it is part of the Integration Award and therefore must stay as is. The new contract does not override the Integration Agreement, so if they vote to rotate, Q will rotate with Q and "A" will rotate with "A". The Integration Agreement still exists and cant be changed without agreement from "Q" , "A", and company! Simple as that, like or not.
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Old 30th Jul 2015, 13:12
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Originally Posted by cynphil
THe interleave cannot change as it is part of the Integration Award and therefore must stay as is. The new contract does not override the Integration Agreement, so if they vote to rotate, Q will rotate with Q and "A" will rotate with "A". The Integration Agreement still exists and cant be changed without agreement from "Q" , "A", and company! Simple as that, like or not.
Everything you have written is incorrect. The only reason the "A" pilots rotate is by virtue of the decision handed down by Palmer et al. The Integration Award has no bearing on rostering practices. It just determines who goes onto the aeroplane.
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Old 30th Jul 2015, 15:11
  #566 (permalink)  
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Exclamation

I tried to find the Palmer decision on AIPA website but i couldn't find it.

IIRC, the premise is that A pilots are to have 'fair share' rostering. Palmer did this by having the A pilots PSNing amongst themselves. Were the A330 pilots to vote for PSN then that satisfies the requirement of Palmer's decision and thus instead of interleaving between themselves they'd instead rotate with the entire cohort.

Where it gets interesting is if the A330 pilots as a whole reject PSN. Does this then bind the A list pilots too? They were part of the vote and could potentially have vote 'no' if they only wanted to share amongst themselves and didn't want to share with everyone.

I'd have to read Palmer's decision more closely but given I don't have a copy of it.....
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Old 30th Jul 2015, 18:33
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Many have stated they will vote no....Never get is the way of a pilot and a bag of money and rotating at the top sure does that!
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Old 30th Jul 2015, 21:38
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Thumbs up Bring it on

Given that the original AIPA A330 contract working group in 2004 recommended to COM that ALL A330 pilots squirrelcage, there has been a depth of feeling there for quite a while!
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Old 30th Jul 2015, 23:27
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Palmer just determined the interleave of "A" pilots and said that they could have a ballot amongst themselves as to the issue of squirrel caging.

Where it gets interesting is if the A330 pilots as a whole reject PSN. Does this then bind the A list pilots too? They were part of the vote and could potentially have vote 'no' if they only wanted to share amongst themselves and didn't want to share with everyone.
Keg, hit the nail on the head. The "A" pilots could effectively kill their squirrel caging arrangement by voting no to rotating seniority this time around as there is no mechanism in the EBA that currently allows them to do what they are doing. Interesting times ahead.
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Old 30th Jul 2015, 23:33
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Many have stated they will vote no....Never get is the way of a pilot and a bag of money and rotating at the top sure does that!
Its a zero sum game. For every "winner", there is an equal an opposite "loser" under the current system. It's a question of distribution.

The only wrinkle to this equation if someone sees themselves as potentially becoming a winner at some point in the future.

Given there is almost zero chance of any fleet expansion on the A380/B747 in the lifetime of the universe, the considerations are their age, position on the seniority list and the age of those above them. Retirements are the only hope of movement up the list.

Those that figure they have time to become a winner will probably vote no (younger & more senior) , those don't (older junior) will likely vote yes to rotating seniority.
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Old 30th Jul 2015, 23:45
  #571 (permalink)  
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SWH,


I've been hearing the same around the traps, A350-900s until the 1100 is available.


Does the agreement allow for multiple new fleet types or just the 787?
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Old 31st Jul 2015, 00:24
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Are QF under any obligation to take delivery of the remaining 8 A380's as they were ordered after the initial 12, heard a swap for A350's is on the cards.

About Qantas | News Room | Media Releases | Qantas Orders Additional A380 Aircraft
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Old 31st Jul 2015, 01:11
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Are QF under any obligation to take delivery of the remaining 8 A380's as they were ordered after the initial 12, heard a swap for A350's is on the cards.
Qantas are quite adept at playing the divide & conqueror strategy. Given there are only two aircraft manufacturers, realistically, the only way to drive the best bargain is to maximise the threat of buying the oppositions product.

Could the very public QF B787 campaign actually be a smokescreen to get airbus to really sharpen its pencil on the A350? What better way to do it, get the pilots do it for them. There has been surprising little secrecy around the B787 since the beginning of the year. Given the extensive planning for the carbon free day, they have demonstrated they have the ability to manoeuvre in the shadows. its much easier to keep aircraft purchase negotiations secret. Is the best route to the A350 via the B787?

We are told what they want us to be told, for what motivation is the question? Is this a sophisticated bait-and-switch strategy? All we can do is speculate & marvel at their magnificence [/S]. Only a handful of people know the truth.
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Old 31st Jul 2015, 01:34
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There's a bit of talk on Anoraks.net about SQ being 'asked' to cancel 7 A350's at Airbus request.

SIA Cuts A350 Orders From 70 To 63 Airbus' Request — Civil Aviation Forum | Airliners.net
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Old 31st Jul 2015, 03:27
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Yeah I'd heard the 350 'wasnt out of the running'
Who knows
As opposed to the 777x i guess. Bring it on
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Old 31st Jul 2015, 13:09
  #576 (permalink)  
 
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787's to replace the A333's on intl routes
A350's to replace A332's on domestic runs to compete against virgin.
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Old 31st Jul 2015, 23:48
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I'd say there is about a 0% chance of getting A350's in the near term.

The newly agreed EBA clearly refers to terms and conditions for the 787. Not a "new type" or an A350. The conditions for the existing types (A380/744/A330) have barely changed at all. If the 787 is not ordered then Qantas will have completely missed their opportunity to fix what they saw as a bloated, inefficient contract, for the next 4 and a half years.

If A350's were ordered they would have to re-negotiate with pilots they have outright lied to for the last 6 months which would make it very hard to replicate the same concessions they achieved with the 787 terms. Or it would come in as a "replacement type" for the A330 with all the terms applicable to the A330. That would be a massive win for the pilots and a huge tactical blunder for Qantas.

As such, I think a modest order of 787's this year and a rolling increase each year as the options come up for activation, as the most likely scenario.
Fingers crossed, the 777-9 might even get a look-in towards 2020 if International is still in profit and the remaining jumbos need replacing.
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Old 1st Aug 2015, 01:37
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I'd say there is about a 0% chance of getting A350's in the near term.
Hmmm, I don't think I'd say 0%.

Your comment does make a lot of sense, however, the A350 rumour is coming from more than one source, more than just Prune, and from more than just QF sources. (even a Travel Newsletter has picked up on it… reliability wise, take that as you will)

I wouldn't see Qantas as needing the A350 for at least 5 years, give or take. So the A350 can be ordered now-ish (just options and purchase rights again, like the current 787 arrangement), and then Qantas can renegotiate terms for the NEXT EA, base on another new aircraft type. The 787 carrot worked extremely well for them this time. They got some significant efficiency improvements into one of their most expensive and complex agreements and we potentially ended up with a bit more of a future, with 82% of us pretty happy with the outcome. Bring ANOTHER A/C type to the next negotiation and you can leave Oldmeadow at home again (more savings!), and have some cordial negotiations for more of the same.

From the Airbus perspective, Unlike the 787, the A350 IS able to pretty much directly replace the 747 in its larger form (1000), and development of the 900 version into an LR form will, for the first time ever, give Qantas SYD/MEL/BNE to LHR direct. I believe it also has a potential for 400 minute ETOPS!!

Airbus would surely love to get in early and head off any potential 777 order by getting QF locked into a future with A350's in various forms (900/900R/1000/1100), to replace the upper end other their fleet with large efficient twin fleet that can do many different jobs in its few potentially different guises. It may also get the remaining A380 orders off of QF's books which by all accounts is a desired outcome…

In any case, the interesting times will continue.
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Old 1st Aug 2015, 02:20
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Yep, fair point ExtraShot, the A350 could well be a potent competitor to the 777 for replacing the jumbos down the track. My "0%" comment was only in regards to the next few years and specifically any announcement this month.
With the -1000 not flying yet and an LR version of the -900 not yet publicly announced, I feel such an order is probably a few years off.

Your comment about wanting to get the remaining A380 orders off the books with a swap to another Airbus type is right on the money from what I hear. The same could probably be said for a few dozen A320 orders made in haste when Asia looked to be an easy market for JQ to spread into.
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Old 1st Aug 2015, 02:40
  #580 (permalink)  
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Yeah I'd heard the 350 'wasnt out of the running'
Maybe medium to long term but not in the time frame the 787 is being considered. There are many people working on 787 introduction already in terms of galleys, training paths, engineering, etc. There is no one looking at introducing an A350 for the same specific things.

Beyond 2020 though? That's where it gets interesting.

However in terms of a 744 replacement, it's helpful to remember this info posted by rjtjrt all the way back on page 11.
777-300ER---7,825nmi – PAX 386 in 3 class config
777-200LR---8,625nmi – PAX 314 in 3 class config
777-200ER---7,510nmi – PAX 314 in 3 class config
777-8X ------9,300nmi – PAX 350
777-9X------ 8,200nmi – PAX 400

787-8---------7,850nmi – PAX 242 in 3 class config
787-9---------8,300nmi – PAX 280 in 3 class config
787-10--------7,020nmi – PAX 323 in 3 class config


A330-200-----7,300nmi – PAX 247 in 3 class config
A330-300---- 6,300nmi – PAX 277 in 3 class config

A350-800-----8,200nmi – PAX 280 in 3 class config
A350-900-----7,600nmi – PAX 322 in 3 class config
A350-1000----7,900nmi – PAX 366 in 3 class config

By Range
777-8X-------9,300nmi – PAX 350
777-200LR---8,625nmi – PAX 314 in 3 class config
787-9--------8,300nmi – PAX 280 in 3 class config
777-9X-------8,200nmi – PAX 400
A350-800----8,200nmi – PAX 280 in 3 class config
A350-1000---7,900nmi – PAX 366 in 3 class config
787-8---------7,850nmi – PAX 242 in 3 class config
777-300ER---7,825nmi – PAX 386 in 3 class config
A350-900-----7,600nmi – PAX 322 in 3 class config
777-200ER----7,510nmi – PAX 314 in 3 class config
A330-200------7,300nmi – PAX 247 in 3 class config
787-10---------7,020nmi – PAX 323 in 3 class config
A330-300-------6,300nmi – PAX 277 in 3 class config
The A350 doesn't seem to fit the metrics that Qantas is after. The 777X (particularly the 8X) does though.

SYD- JFK 8646 nm
SYD- SCL 6135 nm
SYD- LHR 9188 nm
SYD- DXB 6500 nm
SYD- FRA 8906 nm
MEL- DFW 7814 nm
MEL- YVR 7118 nm
MEL- ORD 8397 nm
MEL- JFK 9015 nm
MEL- LHR 9127 nm
BNE- DFW 7216 nm
BNE- YVR 6388 nm
BNE- JFK 8374 nm

I'm not sure the A350 has a place in that route structure if you've already bought the 787-9. My predictions is that the A380 will be off DFW before 2020 and the 787 will be doing it either twice daily out of Sydney or one each from Sydney and Melbourne. Maybe even 777X out of Sydney and 787 ex MEL.
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