Qantas Fleet Order Speculation
Fearcampaign
The annual profit for the QANTAS GROUP this year may be in the Billion Dollar vicinity. However, how much of that will be attributed to QANTAS International?
The annual profit for the QANTAS GROUP this year may be in the Billion Dollar vicinity. However, how much of that will be attributed to QANTAS International?
So what you are saying fear campaign is LH pilots should be more efficient and you detest a 'B' scale? Does that mean that ALL LH pilots should work under the same agreement as what's proposed for the 787? That sounds reasonable to me. 👍
fearcampaign wrote :
"The 5% pay premium is an issue for the A380 and I'm confident Pilots could sacrifice from the A380/747 to get the 787 within the LH award"
So let me get this straight. You honestly believe that a group of pilots (any group of pilots) would sacrifice their current conditions for a potential gain if a new type shows up? Moreover, you are saying that that particular group of pilots would do that?
Seriously?! Have a think about that.
"The 5% pay premium is an issue for the A380 and I'm confident Pilots could sacrifice from the A380/747 to get the 787 within the LH award"
So let me get this straight. You honestly believe that a group of pilots (any group of pilots) would sacrifice their current conditions for a potential gain if a new type shows up? Moreover, you are saying that that particular group of pilots would do that?
Seriously?! Have a think about that.
As a much wiser head told me once, you are not negotiating from a position of strength when trying to get a new aircraft type, however next ea, when the aircraft is introduced, you are endorsed and the aeroplane is flying revenue service, that's when you are negotiating from a position of strength! If the offered conditions are reasonable the grab it with both hands, worry about the minor details later.
Look at the shorthaul award, in the aftermath of '89 there was no pay for sims, no paxing credit, essentially no pay for calling in sick as well as a number of other conditions that would today be considered harsh. Fast forward a few Eba's/ea's and you have an agreement that is not perfect but results in probably the highest paid 737 pilots in the world with a good lifestyle balance. Get yourself in the aeroplane, the rest will follow.
Look at the shorthaul award, in the aftermath of '89 there was no pay for sims, no paxing credit, essentially no pay for calling in sick as well as a number of other conditions that would today be considered harsh. Fast forward a few Eba's/ea's and you have an agreement that is not perfect but results in probably the highest paid 737 pilots in the world with a good lifestyle balance. Get yourself in the aeroplane, the rest will follow.
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Semantics
Fearcampaign said:
"Interesting that you have cherry picked the first half results which showed almost none of the fuel price drop that will be at least 500 million in the full year results."
No actually it's not interesting... it's pretty boring. The same as the rest of the BS figures thrown around here to support the argument that the LH agreement makes no impact on the success of the company I work for, and therefore will not bear any influence on whether QF mainline finally get the order for some new metal.
I was simply making the point that whilst pilots may not cost much as a proportion of fuel, equipment etc... when tallied up against profits or even losses then to me we have a huge bearing on the success of Qantas... That is of course if you accept profitability as a key measure of the success of a company (as apposed to simply what the total costs a company may have)
Most importantly I believe management see it this way too. And further they have proven they are prepared to do what needs to be be done in order to achieve the desired efficiencies. They won't simply cop a premium on their workforce so they can get on with the the new type without rocking the boat or incurring short term expenses such as redundancies. That was proven when they grounded the airline. Whilst painful at the time it is clear they are playing a long term game. And that is a dangerous thing for an arrogant and privileged pilot group. Because they run this company. And they make the decisions.
I do agree with you though. The aircraft will provide the over arching efficiencies... Just not sure management think "some pilot efficiencies would be a bonus too".. They seem more determined then that..
So whilst the decision for new equipment is one thing. The decision as to who crews is another.
So please argue away on the inaccuracies of the numbers ( I think I actually said myself were from thin air). It's all semantics and there's been plenty of that here already so I don't need to add any further.
However....I can't continue to entertain the fantasy that the LH haul WD/EA is efficient or competitive. Nor that the LH WD/EA award has little or no impact on the bottom line. I won't deny the fact any longer that aircraft with the Qantas banner can't be flown unless flown by a Qantas pilot (what is a Qantas pilot anyway?). I will not argue with the fact that management decide where the Capex is spent. I can not pretend that one entity can not be created to undermine another. I won't look to the courts or some other Devine justice to solve my problems.
It's not personal... It's just business. There is no room for ego here.
Mistakes have been made. On many levels on both sides. And opportunities have been missed.
I really hope things will be different this time.
Fearcampaign said:
"Interesting that you have cherry picked the first half results which showed almost none of the fuel price drop that will be at least 500 million in the full year results."
No actually it's not interesting... it's pretty boring. The same as the rest of the BS figures thrown around here to support the argument that the LH agreement makes no impact on the success of the company I work for, and therefore will not bear any influence on whether QF mainline finally get the order for some new metal.
I was simply making the point that whilst pilots may not cost much as a proportion of fuel, equipment etc... when tallied up against profits or even losses then to me we have a huge bearing on the success of Qantas... That is of course if you accept profitability as a key measure of the success of a company (as apposed to simply what the total costs a company may have)
Most importantly I believe management see it this way too. And further they have proven they are prepared to do what needs to be be done in order to achieve the desired efficiencies. They won't simply cop a premium on their workforce so they can get on with the the new type without rocking the boat or incurring short term expenses such as redundancies. That was proven when they grounded the airline. Whilst painful at the time it is clear they are playing a long term game. And that is a dangerous thing for an arrogant and privileged pilot group. Because they run this company. And they make the decisions.
I do agree with you though. The aircraft will provide the over arching efficiencies... Just not sure management think "some pilot efficiencies would be a bonus too".. They seem more determined then that..
So whilst the decision for new equipment is one thing. The decision as to who crews is another.
So please argue away on the inaccuracies of the numbers ( I think I actually said myself were from thin air). It's all semantics and there's been plenty of that here already so I don't need to add any further.
However....I can't continue to entertain the fantasy that the LH haul WD/EA is efficient or competitive. Nor that the LH WD/EA award has little or no impact on the bottom line. I won't deny the fact any longer that aircraft with the Qantas banner can't be flown unless flown by a Qantas pilot (what is a Qantas pilot anyway?). I will not argue with the fact that management decide where the Capex is spent. I can not pretend that one entity can not be created to undermine another. I won't look to the courts or some other Devine justice to solve my problems.
It's not personal... It's just business. There is no room for ego here.
Mistakes have been made. On many levels on both sides. And opportunities have been missed.
I really hope things will be different this time.
Last edited by C207; 2nd Jun 2015 at 13:03.
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Dr Dre,
I agree with you.
Any "new type" conditions will become the majority in short time.
It's only false hope and pilot ego that any new type will provide large fleet growth.
Tino La Spina has just recently confirmed managements zeal for codeshare partners flying routes on behalf of QF and how much passengers love the connections on EK to Europe, LAN to South America, North America with AA etc.
Pilots have been sucked in to believing that the 787 new type EBA will suddenly lead to promotions and growth. You think a bit of overtime sacrificed will suddenly terminate the EK partnership and have QF going back to Europe?
I can understand pilots are desperate for promotions after management failures lead us to big losses, RINs, VR etc.
Perhaps they need to consider the very real possibility that the new type is simply a replacement type.
Accordingly they need to consider if the deal is acceptable if you get RINed in your CURRENT rank as a best case scenario.
I agree with you.
Any "new type" conditions will become the majority in short time.
It's only false hope and pilot ego that any new type will provide large fleet growth.
Tino La Spina has just recently confirmed managements zeal for codeshare partners flying routes on behalf of QF and how much passengers love the connections on EK to Europe, LAN to South America, North America with AA etc.
Pilots have been sucked in to believing that the 787 new type EBA will suddenly lead to promotions and growth. You think a bit of overtime sacrificed will suddenly terminate the EK partnership and have QF going back to Europe?
I can understand pilots are desperate for promotions after management failures lead us to big losses, RINs, VR etc.
Perhaps they need to consider the very real possibility that the new type is simply a replacement type.
Accordingly they need to consider if the deal is acceptable if you get RINed in your CURRENT rank as a best case scenario.
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What does getting zero new planes lead to? 
At $300/hr, replacing all the 330s with 787s would be a fantastic outcome. Replacing some of the 744s has to happen anyway, apart from the 6 ERs and OJS,T,U, they are simply getting too long in the tooth. The number of our competitors (especially out of Asia and across the pacific) still flying 744s is rapidly approaching zero.
At $300/hr, replacing all the 330s with 787s would be a fantastic outcome. Replacing some of the 744s has to happen anyway, apart from the 6 ERs and OJS,T,U, they are simply getting too long in the tooth. The number of our competitors (especially out of Asia and across the pacific) still flying 744s is rapidly approaching zero.
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At $300/hr, replacing all the 330s with 787s would be a fantastic outcome
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Perhaps they need to consider the very real possibility that the new type is simply a replacement type.
Accordingly they need to consider if the deal is acceptable if you get RINed in your CURRENT rank as a best case scenario.
The new type IS a replacement aircraft - only they'll need to start with a small order as some investors will probably grumble at any new jets for the international operation ... don't know many Q pilots that think otherwise - the new pay deal will be the thin edge of the wedge for the mainline Pilot group and people know it. Management are willing to change things with regard to the Pilot contract over the longer term through the introduction of a new type - as that is their only viable option at this point short of going back to war with the workforce and setting up a greenfields pilot group flying red tails - (suspect they could find many joiners for that here on pprune)
Most pilots are now willing to wager some new terms for a new type and that some seed growth will eventually come from the successful deployment of a 787-9 or similar on point to point routes and just maybe one day the 777-8x. Once again no driver who looks at it properly expects the 777 to appear without the business case to allow it to do so. Codeshares and partnerships will remain and most Pilots I know also know this to be the future, some just lament it - of course partnerships need to be commercially advantageous to Qantas in terms of revenue - which the EK deal probably is not
Accordingly they need to consider if the deal is acceptable if you get RINed in your CURRENT rank as a best case scenario.
The new type IS a replacement aircraft - only they'll need to start with a small order as some investors will probably grumble at any new jets for the international operation ... don't know many Q pilots that think otherwise - the new pay deal will be the thin edge of the wedge for the mainline Pilot group and people know it. Management are willing to change things with regard to the Pilot contract over the longer term through the introduction of a new type - as that is their only viable option at this point short of going back to war with the workforce and setting up a greenfields pilot group flying red tails - (suspect they could find many joiners for that here on pprune)
Most pilots are now willing to wager some new terms for a new type and that some seed growth will eventually come from the successful deployment of a 787-9 or similar on point to point routes and just maybe one day the 777-8x. Once again no driver who looks at it properly expects the 777 to appear without the business case to allow it to do so. Codeshares and partnerships will remain and most Pilots I know also know this to be the future, some just lament it - of course partnerships need to be commercially advantageous to Qantas in terms of revenue - which the EK deal probably is not
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Matching A330 income sounds ok to me. I'd like to see the detail before I conclude whether it's "a fantastic outcome" or not. Did anyone actually expect management to agree to A330 black book? I mean seriously.... Qantas Int'l has been crap for years and is barely making a profit with oil at these prices. I know everyone wants to pretend we're all going to get A380 pay and the planes will just keep coming (even though they've be going for a long time now...), but that just ain't gonna happen.
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That's not my point. For an aircraft to be placed above the A330 in the pecking order with the same pay is hardly a win, however I am attuned the industrial realities as much as anyone.
What should be noted is that the SO rate is substantially below the current rate.
What should be noted is that the SO rate is substantially below the current rate.
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What is the current S/O rate? Doesn't it start at about 20% and rise to around 50% by year 12? I heard it crosses over at about year 4 or 5 versus the A330. Sounds about right. I bet it's a truck load better than JQ 787 S/Os at $75k.
I suspect it was ranked above the A330 for political reasons to appease we A330 pilots that want to go there.
I suspect it was ranked above the A330 for political reasons to appease we A330 pilots that want to go there.
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What should be noted is that the SO rate is substantially below the current rate.
The divisors are set lower with a 145 hour min guarantee and a planning divisor of 155. This is by design to match the current remuneration on the A330. So, not really a fantastic outcome.
The B787 S/O pay rate is above A330 S/O rate for the first four years. It is planned that all new hires will go to the B787 as S/O's and it is extremely unlikely that any current S/O's will be forced to go there. If they are, there are protections in the package.
It was interesting to hear who on CoM voted NO yesterday then imagine the different trajectory AIPA might have taken with an alternative President's Leadership.
What a wonderful feeling to finally have some semblance of hope after so long.....
What a wonderful feeling to finally have some semblance of hope after so long.....
Credited Hours still apply. 5.30 per day or stick hours, whichever is higher.
This package restores balance between short/medium range flying and long range flying. There are significant gains for those who end up flying 2 or 3 pilot ops on the B787.