Qantas Fleet Order Speculation
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goodonyamate, I think that may have already started with dragonman since I've just had it confirmed that his statement of "no night credits" is wrong. At $300/hour, surely this pay will be MILES ahead on any sectors up to around 12-13 hours.
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Borg, yes his envelope is very dodgy. The entire wage bill for mainline long haul pilots is about $450m. So unless we are all taking 40-50% pay cuts (a deal that has a snowballs chance in hell!) to "save $200m" then he needs a new envelope.......
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The senior 747 captains would be most affected as that will probably be the first type to go. A lot of them will either RIN/displace on to the A380 or take a package.
Personally I think the 380 will stay for a while and the 330 is slated to be all DOM in 5 years. Both will be bolt holes of sorts. The ADP gravy train will only exist on the 380, but only if it stays on the ULH routes. QF may decide to put it in shorter routes into slot constrained airports like HKG and Haneda.
There is a long way to go in this yet. Pilots as a group don't like wholesale change. This will be interesting to watch.
Personally I think the 380 will stay for a while and the 330 is slated to be all DOM in 5 years. Both will be bolt holes of sorts. The ADP gravy train will only exist on the 380, but only if it stays on the ULH routes. QF may decide to put it in shorter routes into slot constrained airports like HKG and Haneda.
There is a long way to go in this yet. Pilots as a group don't like wholesale change. This will be interesting to watch.
I actually worked my numbers on 2500 pilots in long haul which is where I think we might be in ten years. Secondly what a pilot is paid is not what it costs the company. The rule of thumb in the community is that the cost of employing someone is 40/50% on top of their hourly rate. My own opinion is that 747/380 pilots should have sacrificed today some overtime to make this deal for future pilots better. For those who think I'm just another greedy senior pilot, it won't effect me il be long gone. I would like to see the next generation in Qantas have similar opportunities and life style as I did. I actually feel that I shouldn't vote on it as it won't effect me. Look very hard at this. Change was inevitable. It's your future look at this very very thoroughly. That's it. No more from me on this subject.
Great new for you QF Guys.
All this talk about types and where to fly to got me to look at the Airbus and Boeing sites, for a quick reference here are the types that have been mentioned and according to the makers sites, typical pax numbers in config. Naturally there is no talk about numbers in the premium cabins.
777-300ER---7,825nmi – PAX 386 in 3 class config
777-200LR---8,625nmi – PAX 314 in 3 class config
777-200ER---7,510nmi – PAX 314 in 3 class config
777-8X ------9,300nmi – PAX 350
777-9X------ 8,200nmi – PAX 400
787-8---------7,850nmi – PAX 242 in 3 class config
787-9---------8,300nmi – PAX 280 in 3 class config
787-10--------7,020nmi – PAX 323 in 3 class config
A330-200-----7,300nmi – PAX 247 in 3 class config
A330-300---- 6,300nmi – PAX 277 in 3 class config
A350-800-----8,200nmi – PAX 280 in 3 class config
A350-900-----7,600nmi – PAX 322 in 3 class config
A350-1000----7,900nmi – PAX 366 in 3 class config
By Range
777-8X-------9,300nmi – PAX 350
777-200LR---8,625nmi – PAX 314 in 3 class config
787-9--------8,300nmi – PAX 280 in 3 class config
777-9X-------8,200nmi – PAX 400
A350-800----8,200nmi – PAX 280 in 3 class config
A350-1000---7,900nmi – PAX 366 in 3 class config
787-8---------7,850nmi – PAX 242 in 3 class config
777-300ER---7,825nmi – PAX 386 in 3 class config
A350-900-----7,600nmi – PAX 322 in 3 class config
777-200ER----7,510nmi – PAX 314 in 3 class config
A330-200------7,300nmi – PAX 247 in 3 class config
787-10---------7,020nmi – PAX 323 in 3 class config
A330-300-------6,300nmi – PAX 277 in 3 class config
Perth to:
FCO 8,288
TXL 8,437 (Berlin)
FRA 8,606
Brisbane to:
DFW 8,303
YVR 7,351
Melbourne to:
DFW 8,303
YVR 8,992
Sydney to:
SCL 7,060
SFO 7,417
Some interesting choices based on $$$'s range and load.
All this talk about types and where to fly to got me to look at the Airbus and Boeing sites, for a quick reference here are the types that have been mentioned and according to the makers sites, typical pax numbers in config. Naturally there is no talk about numbers in the premium cabins.
777-300ER---7,825nmi – PAX 386 in 3 class config
777-200LR---8,625nmi – PAX 314 in 3 class config
777-200ER---7,510nmi – PAX 314 in 3 class config
777-8X ------9,300nmi – PAX 350
777-9X------ 8,200nmi – PAX 400
787-8---------7,850nmi – PAX 242 in 3 class config
787-9---------8,300nmi – PAX 280 in 3 class config
787-10--------7,020nmi – PAX 323 in 3 class config
A330-200-----7,300nmi – PAX 247 in 3 class config
A330-300---- 6,300nmi – PAX 277 in 3 class config
A350-800-----8,200nmi – PAX 280 in 3 class config
A350-900-----7,600nmi – PAX 322 in 3 class config
A350-1000----7,900nmi – PAX 366 in 3 class config
By Range
777-8X-------9,300nmi – PAX 350
777-200LR---8,625nmi – PAX 314 in 3 class config
787-9--------8,300nmi – PAX 280 in 3 class config
777-9X-------8,200nmi – PAX 400
A350-800----8,200nmi – PAX 280 in 3 class config
A350-1000---7,900nmi – PAX 366 in 3 class config
787-8---------7,850nmi – PAX 242 in 3 class config
777-300ER---7,825nmi – PAX 386 in 3 class config
A350-900-----7,600nmi – PAX 322 in 3 class config
777-200ER----7,510nmi – PAX 314 in 3 class config
A330-200------7,300nmi – PAX 247 in 3 class config
787-10---------7,020nmi – PAX 323 in 3 class config
A330-300-------6,300nmi – PAX 277 in 3 class config
Perth to:
FCO 8,288
TXL 8,437 (Berlin)
FRA 8,606
Brisbane to:
DFW 8,303
YVR 7,351
Melbourne to:
DFW 8,303
YVR 8,992
Sydney to:
SCL 7,060
SFO 7,417
Some interesting choices based on $$$'s range and load.
Nunc est bibendum
Dragonman, let's presume the $320K amount is correct.
Slightly bigger aeroplane than the 767, earning 15% more (adjusted for scheduled pay rises) for 3-5% additional stick hours. Seems pretty reasonable to me. Add the high density trips and it's looking like a significant lifestyle improvement from the 767 also.
If it's 'reasonable' pay and conditions does that still make it a B scale?
If they closed down the entire A380 and 744 fleets and went to a 787/ 777X on this sort of deal then my envelope reckons the savings are going to be in the vicinity of $60-80 mill. That takes into account the 777X crew earning similar $$$/ASK To the 787 deal. However they'll need more a bigger fleet to carry the same pax so overall crewing numbers will expand. That will mean more crew in each rank who will be paid more than they otherwise would have.
I'm looking forward to seeing the detail.
Slightly bigger aeroplane than the 767, earning 15% more (adjusted for scheduled pay rises) for 3-5% additional stick hours. Seems pretty reasonable to me. Add the high density trips and it's looking like a significant lifestyle improvement from the 767 also.
If it's 'reasonable' pay and conditions does that still make it a B scale?
If they closed down the entire A380 and 744 fleets and went to a 787/ 777X on this sort of deal then my envelope reckons the savings are going to be in the vicinity of $60-80 mill. That takes into account the 777X crew earning similar $$$/ASK To the 787 deal. However they'll need more a bigger fleet to carry the same pax so overall crewing numbers will expand. That will mean more crew in each rank who will be paid more than they otherwise would have.
I'm looking forward to seeing the detail.
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What is the average age of the QF mainline pilot group?
How many retirements are we expecting over the next 5 to 10 years?
Would be a great opportunity to be in the first batch of new hires at QF as promotion may be very quick.
How many retirements are we expecting over the next 5 to 10 years?
Would be a great opportunity to be in the first batch of new hires at QF as promotion may be very quick.
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As I'm sure AIPA COM have seen most of the detail, some leaks must be flowing. Does anybody know how the new SO rate will work? Is it only for 787 SO's or will it be for ALL new SO's. As if it's the former, the day one lottery will be even more farcical.
Last edited by SandyPalms; 29th May 2015 at 00:57. Reason: Wrong way round
Rumour is all new hires would be on the new contract.
Notwithstanding all the excitement there was a friendly reminder from the company's Minitruth this morning that nothing has been decided, no new aeroplanes have been ordered and the EA is one of only several things that may determine if any aeroplanes are ordered and, if so, who flies them. Don't get your panties in a twist yet boys and girls.
Notwithstanding all the excitement there was a friendly reminder from the company's Minitruth this morning that nothing has been decided, no new aeroplanes have been ordered and the EA is one of only several things that may determine if any aeroplanes are ordered and, if so, who flies them. Don't get your panties in a twist yet boys and girls.
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There is a rumour floating that a recent former Chief Pilot has set up a crewing company for the pilots as an alternative. Anyone know anything about this?
Nunc est bibendum
-438. It's 40-50/ year for the next 15. Not sure of 'average age' though. I suspect that it won't be 'quick' promotion for new hires but if they get in young (say under 25) then they'll be senior at the end off heir career for quite some time given the 7-8 year gap since last recruiting.
Tuner2, correct. Not a new contract. 787 conditions are part of EA. Colloquial use of the term 'contract' I suspect is what is causing some confusion.
Directanywhere is correct. We are a SARS, Ebola or Russia invading Ukraine type crisis away from everything changing again. If none of those occur though I reckon we are looking at all 50 options delivered over a 4-5 year period. About 15-20 of those for expansion.
After having seen this range figures for the various types on the previous page my guess is also 777X as a 744 replacement from 2020ish and then a 777X MAX to replace the A380s from mid 2020s.
Tuner2, correct. Not a new contract. 787 conditions are part of EA. Colloquial use of the term 'contract' I suspect is what is causing some confusion.
Directanywhere is correct. We are a SARS, Ebola or Russia invading Ukraine type crisis away from everything changing again. If none of those occur though I reckon we are looking at all 50 options delivered over a 4-5 year period. About 15-20 of those for expansion.
After having seen this range figures for the various types on the previous page my guess is also 777X as a 744 replacement from 2020ish and then a 777X MAX to replace the A380s from mid 2020s.
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Typo in Melbourne to YVR is not 8992nm - it is 8192nm.
Mel-Dfw is 8992nm.
73-92 wrote
"Great new for you QF Guys.
All this talk about types and where to fly to got me to look at the Airbus and Boeing sites, for a quick reference here are the types that have been mentioned and according to the makers sites, typical pax numbers in config. Naturally there is no talk about numbers in the premium cabins.
777-300ER---7,825nmi – PAX 386 in 3 class config
777-200LR---8,625nmi – PAX 314 in 3 class config
777-200ER---7,510nmi – PAX 314 in 3 class config
777-8X ------9,300nmi – PAX 350
777-9X------ 8,200nmi – PAX 400
787-8---------7,850nmi – PAX 242 in 3 class config
787-9---------8,300nmi – PAX 280 in 3 class config
787-10--------7,020nmi – PAX 323 in 3 class config
A330-200-----7,300nmi – PAX 247 in 3 class config
A330-300---- 6,300nmi – PAX 277 in 3 class config
A350-800-----8,200nmi – PAX 280 in 3 class config
A350-900-----7,600nmi – PAX 322 in 3 class config
A350-1000----7,900nmi – PAX 366 in 3 class config
By Range
777-8X-------9,300nmi – PAX 350
777-200LR---8,625nmi – PAX 314 in 3 class config
787-9--------8,300nmi – PAX 280 in 3 class config
777-9X-------8,200nmi – PAX 400
A350-800----8,200nmi – PAX 280 in 3 class config
A350-1000---7,900nmi – PAX 366 in 3 class config
787-8---------7,850nmi – PAX 242 in 3 class config
777-300ER---7,825nmi – PAX 386 in 3 class config
A350-900-----7,600nmi – PAX 322 in 3 class config
777-200ER----7,510nmi – PAX 314 in 3 class config
A330-200------7,300nmi – PAX 247 in 3 class config
787-10---------7,020nmi – PAX 323 in 3 class config
A330-300-------6,300nmi – PAX 277 in 3 class config
Perth to:
FCO 8,288
TXL 8,437 (Berlin)
FRA 8,606
Brisbane to:
DFW 8,303
YVR 7,351
Melbourne to:
DFW 8,303
YVR 8,992
Sydney to:
SCL 7,060
SFO 7,417
Some interesting choices based on $$$'s range and load."
Mel-Dfw is 8992nm.
73-92 wrote
"Great new for you QF Guys.
All this talk about types and where to fly to got me to look at the Airbus and Boeing sites, for a quick reference here are the types that have been mentioned and according to the makers sites, typical pax numbers in config. Naturally there is no talk about numbers in the premium cabins.
777-300ER---7,825nmi – PAX 386 in 3 class config
777-200LR---8,625nmi – PAX 314 in 3 class config
777-200ER---7,510nmi – PAX 314 in 3 class config
777-8X ------9,300nmi – PAX 350
777-9X------ 8,200nmi – PAX 400
787-8---------7,850nmi – PAX 242 in 3 class config
787-9---------8,300nmi – PAX 280 in 3 class config
787-10--------7,020nmi – PAX 323 in 3 class config
A330-200-----7,300nmi – PAX 247 in 3 class config
A330-300---- 6,300nmi – PAX 277 in 3 class config
A350-800-----8,200nmi – PAX 280 in 3 class config
A350-900-----7,600nmi – PAX 322 in 3 class config
A350-1000----7,900nmi – PAX 366 in 3 class config
By Range
777-8X-------9,300nmi – PAX 350
777-200LR---8,625nmi – PAX 314 in 3 class config
787-9--------8,300nmi – PAX 280 in 3 class config
777-9X-------8,200nmi – PAX 400
A350-800----8,200nmi – PAX 280 in 3 class config
A350-1000---7,900nmi – PAX 366 in 3 class config
787-8---------7,850nmi – PAX 242 in 3 class config
777-300ER---7,825nmi – PAX 386 in 3 class config
A350-900-----7,600nmi – PAX 322 in 3 class config
777-200ER----7,510nmi – PAX 314 in 3 class config
A330-200------7,300nmi – PAX 247 in 3 class config
787-10---------7,020nmi – PAX 323 in 3 class config
A330-300-------6,300nmi – PAX 277 in 3 class config
Perth to:
FCO 8,288
TXL 8,437 (Berlin)
FRA 8,606
Brisbane to:
DFW 8,303
YVR 7,351
Melbourne to:
DFW 8,303
YVR 8,992
Sydney to:
SCL 7,060
SFO 7,417
Some interesting choices based on $$$'s range and load."
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I can't see Emirates being to happy with this news as another 100 LWOP pilot exit the sandpit to return home. This combined with with the exodus of American pilots back to the U.S. majors might just slow there expansion plans a little!
Sorry for the confusion. I call the EA the contract, as do lots of us. While it is not "new" the conditions under which new hires will be hired are likely to be.
To be correct I should have said something along the lines of:
"The speculation is that all new S/O hires will be placed on new conditions under EA9. The conditions are likely to be more substantially more punitive than those in the current iteration of said EA, which is actually a WD."
Hope that clarifies things...
The only people who "know" things at the moment are senior management and negotiators from both sides. I can guarantee they have better things to do on a Friday night than sit on PPRuNe posting known knowns which may not become known and indeed may remain unknown knowns if AIPA COM votes against the proposal on Tuesday or the pilots vote against the proposal in coming months.
As I said earlier, it's all speculation, rumour and innuendo at the moment. Indeed, the only thing we DO know after 11 pages of this thread so far is that no-one on here "knows" anything.
I also have better things to do with what remains of my Friday so goodnight.
To be correct I should have said something along the lines of:
"The speculation is that all new S/O hires will be placed on new conditions under EA9. The conditions are likely to be more substantially more punitive than those in the current iteration of said EA, which is actually a WD."
Hope that clarifies things...
Might help if only those who KNOW things post. I guess it is a rumour thing...
As I said earlier, it's all speculation, rumour and innuendo at the moment. Indeed, the only thing we DO know after 11 pages of this thread so far is that no-one on here "knows" anything.
I also have better things to do with what remains of my Friday so goodnight.
Last edited by DirectAnywhere; 29th May 2015 at 11:02.
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Kegus maximus meridius me old mukka
I think QF is only looking at a very small number of 78-9's. Probably 10-12
I basis this on recent public comments by Tino La Spina (CFO) at the investor briefing.
The document from this briefing is a matter of public record. You can read all 152 pages of it below if you wish.
http://www.qantas.com.au/infodetail/...ation-2015.pdf
The bottom line is 'constrained' Capex for Qantas mainline but still relatively 'free' for the JQ offshore casinos (Japan, Vietnam, Singapore ect ect ect)
Other point from the above document is expansion through 'virtual alliances'
With 3 x B744 to be retired to avoid 'D' checks and 2 x A330 also to go, no net increase in bums on seats.
No chance of 50 airframes and definitely no expansion. I wish it wasn't so but the guys running the company hate Qantas mainline and will do anything to ensure that it stays just big enough to keep the rump of frequent flyers hooked. No more, no less.
I think QF is only looking at a very small number of 78-9's. Probably 10-12
I basis this on recent public comments by Tino La Spina (CFO) at the investor briefing.
The document from this briefing is a matter of public record. You can read all 152 pages of it below if you wish.
http://www.qantas.com.au/infodetail/...ation-2015.pdf
The bottom line is 'constrained' Capex for Qantas mainline but still relatively 'free' for the JQ offshore casinos (Japan, Vietnam, Singapore ect ect ect)
Other point from the above document is expansion through 'virtual alliances'
With 3 x B744 to be retired to avoid 'D' checks and 2 x A330 also to go, no net increase in bums on seats.
No chance of 50 airframes and definitely no expansion. I wish it wasn't so but the guys running the company hate Qantas mainline and will do anything to ensure that it stays just big enough to keep the rump of frequent flyers hooked. No more, no less.
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Ahhhhh bring on the punitive conditions! Hung by their toes and beaten with sticks at sign on. Nothing less.
"the only thing we DO know after 11 pages of this thread so far is that no-one on here "knows" anything."
I know some.
Everything will be cool, don't sweat it.
(Ignore mohikan)
"the only thing we DO know after 11 pages of this thread so far is that no-one on here "knows" anything."
I know some.
Everything will be cool, don't sweat it.
(Ignore mohikan)