Qantas Fleet Order Speculation
This was a good thread until a couple of posts took it off at a weird tangent.
Keg has earned the respect of those he has flown with and a lot of contributors on this forum who work for other airlines. At all times, he has acted with integrity - unlike some others.
Let's get this discussion about possibel QF aircraft orders back on track.
Keg has earned the respect of those he has flown with and a lot of contributors on this forum who work for other airlines. At all times, he has acted with integrity - unlike some others.
Let's get this discussion about possibel QF aircraft orders back on track.
Well my two bobs worth on the QF fleet.
Airbus A380
Boeing 787 for both QF and JQ
Airbus A330 for QF
Airbus A321 for both QF and JQ
Airbus A320 for both QF and JQ
Emb 170/190 for Cobham as the B717 replacement on Qlink
Dash 8/400 for the Qlink as the only turboprop in the fleet
Bye bye to the Pacific barons chariot the B747 over the next few years.
Standardise on the Airbus A320 for the domestic fleet between the red tail and orange star, would be a substantial cost saving.
Keg, as long as you got a flying job and a cold beer in the fridge when you get home from work what else do you need!
Airbus A380
Boeing 787 for both QF and JQ
Airbus A330 for QF
Airbus A321 for both QF and JQ
Airbus A320 for both QF and JQ
Emb 170/190 for Cobham as the B717 replacement on Qlink
Dash 8/400 for the Qlink as the only turboprop in the fleet
Bye bye to the Pacific barons chariot the B747 over the next few years.
Standardise on the Airbus A320 for the domestic fleet between the red tail and orange star, would be a substantial cost saving.
Keg, as long as you got a flying job and a cold beer in the fridge when you get home from work what else do you need!
Nunc est bibendum
Keg, as long as you got a flying job and a cold beer in the fridge when you get home from work what else do you need!
In essence that was my original point on the previous page before some contributors decided to lop down a pretty short poppy.
Thanks Going Boeing for the kind remarks.
I don't think Keg drinks (much anyway).
Going Boeing has seen me at my absolute worst a number of years ago in SIN. 
Lack of tolerance was partly why I was so bad and that night is a significant part of why I tend not to drink much these days! 
I reckon you may be close to the mark on the plan stationai8. Do you reckon there's a capacity gap between the 787 and the A380?
Stationair 8, reckon you are close, but would offer a few adjustments,
i think QF Group a keen to reduce number of differing types,
A380 for QF
787/9/10 for QF/JQ,and 787 to eventually replace A330 fleet,
A320/321 NEO for Both QF/JQ
E190 for COBHAM/QF Link
Dash 8 400 for QF Link
This would be a very efficient fleet for an Airline the size of the Qantas Group.
Only issue with the eventual retirement of the 747, is what will they use for Sydney Santiago and Sydney Johannesburg?
Will CASA give an Australian registered 787 sufficient ETOPS approval to operate those sectors efficiently?
If not, they will need a few more A380s.............by then assume 380 NEO is around,a 380 NEO would certainly be a help on Dallas run?
i think QF Group a keen to reduce number of differing types,
A380 for QF
787/9/10 for QF/JQ,and 787 to eventually replace A330 fleet,
A320/321 NEO for Both QF/JQ
E190 for COBHAM/QF Link
Dash 8 400 for QF Link
This would be a very efficient fleet for an Airline the size of the Qantas Group.
Only issue with the eventual retirement of the 747, is what will they use for Sydney Santiago and Sydney Johannesburg?
Will CASA give an Australian registered 787 sufficient ETOPS approval to operate those sectors efficiently?
If not, they will need a few more A380s.............by then assume 380 NEO is around,a 380 NEO would certainly be a help on Dallas run?
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Given LAN is already flying its 787 on AKL-SCL, it would be an obvious regulatory disadvantage if Qantas was not able to do substantially the same route in a similar aircraft
The 737's are beginning to get old. Carla had some psychosis induced vision to order a "butt load" of A320 family for asian entities, and the former LS had stated changing gauge for short haul could occur around 2017 (when swapping from B to A is an option). To be fair he was explaining at the time why it was too late to order 777's, so maybe it was all lies.
Yep, it would cost money to retrain, however the decision would be factoring fleet renewal of the earliest -800's vs NEO's. Think new capabilities of new versus keeping the status quo...
Personally, I'd think A320's for JQ and QF makes heaps and heaps of sense, and therefore won't happen.
Yep, it would cost money to retrain, however the decision would be factoring fleet renewal of the earliest -800's vs NEO's. Think new capabilities of new versus keeping the status quo...
Personally, I'd think A320's for JQ and QF makes heaps and heaps of sense, and therefore won't happen.
BNEA320,
The QF group has ordered WAY too many A320s, and given the performance of Jetstar overseas, they will never need them all, so rather than the expense of cancelling the options,as against retraining costs, makes sense for Qantas to start replacing the oldest 738s with A320 NEOs in due course!
However as Signatures says, its makes heaps of sense, thus probably wont happen!
The QF group has ordered WAY too many A320s, and given the performance of Jetstar overseas, they will never need them all, so rather than the expense of cancelling the options,as against retraining costs, makes sense for Qantas to start replacing the oldest 738s with A320 NEOs in due course!
However as Signatures says, its makes heaps of sense, thus probably wont happen!
Well my two bobs worth on the QF fleet.
Airbus A380
Boeing 787 for both QF and JQ
Airbus A330 for QF
Airbus A321 for both QF and JQ
Airbus A320 for both QF and JQ
Emb 170/190 for Cobham as the B717 replacement on Qlink
Dash 8/400 for the Qlink as the only turboprop in the fleet
Airbus A380
Boeing 787 for both QF and JQ
Airbus A330 for QF
Airbus A321 for both QF and JQ
Airbus A320 for both QF and JQ
Emb 170/190 for Cobham as the B717 replacement on Qlink
Dash 8/400 for the Qlink as the only turboprop in the fleet
Which markets does the A330 suit vs the 787?
Why have both A320 and A321, why not just the A321?
Virgin dispensed with the E170, so why have both E170/E190?
Will Qlink retain Dash 8/200 for LHI?
Airbus must be offering knock down prices if what were reading here is to be believed. The only sensible replacement for a 737 would be another 737, it does the job and it does it well. As others have mentioned though i guess if you dip your toe in the A320 market and order to many you have to put them somewhere, not saying it is a bad aircraft, but unless price is involved why swop to A320's from a 737 fleet.
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A321 NEO's make good sense for QF.
They can dual Aerobridge board to keep turns quicker L1 & L2. Also makes premium passengers feel more important if they board through a separate Aerobridge.
Fuel burn is much reduced on the NEO as compared with current 737NG.
Containerised freight is an additional advantage.
A large number of QF crews have Airbus experience, as do engineers.
Sydney, Melb, Perth & Bris would certainly welcome additional seating capacity per movement as they are getting constrained in peak times.
Endorsement costs would be insignificant (and are quite possibly included in aircraft purchase costs) over the life of the aircraft.
They can dual Aerobridge board to keep turns quicker L1 & L2. Also makes premium passengers feel more important if they board through a separate Aerobridge.
Fuel burn is much reduced on the NEO as compared with current 737NG.
Containerised freight is an additional advantage.
A large number of QF crews have Airbus experience, as do engineers.
Sydney, Melb, Perth & Bris would certainly welcome additional seating capacity per movement as they are getting constrained in peak times.
Endorsement costs would be insignificant (and are quite possibly included in aircraft purchase costs) over the life of the aircraft.
Training costs...
A quick note regarding endorsement training costs...
In normal times a pilot will stay on a particular type for five years, then perhaps return as a captain later. Aircraft typically stay on the books for twenty years, so you can see that a normal airline (ie, one not frozen in time by a failed ideology) would perform at least four cycles of endorsement training.
On a per aircraft basis, thats around 45-50 pilot courses. Airlines make a profit charging the unfortunate $30K for a course, so by that metric initial training, over the life of the airframe, is $1,500,000, give or take. Each aircraft should be able to generate > 1 Billion in revenue over 20 years. So the initial training is 0.15% of that number.
In normal times a pilot will stay on a particular type for five years, then perhaps return as a captain later. Aircraft typically stay on the books for twenty years, so you can see that a normal airline (ie, one not frozen in time by a failed ideology) would perform at least four cycles of endorsement training.
On a per aircraft basis, thats around 45-50 pilot courses. Airlines make a profit charging the unfortunate $30K for a course, so by that metric initial training, over the life of the airframe, is $1,500,000, give or take. Each aircraft should be able to generate > 1 Billion in revenue over 20 years. So the initial training is 0.15% of that number.
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737 vs A320:
One would imagine many inefficiencies during the changeover period if QF was to replace 737s with A320s.
There are 5 bases, and the oldest batch are around 14 years old vs the newest batch which are near new. So possibly many many years of a mixed fleet. The purchase price would have to have a pretty significant differential to justify the additional cost and loss of flexibility of a mixed fleet.
So, yes, they will probably do that.
One would imagine many inefficiencies during the changeover period if QF was to replace 737s with A320s.
There are 5 bases, and the oldest batch are around 14 years old vs the newest batch which are near new. So possibly many many years of a mixed fleet. The purchase price would have to have a pretty significant differential to justify the additional cost and loss of flexibility of a mixed fleet.
So, yes, they will probably do that.
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The NEO is simply a better aeroplane than the max. The 900 can't compete with the A321.
I'd be shocked if Qantas didn't get some.
The 737 is a lovely aeroplane and the Ng wing is a better wing than the 320, but it's an old aeroplane design and no matter how good the wing is, it's still attached to a 1960s fuselage. It's basically a B707!
I'd be shocked if Qantas didn't get some.
The 737 is a lovely aeroplane and the Ng wing is a better wing than the 320, but it's an old aeroplane design and no matter how good the wing is, it's still attached to a 1960s fuselage. It's basically a B707!
BNEA320...yes, but try and generate revenue without any pilots...the punters won't put up with a nice aeroplane that just sits there.
