Qantas Fleet Order Speculation
Agreed. I think there will be a lot of disappointed pilots when they realise how few promotions/ transfers back into LH there will be in the next 3-5 years.
8 aeroplanes arriving with 5 disappearing means a net increase of 3, or roughly 24 new Capt and FO slots. With lots of pilots on LWOP and lots of pilots RIN-ed keen to get back onto something, and lots of RINs still to happen on the 380 and 400, it doesn't take a genius to work out there will be little if any "real" movement in the next few years.
RIN-ed 400 Capts and FOs will be taking a big pay hit if the only place for them is the 787.
There will be the illusion of movement, but that's not the same as real promotional opportunities.
8 aeroplanes arriving with 5 disappearing means a net increase of 3, or roughly 24 new Capt and FO slots. With lots of pilots on LWOP and lots of pilots RIN-ed keen to get back onto something, and lots of RINs still to happen on the 380 and 400, it doesn't take a genius to work out there will be little if any "real" movement in the next few years.
RIN-ed 400 Capts and FOs will be taking a big pay hit if the only place for them is the 787.
There will be the illusion of movement, but that's not the same as real promotional opportunities.
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Promotions & Recruitment ??
Don't you guys get it
Your profit was a fluke , your profit was a fluke , your profit was a fluke
Or to try to explain it another way
You ar*ed it , you ar*ed it , you ar*ed
You got dumb ar*e lucky on fuel
Lets have a quick look at what you are doing wrong , say he only two service
that you run to Asia from more than one Aussie city like HK and Sing.
Here you run daily from Melb/Bris/Syd in clapped out old 330s , we've got grandma & pops(wearing his pink shirt) as the crew, and an entertainment system that looks like some kind of Tandy relic from the 1980s
You compete against SIA & Cathay , who are always in world top 5 , fly at least three daily services to Melb/Bris/Syd & also Perth/Adelaide. Operate new gear, leading edge entertainment system, and young fresh courteous cabin crew who actually do things like clean the toilet during the flight
Interesting both SIA & Cathay these days fly around 1/3 of the international pax into Aust that Qantas do.
Yet you run around talking it up , that the boys are back in town isn't it all just so wonderful.
Then again I guess Hirdy & Bronny also had to get the tap on the shoulder & the PM actually thinks he can win the next election.
The fat lady is HOOOOOOWWWWWLING .................
Don't you guys get it
Your profit was a fluke , your profit was a fluke , your profit was a fluke
Or to try to explain it another way
You ar*ed it , you ar*ed it , you ar*ed
You got dumb ar*e lucky on fuel
Lets have a quick look at what you are doing wrong , say he only two service
that you run to Asia from more than one Aussie city like HK and Sing.
Here you run daily from Melb/Bris/Syd in clapped out old 330s , we've got grandma & pops(wearing his pink shirt) as the crew, and an entertainment system that looks like some kind of Tandy relic from the 1980s
You compete against SIA & Cathay , who are always in world top 5 , fly at least three daily services to Melb/Bris/Syd & also Perth/Adelaide. Operate new gear, leading edge entertainment system, and young fresh courteous cabin crew who actually do things like clean the toilet during the flight
Interesting both SIA & Cathay these days fly around 1/3 of the international pax into Aust that Qantas do.
Yet you run around talking it up , that the boys are back in town isn't it all just so wonderful.
Then again I guess Hirdy & Bronny also had to get the tap on the shoulder & the PM actually thinks he can win the next election.
The fat lady is HOOOOOOWWWWWLING .................
Promotions & Recruitment ??
Don't you guys get it
Your profit was a fluke , your profit was a fluke , your profit was a fluke
Or to try to explain it another way
You ar*ed it , you ar*ed it , you ar*ed
You got dumb ar*e lucky on fuel
Lets have a quick look at what you are doing wrong , say he only two service
that you run to Asia from more than one Aussie city like HK and Sing.
Here you run daily from Melb/Bris/Syd in clapped out old 330s , we've got grandma & pops(wearing his pink shirt) as the crew, and an entertainment system that looks like some kind of Tandy relic from the 1980s
You compete against SIA & Cathay , who are always in world top 5 , fly at least three daily services to Melb/Bris/Syd & also Perth/Adelaide. Operate new gear, leading edge entertainment system, and young fresh courteous cabin crew who actually do things like clean the toilet during the flight
Interesting both SIA & Cathay these days fly around 1/3 of the international pax into Aust that Qantas do.
Yet you run around talking it up , that the boys are back in town isn't it all just so wonderful.
Then again I guess Hirdy & Bronny also had to get the tap on the shoulder & the PM actually thinks he can win the next election.
The fat lady is HOOOOOOWWWWWLING .................
Don't you guys get it
Your profit was a fluke , your profit was a fluke , your profit was a fluke
Or to try to explain it another way
You ar*ed it , you ar*ed it , you ar*ed
You got dumb ar*e lucky on fuel
Lets have a quick look at what you are doing wrong , say he only two service
that you run to Asia from more than one Aussie city like HK and Sing.
Here you run daily from Melb/Bris/Syd in clapped out old 330s , we've got grandma & pops(wearing his pink shirt) as the crew, and an entertainment system that looks like some kind of Tandy relic from the 1980s
You compete against SIA & Cathay , who are always in world top 5 , fly at least three daily services to Melb/Bris/Syd & also Perth/Adelaide. Operate new gear, leading edge entertainment system, and young fresh courteous cabin crew who actually do things like clean the toilet during the flight
Interesting both SIA & Cathay these days fly around 1/3 of the international pax into Aust that Qantas do.
Yet you run around talking it up , that the boys are back in town isn't it all just so wonderful.
Then again I guess Hirdy & Bronny also had to get the tap on the shoulder & the PM actually thinks he can win the next election.
The fat lady is HOOOOOOWWWWWLING .................
In the olden days aviation careers were like being on a conveyor belt. You got picked up at one end and deposited at age 55 as a Captain on the biggest aircraft in the fleet at the other without having to second guess where you were going.
Now its like being in the baggage sorting room. Other people determine where you will end up and quite possibly not at the destination that was originally tagged.
Now its like being in the baggage sorting room. Other people determine where you will end up and quite possibly not at the destination that was originally tagged.
There was a lot of luck in the Qantas result , however the low fuel price will be there for many years to come via hedging. Guessing numbers is very difficult however I think there will be a number of 787s coming close together which will mean that they will,have to train up before 747s go. Ten Captains equal twenty FOs equal 40 SOs. IMO once the 787 arrives they will love them and plenty more will come. As an aside I believe that around 40% of Qantas pilots are over 50 plus there is a very high number of pilots on long term sick leave. Personally I think the light you see coming is not a train and the next five years will be a very pleasant surprise for Qantas pilots career wise. Only time will tell, and I hope I don't have to eat my words.
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Agreed. Many of the junior pilots in QF have not experienced an expansion. When the 767 first arrives with an order of 7 in 1985, the original reports from the bean counters were disappointing. Many pilots felt that the stagnation of the previous decade would continue.
History records differently.
The Company will put the first 787 on high yielding routes on which they will be very profitable. More will follow in quick time and Qantas will expand.
History records differently.
The Company will put the first 787 on high yielding routes on which they will be very profitable. More will follow in quick time and Qantas will expand.
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however the low fuel price will be there for many years to come via hedging.
Another way of thinking about it is the B787 is the fuel hedge that will last for a decade ++ through reduced burn. The premium is locked in at the time of purchase as a capital cost. Lower (and potentially significantly lower future) fuel prices actually work against the business case for B787.
Lower (and potentially significantly lower future) fuel prices actually work against the business case for B787.
It's costing Virgin Australia more to operate a newish 777 between Australia and LA than it is for QANTAS to do the same thing in an older 747 at the moment.
It's a remarkable turnaround but entirely due to luck rather than good planning and foresight.
Br fair; it's very hard to have any foresight or see anything in front of you at all when you need a ladder to reach your office chair
AJ has squeezed the orange lemon as much as he can.
The best thing he can do with them now after the HK debacle is gift the NZ operation with some surplus Dash 8's!
The JQ project is over and is now consolidating.
Where is the next vehicle for good returns......QF!
Last weeks announcement confirms that.
So it's QF's turn to get the attention.
All is in place but Flight Ops is running on cost index 0!
If anything picks up then Chaos will follow because no one has planned for it.
It's only eight orders but if the flying program picks up then divisors then promotion will follow at the least.
Look at the 744 hours now?
What if the 330 gets a new route, maybe Mumbai direct with a new configure 200?
There's talk of direct Beijing?
QF are pushing to resolve crew rest on the new configure 200's....why? Not just because of Manila but it wil open up a whole bunch of other possible routes as well.
The network chaps are actively implementing new routes now.
This all means new hires over time. A lot of them which can only be good.
It's happened before and it will happen again, hold on!
The best thing he can do with them now after the HK debacle is gift the NZ operation with some surplus Dash 8's!
The JQ project is over and is now consolidating.
Where is the next vehicle for good returns......QF!
Last weeks announcement confirms that.
So it's QF's turn to get the attention.
All is in place but Flight Ops is running on cost index 0!
If anything picks up then Chaos will follow because no one has planned for it.
It's only eight orders but if the flying program picks up then divisors then promotion will follow at the least.
Look at the 744 hours now?
What if the 330 gets a new route, maybe Mumbai direct with a new configure 200?
There's talk of direct Beijing?
QF are pushing to resolve crew rest on the new configure 200's....why? Not just because of Manila but it wil open up a whole bunch of other possible routes as well.
The network chaps are actively implementing new routes now.
This all means new hires over time. A lot of them which can only be good.
It's happened before and it will happen again, hold on!
Last edited by Wingspar; 29th Aug 2015 at 22:58.
I did scratch my head as to why there was no international standard of crew rest included in the new config A332s. Seemed quite short sighted to restrict 18 aircraft to short range flying. But I guess it's an easily fixed problem.
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Not sure if you've seen the most recent seat maps,
but this map for EBS and EBV lists an Intl Config (albeit not sure where the 5th designated seat is)
http://www.qantas.com.au/infodetail/...-28J243Yv2.pdf
Seems to support that the 18 330-200s will be effectively two configs.
The older 10 planes with iPads in Y which will be domestic only, and the newer 8 planes with Panasonic seatback IFE in Y while will be domestic/ international.
Given QF has previously run a fleet of 4 international 330-200s and a few more 747s have/will be retired 8 seems to make sense.
but this map for EBS and EBV lists an Intl Config (albeit not sure where the 5th designated seat is)
http://www.qantas.com.au/infodetail/...-28J243Yv2.pdf
Seems to support that the 18 330-200s will be effectively two configs.
The older 10 planes with iPads in Y which will be domestic only, and the newer 8 planes with Panasonic seatback IFE in Y while will be domestic/ international.
Given QF has previously run a fleet of 4 international 330-200s and a few more 747s have/will be retired 8 seems to make sense.
Thanks for that moa999, I hadn't seen that before. EBS operated to Singapore recently and a crew brief was released saying that the A332s may operate "shorter" international sectors. I wonder if the reference to "5 CCR" is a bit of a typo and it should be 4 CCR and 1 FCR. I remember sometimes on the old config international A332s a heavy curtain was installed around 1A/B for additional flight crew rest.