Qantas Fleet Order Speculation

[SixDemonBag]

"Interesting map on pg.37 of the main presentation.
Potential new destinations of Moscow, Addis Abbaba, Seattle, Mexico City"

You're joking, right? Pretty sure it's just a random selection of cities to help with orientation.

[Bad Adventures]

I guess they'll use them on San Fran, Vancover and JFK.

[Fuel-Off]

(I'm guessing) that the incredibly high elevations of Addis Abbaba (7656') and Mexico City (7316') might inhibit the 'hub busting' abilities that the 789 is being slated for.

Especially if QF decide to de-rate the donks like they did with the first few 787s for JQ

Fuel-Off

[Fatguyinalittlecoat]

QF Investor Update with financial highlights.

- Underlying PBT - $975 million
- Overall CASK down 5.1%
- Overall Yield up 1.1%
- Underlying EBIT of $480 million for QF domestic; (2014 $30 million)
- Underlying EBIT of $267 million for QF International (2014 $-497 million excluding the fleet writedown)
- Underlying EBIT of $230 million for Jetstar; (2014 -$116 million)
- Underlying EBIT of $315 million for Loyalty; (2014 $286 million)
- Underlying EBIT of $114 million for Freight: (2014 $24 million)

How about that, QF is 3 times more profitable than Jetstar. Even QF international is more profitable.

Jetstar losses their only outstanding wide body orders to the mothership.

[CoolB1Banana]

What feasible new direct routes are we talking here?

Can it make Melbourne-Athens or Sydney-New York?

Where else can it fly to that the 744ER can't with a viable load?

[chuboy]

North America generally seems like an obvious target.

I doubt Joyce will be too keen to venture into Asia, again, after the many experiences with the various Jetstar incarnations. But that is another obvious place to look, if only to increase frequencies to cities already served from Sydney but nowhere else.

The other possibility is increasing frequencies into Europe via Dubai on behalf of Emirates. Emirates are getting pushback now whenever they try to get slots into hubs where they compete with the legacy carriers.

[Keg]

MEL- DFW.

SYD- JFK is still too long. That's 777-8 territory.

I reckon the initial routes are YVR, SFO, JFK (perhaps BNE- LAX- JFK) and maybe MEL- DFW- JFK to give our punters two ways of getting to JFK. Possibly BNE- NRT to replace the A330 on that route and transfer the A330 onto the SYD- HND or variations on that theme.

[Going Boeing]

Previous indications from management were for the initial 8 B787-9's to replace 3 B744's (S,T & U) in 2018/19 and 2 A330's - this morning's announcement says that they will be replacing 5 B747's (M, S, T, U & OEB) with no mention of the A330's so they might stay a bit longer until the next tranche of B787's arrive.

[ExtraShot]

Right about the numbers, wrong on the timing.

Rumour is all 50 to QF in ten years (again, galley gossip, sort of)

Actually, all up I think there are 53.

From the Fleet update;

8 Orders

15 Options

30 Purchase Rights.

Remember, there were 3 788's marked for JQ (out of 14 total) that are no longer getting the Silver and Orange.

[Buckshot]

I reckon the initial routes are YVR, SFO, JFK (perhaps BNE- LAX- JFK) and maybe MEL- DFW- JFK to give our punters two ways of getting to JFK. Possibly BNE- NRT to replace the A330 on that route and transfer the A330 onto the SYD- HND or variations on that theme.

I think you could well be right, Keg. I would also add BOM (non-stop both directions) as others have speculated elsewhere.

Hope to see you back in the left seat of one of these 78s, Keg. I've always enjoyed your contributions to the forum.

[Ken Borough]

I don!t think punters to NYC would care about the intermediate airport. Let's get radical and look at a Honolulu hub! From anywhere in Aust to anywhere in North America and vice versa?

[maggot]

Originally Posted by Buckshot

Hope to see you back in the*left*seat of one of these 78s, Keg. I've always enjoyed your contributions to the forum.

I suspect the seniority number needed for the first 8 will be out of his league? I'm thinking it'd be crewed by 330 (q) and jumbo capts. As a rough guesstimate. If more are ordered then all bets are off! Depends what happens to the a330 fleet also.
Pretty sure i wont get a guensey either LOL
Many over 65 FOs and SOs about?

[busdriver007]

I am afraid for Keg's sake Maggot is correct....His only left seat will be a narrow body before the A320s get painted. The pilots had a chance to address their career stagnation but I am afraid it is only going to get worse! Watch the rush from the B737 fleet and then the Jumbo will be reduced and you can get the drift. Good Luck!

Originally Posted by maggot

I suspect the seniority number needed for the first 8 will be out of his league? I'm thinking it'd be crewed by 330 (q) and jumbo capts. As a rough guesstimate. If more are ordered then all bets are off! Depends what happens to the a330 fleet also.
Pretty sure i wont get a guensey either LOL
Many over 65 FOs and SOs about?

[maggot]

737 fleet senior enough for it?
Thanks for the lulz

Not wrong about the career stuff though, a bunch of a380 FOs are getting RINd atm, apparently

[bdcer]

Hey busdriver, what A320s are you referring to?

[Keg]

Agreed. My best hope is a residual A330 slot but there will be many 737 crew who will trump me on that too I suspect.

Anyway, no huge rush. Lots of water to go under the bridge yet. But thanks for the sentiment Buckshot.

[The Green Goblin]

Keg will probably find himself in one of those undesirable 747 commands.

Yes it's a hard pill to swallow but someone has got to suck it up and take one for the team

[Stationair8]

At least there is some light at the end of the tunnel for the QF guys and girls!

Noted in the Australian on Friday, QF have approximately 50 retirements a year in the pilot group and possibly of up to 30 B787 to be added to the fleet over the next few years. Could be an interesting times ahead in the pilot recruitment business.

Best of luck with future promotions Keg!

[Keg]

Keg will probably find himself in one of those undesirable 747 commands.

29 Apr 08 was my last sector on the 744. After we shut down the Cpatain shook my hand and said congratulations, that'll probably be the last time ever you fly the 744. I was shocked as I'd never even given thought to never getting back to it but I realised he was probably right.

I'd LOVE to have 'jumbo captain' as one of the descriptors of my aviation career but sadly I can't see it ever happening. A mate managed to do it and he pinches himself every time he flys it. Of course he did and continues do do an inordinate amount of drudge work to be lucky enough to get that opportunity.

[ANCDU]

I think those thinking there will be massive promotions and recruitment in the short term at QANTAS might be a bit disappointed. There are a huge amount of RIN'd pilots to get their rank back, LWOP and MOU pilots to come back, and if the squirrel caging on rosters gets approved a lot of people will change fleet/ rank. Last I heard retirements were approx 150 over 5 years. Sure recruiting in the future but a measured approach.

Remember this is a business case for 8 aircraft only,sure there will eventually probably be more but they are " group" options...all it takes is another GFC or SAR's and the pendulum will swing back towards the low cost option. Remember Jetstar isn't there to necessarily make massive profits, but protect Qantas from a low cost onslaught from Asia, and cater for a different demographic in Australia that grows as interest rates rise!

This is great news for Qantas, and I finally see a dim light at the end of a tunnel, but I am sitting on my hands for the moment, we all know what usually happens when they start talking promotions and recruiting......a downturn is just around the corner.