Qantas back to SFO
CT: Yes. He is after the next sugar hit to increase his bonus or he leaps madly from one idea to the next in the HOPE (as you said) one works. He has been running around like a headless chook when the airline needs an AIRLINE CEO. And as we all know there is no one with any experience in airlines running the place. I think initially they wanted to spin off vast chunks for huge personal gain but that failed, so now they are progressing down any little blind alley that takes their fancy. Which is exactly what any company doesn't want. I hope our product isn't swamped by AA's, but if I was AA I would be all over the little Irish nurk's latest thought bubble. And I would be laughing about it all the way to my next board room meeting and beyond. Qantas won't be able to survive many more of Elaine's triumphantly negotiated deals.
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just read that with new & revived QF/AA services OZ/USA there will be a 9% increase in capacity from 20DEC, but that there will be no decrease in fares.
So how are they going to sell an extra 9% without dropping fares, even a little ?
Get more yanks to fly here ? More ff seats ?
So how are they going to sell an extra 9% without dropping fares, even a little ?
Get more yanks to fly here ? More ff seats ?
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CT
The "Home Run" in his mind is Jetstar Japan, alleging the current stake is worth double what QF have tipped in
This is how the "home run" looks on the scoreboard:
Started flying on 3 July 2012.
FY ended June 2013: Revenue Y12.8bn Operating Income -Y8.8bn
FY ended June 2014: Revenue Y29.1bn Operating Income -Y11.1bn
FY ending June 2015: Revenue ESt Y 32-33bn Operating Income Est -Y8-9bn
Initial capitalisation Y12bn
Ist recap Nov 2013 Y 11bn
2nd recap Nov 2014 Y11bn
Current Cash Situation approx Y5bn
Business has transitioned from startup and now running at a stable but negative earnings rate of approx 25% of revenue based on a 20XA320 fleet.
There will be a requirement for an additional capital injection before Xmas but JAL is disinclined to participate.
QF is locked into a 33.3% voting shareholding even though it's economic shareholding is now 47.1%.
Elaine claims the stake is worth twice what they have injected = A$ 300m
Now that is interesting math.
The "Home Run" in his mind is Jetstar Japan, alleging the current stake is worth double what QF have tipped in
This is how the "home run" looks on the scoreboard:
Started flying on 3 July 2012.
FY ended June 2013: Revenue Y12.8bn Operating Income -Y8.8bn
FY ended June 2014: Revenue Y29.1bn Operating Income -Y11.1bn
FY ending June 2015: Revenue ESt Y 32-33bn Operating Income Est -Y8-9bn
Initial capitalisation Y12bn
Ist recap Nov 2013 Y 11bn
2nd recap Nov 2014 Y11bn
Current Cash Situation approx Y5bn
Business has transitioned from startup and now running at a stable but negative earnings rate of approx 25% of revenue based on a 20XA320 fleet.
There will be a requirement for an additional capital injection before Xmas but JAL is disinclined to participate.
QF is locked into a 33.3% voting shareholding even though it's economic shareholding is now 47.1%.
Elaine claims the stake is worth twice what they have injected = A$ 300m
Now that is interesting math.
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Hey, Fokker, no, your calculator isn't faulty. However, someone familiar with the situation suggests there have been informal offers of around $2 billion for the enterprise, hence, exactly as you say, the QF stake would be valued at $600+. That is the logic behind the valuation.
Any chance you could introduce me to them? I've got an opera house and harbour bridge I'd like to sell!!!'
33.3% is all Qantas can own under Japanese legislation. If they put another $50 million they will never see it again! A business that is stable but has negative earnings is heading for bankruptcy! Jetstar Asia lost $33 million, what an amazing business!
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Curtains
Excuse me if I was not clear enough. QF Group has poured in a total of Yen 15bn to date. This equates to about AUD160m.
Net cash is approx Yen 5 billion with a cash burn rate of Yen 0.7 billion per month. Thus, the Mexican stand-off will reach a climax later this year.
11 of the a/c are owned by Mitsubishi Corporation (5) and Century Tokyo Leasing (6). They each have a 16.7% shareholding (voting) but a diluted economic interest given the two recaps undertaken to date. Neither of these two shareholders wishes to inject additional capital into the business. Likewise Japan Airlines.
The only way the model in Japan can be made to look like it is working is to take the a/c leasing costs and bury them somewhere else in the group via some opaque financial engineering that will be yet another prickly porcupine for QF shareholders to endure.
Not sure why Elaine is dog-whistling a figure of $2 bn but must assume he or "someone who is familiar" means the total Jetstar group. Let's see how that figure is arrived at...
QF ASK's + JQ ASK's = TTL ASK's
(JQ ASK's/TTL ASK's)XQF Market Cap = $2bn
Well the above calculation is as plausible as any other explanation the Coward St abacus clackers might come up with.
As they say, if it walks like a duck...
Excuse me if I was not clear enough. QF Group has poured in a total of Yen 15bn to date. This equates to about AUD160m.
Net cash is approx Yen 5 billion with a cash burn rate of Yen 0.7 billion per month. Thus, the Mexican stand-off will reach a climax later this year.
11 of the a/c are owned by Mitsubishi Corporation (5) and Century Tokyo Leasing (6). They each have a 16.7% shareholding (voting) but a diluted economic interest given the two recaps undertaken to date. Neither of these two shareholders wishes to inject additional capital into the business. Likewise Japan Airlines.
The only way the model in Japan can be made to look like it is working is to take the a/c leasing costs and bury them somewhere else in the group via some opaque financial engineering that will be yet another prickly porcupine for QF shareholders to endure.
Not sure why Elaine is dog-whistling a figure of $2 bn but must assume he or "someone who is familiar" means the total Jetstar group. Let's see how that figure is arrived at...
QF ASK's + JQ ASK's = TTL ASK's
(JQ ASK's/TTL ASK's)XQF Market Cap = $2bn
Well the above calculation is as plausible as any other explanation the Coward St abacus clackers might come up with.
As they say, if it walks like a duck...
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Fokker, wasn't having a go at you, I simply couldn't resist the obvious gag! I wish there was an auto /Sarc tag.
In all seriousness, the $2 billion valuation has nothing to do with your valid metrics, rather, its what someone else is willing to pay for the entire enterprise. The claimed "fly away" price is in the vicinity of $2 billion. We are talking different things, you are talking logic, reason & accounting valuation. Those familiar with the situation are talking about the valuation of entire entity as a trading asset, not conventional business metrics. We are comparing Fuji's with Cherries.
In all seriousness, the $2 billion valuation has nothing to do with your valid metrics, rather, its what someone else is willing to pay for the entire enterprise. The claimed "fly away" price is in the vicinity of $2 billion. We are talking different things, you are talking logic, reason & accounting valuation. Those familiar with the situation are talking about the valuation of entire entity as a trading asset, not conventional business metrics. We are comparing Fuji's with Cherries.
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Curtains
No problem. Never thought you were having a go.
Guessing the $2bn would be the only thing to fly away. Definitely some roos loose in the top paddock.
As a sidebar, no Oz mainland cherries allowed in to Japan due to some infestation issue. Prophetic perhaps.
Cheers
No problem. Never thought you were having a go.
Guessing the $2bn would be the only thing to fly away. Definitely some roos loose in the top paddock.
As a sidebar, no Oz mainland cherries allowed in to Japan due to some infestation issue. Prophetic perhaps.
Cheers
Probably best not to comment when you are not in possession of factual information. You look very, very silly.
Cant seem to delete this. It was meant to be a response to the delightful FlyboatNorth on another thread. Sorry if anyone read this the way it was written rather than the way I intended it.
Cant seem to delete this. It was meant to be a response to the delightful FlyboatNorth on another thread. Sorry if anyone read this the way it was written rather than the way I intended it.
Last edited by V-Jet; 15th Jun 2015 at 10:36.
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V
ECAMS issue.
You press edit then it gives you a delete prompt.
If all else fails ...reboot.
Helps to have Bus time.
Always enjoy your posts.
Speaking of "what's it doing now?"..more factual information available soon from the Land of the Fuji apple.
ECAMS issue.
You press edit then it gives you a delete prompt.
If all else fails ...reboot.
Helps to have Bus time.
Always enjoy your posts.
Speaking of "what's it doing now?"..more factual information available soon from the Land of the Fuji apple.
