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300 Qantas pilots to get the chop ???

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300 Qantas pilots to get the chop ???

Old 17th Jul 2014, 13:47
  #961 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
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How many seats on July 18th again? How many muffins did they buy?
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Old 17th Jul 2014, 13:59
  #962 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
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Still ain't "going broke, bloke"
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Old 17th Jul 2014, 21:18
  #963 (permalink)  
 
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outside limits

Quote:
JQ 37 SYD-Bali July 18.........63 spare seats
JQ 37 SYD-Bali July 19 .........99 spare seats.
JQ 37 SYD-Bali July 20 .........122 spare seats
Quote:
Should I continue ?
Yes, you could start with the return sectors.

JQ38 DPS-SYD July 1814 spare seats
JQ38 DPS-SYD July 1911 spare seats
JQ38 DPS-SYD July 1810 spare seats

Not sure who the Idiot is?
On a 335 seat aircraft that means load factors of
July 18 90%
July 19 86%
July 20 83%

I have assumed this is operated by a 787. For a low cost carrier these are not fabulous figures. For May jetstar international load factor from the Qantas figures was 66% and that anyway you look at it is awful and unsustainable.
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Old 17th Jul 2014, 21:47
  #964 (permalink)  
 
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LCC's require load factors in excess of 90% on each and every flight including muffin sales to make any profit at all, due to their low margins...basic economics! This is why Jetstar had a staff travel sale, to get the load factors up to hide the problem. These load factors are unsustainable any way you look at it!
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Old 18th Jul 2014, 00:03
  #965 (permalink)  
 
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C441,

Spot on! I couldn't agree more. Unfortunately those same types just don't want to hear it. It's always the same blokes. You generally don't even need to read who posted it to know who did.
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Old 21st Jul 2014, 22:27
  #966 (permalink)  
 
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Location: brisbane
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Ryanair made 523 million euro profit last year on an 83% load factor, must have failed economics 101......
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Old 21st Jul 2014, 22:49
  #967 (permalink)  
 
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Yes, and that's a far cry from the mid sixties load factor that Jetstar international is operating with.
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Old 21st Jul 2014, 23:51
  #968 (permalink)  
 
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Or 74.2% load factor reported to the asx in May?
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Old 22nd Jul 2014, 06:05
  #969 (permalink)  
 
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WTH has load factors at JQ and Ryanair have to do with "300 Qantas pilots to get the chop? " Tenuous at best.

It would appear that no QF pilots will be CR'ed at this time. Yes?
Agreed. Yesterday's Insights strengthens the suspicion that China Southern will soon take a substantial minority share in Qantas. The subsequent injection of cash should allow the exercising of 787 options.

Where they go of course is anyone's guess. The suspicion that some would be slated to go to mainline is boosted by the large surplus of pilots that will still be held after the current RIN process has finished.

There is no need to keep pilots in surplus if there is no need for them. They are a cost to the business and demoting them before CR negates the cost savings of demotion.

Where I think this is going:

* Pilots are being held in reserve in case the Board decides to exercise 787 options.

* A China Southern equity deal will be announced about two minutes before the record loss is announced.

* Some of the -9s will go to mainline.

* An attempt will be made to invoke the Stockholm syndrome to have the -9 flown on wages and conditions less than the Longhaul WD.

If none of the above happens in the next couple of months, further RINs/VR and CR will be announced by the end of the year.
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Old 22nd Jul 2014, 23:50
  #970 (permalink)  
 
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If 787s ever fly in Qantas colours, they will be flown by Pilots on a new rate of pay and a simplified award.
They didnt give the first 787s to Jetstar for fun, it was done for a reason, to introduce the type within the Qantas group, on jetstar terms and conditions.
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Old 23rd Jul 2014, 00:28
  #971 (permalink)  
 
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If the sole driver for your business is what you pay pilots then you have a big problem and will fail.

The 787's went to JQ for a multitude of reasons, none of which was the award under which they would be flown.

The 787's flown by QF may be flown under different conditions but not a different award. Might look like the one that the A330 was introduced on. Might look a little different. Won't look like the JQ one.
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Old 23rd Jul 2014, 01:27
  #972 (permalink)  
 
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Post

Capt Kremin

You are a quality contributor to this Forum

Where I think this is going:

* Pilots are being held in reserve in case the Board decides to exercise 787 options.

* A China Southern equity deal will be announced about two minutes before the record loss is announced.

* Some of the -9s will go to mainline.

* An attempt will be made to invoke the Stockholm syndrome to have the -9 flown on wages and conditions less than the Longhaul WD.
I believe history will show the above to be a most prescient post.
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Old 23rd Jul 2014, 04:25
  #973 (permalink)  
 
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A+ Capt Kremin

Top of the class Capt Kremin. I have been thinking along similar lines to yourself for a long while but haven't been able to tie together all of the clues as neatly and succinctly as you just have. Your scenario is the most logical way of tying all of the facts we know together into a coherent strategy.
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Old 23rd Jul 2014, 05:59
  #974 (permalink)  
 
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Looks like there's a power play going on in China.

A. China Southern with a potential equity in Qantas.

B. China Eastern launching the China United LCC based in Beijing.

C. China Eastern is the QF partner for the JQ Hong Kong Venture

D. Air China (has a cross share with Cathay), where Cathay has been fiercely opposed to JQ Hong Kong.

China Eastern & Southern are competitors, where the former is now setting up its own LCC & the third player (Air China) objects thru CX to the JQ HKG start up.
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Old 23rd Jul 2014, 06:55
  #975 (permalink)  
 
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I think Cpt Kremlin has basically nailed it. There has to be a reason why we will continue to carry surpluses if there is no requirement for us in the future, but the T&Cs will be different than current LH conditions, I think what the 330 was introduced under would be palatable. Probably more closer to a 767 hourly rate i would guess.
The elephant in the room though is what will QF do with the Partnership with EK and will that be dissolved to then Hub through Shanghai or Guangzhou with our new partner?

It would certainly make more sense to have a fleet of 787s flying into a hub in asia than just two 380s flying into the Middle east.

Interesting times ahead but things do indicate that once this record loss is announced come 24/8 the miraculous turn around will begin.

Fingers and toes crossed!
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Old 23rd Jul 2014, 09:14
  #976 (permalink)  
 
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"Interesting times ahead but things do indicate that once this record loss is announced come 24/8 the miraculous turn around will begin."

... And after that the company will be happy to carry a surplus to retain an international operation that universally through its awards, pays approximately a 100% premium on wages, which cost the business hundreds of millions of dollars.......

If anyone in Qantas international needs any more indication, the latest "splitting the business" leaks shows it is all over via a multi-move coup de gras.

To suggest the company is keeping a surplus to allow for future expansion on long haul awards (any of them) is clutching at straws. The actuaries, who were fed the grand plan inputs from the consultants, have written it all in the stars.

The CEO remains until his promises to the big boys have been fulfilled.

The plan is unfolding........ For the pilots; leave if you're on the long haul award and have anywhere to go.
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Old 23rd Jul 2014, 10:35
  #977 (permalink)  
 
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If anyone in Qantas international needs any more indication, the latest "splitting the business" leaks shows it is all over via a multi-move coup de gras.
I think you might want to educate yourself a little bit more than reading puff pieces from the QF spin machine.

Firstly, Qantas would only split the business and duplicate the Virgin model ONLY if the 100% foreign ownership restrictions were lifted. Purely because it is a to expensive exercise to only attract 49% foreign investment. Under Virgins structure they comply with the air navigations act internationally and ownership laws domestically, they don't have a sales act that restricts foreign ownership on their share registry so they can go to 100%.

The Air navigation act isn't the issue in QF's case. QF's issue is that the QSA only allows a foreign entity to own 49% of Qantas PTY LTD on the share registry, so it doesn't matter how many companies QF split into only 49% on the registry can be purchased and that 49% would cover all the individual segments that QF had split into. To emulate Virgin from this point in time wouldn't be impossible but would be time consuming and way to expensive to contemplate considering the right downs and losses already rumoured for this year. To me this won't be the road the current management will follow.

So to me the only real options for QF is to show significant future growth, profit and the books balanced and in the black to attract cashed up foreign entities.
Enter the Chinese Carriers and my guess is that we will see the 787s in the not to distant future with Red tails and current QF pilots at the helm, T&Cs will be the only unknown.

So no matter how much of a bitter pill it is for some on here to see QF international continue in the future and the mainline pilots to have a job, QF group needs the INT arm just as much as it needs DOM,the regionals and a LCC.

Qf is a 4 legged table, if one of the legs breaks the whole lot will fall over.

........ For the pilots; leave if you're on the long haul award and have anywhere to go.
Thats just a stupid and uneducated comment, grow up!
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Old 24th Jul 2014, 06:19
  #978 (permalink)  
 
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What about selling off FF. I gather it would be a separate listed company? Does the 49% come into that? Possibly if still classified as a subsidiary?

What if QF domestic was listed as a separate company "Qantas Domestic Ltd"? Not a subsidiary but a separate entity that Qantas Airways Limited completely sold off.

I don't think the Sales Act deals with this - selling off entire units of the company.
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Old 24th Jul 2014, 07:11
  #979 (permalink)  
 
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SUB

It wouldn't surprise me if a new owner was behind the 'business transformation'.

Loading up the costs of transforming the business pre purchase.
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Old 24th Jul 2014, 10:46
  #980 (permalink)  
 
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Oh yes, you're right, everything is going to be just fine..... Just go about complaining about the new hotel in LA, and the consultants will look after your career. Trust them.

I never said anything about copying Virgin. I think it's going to be worse than that, but unless you've signed an xxxxx consulting confidentiality clause, we're all guessing.....

Ask yourself though, what do you think they will do when they value the unit output of a 20 year old cadet at Jetstar earning $70,000 as much as a A380 FO in mainline earning $300,000. The new rate for a second officer at Jetstar in their new EBA is $55,000 , a qantas a380 second officer earns $230,000. Etc etc etc.

With a 1 billion dollar loss coming, I think there will be changes. They will have carte blanche. They are very experienced in "transforming" businesses.
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