Aviation sector on brink of collapse, Gary's not happy either
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No nerve hit, just letting you know you sound like a GFPT-holding planespotter who thinks that riding in a jet jump seat once makes you some kind of airline expert. You sound like Compylot, but most of use realise he was 'made up' for a bit of a laugh. Leave the real discussion to the adults next time.
I'd do that, but the ignore button seems to be missing.
If you don't like what's being said you don't have to read it.
I'd do that, but the ignore button seems to be missing.
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Lodown, good pick up with your 4 points.
Pleased to say point 3 is already on the move.
Point 4 also is with the Badgery Creek announcement... always thought Richmond was the go but better people than I, in the know have decided.
BNE320...Cooma is a basket case and always will be so long as it has the current Eden/Monaro Shire Council and remains on a major road link. We looked into ops closer to the NSW resorts when doing Hotham Express (expansion of Jindy ALA or new runway other side of lake) but came up against hurdles at every turn. Enough said.
Rex of course has their own motives, being driven ruthlessly by Singapore while enough has been said about QF management and motives elsewhere here.
Interesting point nomorecatering, regarding farmers. No where else in the world is the grocery/food supply chain controlled by just 2 players, at such a high market share (~95% I recall reading?).
So "Aviation on the brink of collapse"? There are many fundamental issues wrong with the current structure of Australia... many mentioned above already. It's gonna take many years to turn around this "FUBAR" left behind but like NZ it can be done.
In aviation lets just start by getting the "muppets" out of admin (aka the UK BMI turkeys who thought they could run an antipodean regional -Brindy).
One things for sure, this inquiry into thug Unions & corruption is going to answer a lot of questions over why its expensive here and why the car manufacturers are bailing.
Happy landings.
Pleased to say point 3 is already on the move.
Point 4 also is with the Badgery Creek announcement... always thought Richmond was the go but better people than I, in the know have decided.
BNE320...Cooma is a basket case and always will be so long as it has the current Eden/Monaro Shire Council and remains on a major road link. We looked into ops closer to the NSW resorts when doing Hotham Express (expansion of Jindy ALA or new runway other side of lake) but came up against hurdles at every turn. Enough said.
Rex of course has their own motives, being driven ruthlessly by Singapore while enough has been said about QF management and motives elsewhere here.
Interesting point nomorecatering, regarding farmers. No where else in the world is the grocery/food supply chain controlled by just 2 players, at such a high market share (~95% I recall reading?).
So "Aviation on the brink of collapse"? There are many fundamental issues wrong with the current structure of Australia... many mentioned above already. It's gonna take many years to turn around this "FUBAR" left behind but like NZ it can be done.
In aviation lets just start by getting the "muppets" out of admin (aka the UK BMI turkeys who thought they could run an antipodean regional -Brindy).
One things for sure, this inquiry into thug Unions & corruption is going to answer a lot of questions over why its expensive here and why the car manufacturers are bailing.
Happy landings.
Last edited by Chocks Away; 11th Feb 2014 at 03:34.
In case you missed it..
REX begs for Govt help, but what about Pel-Air victims?
Now that's a little bit more relevant to the here and now!
And the thread of course..
REX begs for Govt help, but what about Pel-Air victims?
Now that's a little bit more relevant to the here and now!
And the thread of course..
Why is it everybody is so inward and myopic about aviation in this country.
The current ailments with third level airline operations can be sheeted home to basic economics 1.01
Firstly very short haul airline routes are only successful when there are two criteria.
1. There is sufficient dynamic mass (population or freight demand) to warrant the size of the aircraft being operated.
2. There is an impediment to other forms of transport, ie rail or road
An example of this is Bathurst. In the 1950s Butlers ran a variety successful service. This was due to critical mass being met and the road journey was long due to the nature of the roads and cars in those days. Look at it now mass remains the same (DC3 vs SAAB 340 similar loading) BUT the roads have improved and the motor vehicles are more efficient.
Now take a regional long haul, Wagga or Broken Hill, both have critical mass and both are sufficiently distant from Sydney to be an acceptable alternative to driving.
For all the beating about Brindabella, they serviced routes that were just not viable either in demand for the size of the aircraft or alternate transport cost models.
Country residents of NSW especially had better get use to reduced air services. The only way they will ever have economic services that are efficient and warrant an operator getting a fair return is either
1. Hub and Spoking from such centres as Dubbo, Coffs Harbour, Tamworth etc.
2. Accept regional services from their town to Bankstown where the huge costs levied by Mascot airport are reduced off the air fares.
But neither of these options would be accepted so the inevitable will occur, like Victoria where regional air services have all but disappeared.
And before the pundits who haunt these hallows start telling me I haven't a clue, my face was both a Butler and Air NSW captain and I have lived with regional airlines all my life.
PS.
The only absolutely safe regional route is Sydney Lord Howe. And why because it is a monopoly both in operators/fares and because for all practical purposes the only means of transport
The current ailments with third level airline operations can be sheeted home to basic economics 1.01
Firstly very short haul airline routes are only successful when there are two criteria.
1. There is sufficient dynamic mass (population or freight demand) to warrant the size of the aircraft being operated.
2. There is an impediment to other forms of transport, ie rail or road
An example of this is Bathurst. In the 1950s Butlers ran a variety successful service. This was due to critical mass being met and the road journey was long due to the nature of the roads and cars in those days. Look at it now mass remains the same (DC3 vs SAAB 340 similar loading) BUT the roads have improved and the motor vehicles are more efficient.
Now take a regional long haul, Wagga or Broken Hill, both have critical mass and both are sufficiently distant from Sydney to be an acceptable alternative to driving.
For all the beating about Brindabella, they serviced routes that were just not viable either in demand for the size of the aircraft or alternate transport cost models.
Country residents of NSW especially had better get use to reduced air services. The only way they will ever have economic services that are efficient and warrant an operator getting a fair return is either
1. Hub and Spoking from such centres as Dubbo, Coffs Harbour, Tamworth etc.
2. Accept regional services from their town to Bankstown where the huge costs levied by Mascot airport are reduced off the air fares.
But neither of these options would be accepted so the inevitable will occur, like Victoria where regional air services have all but disappeared.
And before the pundits who haunt these hallows start telling me I haven't a clue, my face was both a Butler and Air NSW captain and I have lived with regional airlines all my life.
PS.
The only absolutely safe regional route is Sydney Lord Howe. And why because it is a monopoly both in operators/fares and because for all practical purposes the only means of transport
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Welcome back Compylot
Yeah you got me, I must be a bit uptight from those stall recoveries. My legs are tired too from picking up the dropped wing with only rudder, hence the extra grumpiness. I'm looking forward to area solo one day, but more so can't wait to fly with you in the sim in the future - you've got some great CRM ideas that the old timers just don't get!
Anyway, time for me to bow out of this discussion so it can get back to topic.
Yeah you got me, I must be a bit uptight from those stall recoveries. My legs are tired too from picking up the dropped wing with only rudder, hence the extra grumpiness. I'm looking forward to area solo one day, but more so can't wait to fly with you in the sim in the future - you've got some great CRM ideas that the old timers just don't get!
Anyway, time for me to bow out of this discussion so it can get back to topic.
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Don't get me wrong DHCpilot, I'm not bleating about Brindy, it just suited my argument. Yes, supply and demand as you say but I was also adding the poor management factor on top, given both Aeroduck & Brindy were viable operations quietly tapping away prior.
The Hazo board disregarding Max and cutting the Avalon run is another example I could have used, or Skytrans. It took Hazos just 3 months for that Avalon sector to make $$ for them until the board in their wisdom cut it. Anyway...
Airlink & DM is a good example of successful hub & spoke ops that you mention. As was Tamair and Singleton Air Services. O'Connor & Sharp Aviation too.
The Hazo board disregarding Max and cutting the Avalon run is another example I could have used, or Skytrans. It took Hazos just 3 months for that Avalon sector to make $$ for them until the board in their wisdom cut it. Anyway...
Airlink & DM is a good example of successful hub & spoke ops that you mention. As was Tamair and Singleton Air Services. O'Connor & Sharp Aviation too.
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interesting idea
"2. Accept regional services from their town to Bankstown where the huge costs levied by Mascot airport are reduced off the air fares."
Bankstown costs way lower than Mascots & who actually wants to go to Sydney CBD anyway ? Something like 3/4 of Sydney population live closer to Bankstown than Mascot anyway.
Think there's currently a cap on RPT services into Bankstown. Is it 12/day ?
+ Rex wouldn't want to fly to Bankstown, as they are scared of being shut out of Mascot to be replaced by bigger aircraft, who pay much higher fees.
Bankstown costs way lower than Mascots & who actually wants to go to Sydney CBD anyway ? Something like 3/4 of Sydney population live closer to Bankstown than Mascot anyway.
Think there's currently a cap on RPT services into Bankstown. Is it 12/day ?
+ Rex wouldn't want to fly to Bankstown, as they are scared of being shut out of Mascot to be replaced by bigger aircraft, who pay much higher fees.
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Also ignores those who fly regional airlines to connect to International services. Much harder at Bankstown...
Anyhow Rex will make a lot more profit than Qantas and Virgin Australia combined this year!
Anyhow Rex will make a lot more profit than Qantas and Virgin Australia combined this year!
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how many regional passengers at SYD connect to other services
with some towns having only 1 service a day, eg. SYD/NAA/SYD not going to connect with many international services, so would presume that many NAA originating passengers, are used to idea of having to overnight in Sydney anyway. Who wants to sit at Mascot all day !!!
Bankstown is about a 20 min drive along M5 to Mascot. Thrifty rentals are at Bankstown Airport, just outside main gate on Marion St.
They would probably pick up passengers at the terminal. Think it's less than 1km.
Could do a 24 hour car hire for around $70 dropping off at Mascot. Add about $5-$10 for fuel.
Bankstown is about a 20 min drive along M5 to Mascot. Thrifty rentals are at Bankstown Airport, just outside main gate on Marion St.
They would probably pick up passengers at the terminal. Think it's less than 1km.
Could do a 24 hour car hire for around $70 dropping off at Mascot. Add about $5-$10 for fuel.
Bankstown as the alternate to Sydney?
Why is it every time it is mentioned you get the same arguments no transport, other operators take over their mascot over country town routes.
Perhaps an analysis of economic cost benefit would be appropriate.
TRANSPORT
Anyone who has seen a plan of Bankstown knows that BAL has had plans for a terminal on the old dhavilland/Boeing site.
Next look at Henry Lawson Drive from the M5 to Bankstown, you will notice there is a corridor that would allow an extra lane either way. Next anyone who travels this road will tell you that large number of obtained trucks use it to access Woodville Road.
If Henry Lawson Drive was widened then the transport solution would be satisfied - shuttle buses for those that need transport to Sydney or Mascot. His also applies to rail here the option is too rail lines Bankstown and East Hills.
PROTECTED ROUTES
This is a no brainier. As most NSW routes are regulated by the State Government control of who flies where is controllable hence other operators can be shut out of a route Mascot to Country town if the encumbering elected to go into Bankstown.
FARES
I would estimate that a Banktown bound flight would easily save the travelling public around $60 off each seat.
Reductions such as this would actually stimulate traffic and the loser would probably be Countrylink. If the $60 savings was applied to a Dubbo flight against the rail fare it may actually come close to parity on some fare options.
LOCATION
Everyone who says Bankstown is unacceptable, should stop and think. In all likelihood Badgreys will be selected by the Abbott Government and here the hell is it -Western Sydney.
Finally what qualifications does this writer have
1. A Structural Engineering Degree majoring in road bridge and traffic design
2. Business degree in tourism management and transport management
3. 40 years in aviation
Why is it every time it is mentioned you get the same arguments no transport, other operators take over their mascot over country town routes.
Perhaps an analysis of economic cost benefit would be appropriate.
TRANSPORT
Anyone who has seen a plan of Bankstown knows that BAL has had plans for a terminal on the old dhavilland/Boeing site.
Next look at Henry Lawson Drive from the M5 to Bankstown, you will notice there is a corridor that would allow an extra lane either way. Next anyone who travels this road will tell you that large number of obtained trucks use it to access Woodville Road.
If Henry Lawson Drive was widened then the transport solution would be satisfied - shuttle buses for those that need transport to Sydney or Mascot. His also applies to rail here the option is too rail lines Bankstown and East Hills.
PROTECTED ROUTES
This is a no brainier. As most NSW routes are regulated by the State Government control of who flies where is controllable hence other operators can be shut out of a route Mascot to Country town if the encumbering elected to go into Bankstown.
FARES
I would estimate that a Banktown bound flight would easily save the travelling public around $60 off each seat.
Reductions such as this would actually stimulate traffic and the loser would probably be Countrylink. If the $60 savings was applied to a Dubbo flight against the rail fare it may actually come close to parity on some fare options.
LOCATION
Everyone who says Bankstown is unacceptable, should stop and think. In all likelihood Badgreys will be selected by the Abbott Government and here the hell is it -Western Sydney.
Finally what qualifications does this writer have
1. A Structural Engineering Degree majoring in road bridge and traffic design
2. Business degree in tourism management and transport management
3. 40 years in aviation
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Ah, but we forget BK is owned by real-estate sharks who are severely getting their fingers burnt as they thought they wouldn't actually have to run an airport, just price aviation out of it then flog off the real-estate.
They would rub their hands with glee at the fees they could bilk from a captive commuter airline with nowhere else to go. Then of course the other parasites on aviation such as the "security Industry"would move in and before you know it air fares would be unaffordable.
Before you even started flying there's the hundreds of thousands of dollars needed just to get the AOC, long before you even sourced an aircraft. Maintenance costs are three times as expensive as elsewhere due to over regulation, hell its costing tens of thousands of dollars just to induct a pilot these days with the Bul.sh.t CAsA require.
With our current regulator and their current regulations I cannot see any sane person investing in aviation in Australia. Maybe when it finally collapses here the Kiwi's might make a go of it using their regulations.
They would rub their hands with glee at the fees they could bilk from a captive commuter airline with nowhere else to go. Then of course the other parasites on aviation such as the "security Industry"would move in and before you know it air fares would be unaffordable.
Before you even started flying there's the hundreds of thousands of dollars needed just to get the AOC, long before you even sourced an aircraft. Maintenance costs are three times as expensive as elsewhere due to over regulation, hell its costing tens of thousands of dollars just to induct a pilot these days with the Bul.sh.t CAsA require.
With our current regulator and their current regulations I cannot see any sane person investing in aviation in Australia. Maybe when it finally collapses here the Kiwi's might make a go of it using their regulations.
Last edited by thorn bird; 11th Feb 2014 at 11:28.
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would flights out of Bankstown rather than SYD be protected ?
interesting question.
Regarding security, don't think there would be any requirement at Bankstown as don't think a Dash 8-400 can get in & out with a full load, so no requirement for security, as per most Rex routes, except at SYD end.
Another question ... if Rex used another terminal at SYD such as the old original Virgin terminal, if it's not already occupied by someone else, they wouldn't have any need for expensive security, would they ?
Speaking of Kiwi regs, when a NZ registered aircraft operates in Australia, on a NZ AOC, who's rules apply ?
Plenty of existing AOC's around flying aircraft that could operate in & out of Bankstown with a decent number of passengers to make it viable.
Regarding security, don't think there would be any requirement at Bankstown as don't think a Dash 8-400 can get in & out with a full load, so no requirement for security, as per most Rex routes, except at SYD end.
Another question ... if Rex used another terminal at SYD such as the old original Virgin terminal, if it's not already occupied by someone else, they wouldn't have any need for expensive security, would they ?
Speaking of Kiwi regs, when a NZ registered aircraft operates in Australia, on a NZ AOC, who's rules apply ?
Plenty of existing AOC's around flying aircraft that could operate in & out of Bankstown with a decent number of passengers to make it viable.
BNEA320- You may care to read your regs. ATSR 2005 prescribes requirements for airports requiring Transport Security Programs(TSRs) and you will find that the Q400 sits in the category that requires screening and while charter up to 20,000 kg is allowed without screening there is pressure to reduce that and in fact the draft regs that are being discussed move to more stringent requirements, brought on by political pressures of course. Over 50,000 passenger per year is another requirement. The triggers impose costs on airport owners which of course are passed on to operators and ultimately the passengers. I think the Saab and older Dash 8 are fine at the moment. Of course we could move to more efficient and cheaper(less safe) overseas models but at what cost?
Of course we could move to more efficient and cheaper(less safe) overseas models but at what cost?
Just why do you think "more efficient and cheaper" translates to "less safe".
There is no evidence that the CASA micro-management of aviation to a standstill producers "safer" outcomes, excepting, of course, with no aircraft flying there will be no accidents.
If you care to have a close look at accident statistics (using ICAO definitions) you will find the Australian record quite ordinary, and you will find the US leads the word in all statistical categories of safety outcomes.
Tootle pip!!
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As has been said many times: Australians want to live their current lifestyle without being prepared to pay for it. Have a look at the cost of living on Sinapore, Japan and Europe! And yet, Singapore is just about the economic centre of the world, Japan is one of the most prolific manufacturing centres of the world (behind China and India) and Europe still manages to keep its aviation and certain manufacturing industries (eg. cars) going, despite the ongoing woes of the Eurozone.
Perhaps Australia needs to return to the "old days" of being a bunch of protectionist a***holes. Hike tariffs for anything imported into the country, use those tariffs to subsidise our own industries to kick start manufacturing and farming again.
But of course no one would vote for the party that carried that policy to an election because everyone only wants to pay $500 for a 50" plasma at JB Hi-Fi, not $5000...
Perhaps Australia needs to return to the "old days" of being a bunch of protectionist a***holes. Hike tariffs for anything imported into the country, use those tariffs to subsidise our own industries to kick start manufacturing and farming again.
But of course no one would vote for the party that carried that policy to an election because everyone only wants to pay $500 for a 50" plasma at JB Hi-Fi, not $5000...
