MERGED: Alan's still not happy......
The answer to your question Boe787 is no unless our dumb Government give in so we can export live sheep to the Al Maktoum Abattoirs where all the highest hygiene and labour standards are upheld(not!). 123 services a week and 137 from March 2015. The problem is there is no limit to the seats e.g. A380 services to ALL Australian capital cities including Darwin and Canberra(if it fits).
That limit is the UAE which includes Etihad and Emirates.
That limit is the UAE which includes Etihad and Emirates.
That scenario with Emirates would not suprise, but do Emirates have anymore traffic rights to increase services to Australia using their own metal?
They can upscale from 77Ws to A380s at their will provided the airport can provide them with the gates. The next logical upscale will be another of the MEL flights going to A380 probably DXB-SIN-MEL at which stage QF can be expected to further lower their services on SIN-MEL.
MEL will have the A380 gate capacity with SQ moving its A380s onto Indian services.
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So is Alan happy now?
Its an amazing business when Execs can give away the house and get nothing for it yet again.
Surely it must be time for someone to ask what is going on here OR this place is in heaps of trouble.
Surely it must be time for someone to ask what is going on here OR this place is in heaps of trouble.
And what did the market think on the last day of the FY?
... down 5.62 percent..
https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-A...ay-of-year.JPG
Jetstar puts Uluru back on the map
Another "rock solid" strategy.
Last edited by TIMA9X; 30th Jun 2014 at 09:48. Reason: add video
May traffic figures out. Dreadful. Only good point QF international load factor up 1.6% year on year. The worst Jetstar domestic down 3.2% and jetstar international down 4.6%. Standby for August 28 and the full year results. Il go around $1.5 billion. Very ugly I think.
So under the current arrangement, Emirates could upgauge the Dubai Singapore Brisbane return service to a 380, and Qantas drop brisbane singapore return, but Emirates would need an increase in traffic rights to as suggested extend the Dubai Hong Kong service to Brisbane?
The worst Jetstar domestic down 3.2% and jetstar international down 4.6%. Standby for August 28 and the full year results. Il go around $1.5 billion. Very ugly I think.
If all else fails, a complete lack of ability to look facts in the face will see us (Management, not the Company) through.....
Tima: Not sure QF has that many chips left!!!! I did like the 'sinkhole' effect you got in the wheel with Jet* - why is it you can see it but those paid millions can't?
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why is it you can see it but those paid millions can't?
I battle on because none of the staff did anything wrong, particularly the operational staff. OK, some of the senior pilots earn a good wack, they deserve it, it's the way it is for all legacy airlines who have been around for nearly 100 years, but they are productive and would fly 900 hours a year if the management ordered the right fleet in the first place. Instead, here we are in 2014 sharing out 600 hours a year roughly, for mainline pilots because of the poor fleet decisions going back to 2005, betting the farm on what were essentially "experimental" aircraft and both were very late. Not one fat cat manger, all clearly lacking "common business sense" could see that they needed to order in small numbers "proven technology" (B777) to protect the established LH business. Anyway, we have been over and over this on here many times... it didn't happen even when they were offered B777s only a couple of years back. What pi_ _'s me off is the fact AJ & co turned their bad mistakes around to make the operational staff look bad claiming the pilots etc are too expensive and that they are non productive.... which is just plain wrong. They shirked responsibility for their poor decisions, blatantly front loading all the redundancy costs, Jetstar costs etc onto this years results destroying good peoples lives along the way, and to make it worse, bonus's all round next year for saving money, just a horrible way to do business.
Why? Because Jetstar International/Asia was going to save the day... hindsight is a wonderful thing, now we know it was all pie in the sky stuff, LC and AJ failed. The media fell for it, (not their fault) but the well paid "aviation/market analysts" fell for it or went along with it, not one of them setting off alarm bells that LC/AJ were on the wrong course. Great example here, just read the comments from TH & Co
Tigerair Mandala to cease flying on 30 June | Plane Talking
Says it all.. and those alarm bells should have been set off from those well paid aviation/market analysts at last years AGM when both LC & AJ said everything was "all good" and Qantas group was on track
http://www.pprune.org/australia-new-...ml#post8421055
http://www.qantas.com.au/infodetail/...essAGM2013.pdf
http://www.qantas.com.au/infodetail/...essAGM2013.pdf
Here we are in 2014 and look at the mess they have got themselves into, it's now all the staff's fault...but it's clear to many they didn't have a clue what was going on with their business at the time.. they seem to just say anything to get them through that day... a great sign of short term-ism management.
Over last weekend when Albo popped up in the media I knew that things were stirring again... they are all in on it, here we go again...
Qantas loss could break billion barrier
The Labor Party's weekend announcement that it would soften its stance on Qantas ownership restrictions suggests shadow transport minister Anthony Albanese may be girding his loins for another round of public debate on the need for some kind of government leg-up for the airline.
It's probably no coincidence his concessions have been heralded towards the end of a financial year in which the airline's performance has continued to deteriorate and on the eve of the matter being put to the Senate.
Stranger still, it coincides with speculation in the industry that Qantas may be set to release a loss much larger than anticipated.
Following a $250 million loss in the first half of the year the current analyst consensus is for a loss of around $700 million on an underlying basis. On top of this they are expecting about $200 million-$400 million of one-off losses - most accounted for by the cost of making 2200 jobs redundant by June 30, 2014. This would boost the airline's statutory loss to more than $1 billion. Some analysts have this number as high as $1.2 billion.
But over the past week the chatter that additional write-downs will be made - particularly on aircraft - has led to a view that even $1 billion could be well shy of the year-end underlying loss and that $1.5 billion could be closer to the mark. Qantas wouldn't be drawn on the speculation.
Read more: Qantas loss could break billion barrier
People, its simple.
The likes of Clifford and Joyce will always blame someone or something, never themselves, for their failures.
International is currently rooted and now you are seeing the demise of domestic side of the business, which up until recently could almost be guaranteed to produce a $500 mill profit.
Combine that with their need for consultants to be employed as "change managers" (bain boston and whoever else is in on this band wagon) and also the continued belief that management requires a bonus scheme to attract the "right people" and you have these results.
The recovery is simple.
Every Consultant project on the floor is stopped.
The executive bonus scheme in any form, i.e. short term and long term incentive plan is stopped and never returned in any ugly form. Salaried positions from the top down.
The continued mirroring of Qantas and Jetstar services domestically is stopped.
The immediate need for international aircraft orders to right the ship.
Get the ceo's of boeing and airbus on the phone now, we need to talk.
Call in the heads of all the unions, we need to talk.
Number one priority is flying people safely from a to b in decent equipment and feeding said passengers.
No need for town hall meetings at the campus, with the happy clappers marching down the street, nor the need for the glossy brochures pinned up in every crew room talking up some nett promoter score bs or how important our people are.
And whilst I'm at it, No need for the ceo to be in canberra with cap in hand asking for assistance, when all the problems can be placed at his and the boards feet.
Will it happen? Of course not, because its not Leigh or Alan's fault!
The likes of Clifford and Joyce will always blame someone or something, never themselves, for their failures.
International is currently rooted and now you are seeing the demise of domestic side of the business, which up until recently could almost be guaranteed to produce a $500 mill profit.
Combine that with their need for consultants to be employed as "change managers" (bain boston and whoever else is in on this band wagon) and also the continued belief that management requires a bonus scheme to attract the "right people" and you have these results.
The recovery is simple.
Every Consultant project on the floor is stopped.
The executive bonus scheme in any form, i.e. short term and long term incentive plan is stopped and never returned in any ugly form. Salaried positions from the top down.
The continued mirroring of Qantas and Jetstar services domestically is stopped.
The immediate need for international aircraft orders to right the ship.
Get the ceo's of boeing and airbus on the phone now, we need to talk.
Call in the heads of all the unions, we need to talk.
Number one priority is flying people safely from a to b in decent equipment and feeding said passengers.
No need for town hall meetings at the campus, with the happy clappers marching down the street, nor the need for the glossy brochures pinned up in every crew room talking up some nett promoter score bs or how important our people are.
And whilst I'm at it, No need for the ceo to be in canberra with cap in hand asking for assistance, when all the problems can be placed at his and the boards feet.
Will it happen? Of course not, because its not Leigh or Alan's fault!
TIMA9X,
Agree, CEO and the board have, and no doubt never will take any responsibility for their bad decision making!!
However re the 380 and 787, the 787 was 5 years late and then suffered a subsequent grounding once it finally entered service!!
The 787 problems have been far worse than the 380s entry into service!
And the jury is still out on the lithium batteries, with 330 mins ETOPS, would you be comfortable on a 787 say Sydney Johannesburg or Sydney to Santiago?
I believe Qantas were aiming eventually for a simplified fleet of 3 types, 380, 787 and 737, to run both International and Domestic operations.
As great an Aircraft as the 777 is, Qantas needed a wide body that could do several roles, wide body domestic, regional asia and long thin international routes.
The 777 is simply too big in any variant to work domestically, and Qantas is unique in requiring a fleet of wide bodies to operate domestic services.
Very few airlines anywere, run 767/330 flights hourly over a 1.5 hr sector!
So Qantas chose the 787, as unlike the 777, it could do all 3 roles, and if it were not for Boeings problems, the 787/9s would have been in service for several years already!
Agree, CEO and the board have, and no doubt never will take any responsibility for their bad decision making!!
However re the 380 and 787, the 787 was 5 years late and then suffered a subsequent grounding once it finally entered service!!
The 787 problems have been far worse than the 380s entry into service!
And the jury is still out on the lithium batteries, with 330 mins ETOPS, would you be comfortable on a 787 say Sydney Johannesburg or Sydney to Santiago?
I believe Qantas were aiming eventually for a simplified fleet of 3 types, 380, 787 and 737, to run both International and Domestic operations.
As great an Aircraft as the 777 is, Qantas needed a wide body that could do several roles, wide body domestic, regional asia and long thin international routes.
The 777 is simply too big in any variant to work domestically, and Qantas is unique in requiring a fleet of wide bodies to operate domestic services.
Very few airlines anywere, run 767/330 flights hourly over a 1.5 hr sector!
So Qantas chose the 787, as unlike the 777, it could do all 3 roles, and if it were not for Boeings problems, the 787/9s would have been in service for several years already!
It is very obvious that Clifford & Joyce have no intention to purchase any more aircraft for mainline and thus as more aircraft are sent to the graveyard, services will have to be withdrawn.
They are smart enough to know that the institutional shareholders will query pulling out of profitable routes so they have to engineer the situation so that it appears unprofitable. This is currently happening to the JNB route - Joyce cancelled the Joint Agreement with SAA citing that the ACCC is unlikely to allow the agreement to be renewed (he didn't even try to get it renewed). Since the cancellation, SAA have been putting all their pax on their services to PER with East Coast feeds on Virgin. This has totally changed the dynamics of the daily QF SYD-JNB-SYD service, reducing from a very high (& profitable) load factor to an unprofitable load.
I expect that there will soon be an announcement that the services will drop to 3 or 4 per week and some months later, QF will pull out of the route totally. Thus a couple of B747's can go to the desert without having to be replaced. There will be more jobs lost as Clifford's plan to dismantle Qantas continues.
They are smart enough to know that the institutional shareholders will query pulling out of profitable routes so they have to engineer the situation so that it appears unprofitable. This is currently happening to the JNB route - Joyce cancelled the Joint Agreement with SAA citing that the ACCC is unlikely to allow the agreement to be renewed (he didn't even try to get it renewed). Since the cancellation, SAA have been putting all their pax on their services to PER with East Coast feeds on Virgin. This has totally changed the dynamics of the daily QF SYD-JNB-SYD service, reducing from a very high (& profitable) load factor to an unprofitable load.
I expect that there will soon be an announcement that the services will drop to 3 or 4 per week and some months later, QF will pull out of the route totally. Thus a couple of B747's can go to the desert without having to be replaced. There will be more jobs lost as Clifford's plan to dismantle Qantas continues.
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with predictions now being talked about around $1.5 billion loss - at what point does the Group become insolvent? there is now talk about debt facilities, bonds etc etc - a year ago the talk was about sufficient cash reserves in the bank this talk is now all very quiet, has the money now gone??
Yes, it will be a huge reported loss this year.
AJ will blame others then reinforce his plan.....yada..yada..yada.
If at the end of the day QF don't commit to 787 next year then it's all over.
AJ will blame others then reinforce his plan.....yada..yada..yada.
If at the end of the day QF don't commit to 787 next year then it's all over.
That's the million dollar question. The 787-9s are optioned at a very good price but with no money who knows. Perhaps the options can be transferred to another airline smart enough to know their real value. Elaine flew to China several weeks ago in VH-FMG. Probably trying to do a desperate deal with China Southern.
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I think Ben Sums it up well here
Jetstar long distance load factors drop into unsurvivable bracket
Jetstar long distance load factors drop dangerously low | Plane Talking
Commentary Among the very poor traffic and yield figures in the latest Qantas guidance to the ASX in monthly traffic stats, Jetstar International continues to fly enough empty seats to kill itself, or if nothing gets done, the parent company.
In May it flew with 31.2 per cent of its seats unoccupied. For the low cost model, which is predicated on high occupancy figures, this is lethal if not corrected. It has shown no signs of being effectively corrected in recent times, even though Jetstar has abandoned various routes and sharply reduced frequency on others.
Yet this is the part of Qantas that is putting into service what will be a fleet of 14 Boeing 787-8s while returning a smaller number of what are largely borrowed Qantas A330-200s.
The Qantas occupancy by-fare-paying-passenger stats in other parts of its operation also reported falling numbers, apart from Qantas long haul, which showed a monthly improvement. Qantas domestic, once supposed to be the cash cow of the group, flew with 29.6 per cent of its seats empty in May including those flown by its Qantaslink brand.
As for the mainstream media.... it will take them a while longer to catch on... can't risk a front page full colour Qantas ad... they too are doing it tough.. and money talks...
http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-e...701-zsrko.html
Jetstar long distance load factors drop into unsurvivable bracket
Jetstar long distance load factors drop dangerously low | Plane Talking
Commentary Among the very poor traffic and yield figures in the latest Qantas guidance to the ASX in monthly traffic stats, Jetstar International continues to fly enough empty seats to kill itself, or if nothing gets done, the parent company.
In May it flew with 31.2 per cent of its seats unoccupied. For the low cost model, which is predicated on high occupancy figures, this is lethal if not corrected. It has shown no signs of being effectively corrected in recent times, even though Jetstar has abandoned various routes and sharply reduced frequency on others.
Yet this is the part of Qantas that is putting into service what will be a fleet of 14 Boeing 787-8s while returning a smaller number of what are largely borrowed Qantas A330-200s.
The Qantas occupancy by-fare-paying-passenger stats in other parts of its operation also reported falling numbers, apart from Qantas long haul, which showed a monthly improvement. Qantas domestic, once supposed to be the cash cow of the group, flew with 29.6 per cent of its seats empty in May including those flown by its Qantaslink brand.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-e...701-zsrko.html
Last edited by TIMA9X; 1st Jul 2014 at 02:20. Reason: add link
Going Boeing,
Agree re Johannesburg, another free kick from Qantas!
Most of the Passengers who previously booked via the South African code share on the Qantas flight Sydney to Johannesburg, are now flying VA to Perth, and then South African Perth to Johannesburg.
So extra passengers for both Virgin and South African, all because "they thought the code share agreement" would not be extended!!
Well why not run with it till it expired, and apply for a continuation?
Agree re Johannesburg, another free kick from Qantas!
Most of the Passengers who previously booked via the South African code share on the Qantas flight Sydney to Johannesburg, are now flying VA to Perth, and then South African Perth to Johannesburg.
So extra passengers for both Virgin and South African, all because "they thought the code share agreement" would not be extended!!
Well why not run with it till it expired, and apply for a continuation?
These are times that test the mettle, the vision, and the agility of managements. Qantas is among those being so sorely tested, and the question is, whether its management is up to it, especially in a sixth year without dividends, and a junked share price.
Perhaps the options can be transferred to another airline smart enough to know their real value
Perhaps the options can be transferred to another airline smart enough to know their real value
with predictions now being talked about around $1.5 billion loss - at what point does the Group become insolvent? there is now talk about debt facilities, bonds etc etc - a year ago the talk was about sufficient cash reserves in the bank this talk is now all very quiet, has the money now gone??
Last edited by 1A_Please; 1st Jul 2014 at 02:40. Reason: spelling
I notice EK are now actively selling Aust to the USA via DXB at attractive fares with a free stopover.
Last edited by B772; 2nd Jul 2014 at 04:26. Reason: Replace DUB with DXB
The 787's offer an opportunity.An opportunity that only a vision will realise.
Unfortunately there is a distinct lack of vision at the moment.
I'm praying something changes before the deadline next year.
Can QF afford it? It has too!
Whatever needs to be done must be done.
Everyone else by the end of the decade will have 787's or 777's with the new one around the corner.
QF will be at a competitive disadvantage.
God it is at the moment with 744's and mid life A 330's.
What will it look like in five years!
They need the 787. There is no option.
Unfortunately there is a distinct lack of vision at the moment.
I'm praying something changes before the deadline next year.
Can QF afford it? It has too!
Whatever needs to be done must be done.
Everyone else by the end of the decade will have 787's or 777's with the new one around the corner.
QF will be at a competitive disadvantage.
God it is at the moment with 744's and mid life A 330's.
What will it look like in five years!
They need the 787. There is no option.