MERGED: Alan's still not happy......

[bmam7]

VH-Cheer Up

I prostrate myself. (Almost wrote prostate - that would have sent your pedantry-meter sky high Of course Scousers are from Liverpool and Geordies from Newcastle. I knew that. (I'm from Fife, Scotland originally myself!!!)

I can only put it down to my irritation with AJ and a temporary hit of high blood pressure..

[Spey]

Originally Posted by AEROMEDIC

The board, unfortunately, believes in these two and that they are right, and that they will be there to the end.

Seems they will be both be there to the strategically orchestrated end which could be very close indeed.

[Conductor]

As a crew member on one of the soon-to-be-retired fleets I am very certain that the greatest threat to my job is not being made eventually redundant by a process of reduction in numbers. It is waking up one morning, not too far into the future, to the news that Qantas has failed. There will be no explicit warning, the unbridled BS will continue right up to the point of business failure.

[dr dre]

It looks like the war may be over:

Qantas puts freeze on domestic growth

[Vorsicht]

Virgin battle breaking Qantas' domestic strategy

Has Eileen finally capitulated?
Has the board finally seen the light?
Can we all start looking forward to an industry that isn't self destructing?

[1A_Please]

Has Eileen finally capitulated?
Has the board finally seen the light?
Can we all start looking forward to an industry that isn't self destructing?

I don't know that this is the end of the war but it is definitely the beginning of the end.

Finally, it appears that someone has woken up that the S-curve needs to go down the s-bend. It was always dubious economics based on a decades old theory that pre-dated LCCs.

The money that QF has wasted in this exercise has been staggering. I have long believed that allowing the market to settle as a cosy duopoly wth QF having between 50 and 55% market share will generate huge profits for both QF and VA. Chasing a market that doesn't exist with wasted capacity has been madness. A decent board would make the CEO and his cronies walk the plank.

[Ollie Onion]

To be honest, I am sick to death of these Ben Sandiland articles. I dont know his background by he does seem to have a bit of a bias against Qantas. He used to have quite informative articles but has recently morphed into a ranting fool. His dribble written about Jetstar NZ and Air New Zealand is a total load of tosh. If he had done any research he would have found out that instead of his stated 'Air NZ has been able to charge more' they have infact overall reduced their fares significantly in response to Jetstar's pricing structure. This article was about how 'BUSINESS' traveler's still prefer to use Air NZ and are willing to pay more to do so. I don't see why this would be of any surprise to anyone. Air NZ has more frequency, lounges etc which is more attractive to a business person. Despite this Jetstar NZ still attracts around 20% of its custom from business customers which is better than most low cost carriers. He states that Jetstar NZ struggles to fill seats at $100, why then are its load factors in the the 80's, better than Air NZ. He takes a swipe at the checkin agent who 'decked' the radio host without pointing out that it was in fact the radio host that assaulted a female member of staff and the result was another staff member putting a swift end to that situation. The radio host court case was thrown out and in fact he was charged by the police. Come on BEN, don't twist the facts to meet your own self serving anti Qantas agenda, you are quickly losing all credibility you built up with some very good reporting in the past when you stuck to the facts.

[UnderneathTheRadar]

65% line in the sand gone

Online news websites tonight are reporting "Qantas blinks first in Virgin capacity battle, with domestic capactity freeze".


Quoting from the Age:

The airline on Wednesday told investors total domestic capacity growth, including Qantas, QantasLink and Jetstar, would be ''zero in each of the first three months of financial year 2015 compared with the prior corresponding period''.

Read more: Qantas blinks first in Virgin battle, with domestic capacity freeze

As well as this, the article indicates that the word 'total' is key - and so mainline may sink at the cost of J*.

A variety of comment pieces about AJs foolish war and capitulation marks another PR success......

[Capt Basil Brush]

Jetstar 787 service from Brisbane to Bali is bleeding big time with sub 100 passenger loads being the norm.

I was wondering how that was going to go? I think the fact that Garuda re-entered the route with a 738 instead of a wide body indicated that the route didn't support a wide body aircraft. Apparently VA are not even considering A330 flights to DPS from any Australian port, and going with more frequency instead.

[TIMA9X]

To be honest, I am sick to death of these Ben Sandiland articles.

You are entitled to your opinion Ollie, In Ben's defence, he is probably tired of the antics from AJ & his management team.. Out of all the aviation journalists, Ben has stuck his neck on the block in support of the Qantas staff.

As I see it, Ben is not anti Qantas but anti the current management team and their cheerleaders continually twisting the facts to suit their agenda, (whatever that is) you know, that transformation process we all keep hearing about, which so far has only transformed the frog back to being just that, a frog, still no sight of the promised Prince.. and how much have they paid the little fella so far for this frog that won't change, $30 million...? expensive for a magicians act that keeps going wrong, now looking for more assistants to saw in half until he gets it right...

http://youtu.be/czro0qB72Ng

As pointed out by UTR in the above post, the mainstream media are waking up as well. Qantas blinks first in Virgin battle, with domestic capacity freeze

and where do you think that headline may have come from?

Qantas blinks in war with Virgin. What happens next? | Plane Talking

Commentary
Having walked away from the critical importance of its credit ratings, which Qantas lost early this year, its group CEO Alan Joyce has now retreated from the importance of maintaining a 65 percent domestic market share.
In an analysis by John Durie in The Australian Joyce says:

“Our overall market share is around 63 per cent in the domestic market — it varies up and down. “We have never been focused on … our issue has never been … I think people have misinterpreted where we were with the 65 per cent market share.

The current domestic share is approximately 64 percent and it has in recent years dipped briefly at times down to around 63 percent.
However read Durie’s article in full. It’s always worth the paywall, and makes the important claim that when Qantas decided to cut back its capacity growth to zero percent in the first quarter of FY15 it had already seen a signal (my word) from Virgin Australia.
Mr Joyce is entitled to make core and non core claims about matters for which he is responsible. It’s almost fashionable in political life at present to give differing priorities to various levels of veracity, or interpretation, as he puts it.
However we ought to keep in mind the things that don’t matter nearly as much to Qantas as they used to.
The credit ratings, nah, Qantas expected that. What’s an extra $100 million of so in higher finance cost?
The idle brand new Jetstar A320s for routes it has failed to secure? Just operational spares, never mind the continuing lease, parking, finance and other fixed cost charges, and hey, must as much a problem for Stanley Ho in Macau and Japan Airlines as partners in the various ventures.
They must be feeling so relaxed about that.

Qantas group CEO Joyce says 65% line 'misinterpreted' | Plane Talking

The cynics will wonder if Joyce is also offering some positive news to cushion investors against what may be a poorer than expected result for the full year. The market is already expecting losses of around half a billion for the current financial year.
Qantas is one stock some investment banks have suggested could disappoint in 2014.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/a-war...#ixzz32Mur6SHN

No doubt about it, the word is out, not just on Ben's blog, and testimony to why this thread is now over a million hits.

[Angle of Attack]

Ben is just stating the facts, after all in AJ's entire time as CEO he has talked a lot but basically done nothing and shown no direction. A few little cabin adjustments there, a few new lounges here, an EK tie up that is a disaster.... and thats it!

Conductor, I think you hit the nail on the head, I honestly believe there is a probable chance of QF going tits up suddenly in the next year or 2 unless there is a complete change in the whole group starting from the top down, not this bull$hit restructuring from about the 3rd or 4th level down only taking place atm. You need to pop the pimple from the head not the base, or the infection spreads....

[Ollie Onion]

But that's my point, Ben's hatred of Qantas (read current Qantas management) has turned what used to be a good blog into just a Qantas Group bashing blog where he is being very loose with the facts to create a sensationalist headline.

[Sunfish]

Ollie, after reading Bens article I don't think "hatred of Qantas" has anything to do with it. If anything, Ben understates the difficulty of the Qantas current situation in my opinion.

Furthermore, the current deafening silence from Qantas is telling.

My reading of Mr. Hickeys comments is a breath of reality may be starting to blow through the halls. Old technology fully depreciated airliners are, as he says, very profitable. Spares are cheap and easy to come by, most of the bugs and maintenance issues are known and fixed. There is plenty of trained tech. staff. The only issue is fuel burn.

But apart from that, I think Mr. Hickey realises that Qantas can not afford new aircraft just now and his comments sound suspiciously to me like Qantas is about to go into "lifeboat" mode.

My guess is that Qantas is going to have to acknowledge reality or go under and that the next Board meeting is going to be critical. At that meeting, and I am guessing, a restructure plan has to be approved or Directors are going to have to consider walking because there are severe penalties for Directors if a company is found to have been trading while insolvent.

My guess is that the restructure will involve the closure or sale of Jetstar, or possibly amalgamating it with Domestic and International and abandonment of the pretence that anything Jetstar does is, or ever has been, profitable. Alan will announce his resignation as well.

[VH-Cheer Up]

Pity you can't buy a place in the gallery for the board meetings. I bet they would get a better than 65% load factor for those seats!

[VH-Cheer Up]

But apart from that, I think Mr. Hickey realises that Qantas can not afford new aircraft just now and his comments sound suspiciously to me like Qantas is about to go into "lifeboat" mode.

So how have they afforded new 787s for Jetstar and to park A320s around Asian airports?

[Australopithecus]

Closing Jetstar? Hmmm.

I thought that there would be a contraction in the domestic operation and elimination of the international division. (But perhaps they could make a go of a few "Jetstar Generation" (bogan plus) destinations. Bali, etc)

It is difficult imagining anyone buying Jetstar after due diligence.

Anyway Sunfish, I hope your crystal ball has been tuned up recently, because your prediction is music to a lot of ears around here.

[Sunfish]

Australopithicus, Qantas can't close international without destroying itself.

Why?

Because Qantas International IS the brand!

For generations, Australians have seen that big red tail B747 flying overhead and they recall their own first overseas trip and it unlocks a very powerful set of memories.

for many it was the Kangaroo route to London when they were in their early Twenties. It brings back fond memories of Earls court, the Tower of London, and the friends and escapades of their youth. I also remember that incredible feeling of relief when travelling abroad when one boarded the Qantas B747 and heard an Australian accent for the first time in weeks and was handed an Australian beer. That is the powerful set of emotions the "I still call Australia home" advertising campaign tapped into.

Without international there is no Qantas, period. Nobody remembers domestic flights, We try and forget them as quickly as possible.

To put that another way, I have a very young friend who is on her first trip to Europe. I am bombarded daily with the Eiffel Tower, the Trevi fountain, the Gaudi Cathedral, etc. she is never going to forget this including the airline she flew with which is part of the whole experience.....and she flew Emirates the whole way.

[1A_Please]

My guess is that the restructure will involve the closure or sale of Jetstar, or possibly amalgamating it with Domestic

I doubt JQ will be sold though amalgamating it with mainline domestic is very possible (though keeping 2 brands). This would suit the Board hugely who could use the merged JQ to drive down mainline domestic costs.

Whatever happens, I fear int'l is going to go through a world of pain. Hopefully what comes out the other side is worth it.

(read current Qantas management) has turned what used to be a good blog into just a Qantas Group bashing blog where he is being very loose with the facts to create a sensationalist headline.

The current QF management deserves little or no respect. Their performance has been abysmal and Ben has been one journalist not afraid to say it...maybe because he hasn't got a Chairmans Lounge membership to lose.

[V-Jet]

she is never going to forget this including the airline she flew with which is part of the whole experience.....and she flew Emirates the whole way.

But she might have bought that ticket through Qantas.com - so the whole great experience will be put down to Qantas, especially when those words 'and we would like to thank our code share partners, Qantas' that tug at the heart strings so strongly are heard on ever sector

You have to admire the thinking!

[Spey]

Originally Posted by V-Jet

so the whole great experience will be put down to Qantas, especially when those words 'and we would like to thank our code share partners, Qantas' that tug at the heart strings so strongly are heard on ever sector

Flew Emirates to Europe over Christmas. 6 flights and not on any of them was QF mentioned on any announcement, not 1.