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MERGED: Alan's still not happy......

Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific Airline and RPT Rumours & News in Australia, enZed and the Pacific

MERGED: Alan's still not happy......

Old 9th Jan 2014, 01:26
  #1581 (permalink)  
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Inside their OODA loop
Posts: 242
I will repeat it until I am hoarse...

Bruce gave the gameplan away in 2011; they want to operate up to 400 aircraft in Asia by 2020. Domestic cashflow will siphoned to support this growth.

International simply isn't in their model, and must be reduced to the rump of A380's 747-ER's. They would get rid of it completely if they could.

Jetstar to invest $470m in Singapore hub

Date July 18, 2011

He said that the company is aiming to maintain a 20 per cent share of the Asia Pacific low-cost carrier market and might need to have as much as 400 aircraft by 2020.

"The total (fleet size of) the low-cost carrier market (in Asia-Pacific) is about 450 aircraft today and we envisage it to grow to in excess of 2000 aircraft by the end of the decade," he said on the sideline of a media briefing in Singapore.

"To maintain 20 per cent market share by 2020, we need about 400 aircraft," Buchanan added without elaborating when the carrier will start making orders of those aircraft.
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Old 9th Jan 2014, 02:29
  #1582 (permalink)  
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Australia
Posts: 545
Joyce vision - Riverside Hotel BNE 2003

Integrated denominator model .... any aircraft, any crew, anywhere, anytime .....

(true clarity however lies in which 'denominator' is being integrated .... suggest it should be preceded by the word 'decending')

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Old 9th Jan 2014, 02:31
  #1583 (permalink)  
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 7,474
THis drive into Asia - utter, complete and total madness. My father was an old Asia hand and he traded in the East for Fifty years. You have to have balls of steel, invest a huge amount of time in personal relationships for maybe Ten years with no return and even then there is no guarantee, there were some markets where we tried and tried but could never get into.

Asia is littered with failed joint ventures and the bones of Western companies who tried to make money out of Asia. The story is always the same: "Huge growth opportunities", the Chinese then encourage you to invest down to your last shirt button in Asian based infrastructure and capital equipment, then there are "holdups", then the market potential doesn't live up to expectations, then a local competitor suddenly appears who makes a product uncannily like yours, you can't seem to make a profit, then you run out of money and your joint venture partner offers to buy you out for a song.

To make money out of Asia, you need a product that cannot be copied so that the Chinese have absolutely no option but to come to you. That means trade secrets, massively protected IP and handcuffed staff who cannot be bought. There is nothing Qantas can possibly bring to China that the Chinese aren't perfectly capable of doing themselves if they want to. There is zero competitive advantage for Qantas.

The Chinese will watch Qantas try and build their LCC model and if they succeed, the Chinese will simply copy it, then place regulatory hurdles in the way of Qantas ever repatriating a dollar to Australia.

No Westerner ever gets to make a dollar out of the Middle Kingdom if it can be helped!!!
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Old 9th Jan 2014, 03:20
  #1584 (permalink)  
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Sydney
Age: 61
Posts: 332
I read a good book last weekend and came across a couple of lines and thought of AJ.

"If you are annoyed, then you are not thinking about the game at hand. An angry mind does not play good chess."

With a response of,

"An angry mind does not do anything well. Many a king has lost his kingdom because of decisions made in anger."

Hopefully he loses his kingdom soon because of the decisions he has made of late.

I wonder how angry he gets when he is provided with his daily update from PPRuNe?
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Old 9th Jan 2014, 03:45
  #1585 (permalink)  
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Tasmania
Posts: 59
I really doubt that AJ gets a daily PPRuNe update or that he really gives a toss what we or anyone else thinks for that matter!! I know we'd all like to think that what we post is important or might make a difference....
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Old 9th Jan 2014, 04:23
  #1586 (permalink)  
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 704
I doubt Alan give's a leprechaun's arse about what is said on PPRuNe.

Which is a pity, because some of the best free advice in the industry is resident on this forum. Knowing which bits, ah, that's another thing...
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Old 9th Jan 2014, 08:22
  #1587 (permalink)  
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: germany
Posts: 22
What has happened to the aviation industry in Australia is indeed shocking. Just a short few years ago, suitably qualified staff were rare enough and a person could nearly pick and choose from a range of companies. From the regs side of things, the old system was still in place and if you were a LAME with one airframe type, you'd pick up work easily. Nowadays the market is flooded with qualified LAMES all of a sudden, and even if you are someone typed up to the hilt, you are stuck with agencies that offer no sick pay, or airline staff perks etc. You can also be expected to be treated like a piece of furniture, which is fine short term but difficult to sustain if one has a family.
It seems obvious that airlines lobby with authorities to save money, but now it seems engineering staff have become a luxury or perhaps hinderence in some cases, rather than an essential part of airline operation. A real shame because Australia is a fine place to live and people are prepared to work hard given the opportunity

I certainly don't agree with what Joyce is doing, and feel he should have been kicked out long ago, but the way the whole industry has gone could not be down to one man surely.
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Old 9th Jan 2014, 08:56
  #1588 (permalink)  
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: S33E151
Posts: 865
Never has so much been owed by so few, to so many.

And I am convinced it is a very, very, VERY few.
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Old 9th Jan 2014, 08:59
  #1589 (permalink)  
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: germany
Posts: 22
Owed financially or morally?
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Old 9th Jan 2014, 09:10
  #1590 (permalink)  
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: S33E151
Posts: 865
Both, but primarily financially.

Managerial cretins making billions out of hard, very hard and intelligent workers who want nothing but the best for 'The Company'.

Politically I would have nothing in common with Steve P and 'the Unions'. I sit to the right of Gehngis Kahn. But by god I wish he had had a powerful board seat on QF in the last few years. It could have all been so different.
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Old 9th Jan 2014, 10:02
  #1591 (permalink)  
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 468
Change was inevitable for LAME's in the airline industry, but not as dramatic as we have seen recent times.
Nor have we seen before, such a compliant regulator to the airlines wishes by undermining safe practices and become reliant on the design of newer and more complex aircraft.
Joyce and co. want blind monkeys to carry out the work of engineers and pilots and apparently think that all the flying public is OK with that. Strangely enough, I think a good chunk might be.
I have never before seen a company so set on dominating its staff that it is prepared to sacrifice customers in the process by grounding the airline, NO MATTER WHAT IT COSTS (the shareholders)

There is nothing Qantas can possibly bring to China that the Chinese aren't perfectly capable of doing themselves if they want to. There is zero competitive advantage for Qantas.
Sunfish is right again, and this insight is just the tip of the iceberg for business being done in Asia.
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Old 9th Jan 2014, 10:05
  #1592 (permalink)  
Join Date: May 2002
Location: o.b
Posts: 21
Good point Sunfish. I think you've hit the nail on the head!
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Old 9th Jan 2014, 10:24
  #1593 (permalink)  
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: S33E151
Posts: 865
No. I disagree. The Chinese can't replicate 'Shrimps on the barbie'.

They can replicate everything BGA and his cohort of incompetents have given them but not 'Australia' - and that is what Qantas was (hopefully might be in the future).

He has sold our nations spirit and a very unique selling/differentiating point in the market - for ten pieces of silver.

I think that is what gets me the most. He did not value what was valuable - to thousands of current and past employees who have given their all over 100ish years just so that he could have an extra floor and parking space on his Rocks apartment.
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Old 9th Jan 2014, 11:45
  #1594 (permalink)  
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Fliegensville, Gold Coast Australia
Posts: 35
" Politically I would have nothing in common with Steve P and 'the Unions'. I sit to the right of Gehngis Kahn. But by god I wish he had had a powerful board seat on QF in the last few years. It could have all been so different."

So very true!!!....but now you have Abbott and Co., and that allows Clifford and the Leprechaun, the whole board for that matter to a huge Sigh of collective relief....shutting down the airline was a great kick in the teeth to the government of the day.....there are favours owed, and to be called upon in due course by both sides methinks.....a lot for Clifford, Joyce, the LNP and the like to be gained here.....from the likes of you.......as a result of their actions..not pretty
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Old 9th Jan 2014, 15:01
  #1595 (permalink)  
Join Date: Apr 1998
Location: Mesopotamos
Posts: 1,260
Since the mid 90's I've seen a fair few major companies operating in Australia do the "grow into the Asian market", "awake the sleeping Tiger" hype thing primarily to dupe the shareholders into buying more of their stock. It all sounds so rosy in their glossy prospectus - uncharted territory ripe for exploitation, growing consumer demand, a logical next step, have to be a part of this opportunity. But their ability to be successful in this venture has often only ever proved to be just a figment of their imaginations.
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Old 9th Jan 2014, 18:02
  #1596 (permalink)  
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: London-Thailand-Australia
Age: 10
Posts: 1,057
OTHER ADDITIONAL JQ franchises in Asia are being put on hold as they concentrate on JQ Japan & Hong Kong.

I believe this is why so many other A320's are on order. For offer JQ franchises in Asia yet to be announced.

Just like having aircraft ready to go for JQ Hong Kong. They have ordered aircraft for other ventures yet to materialise in Asia.

Just returned today from HK, noted this story today in the South China Morning Post, I found it also interesting reading the side stories related to Jetstar HK in the link..

Jetstar Hong Kong chief executive Edward Lau and chairman Pansy Ho still await approval of the carrier's application for an operating licence. Photo: Felix Wong

Jetstar Hong Kong has grounded seven brand new Airbus 320 planes owing to the prolonged delay in obtaining an operating licence in Hong Kong, people familiar with the situation said.

The joint venture between Qantas, China Eastern Airlines and Hong Kong-based transportation and property firm Shun Tak had planned to begin operating by the middle of last year, then delayed the start to the end of the year.

It is uncertain how long it will take for its application to be approved, but the low-cost carrier now plans to launch its services some time this year.
Jetstar Hong Kong filed the application to the Air Transport Licensing Authority, (Atla), in August after the Hong Kong government froze all applications by carriers for more than six months for a review of the licensing requirements.

The application triggered objections from Cathay Pacific Airways, Dragonair and two other local carriers, which said Jetstar Hong Kong did not qualify as a Hong Kong carrier under the Basic Law.
Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying is reviewing the application, and either way, the outcome could end up in court.

“As Jetstar Hong Kong is still progressing through the regulatory process, the board is evaluating options to manage their fleet in the short term, with a small number of aircraft currently in Toulouse [a production base for Airbus],” a spokeswoman from Jetstar said, declining to reveal that number.
Sources close to Jetstar Hong Kong said seven aircraft of which it had taken delivery remained parked in Toulouse, and two more would be grounded by June.

“We are now choosing an aircraft leasing company to arrange a sale and lease-back on some parked aircraft in order to mitigate our financial burden,” the sources said.
That means the carrier would sell the aircraft to the leasing company and lease them back for operations.

It costs about US$400,000 per month to lease an A320. The carrier would also have to bear an unspecified one-time cost for not taking the planes on schedule, as well as parking fees in Toulouse.
The registered capital for Jetstar Hong Kong is US$198 million, split evenly among the three shareholders.

The carrier aims to acquire 18 A320 planes in three years for a planned network spanning mainland China and Southeast Asia. It has promised to offer tickets at prices at least 50 per cent lower than those of existing operators.

Meanwhile, Jetstar Hong Kong’s embattled stakeholder Qantas had its credit rating downgraded to junk by Moody’s Investors Service yesterday.

Jetstar Hong Kong grounds 7 new Airbus planes as licence approval delayed | South China Morning Post

There has been more than usual media coverage in Asia on the Qantas/Jetstar saga in all the mainstream English newspapers the past 24 hours, appears to be a lot of interest here... many stories well and truly peculating around HK, SIN etc..
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Old 9th Jan 2014, 20:00
  #1597 (permalink)  
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: In a House on earth
Posts: 41
Notice Qantas has a credit rating of "JUNK STATUS" what a lovely thing for the board to contemplate, real leadership that is.
Flying Trades Person is offline  
Old 9th Jan 2014, 20:13
  #1598 (permalink)  
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 7,474
Once the sharks smell Qantas blood in the water, it won't take very long. My guess is that if Jetstar succeed in sale and leaseback of those parked aircraft it will be on horrific terms that will destroy profitability permanently. Deep discount on sale price and very high monthly charges.

If Qantas succeeds in extricating itself from Hong Kong, they will be very glad they only ordered 18 aircraft and not 118 for Asia.
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Old 9th Jan 2014, 20:58
  #1599 (permalink)  
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Somewhere on the Australian Coast
Posts: 867
Ironic that the non-compliant media in the SAR of a putatively Communist nation may be a better source of info than the compliant media in Australia's free and open democracy. What a sad indictment.
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Old 10th Jan 2014, 01:31
  #1600 (permalink)  
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Singapore
Posts: 271
Straits Times humiliates Qantas

Did The Straits Times of Singapore mean the irony in the placement of their ads?

Moodys downgrades Qantas to junk - Make it a year to remember with Emirates!

Last edited by DrPepz; 10th Jan 2014 at 01:50. Reason: Link didn't appear properly
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