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MERGED: Alan's still not happy......

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MERGED: Alan's still not happy......

Old 21st May 2014, 13:25
  #4221 (permalink)  
 
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Jetstar 787 service from Brisbane to Bali is bleeding big time with sub 100 passenger loads being the norm.
I was wondering how that was going to go? I think the fact that Garuda re-entered the route with a 738 instead of a wide body indicated that the route didn't support a wide body aircraft. Apparently VA are not even considering A330 flights to DPS from any Australian port, and going with more frequency instead.
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Old 21st May 2014, 14:31
  #4222 (permalink)  
 
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To be honest, I am sick to death of these Ben Sandiland articles.
You are entitled to your opinion Ollie, In Ben's defence, he is probably tired of the antics from AJ & his management team.. Out of all the aviation journalists, Ben has stuck his neck on the block in support of the Qantas staff.

As I see it, Ben is not anti Qantas but anti the current management team and their cheerleaders continually twisting the facts to suit their agenda, (whatever that is) you know, that transformation process we all keep hearing about, which so far has only transformed the frog back to being just that, a frog, still no sight of the promised Prince.. and how much have they paid the little fella so far for this frog that won't change, $30 million...? expensive for a magicians act that keeps going wrong, now looking for more assistants to saw in half until he gets it right...

http://youtu.be/czro0qB72Ng

As pointed out by UTR in the above post, the mainstream media are waking up as well. Qantas blinks first in Virgin battle, with domestic capacity freeze

and where do you think that headline may have come from?

Qantas blinks in war with Virgin. What happens next? | Plane Talking


Commentary
Having walked away from the critical importance of its credit ratings, which Qantas lost early this year, its group CEO Alan Joyce has now retreated from the importance of maintaining a 65 percent domestic market share.
In an analysis by John Durie in The Australian Joyce says:
“Our overall market share is around 63 per cent in the domestic market — it varies up and down. “We have never been focused on … our issue has never been … I think people have misinterpreted where we were with the 65 per cent market share.
The current domestic share is approximately 64 percent and it has in recent years dipped briefly at times down to around 63 percent.
However read Durie’s article in full. It’s always worth the paywall, and makes the important claim that when Qantas decided to cut back its capacity growth to zero percent in the first quarter of FY15 it had already seen a signal (my word) from Virgin Australia.
Mr Joyce is entitled to make core and non core claims about matters for which he is responsible. It’s almost fashionable in political life at present to give differing priorities to various levels of veracity, or interpretation, as he puts it.
However we ought to keep in mind the things that don’t matter nearly as much to Qantas as they used to.
The credit ratings, nah, Qantas expected that. What’s an extra $100 million of so in higher finance cost?
The idle brand new Jetstar A320s for routes it has failed to secure? Just operational spares, never mind the continuing lease, parking, finance and other fixed cost charges, and hey, must as much a problem for Stanley Ho in Macau and Japan Airlines as partners in the various ventures.
They must be feeling so relaxed about that.

Qantas group CEO Joyce says 65% line 'misinterpreted' | Plane Talking

The cynics will wonder if Joyce is also offering some positive news to cushion investors against what may be a poorer than expected result for the full year. The market is already expecting losses of around half a billion for the current financial year.
Qantas is one stock some investment banks have suggested could disappoint in 2014.
No doubt about it, the word is out, not just on Ben's blog, and testimony to why this thread is now over a million hits.

Last edited by TIMA9X; 21st May 2014 at 17:34.
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Old 21st May 2014, 14:49
  #4223 (permalink)  
 
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Ben is just stating the facts, after all in AJ's entire time as CEO he has talked a lot but basically done nothing and shown no direction. A few little cabin adjustments there, a few new lounges here, an EK tie up that is a disaster.... and thats it!

Conductor, I think you hit the nail on the head, I honestly believe there is a probable chance of QF going tits up suddenly in the next year or 2 unless there is a complete change in the whole group starting from the top down, not this bull$hit restructuring from about the 3rd or 4th level down only taking place atm. You need to pop the pimple from the head not the base, or the infection spreads....
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Old 21st May 2014, 19:09
  #4224 (permalink)  
 
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But that's my point, Ben's hatred of Qantas (read current Qantas management) has turned what used to be a good blog into just a Qantas Group bashing blog where he is being very loose with the facts to create a sensationalist headline.
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Old 21st May 2014, 23:07
  #4225 (permalink)  
 
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Ollie, after reading Bens article I don't think "hatred of Qantas" has anything to do with it. If anything, Ben understates the difficulty of the Qantas current situation in my opinion.

Furthermore, the current deafening silence from Qantas is telling.

My reading of Mr. Hickeys comments is a breath of reality may be starting to blow through the halls. Old technology fully depreciated airliners are, as he says, very profitable. Spares are cheap and easy to come by, most of the bugs and maintenance issues are known and fixed. There is plenty of trained tech. staff. The only issue is fuel burn.

But apart from that, I think Mr. Hickey realises that Qantas can not afford new aircraft just now and his comments sound suspiciously to me like Qantas is about to go into "lifeboat" mode.

My guess is that Qantas is going to have to acknowledge reality or go under and that the next Board meeting is going to be critical. At that meeting, and I am guessing, a restructure plan has to be approved or Directors are going to have to consider walking because there are severe penalties for Directors if a company is found to have been trading while insolvent.

My guess is that the restructure will involve the closure or sale of Jetstar, or possibly amalgamating it with Domestic and International and abandonment of the pretence that anything Jetstar does is, or ever has been, profitable. Alan will announce his resignation as well.
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Old 21st May 2014, 23:11
  #4226 (permalink)  
 
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Pity you can't buy a place in the gallery for the board meetings. I bet they would get a better than 65% load factor for those seats!
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Old 21st May 2014, 23:13
  #4227 (permalink)  
 
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But apart from that, I think Mr. Hickey realises that Qantas can not afford new aircraft just now and his comments sound suspiciously to me like Qantas is about to go into "lifeboat" mode.
So how have they afforded new 787s for Jetstar and to park A320s around Asian airports?
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Old 21st May 2014, 23:22
  #4228 (permalink)  
 
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Closing Jetstar? Hmmm.

I thought that there would be a contraction in the domestic operation and elimination of the international division. (But perhaps they could make a go of a few "Jetstar Generation" (bogan plus) destinations. Bali, etc)

It is difficult imagining anyone buying Jetstar after due diligence.

Anyway Sunfish, I hope your crystal ball has been tuned up recently, because your prediction is music to a lot of ears around here.
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Old 22nd May 2014, 00:31
  #4229 (permalink)  
 
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Australopithicus, Qantas can't close international without destroying itself.

Why?

Because Qantas International IS the brand!

For generations, Australians have seen that big red tail B747 flying overhead and they recall their own first overseas trip and it unlocks a very powerful set of memories.

for many it was the Kangaroo route to London when they were in their early Twenties. It brings back fond memories of Earls court, the Tower of London, and the friends and escapades of their youth. I also remember that incredible feeling of relief when travelling abroad when one boarded the Qantas B747 and heard an Australian accent for the first time in weeks and was handed an Australian beer. That is the powerful set of emotions the "I still call Australia home" advertising campaign tapped into.

Without international there is no Qantas, period. Nobody remembers domestic flights, We try and forget them as quickly as possible.

To put that another way, I have a very young friend who is on her first trip to Europe. I am bombarded daily with the Eiffel Tower, the Trevi fountain, the Gaudi Cathedral, etc. she is never going to forget this including the airline she flew with which is part of the whole experience.....and she flew Emirates the whole way.
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Old 22nd May 2014, 00:33
  #4230 (permalink)  
 
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My guess is that the restructure will involve the closure or sale of Jetstar, or possibly amalgamating it with Domestic
I doubt JQ will be sold though amalgamating it with mainline domestic is very possible (though keeping 2 brands). This would suit the Board hugely who could use the merged JQ to drive down mainline domestic costs.

Whatever happens, I fear int'l is going to go through a world of pain. Hopefully what comes out the other side is worth it.

(read current Qantas management) has turned what used to be a good blog into just a Qantas Group bashing blog where he is being very loose with the facts to create a sensationalist headline.
The current QF management deserves little or no respect. Their performance has been abysmal and Ben has been one journalist not afraid to say it...maybe because he hasn't got a Chairmans Lounge membership to lose.
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Old 22nd May 2014, 00:43
  #4231 (permalink)  
 
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she is never going to forget this including the airline she flew with which is part of the whole experience.....and she flew Emirates the whole way.
But she might have bought that ticket through Qantas.com - so the whole great experience will be put down to Qantas, especially when those words 'and we would like to thank our code share partners, Qantas' that tug at the heart strings so strongly are heard on ever sector

You have to admire the thinking!
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Old 22nd May 2014, 01:01
  #4232 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by V-Jet View Post
so the whole great experience will be put down to Qantas, especially when those words 'and we would like to thank our code share partners, Qantas' that tug at the heart strings so strongly are heard on ever sector
Flew Emirates to Europe over Christmas. 6 flights and not on any of them was QF mentioned on any announcement, not 1.
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Old 22nd May 2014, 01:12
  #4233 (permalink)  
 
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I flew them within the M.E. recently and they mentioned Qantas codeshare and Qantas SkyWards program members (Its Qantas Frequent Flyer not Qantas SkyWards).
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Old 22nd May 2014, 01:16
  #4234 (permalink)  
 
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Wild Goose: Why don't they do it?
(a) Strikes are not fashionable for the public. Staff lose PR battle.
(b) Strikers do not run the company. Is there a safety issue? No. Is there an issue with compensation? Yes, but nothing worth striking over.
(c) The company is going downhill. Striking workers will just exacerbate the issue and provide a convenient point of blame for the incompetence of others.
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Old 22nd May 2014, 01:31
  #4235 (permalink)  
 
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I agree with Sunfish. Qantas management would be mad to close international. It is Qantas. A huge part of Qantas Domestic's success is on-carriage. Take away International and the whole lot crumbles. However, decisions emanating from the Qantas board room no longer hold any surprise. The surprise would be if something sensible came out of there. I'm fully expecting a renewed focus on Jetstar, further cutbacks with International and a lase faire attitude to idle aircraft in Asia.
My tip for what it's worth: Watch those idle Asian aircraft. If they get approval to operate in Asia, then well and good for a while. If they start moving en masse back to Australia, a financial announcement won't be far behind. If Qantas doesn't relocate those aircraft prior to going belly up, anyone trying to recover funds will never get them out of Asia.
Another observation for what it's worth: many years ago, Boeing did its research and established that the passenger of the future is looking for frequency in air travel and hub busting capabilities. Airbus decided to focus on the A380. Airbus wanted the biggest in comparing members. It's obvious which philosophy Qantas decided to emulate.
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Old 22nd May 2014, 01:32
  #4236 (permalink)  
 
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Sunfish...sorry, I was rushing through my post. I meant to write Jetstar domestic being curtailed, and Jetstar International being shut down.

The group executives might look past their blind ideology to see that the group redundancy payments could be minimised by making redundant the cheapest surplus staff of the group. And focusing on the aspect of the group that returns the highest revenues. ****

There is a reason that the rest of the industry cannot make a LCC subsidiary work. Time to face facts and kill off either the child or the parent.

****relax, Jetstar guys. It'll never happen.
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Old 22nd May 2014, 01:47
  #4237 (permalink)  
 
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Lets not forget CEO and Board in that culling process or it will just be more of the same and even greater losses.
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Old 22nd May 2014, 02:00
  #4238 (permalink)  
 
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I was being facetious.... If crew don't listen to PA's then why would passengers??
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Old 22nd May 2014, 02:01
  #4239 (permalink)  
 
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Industrial Action

wild goose,

Industrial action is governed by the Fair Work Act. Here is an excerpt from the Fair Work Australia website

Unlawful industrial action

Industrial action is unlawful if itís engaged in when thereís an enterprise agreement in place that covers the employee, employer or employee organisation that hasnít passed its nominal expiry date.

The Fair work Commission must suspend or stop any unlawful action. Court orders can also be used to enforce this.

Consequences of unlawful action
If you take part in unlawful industrial action, some individuals or organisations can take court action against you. These individuals or organisations include:

anyone covered by the enterprise agreement who is affected by the action
anyone else who is affected by the action (e.g. a business that lost money because it couldnít get hold of goods it needed)
the Fair Work Ombudsman (us).
The court can order you to pay either or both:

compensation for losses
fines.


The ability to strike in Australia has been all but eliminated with virtually unlimited liability on any person or organisation that takes part.

obira
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Old 22nd May 2014, 04:09
  #4240 (permalink)  
 
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Qantas has long complained about an uneven playing field. Manny have ' poo-pooped ' (?) suggestions that they have unfair competition. There an illuminating story in the Business section of smh.com.au . Here's a redacted teaser:

......... Airways received massive financial support from the royal family of .......... contrary to long-standing denials, documents obtained by Fairfax Media show.
The state-owned airline had access to a secret, interest-free $US3 billion ($3.3 billion) loan from the ........ ruling family that required no repayments until 2027, according to documents prepared for prospective financiers.
Perhaps we now know why certain investments are able to be made with gay abandon. And why AJ is indeed unhappy!
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