QF Shares hit $1.00 Discuss

[gobbledock]

This OCT could get nasty with Spain at 25 percent unemployment and hurting and a reporting season potentially full of worse than expected results and credit downgrades for a host of Australian companies.

Spain and Italy's interest payments are due in October, and Greece and Portugal also have some payments due later this year also.

We are riding the fringe of a perfect storm, it hasn't kicked in yet and don't be fooled. Cast your mind back to the year 1914. By April that year things were looking better than they had been for a number of years. All was good indeed.
Then, June 28 and Ferdinand..............the rest as they say is history.
Don't be blinded by rose colored glasses.

[dr dre]

This OCT could get nasty with Spain at 25 percent unemployment and hurting and a reporting season potentially full of worse than expected results and credit downgrades for a host of Australian companies.

Can I ask why these global factors will only affect QAN, and not the likes of VBA et al? Surely worsening european and international conditions will affect both groups, considering now a miniscule proportion of QF ops are directed to Europe (and london as well)

[gobbledock]

Can I ask why these global factors will only affect QAN,

Of course others will be affected. But this is a QAN thread so we are funneling our discussion into QF.

[FlexibleResponse]

Could it be the intention of senior management to run the share price into the ground so as to allow a "private" third party to takeover Qantas shares at minimum cost thereby defrauding the current shareholders the fair value of their shares?

Management could always blame intransigent and greedy union officials and workers for the failure of Qantas to remain competitive and thereby justify management's and the board's recommendation to the now poor shareholders to accept the takeover bid when it inevitably arrives...

Son of "Project Suzie" is coming back for revenge..?

Alas, all the other so called "issues" are a smoke screen for the real agenda.

http://www.pprune.org/dg-p-reporting...ml#post6537182

I generally don't believe in conspiracy theories...but where greed is involved, there is no depth to which some people won't sink.

[wilcoleaks]

If the economy has a "shakeout" over the next 18 months, no one would want to be at the helm of QF, especially someone new.

I think he will be there a while yet.

[catch18]

If virgin post a profit and QF post a loss bigger than expected and also cop a credit downgrade I would expect the share price differential to close to something like QF 80c, Virgin 60c by year end.

If Emirates wanted a deal - it would be done by now.

[Wedcue]

Taken from vflight.net, Virgin's EBA update...


The company must continue to maintain its cost competitive advantage over Qantas and not price itself out of the market. Parity with QF salaries is not sustainable;
The Company’s biggest threat is Jetstar which is being used as the QF growth vehicle now and into the future;

[porch monkey]

VA doesn't have pay parity with QF, and even if the EBA gave the boys their wish list, they still wouldn't. It's a reminder from the management that the earlier rhetoric re valued employees was just that, management rhetoric.

[Servo]

Well said Porch Monkey and VERY true.

[CaptCloudbuster]

3 simple things

The Virgin CEO needed to implement 3 simple initiatives to raise then hold pilot engagement.

1 New professional uniform. Check. The initial euphoria has waned and this is seen as more for JBs benefit than crew.

2 Improve Crew Meals. Fail. Pilots are simple creatures. Look on the bright side though, at least you guys don't have to pay for water whilst paxing anymore.

3 Duty travel in Business Class. Fail. JB will "never repeat this mistake from QF". Pity about all the sickies on DPS with the resultant call out and overtime costs though.

[porch monkey]

Amen Capt Cloud. The vast majority understand the need to be competitive. We don't want it all. At the moment though, if the EBA was implemented as the company sees it, we would go backwards. That is simply not acceptable.

[catch18]

2800 jobs gone

Consultants get paid, Australians become unemployed.

How about cutting 1 job and saving 2799.

Sad Day.

[Captain Gidday]

Oh yeah. But it's a 'victory for Qantas' though.

[Keg]

Parity with QF salaries is not sustainable;

Given what's occurring in QF it appears they're not sustainable in QF either!

[Wedcue]

I think that's his point Keg, 200k a year SO's are just totally unreasonable, I don't care what side of the fence you sit on. You're not the driver, hell, you can't even "fly" a TCAS event if another pilot is in the control seat. 200k backseat driver.

It's not even that pay rate that I don't agree with, yes there is study involved, yes you are taking risks with your life every day you fly, yes you spend a lot of time away from home, and so should be paid, and paid well. 100 for junior, 120 for the senior FO surely, surely is adequate for the lack of work you actually have to do..
Then you wont have 10 year SO's just sitting there, hanging around..

It's unsustainable.

[hotnhigh]

Then you wont have 10 year SO's just sitting there, hanging around..

Grow the airline and you don't have the problem.
It's all about economies of scale.
In the last six months LHR flying has halved, FRA on the way out. 767 fleet reduced, but what has occurred? One chief pilot has morphed into three. A few more group ceo's have arrived. How much are they paid? And the total number of non operational employees per airframe has increased.
At least the bbq's for the refurbished office blocks were well attended by the "general group manager analysts".

I do agree however that...
[/QUOTE]It's unsustainable.[/QUOTE]
But it's not directly related to SO's pay.

But AJ will keep cutting the wrong bits and pieces because the analysts, yield managers etc say so.
Shrinking to grow. Right on track.

[Seabreeze]

So Liv says

"“Importantly, Qantas is free to run our business as we see fit and not be dictated to by union officials who do not have the airline’s best interests at heart.”

Yep, you are doing this, but the shareholders are unimpressed, and the QAN.AX shareprice remains basically unchanged.

[wilcoleaks]

Fundamentally, I don't think the share price reflects a few things yet

1) 4 Engines vs Two. The A380 should have been 777's and the 747 should be gone by now replaced with 777. Singapore Airlines has 0 747s now flying

2) Complex things like reverse seniority redundancies.

3) Complex agreements and union sentiment that conditions should NEVER EVER go backwards

4) The local competition is doing a lot of things right

Unfortunately, QF shares are now very SPECULATIVE at best.

[CaptCloudbuster]

union sentiment that conditions should NEVER EVER go backwards

AO disproves your point 3

[crystalballwannabe]

Sell the A380 white elephant

Retire the 747

Put all bets on the 787

MASSIVE GAMBLE but that the best way forward.

Previous management created this situation.

At 1.06US a BIG boeing order seems prudent.