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QF shares hit $2.00, discuss

Old 9th Jun 2012, 01:07
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Qantas needs a leader and right now it needs a popular leader. It needs somebody who can recapture the Qantas passion. It is that passion that the employees and the public admired and loved.

There is zero love for Alan Joyce and Qantas is on its death bed

The A380 is a dog and an economic drain. Nobody wants to admit it

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Old 9th Jun 2012, 01:19
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Very hard to rebuild and recapture the passion when said passion has been VR'd , CR'd, shoved sideways or otherwise ignored for the last several years.

Anyone who has worked inside that airline since 1992 can see the trail of destruction, the corpse of Australian Airlines devoured the original Qantas a long time ago.

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Old 9th Jun 2012, 01:40
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Upper lobe et al. I very much agree with your comments with the exception of this load of garbage:

Anyone who has worked inside that airline since 1992 can see the trail of destruction, the corpse of Australian Airlines devoured the original Qantas a long time ago.
That Sir, is utter tripe. I don't think this is the right time for a mud slinging "long vs short" haul debate, but it would be remiss of me if I let that one go. It is just plain wrong.

Your SH "mates" are in this one with you upper lobe, whether you like it or not. You go down and they will too. Focus on the real enemy. And that is not SH!
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Old 9th Jun 2012, 01:47
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Balance...

Please read again what I said and think about what management changes took place after the merger, I have absolutely no idea how you drew your conclusion out of my comments.
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Old 9th Jun 2012, 01:49
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the continual losses of Qantas International
I don't buy this line. This is nothing more than deceptive creative accounting.
  • $100M when they grounded the fleet - charge to International.
  • Order wrong 380 interior, $100M plus to fix - charge to International.
  • Jetstar not profitable, why not sell freight space in holds that remain empty - charge to International.
  • New ad campaign to slander the unions - charge to International.
  • Want FF to look profitable, give members free seats as rewards - charge to International.
  • Need Engineering on Jetstar, get Qantas to do and throw charge sheets in bin - charge to International.
  • $400M head office precinct upgrade - charge to International.
The list is endless but the International fundamentals are fine. Yield up. Load factors above 80% (as opposed to Jetstar 69%).

The lies will continue though.

Last edited by ALAEA Fed Sec; 9th Jun 2012 at 01:51.
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Old 9th Jun 2012, 01:51
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MAKE THEM PROVE IT!

Why are there no journalists who questions assertions such as:
"Last year (Qantas) lost $218 million" and "the airline's international division would lose $450 million this year"?

QF management have form when it comes to deceptive announcements. Dixon routinely talked up the doom & gloom only to report another record profit. That sort of behaviour:
a. cemented employee cynicism about the true state of affairs,
b. displayed the 'short-termism' of the era rather than long term strategies necessary to give QF a future, and
c. demonstrated that management was incapable of honest disclosure in communicating their case and gaining support from employees for QF's strategic direction.
Under Joyce the pattern has not changed!

I believe QF employees do care, can be pragmatic and flexible, but need to be able to believe that they're not being lied to at every step. Simple and understandable questions employees have asked of the 'leaders' (and I use the term advisedly) are not answered and yet, if there were truth, surely the myths could be dispelled. Cost allocation within the group is the elephant in the room; Joyce saying something does not make it true!

In the pilot context 'facts' proffered by QF in comparisons with other airlines have often contained glaring omissions (accommodation/schooling/health for competitor airlines) and ignore the inherent inefficiencies of 'thin' schedules, old types, diverse fleet, network shrinkage causing surpluses, short-notice commercial decisions adversely impacting FltOps planning etc. The pilots have identified many possible efficiencies, but it should also be remembered that everything in the QF pilot contract was agreed over many years by QF too; this cannot be made an overnight issue for only the pilots to solve! In stating that domestic is so profitable QF conveniently fails to explain the absolute fact that about half the flying is done by international pilots flying wide-bodied aircraft; how could that be?

But in this industrial climate a corollary of employees being asked to give management 'their soul' in return for no guidance or surety of tenure is a perception that acquiescence will serve no purpose other than to lower employees' redundancy payouts. Management's credibility and communication has been nothing short of appalling; who is responsible for that?

No one, and I mean NO one, is arguing that change is not needed. But I know that all trust is gone and it it not employees setting the tone on that issue.
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Old 9th Jun 2012, 01:52
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Maybe, just maybe, the time is ripe for the Unions to band together and approach Management with a way out.
Pay freezes, productivity improvements etc for a slice of the pie.
Would now be the time for an Employee equity buyin for said Workplace productivity trade-offs?
As Dixon was said to harp on repeatedly "You get what you bargain for"
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Old 9th Jun 2012, 01:57
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aborted....

Last edited by EW73; 9th Jun 2012 at 01:58.
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Old 9th Jun 2012, 01:59
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I think we are missing some of the positives here.
Clifford says Joyce has his and the full boards support.
That means Joyce will be gone soon (my guess is the reason will be given as for health reasons, so face saving is covered).
Followed shortly thereafter by Mr Clifford himself as the chief backer of Mr Joyce (and directions given to him). The board I believe has lost the confidence of the heavy hitters in the market (exhibit A the share price).Money talks and it doesn't take prisoners!
I don't believe anyone thinks this management has a way to recover.
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Old 9th Jun 2012, 02:24
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Not sure you fully grasp the scope of what's happening. Wage freezes and trading off some extras for "a slice of the pie", mate that ain't gonna do it and management would be inconsiderate to the shareholders if they entertained that sort of fix. The "pie" belongs to the shareholders and anyone who works for QF gets remunerated for there hard work and that's that. I can tell you that nothing short of DJ T & C's will save Qantas in it current size and structure. But it doesn't stop there either, management is just plain Excellent when it comes to unloading cash on silly promotions, gimmicks, advertising campaigns that don't hit the mark, wrong aircraft and internal programs that don't yield financial results. To rest on the Qantas name is also silly because the population of this country is being rapidly diluted with other cultures that have no connection with QF's history.

That joint needs a complete makeover from top to toe and I ask this question, how many legacy airlines worldwide have been in similar situations and traded out if it? There is one that I know of but that's about it.

SN
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Old 9th Jun 2012, 02:56
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As a QF LAME, I have no drama in following Virgin T&C's.............

But! I want to see them applied to management as well. The number of managers I now have is truly truly frightening - its like the public service of the '70s!
None of them have any idea about what you do, and none of them know you by name - its always "hey mate......."

They just seem to pop out of the woodwork.


I could easily save QF 5-10 million a year by getting rid of 10% of my managers - imagine if they did this over the whole network!

And surprise surprise, when they segmented International / Domestic what was one of the first things they did? Announce more managers of course........

And dont get me started on the amount of money they are wasting on ridiculous "projects".....

Is it any wonder the workforce is so disengaged?
Is it any wonder Joyce is booed when walking through a terminal?

When there is no QF in around 10 years time, people will look back and lay the blame squarely at the feet of the management, that started with the Dixon era.........
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Old 9th Jun 2012, 02:59
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And glaringly why does Qantas hardly ever advertise?. At the bottom of this page before I logged in was...you guessed it...a jetstar ad.

Last edited by ejectx3; 9th Jun 2012 at 03:00.
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Old 9th Jun 2012, 03:18
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You hit the nail rit on the head, it's no good if the broom is not put through management as well. This company cannot be run like a government service, it's not and will never be again. It must get lean. Personally I think management have all but given up on rescueing the thing. By the look of it there gonna drive it into the ground until it has to be broken up like Ansett. QLINK will be Rex and Jetstar will be the stand alone middle of the road carrier. They'll probably try and give mainline back to the government but I doubt they'll take it on.

As for the advertising I admit I haven't seen a lot on the box of late but there is various magazine adds that run from time to time that generally play on the "proud Australian Airline" theme but thats just playing on the past. It's a small world out there and to a large degree that can turn people off. It's the service and price that puts bums on seats. I recently arrived into Melbourne on a QF flight only to wait on board 15 minutes for the ramp staf to roll up so we could disembark. NOT GOOD ENOUGH!. That's a long 15 minutes. I got burnt when Ansett went toes up because I lost all my frequent flyer points and I can tell you that while QF is still my preferred carrier I will be checking out if I can convert them to VB and if a lot of others do the same then that's it for the FF program as well.

SN
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Old 9th Jun 2012, 03:39
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Ralph Norris must be just about finished with Commbank... I wonder if he could be persuaded to take up the monumental challenge of getting QF back to where it should and could be?.... Another Phoenix Award would look good in his trophy cabinet!

Or Rob Fyfe.... what's he up to from the end of the year when he finishes at Air NZ? That might be too long to wait though.
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Old 9th Jun 2012, 04:22
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Money talks and it doesn't take prisoners!
I don't believe anyone thinks this management has a way to recover.
Spot on... but it will need a special leader to get a positive strategy happening...
As I see it, a merger with J* (renamed Q lite or similar) and mainline would go a long way to lift spirits for the staff and punters and the over all image for the Q group in one easy step..... the board must consider this move just to save their face, anything else would be unrecoverable without the integration of the B787 into mainline first, J star can live with the A330 with its current route structure until its fleet is repainted back into mainline colours....

It is obvious now the LCC experiment doesn't work in the best interests for "Brand Qantas," much more recognised worldwide than Jstar.

The current management team have been "too clever by half" confusing themselves along the way.... it really is back to basics... ie; a one brand strategy that has been successful for 91 odd years..
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Old 9th Jun 2012, 04:45
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Now to try to put the Qantas profit downgrade into perspective:

Singapore Airlines' full-year profit has slumped 69 percent year-on-year due to high oil prices and global instability. (Sourced from news.com.au 9 May 2012)
Lufthansa, reported a full-year loss as a sluggish economy and high fuel costs crimped earnings and said results for the current six months will show a further deterioration. (Sourced from Bloomberg 7 Mar 2012)
Air France-KLM posts $1.06 Billion Euro loss on fuel spending, ticket pricing (Sourced from Bloomberg 8 Mar 2012)
After reporting a 61% drop in 2011 earnings, Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd warned Wednesday it is bracing for an even tougher year ahead amid an uncertain global outlook and persistently high jet-fuel prices. (Sourced from Wall Street Journal 14 Mar 2012)
Emirates, the world’s largest airline by international traffic, said full-year profit fell 61 percent as fuel costs rose and growth in European economies slowed. (Sourced from Bloomberg 10 May 2012)
Malaysia Airlines says it lost 2.52 billion ringgit ($780 million) last year largely due to soaring fuel costs, admitting the flag carrier is "in crisis" but confident of recovery. (Sorced from SMH 1 Mar 2012)
British Airways parent International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (IAG) said its first-quarter loss widened as fuel costs crimped margins, European economies slowed and pilots at its Spanish Iberia unit staged strikes. IAG’s operating loss was 249 million euros ($321 million), compared with a 102 million-euro shortfall a year earlier, the London-based company said today. (Sourced from Bloomberg 11 May 2012)
It is not just Qantas International that is suffering. The expected profit for the ENTIRE GLOBAL aviation industry this year is $3 billion - less than half of ONE of Australia's four banks. In my opinion, the entire global aviation industry is in crisis.

There is no doubt that Qantas Inrternational is suffering despite high load factors. The problem as I see it is that Qantas management has completely destroyed its relationship with its workforce. Change will ONLY be secured by a new CEO, Chairman and Board - the sooner, the better.

Last edited by Shark Patrol; 9th Jun 2012 at 04:59. Reason: To add British Airways to the mix
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Old 9th Jun 2012, 04:58
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Not from your end of the world but,Why did Qantas push the now CEO of Virgin Australia out when he had been at Qantas so long and looks like a genuine very competent CEO.

Seems it maybe the Australian tall poppy problems still alive down there and these are the results?

Would it not be better to have a complete fleet of 737-800/A330 and 777 ? Seems everyone else has gone this way or similar.

Last edited by 4 Holer; 9th Jun 2012 at 05:00.
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Old 9th Jun 2012, 05:07
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Absolutely global aviation is in trouble. Partly due to the emergence of the LLC's spiking demand and growth during the never before seen global growth period ending with the GFC. Now that times are getting tough we have all these airlines fighting over an ever decreasing market with the lions share going to the LLC's who are making little or no profit margin. It's a double edge sword, if they increase the ticket price the market will contract and they can't lower the price because they are already making nothing. You suggest turning J* and mainline into one, that may be a good idea but I'm not sure the current industrial situation at QF with the unions the way they are would allow that, the way they carry on I think they'd rather see it go broke and leave them all out of work. I see an asset sale being more likely. The latest craze for the new age manager is to break it up, sell it off and contract back the service.

One thing is for sure that if QF falters there are plenty of other carriers out there ready to jump in and fill the gap. One other point of note is if ou look at the most successful government privatization, commonwealth bank, it was not shackled in any way. Whereas Telstra and Qantas both have had various pieces of legislation put in place to ensure they conduct business in a certain way and then let them go up against sharp competition which is free. No surprise really when you look at it.

SN
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Old 9th Jun 2012, 05:08
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Seems it maybe the Australian tall poppy problems still alive down there and these are the results?
Nope, he missed out on getting the CEO gig at Qantas and duly pulled the pin.

Whether he wouldn't play to the boards tune and was overlooked or whether he missed out because he was old school Qantas, only the board knows.
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Old 9th Jun 2012, 05:32
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I think you will find somewhere in a Financial Review story from some years back that Joyce, Borghetti and Peter Gregg where all to make a presentation to the board re their vision of the future for Qantas to see who got the CEO job. Joyce was first, he walked out and said to the other two dont bother i got the job!!! The rest is history.
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