Jetstar International Pax figures... WTF???
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ozbiggles,
Don't waste your time. All of tooldog's posts are about sledging, condescending, pontificating and generally making a prick of himself. Then when someone asks him a straight to the point question, such as yours, he'll disappear off into the ether, not to be heard of again til the next thread.
Apparently there are no mirrors in your house.
Don't waste your time. All of tooldog's posts are about sledging, condescending, pontificating and generally making a prick of himself. Then when someone asks him a straight to the point question, such as yours, he'll disappear off into the ether, not to be heard of again til the next thread.
Get a life son. This is way too sad.
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J* Asia's figures are incorporated in the release. If you add all the figures they match the Group Total at the bottom of the document.
The clue is on the Jetstar website.
Jetstar Route Map - Flight Information - Travel Information - Jetstar Airways
The services that Jetstar apparently consider to be Jetstar International are the ones I have counted PLUS Jetstar NZ DOM. Must be something about a common aviation market I guess.
That doesnt solve the discrepancy however. In January JQ NZ had 131688 seats available for a JQ INTL total of 371840. With a 78.5% Load factor that means they carried 291895 pax. A discrepancy of 66,000 passengers on the official figures!
Tunedog, I am simply trying to explain some figures which, prima facie, do not tally. The work took me about 1.5 hours to gather and collate, something that no aviation journalist seems to be capable of doing.... I printed it here so people could see and check my working.
Its not rocket science when you have the schedules available.
The clue is on the Jetstar website.
Jetstar Route Map - Flight Information - Travel Information - Jetstar Airways
The services that Jetstar apparently consider to be Jetstar International are the ones I have counted PLUS Jetstar NZ DOM. Must be something about a common aviation market I guess.
That doesnt solve the discrepancy however. In January JQ NZ had 131688 seats available for a JQ INTL total of 371840. With a 78.5% Load factor that means they carried 291895 pax. A discrepancy of 66,000 passengers on the official figures!
Tunedog, I am simply trying to explain some figures which, prima facie, do not tally. The work took me about 1.5 hours to gather and collate, something that no aviation journalist seems to be capable of doing.... I printed it here so people could see and check my working.
Its not rocket science when you have the schedules available.
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Fantastic work Capt Kremin. The concocted figures show us what a sham the whole Jetstar operation is.You have showed Qantas/Jetstar management at its finest.It is all done with smoke and mirrors.The master plan and the aspirations of the bastard child are obvious.The bastard child of the group has only one purpose , to smash the unionised workforce at QF.The brand, like "No Name" spaghetti , has not one loyal customer. It is valueless.Any figures released are to be taken with a grain of salt.When it achieves critical mass it will be buried, the red and white paint bought out , the orange and silver obliterated. No one will miss it.
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A lot of effort Captain Kremin, well done.
I am a bit frantic right now but will have a look at the numbers and your analysis and see if I can help find a way out of this seeming paradox.
Have to say up front though that I really doubt the answer is going to be in deliberate porkies being told by Qantas to the ASX. That way lies jail and I really don’t think anyone’s that company minded!.
As for the numbers. Til I get a chance to look closely I can’t comment.
But as for methodology…..a couple of points…..there are many caveats but these are a start.
First…..grown men have over the years lost their marbles over attempting to track what constitutes “ a passenger”. Is it:
• An occupied seat for a take off and landing on one sector?
• A person traveling from A to B through any number of intermediate stops, flight number changes and stopovers?
• Ditto….within the one 24 hour period?
• Seat occupied on the same flight number no matter how many stops?
• Etc etc
Second…..be very careful in using “Load Factor” for analysis. It is not simply the ratio of seats occupied to seats available (though for a given flight that is usually true). Load Factor is more usually defined as the ratio of Passenger Kilometres (either revenue or total) to Available Seat Kilometres. So an airline operating lots of short range flights that are largely full and a few long range flights that are only half full might sell way over 75% of all available seats but maybe only 60% of all available seat kilometers.
Anyway….I will look though the numbers and see what the aging Sherm brain can add to the discussion if anything.
I am a bit frantic right now but will have a look at the numbers and your analysis and see if I can help find a way out of this seeming paradox.
Have to say up front though that I really doubt the answer is going to be in deliberate porkies being told by Qantas to the ASX. That way lies jail and I really don’t think anyone’s that company minded!.
As for the numbers. Til I get a chance to look closely I can’t comment.
But as for methodology…..a couple of points…..there are many caveats but these are a start.
First…..grown men have over the years lost their marbles over attempting to track what constitutes “ a passenger”. Is it:
• An occupied seat for a take off and landing on one sector?
• A person traveling from A to B through any number of intermediate stops, flight number changes and stopovers?
• Ditto….within the one 24 hour period?
• Seat occupied on the same flight number no matter how many stops?
• Etc etc
Second…..be very careful in using “Load Factor” for analysis. It is not simply the ratio of seats occupied to seats available (though for a given flight that is usually true). Load Factor is more usually defined as the ratio of Passenger Kilometres (either revenue or total) to Available Seat Kilometres. So an airline operating lots of short range flights that are largely full and a few long range flights that are only half full might sell way over 75% of all available seats but maybe only 60% of all available seat kilometers.
Anyway….I will look though the numbers and see what the aging Sherm brain can add to the discussion if anything.
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Yes
Kremin dude discovers JQ fraud. Yeah I guess the JQ and Q management weren't counting on conscientious dude such as yourself.
The way you guys band together and believe everything your fellow pilot mate state makes me laugh even harder. I tell you pilots and the business world do not match.
Next please
Kremin dude discovers JQ fraud. Yeah I guess the JQ and Q management weren't counting on conscientious dude such as yourself.
The way you guys band together and believe everything your fellow pilot mate state makes me laugh even harder. I tell you pilots and the business world do not match.
Next please
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sherm
I have no doubt jq numbers are correct in some form. As you say there are many ways to count a pax and they will bend over backwards to make them look as good as possible using a plausible method.
Many asx listed companies do what they can to attract attention of investors to put the best gloss possible on their numbers.
You can forget about the asx and asic they are toothless tigers.
They admit they do not have the people or money to chase everything and have come off second best in some high profile cases of late.
I admire kremin for at least trying to dissect their numbers.
The more scrutiny the better and not just for jq or qf.
Many asx listed companies do what they can to attract attention of investors to put the best gloss possible on their numbers.
You can forget about the asx and asic they are toothless tigers.
They admit they do not have the people or money to chase everything and have come off second best in some high profile cases of late.
I admire kremin for at least trying to dissect their numbers.
The more scrutiny the better and not just for jq or qf.
Who said all of us believe Capt Kremin?
However he has presented a case, showed his working and allowed for a debate to be held on the issue.
777 has just allowed us to see what happens when a circus loses its clown.
The only real difference is a clown is funny.....and probably has some debating skill
However he has presented a case, showed his working and allowed for a debate to be held on the issue.
777 has just allowed us to see what happens when a circus loses its clown.
The only real difference is a clown is funny.....and probably has some debating skill
From Crickey...
"The anomalous figures have been referred to the ASX following an analysis of the January traffic figures by “Captain Kremin”, a regular poster on Pprune.org, the Professional Pilots Rumour Network."
CK for PM
CK for PM
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Qantas has been quoting NZ Domestic passengers and Australian Domestic passengers who travel internally on a flight with a JQ International flight number as JQ International passengers.
Jetstar International didn't carry 358,000 people in and out of Australia in January, they carried 195,000.
Jetstar International are not the third largest International Airline operating in and out of Australia.
Jetstar International didn't grow 100% since January 2009, most if not all that growth came from their replacement of Qantas NZ with Jetstar Domestic NZ, and then quoting those domestic passengers as Jetstar International Passengers.
Jetstar International didn't carry 358,000 people in and out of Australia in January, they carried 195,000.
Jetstar International are not the third largest International Airline operating in and out of Australia.
Jetstar International didn't grow 100% since January 2009, most if not all that growth came from their replacement of Qantas NZ with Jetstar Domestic NZ, and then quoting those domestic passengers as Jetstar International Passengers.
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Good work CK, we all smelt the stench of a rat when J* figures were released, but you quantified it and just showed how much smoke and mirrors are thrown around the joint!
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Jetstargate
Some major discrepancies in the figures . Not just a little fudging.
Captain Kremin has struck a blow for honesty and integrity . . He has revealed the compliant , worthless journalistic hacks that mindlessly regurgitate QF/J* press releases into main stream media without any interest in researching the facts. He has revealed the QF public relations spin doctors for what they are. Snake oil salesman .Now that the ASX is involved , as Keg suggested ,these masters of spin in the QF bunker will need to think twice before releasing any dodgy figures.Let's see what the fallout is.Let's see where the rotting stench emanates from.Thank you PPruNe and Captain Kremin. Jetstargate is getting really interesting.
Captain Kremin has struck a blow for honesty and integrity . . He has revealed the compliant , worthless journalistic hacks that mindlessly regurgitate QF/J* press releases into main stream media without any interest in researching the facts. He has revealed the QF public relations spin doctors for what they are. Snake oil salesman .Now that the ASX is involved , as Keg suggested ,these masters of spin in the QF bunker will need to think twice before releasing any dodgy figures.Let's see what the fallout is.Let's see where the rotting stench emanates from.Thank you PPruNe and Captain Kremin. Jetstargate is getting really interesting.
Nunc est bibendum
This is too funny. You honestly think the Kremin dude knows the facts. I think a bunch of sheep comes to my mind. Bah bah
Compare that to how you obviously believe the spin out of QF. Who's the sheep in reality?
Nunc est bibendum
I note that Ben Sandilands has either been trolling PPRUNE or someone has contacted him as he's got an article on Crikey about Kremin's numbers:
I registered on the trial to have a look at his comments but it's not working as advertised.
So, does anyone have the additional bits and pieces to this start:
I'd be interested in Ben's take on the numbers. If his analysis confirms Kremin's it may be worth forwarding the info to AIPA. I've got no problems with J* being talked up but I'm certainly not impressed at having it talked up to this extent to the detriment of mainline with the sorts of distortions that appear to be going on here.
I registered on the trial to have a look at his comments but it's not working as advertised.
So, does anyone have the additional bits and pieces to this start:
Qantas is inflating its stock exchange filings of monthly data for its Jetstar International operations with those of its Jetstar New Zealand domestic operation.
The anomalous figures have been referred to the ASX following an analysis of the January traffic figures by “Captain Kremin”, a regular poster on Pprune.org, the Professional Pilots Rumour Network.
The anomalous figures have been referred to the ASX following an analysis of the January traffic figures by “Captain Kremin”, a regular poster on Pprune.org, the Professional Pilots Rumour Network.
Qantas cooking the books on passenger numbers
Ben Sandilands writes:
JETSTAR, QANTAS
Qantas is inflating its stock exchange filings of monthly data for its Jetstar International operations with those of its Jetstar New Zealand domestic operation.
The anomalous figures have been referred to the ASX following an analysis of the January traffic figures by "Captain Kremin", a regular poster on Pprune.org, the Professional Pilots Rumour Network.
For the month of January, Qantas claimed to have boarded 358,000 paying passengers on Jetstar International flights to or from Australia with a revenue load factor of 78.5%. However, Kremin added up all of the seats available on Jetstar International flights. "This is physically impossible to achieve with JQ's Australian fleet and schedules," he found.
"Analysis of the Jetstar schedules shows a massive shortfall in the number of available seats on purely international flights in and out of Australia. There were only approximately 241,000 seats available on those flights in January."
His argument is that Jetstar is not only counting those flown trips entirely within New Zealand but those flying on Australian domestic services that connect with, or continue as, Jetstar International flights. He points out anyone can book a purely domestic seat on these feeder flights, mainly Sydney-Melbourne, and be counted as an international passenger.
Captain Kremin, who has been a thorn in the side of Qantas online for some time, said: "Failure to acknowledge that approximately half of their passengers are flown on domestic sectors in Australia and, incredibly, New Zealand, is misleading at best. Perhaps it is also something that investors should be informed about.
"If I am right the they only carried approximately 190,000 passengers in and out of Australia in January instead of the 358,000 they are attempting to project."
The apparent exaggeration of Jetstar International’s success will be a sore point with those Qantas employees who argue the company is transferring massive assets or subsidies into the low-cost subsidiaries operations in order to hollow out and collapse the terms and conditions under which they work.
This child-eating-the-parent concern is very widespread in a Qantas that is now the junior source of profits for the group.
In response, a Qantas spokesperson conceded Kremin’s analysis of the figures was correct, but defended its inclusion of purely NZ domestic statistics in its international figures as something it had always done.
Qantas also said all passengers on board domestic flights in the Qantas or Jetstar brands that carried international flight numbers for a service with an ultimate destination overseas were counted as international, even if they were getting off before the flight left Australia. (This would have the effect of depressing the reported market share of Qantas compared to Virgin Blue.)
JETSTAR, QANTAS
Qantas is inflating its stock exchange filings of monthly data for its Jetstar International operations with those of its Jetstar New Zealand domestic operation.
The anomalous figures have been referred to the ASX following an analysis of the January traffic figures by "Captain Kremin", a regular poster on Pprune.org, the Professional Pilots Rumour Network.
For the month of January, Qantas claimed to have boarded 358,000 paying passengers on Jetstar International flights to or from Australia with a revenue load factor of 78.5%. However, Kremin added up all of the seats available on Jetstar International flights. "This is physically impossible to achieve with JQ's Australian fleet and schedules," he found.
"Analysis of the Jetstar schedules shows a massive shortfall in the number of available seats on purely international flights in and out of Australia. There were only approximately 241,000 seats available on those flights in January."
His argument is that Jetstar is not only counting those flown trips entirely within New Zealand but those flying on Australian domestic services that connect with, or continue as, Jetstar International flights. He points out anyone can book a purely domestic seat on these feeder flights, mainly Sydney-Melbourne, and be counted as an international passenger.
Captain Kremin, who has been a thorn in the side of Qantas online for some time, said: "Failure to acknowledge that approximately half of their passengers are flown on domestic sectors in Australia and, incredibly, New Zealand, is misleading at best. Perhaps it is also something that investors should be informed about.
"If I am right the they only carried approximately 190,000 passengers in and out of Australia in January instead of the 358,000 they are attempting to project."
The apparent exaggeration of Jetstar International’s success will be a sore point with those Qantas employees who argue the company is transferring massive assets or subsidies into the low-cost subsidiaries operations in order to hollow out and collapse the terms and conditions under which they work.
This child-eating-the-parent concern is very widespread in a Qantas that is now the junior source of profits for the group.
In response, a Qantas spokesperson conceded Kremin’s analysis of the figures was correct, but defended its inclusion of purely NZ domestic statistics in its international figures as something it had always done.
Qantas also said all passengers on board domestic flights in the Qantas or Jetstar brands that carried international flight numbers for a service with an ultimate destination overseas were counted as international, even if they were getting off before the flight left Australia. (This would have the effect of depressing the reported market share of Qantas compared to Virgin Blue.)
