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Pig flu and an economic crisis...

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Pig flu and an economic crisis...

Old 28th May 2009, 01:19
  #181 (permalink)  
 
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no real remedies

here are the issues:
  1. Inbound travellers are only thermally screened which is, at best, of notional value
  2. Anyone with colds/flu on inbound a/c - are supposedly to be checked by Quarrantine Officers prior to pax disembarking
  3. Notification of suffering pax to said Quarrantine Officers is arbitary and generally reliant on CC to determine (some are dilgent - some are not, [allegedly], one QF flight didn't bother to notify as the onboard Manager did not want a delay which would have meant missing aconnecting domestic flight home! Several pax later presented with symptoms.)
  4. Quarrantine Officers boarding a/c have no means of diagnosis - they can only 'guess risk' based on what the pax say
  5. Testing when a pax feels sick enough to go to a Doctor - which is usally a day or two later, (done with nasal & oral swabs onto viral xfer media) then takes 48 to 72 hours for initial results and high level of variance in test outcomes
  6. Primary antivirals (ie Tamiflu) only effective if administered within the first 48 hours of infection - other antivirals are secondary
So in a global environment rapid transmission by airline passengers is inevitable.

Interestingly though, discounting the cruise ship cases, almost half of the national total have occurred in Victoria - with a disproportionate number of these who reportedly travelled on QF94.

AT
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Old 28th May 2009, 10:59
  #182 (permalink)  
 
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So in a global environment rapid transmission by airline passengers is inevitable.
That applies only if air travel is inevitable.

If this bug obtains the lethality of H5N1 (80% fatality rate) while maintaining its current level of infectivity, and authorities can respond in time, then your industry is going to have to take a break for a while, otherwise it will be a "permanent" break.

Ferchrissake watch this ****er and think how you might respond.
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Old 28th May 2009, 12:47
  #183 (permalink)  
 
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although they keep saying the H1N1 in Aus is a "mild" one, I think with such a quick exponential upwards trend, one major concern is the ability of the virus to 'mutate' with any sort of pre existing viral conditions, or mutate with the current winter flu virus and become a more virulent strain.

Another concern is what if an infected person also comes into contact with the "parrot flu" in NSW. I read not so long ago about this "parrot virus" that merely by the flap of the infected bird's wings or any accidental contact with the infected bird's droppings even inhalation is fatal. Now if that somehow finds its way to a H1N1 infected person or a carrier who may not have symptoms, than the result could be very very fatal.

I wonder too if those 20 crew who were quarantine, only because the law says so, not that team managers happy to see people off on sick leave for 1 week (minimum quarantine time), Through no fault of their own , just doing their job, is this going to be taken off their sick leave balance? Team managers will have to braced themselves for many more crews who will get quarantine. One stark reminder that i read from the news was that employers have a duty of care to other staff by not making it difficult for staff suffering from fever and flu symptoms(which include fatigue) to take time off work. This is so not in line with QCC culture. team managers might have to adjust their attitude and assumptions when crew now call in sick.

Last edited by heads_down; 28th May 2009 at 13:05.
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Old 29th May 2009, 00:03
  #184 (permalink)  
 
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Question Beatup??

We've just spent 3 weeks in Tucson AZ, 65 miles from the Mexican border. While the world is obsessed with Swine Flu, the two-weeks ago Sunday edition of the Arizona Daily Star [Tucson Region section] cited a head-on collision taking the lives of 3 folk, one death by murder and another in a fight.

You'll be astounded to know that there was not ONE mention of Swine Flu anywhere in the paper! This in an area of the USA where one could argue, all should be wearing masks and staying indoors!! Even my new best friend, Officer Ramirez of the US Border patrol and his colleagues at the checkpoint North of Tombstone weren't wearing masks. Just where is the sense of proportion in all this?

The biggest stir we were involved in was when we asked our hosts for a Gurney to do some cleaning.....one guy wanted to call 911! Two countries with mutual interests separated by a common language.

G'day
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Old 29th May 2009, 03:43
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well that is strange cos all my iphone apps with American news like wall street journal, new york times, Los Angeles times, CNN, USA today all have swine flu coverage on a daily basis.

Again the concern is not so much the h1n1 or the media, but rather the ability of this organism to mutate and the rate at which it can accomplish this.

All previous serious pandemic all started out as mild cases.

Don't underestimate virus and bacteria, we have learned from history that they can take down an entire population of people if ignored.

everyone kept saying it is "mild" exactly what do they want to see to take this seriously? deaths? I think not.
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Old 29th May 2009, 04:03
  #186 (permalink)  
 
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alarmist |əˈlärmist|
noun
someone who is considered to be exaggerating a danger and so causing needless worry or panic.
adjective
creating needless worry or panic : alarmist rumors.
the sky is falling,The sky is falling,Run ,Run Save yourselves!!!!

Heads Down,How many people die every year of the flu in the US let alone the rest of the world?
36,000
Heads Down,how many people have died yet from swine flu.
You really are a half empty glass type of person aren't you.
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Old 29th May 2009, 05:00
  #187 (permalink)  
 
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Get a grip

We've just spent 3 weeks in Tucson AZ, 65 miles from the Mexican border.
Yep. I know a guy who last week returned from 10 days on the west coast, drove a car from LA to the Mexican border and back. On his return home, he remarked that he'd seen no coverage in the media about this flu, and the only mask he saw was on his arrival back at Tulla.

the ability of this organism to mutate
All flu viruses mutate. That's why the three flu inoculations offered in Australia each year change. I've been having such shots for 10 years now (employer offers it to all staff for free) and according to the administering doctors, over time it helps build a degree of immunity to strains and other 'mutations'.

From today's crikey.com.au......

Get a grip: Swine Flu is not a biblical plague

Canberra correspondent Bernard Keane writes:


The human instinct to arbitrarily select threats about which to panic, with a little help from the media, is proving very costly in the case of Swine Flu.

It apparently matters little that Australia’s Chief Medical Officer yesterday made a point of saying how mild Swine Flu was and how there was no need for alarm. We’re spending tens of millions of dollars because politicians -- understandably -- don’t want to be caught out responding to Swine Flu the way it should be addressed -- with the same urgent response with which the nation met the great toe-stubbing epidemic of 1997 -- when there’s the faintest chance an Australian could die from it.
Australians of course will die from flu this year, as they do every year, but for whatever reasons lurking deep in human psychology -- porcine imagery, xenophobia, GFC-induced uncertainty -- the far milder Swine Flu is what is sending Australia’s health system into overdrive.

And that costs money. Last time I made this point, a number of readers suggested I had no understanding of preventative health. But in the absence of a magic pudding, every dollar spent by a government is a choice with an opportunity cost and we’re spending a lot on swine flu that could be spent on more serious health issues.

Yesterday Nicola Roxon announced $43m would be spent buying additional courses of vaccine. That’s the vaccine for normal flu, by the way, not Swine Flu. That doesn’t exist yet and may not exist until after the pandemic is over, but the Government has pre-ordered that too, from CSL. They’re not saying how much that will cost, or what will be done with it if Swine Flu has disappeared by July or August.

It’s not Nicola Roxon’s fault. The politician hasn’t been born yet who’d be willing to stand up and say that the public, particularly the media, should stop treating swine flu as a biblical plague when there are lots more serious health matters to be dealt with.


The worried well are also rushing GPs with every sniffle, throat tickle and case of "not feeling 100%". Monthly figures for GP visits are quite volatile, but centre around the 6-7m mark according to Medicare statistics. If there’s a million extra GP visits over April and May because of panic about Swine Flu, that will cost taxpayers $33.5m, based on GPs charging for Level B consultations, which have an MBS fee of $33.55.


Then there’s the cost of dislocation caused by school closures and what might become widespread business closures. Right across the country large businesses will be breaking out their risk management plans and wondering who can work from home.


This week a rumour has swept Parliament House that a public servant attending Estimates hearings had been sent home sick and tested positive for Swine Flu. Problematically, the relevant department isn’t scheduled to appear at Estimates til next week, but that didn’t stop questions being asked on multiple occasions of Nicola Roxon, who declined to "engage in speculation".


Should Swine Flu spread in Parliament House, of course, there’ll be a push for MPs not to return next week, given the massive influx of people sitting weeks entail and capacity for returning staff and politicians to spread it into every electorate in the country. After this week’s playground antics, that may not be such a bad thing, but there is the business of government to transact quite apart from what happens in Question Time.


Our politicians and health chiefs might simply be playing it safe, but that approach comes with its costs and they’re not small and they won’t stop growing for some time.
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Old 29th May 2009, 05:00
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Cabin Crew are not doctors....

Airtags,

Whilst most of what you have said is completely valid, the issue of 'diligence' or otherwise of the cabin crew is a tricky one.

EG if a pax says, "I have a sore throat, is that declarable?", the strict answer is NO. The list of reportable symptoms are quite specific in the documentation given to cabin crew, and are reasonably obvious and extreme. However at the end of the day, it is up to the passenger to declare themselves(unless we notice something obvious) and if they don't....not much we can do I'm afraid.

That is not to make excuses for the example you provided, and yes that sounded slack if it is indeed true.

However, eveyone needs to remember, we are not doctors, and cannot make a diagnosis. Some pax seem to think we have miraculously had medical training and can now diagnose swine flu on a whim!

This whole thing is very messy to administrate, so we do our best...
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Old 29th May 2009, 09:06
  #189 (permalink)  
 
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CDC H1N1 Flu | Interim Guidance for Airlines Regarding Flight Crews Arriving from Domestic and International Areas Affected by Swine Influenza
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Old 29th May 2009, 18:32
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Marsh and Sunfish are dreamers.
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Old 29th May 2009, 20:46
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JJ:

the sky is falling,The sky is falling,Run ,Run Save yourselves!!!!

Heads Down,How many people die every year of the flu in the US let alone the rest of the world?
36,000
Heads Down,how many people have died yet from swine flu.
You really are a half empty glass type of person aren't you.
4PW's:

Marsh and Sunfish are dreamers.

For the last time, it is not the lethality of H1N1 swine flu that is at issue here. IT IS THE NUMBER OF CASES THAT WILL OCCUR ALL AT ONCE THAT MAY OVERWHELM THE HEALTH SYSTEM.

That is why Victoria is opening fever clinics. It is an attempt at triage - to separate people into three groups, the worried well, those with "mild" H1N1 who just need Tamiflu, and those with H1N1 and pre existing conditions that require hospitalisation.


To put it in terms a pilot might understand, in two months time you are unlucky enough to have a heart attack. You are transported to hospital. There is no bed for you because the hospital is full of Flu patients.
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Old 30th May 2009, 03:02
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Sunfish - agree with you 100%.

It seems many people posting here and in fact most of the general public do not understand the term Pandemic.

I am not a medical person however primarily I work internationally with health care professionals, particularly epidemiologists specialising in primary health care. Through this I have gained a good understanding of the impact of what many call a simple flu virus. It is not the severity of the disease, it is the number of cases that result, and also the impact of secondary ARI's occuring in people with compromised immune systems and those living in less than ideal conditions e.g. nursing homes, crowded conditions, and those who for reasons of poverty / lack of good nutrition lack a strong constitution and ability to fight off "simple" viral infections.

The greatest killer in any of the flu pandemics has been the secondary bacterial infections such as pneumonia and other ARI's - not the flu itself.

The fact that the largest number deaths occur in Third World countries is a result of a lack of facilities to treat the sick and several of the reasons I list in the third paragraph. However this does not mean we (as in First World nations) will not feel the impact.

Hopefully this outbreak will not result in a full on pandemic will the resultant economic impact, however time will tell if this will pass quickly or mutate to provide subsequent waves of further outbreaks.
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Old 30th May 2009, 05:37
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Well folks, you cannot go everywhere with a hot water bottle and a parachute, so may as well keep on keeping on doing what you are doing now, me, I am off to Honkers for a few days, any sign of flu I will simply douse with a few glasses of rum (and add milk if I am really sick) and take to my sick bed and become a demanding ol man, last year it was the horses, this year it is us, probably radishes next year, this is a hypocondriacs dream, yes it is a sickness, yes it is a nuisance, but like the horses most of us will survive, now North Korea, that might be a different story.................
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Old 30th May 2009, 07:27
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Ok Sunfish. How many have been ADMITTED to hospital and remained as inpatients DIRECTLY as a result of hog flu??? Any??? Hysterical bogans in the emergency room do not count.

The only reason the health system is danger of being overwhelmed is due to the commercial media driven HYSTERIA!!!!

IF the hysteria gets too great and starts to threaten MEDIA interests ie Large sporting events, AFL, State of origin, Soccer, Motoracing and whatever else is on around the country. This bullshit will be pulled right quick and the reassuring messages will flow.

I fear for our bullshit media driven society.

Give them wine and circus!!!!!
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Old 30th May 2009, 09:33
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Hysteria or not

Under the extra powers granted by the NSW government, Dr Kerry Chant can order anyone who has been in contact with a suspected case and has ignored advice to voluntarily quarantine themselves to stay isolated for up to 14 days.
NSW police can assist in compliance on request from Dr Chant


So if your team manager, like they often do, hurry you back to work or gives you 40 questions after you had flu symptoms after a trip from the list of 44 countries.

I think it would be wise to contact the The NSW chief health officer and use the powers of the law to compel your incompetent team manager who is ever watchful of your sick leaves and those pesky phone calls and even letters disguise as "I so care for your health" bull shit to obey the law or shut up, oh wait a minute didn't Qantas committed a criminal offense not so long ago? breaking the law is second nature for Qantas. So your team managers might even challenge medical experts, which would not be the first time, there has been a precedent of a crew that was dismissed over sick leave and reinstated a year later after it was challenged legally.

All flu symptoms should be taken seriously as both you and your medically qualified team manager cannot make a diagnosis but previous experiences and documented cases have shown they will attempt to make diagnosis, give medical advise, even decide if it is severe enough to warrant time off from work.

Imagine crews all having to take 14 days sick leave as ordered by the laws, I wonder how Qantas would deal with this. Also, as a flight attendant, coming into contact with so many people in high risk countries, I think the chances of catching it is not entirely wild imagination, given Qantas disallow the use of gloves and face mask as it is a rip off so called 'premium' airlines that none of the top airlines of the world want to emulate.

Last edited by heads_down; 30th May 2009 at 10:07.
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Old 30th May 2009, 10:52
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Angry

What defies understanding is why so many are educated (= brainwashed) by the media. Is it because they are too lazy to get off ther ar*ses and click on a few links and get the factual info from the worlds experts. Many posters here would rather offer half baked opinions from their limited personal experience or relay the misinformed views of that scion of factual reporting - popular press journalism.

When you don't know about something then go find experts and be guided by their advice. It is what we (and I do hope that most of the folks posting here meet that criteria) do as professional pilots. Why should any other field of expertise be any different? Only a fool ignores expert opinion .. particularly when the stakes are high.

In the case of the pandemic potential of Influenza A H1N1/2009 you might like to start with Dr Robert Webster (St Judes) and acknowledged as the worlds foremost expert on Influenza. Perhaps Dr Michael Osterholm, Epidemiologist - head of CIDRAP and adviser to a number of US administrations, Dr Albert Osterhaus of The Erasmus Institute in The Netherlands, Dr Lance Jennings from Christchurch NZ, Dr John Oxford - UK, How about The World Health Organisation, or berhaps the CDC is the US? Folks these are the worlds best and brightest in the field of virology and epidemiology. They are all singing from the same hymn book about this virus. Why aren't you discussing their expert opinions?

If someone chooses to wallow in ignorance that is their right. They are welcome to it but I'll never understand it.

My interest in this is passing info onto my professioanl aviation colleagues and any one else that may be interested. If you have nothing positive to offer then please just switch back to the footy or whatever else you use to avoid thinking.
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Old 30th May 2009, 14:19
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regardless of who or what you believe

the law is the law
and you must obey it, unlike your employer who managed to commit criminal offense over a period of three years.

you, on the other hand should behave as a law abiding citizen and volunteer to quarantine yourselves for 14 days if you think you may have come into contact with people who have flu like symptoms in one of the 44 listed countries whether or not you develop symptoms whether or not you have made your own self-diagnosis.

the law and the courts does not gives a rat's rectum about what your personal beliefs are about this 'alleged" media hype


Use your initiative and be proactive, volunteer to quarantine yourselves if you believe you have had contact with infected people known or unknown, do not wait till you developed rashes than you start to quarantine yourselves, it may already be too late and you may also have broken the law by knowingly or unknowingly passing on contagions.

Otherwise you are breaking the law and the NSW government can and will use the police to compel you and your employer to obey the laws, but then it is unlikely Qantas will obey this law. they have proven they can break laws over a period of three years and amazingly, the CEO does not even know about it and got away Scot free. Hmmm.

Once again I urge you all to obey the law, not break it like your employer once did.
Under the extra powers granted by the NSW government, Dr Kerry Chant can order anyone who has been in contact with a suspected case and has ignored advice to voluntarily quarantine themselves to stay isolated for up to 14 days.
NSW police can assist in compliance on request from Dr Chant's office.
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Old 30th May 2009, 14:26
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the all blacks are a bunch of pussies!
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Old 30th May 2009, 19:11
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Perhaps worth a small bit of time would be the 18MAY WHO conference on the evolving Flu A H1N1/2009 pandemic:

Since this date the case number has doubled to over 15000.

http://www.who.int/csr/resources/pub...8_May_2009.pdf

Cheers,
Brad
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Old 31st May 2009, 02:32
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If you have nothing positive to offer then please just switch back to the footy or whatever else you use to avoid thinking.
great win by the Tigers - shame about idiot Cousins.

We had better enjoy avoiding thinking while we (that's us simpletons out here , not you "thinkers" ) can, the way the media is going we'll have no schools, no sporting events and for anyone in the tourism or airline industries (or anything related to them) no jobs.
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