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Qantas will be dead in 6 months

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Old 22nd Apr 2009, 08:18
  #101 (permalink)  
 
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The One That Was

That was Fiona Balfour and she got punted about 18months ago
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Old 22nd Apr 2009, 08:27
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She still travels

as CL on QF first class. go figure
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Old 22nd Apr 2009, 13:17
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When AJ came out to talk about the 1750 slashings, he said something very important:
he says that this is contingent on the fact that the next 6 months would see the world economy improves from what it is right now.

Well. since AJ made that announcement, The prime minister and Reserve bank have both stated the country is yes, in recession.

And the International Monetary Fund ( financial gurus not to be underestimated) have also reported that world debt is now over 5 trillion dollars Aus.

The obama administration had also came out to say that those toxic assets and bank debts still won't go away and will not go away for quite some time. This means credit flow will be clogged. With the imminent collapse of the American motor industry, more bad news to come. United Airlines is also bleeding bad and have cut fares, even on the pacific route.

So there you go, the bright economic outlook in the next 6 months.
I do think the next 6 months will be far worse for traveling, tourism, recreational industry as more firms sack people and output shrinks.

Japan would contract 6% in output, Britain and most of Europe will sink even deeper into recession mud.

The IMF also said that it is a watch and see thing, meaning the Obama admin. bailing out all these failed firms may not work at all, and in that case, it would be far worse then not bailing them out at all because tax payers are now burdened with such high debts.

According to IMF,
Economies will shrink accordingly:
US 2.8%
UK 4.1%
Japan over 6%

Aus unemployment to go over 7.8%

This is all very very scary news for Qantas.
Qantas does need to cut costs at all; cost or it will simply go bust.
This has nothing to do with media scare, it is a fact what IMF reports.

And IMF has revised their forecast further down than what it did last.

All the important markets on Qantas routes (Asia USA UK )are all showing no signs of any improvement whatsoever.

Corporate travel has decreased significantly and will continue to go further down as every country have rising unemployment. Private travel is confined to a weekedn drive to the blue mountains only.

It does not matter if air fares have fallen, travelling is a very expensive exercise, especially overseas, currency Xchange rates, accomodations, food, shopping, all unneccessary spendings that can be cut completely from any household.

Supermarkets and landlords are the only business making lotsa monsy at the moment. Peeps are even cutting their consumption of lattes from cafes.

not good.

Dun and Bradstreet Australia had also come out to say that 150,000 businesses in Australia will fail because they cannot pay their bills. And banks not willing to lend to businesses. All these cannot be good for Qantas despite their little 2 point something billion in the piggy bank, constantly using that as an ammunition.
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Old 22nd Apr 2009, 13:33
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Those holding their breaths that the next 6 months might bring forth juicy mandarins and blossoming bergamot might really have to think twice.

Delta Airlines just openly stated in tomorrows papers,. not sure if it is the Australian or Sydney morning herald

that "Delta flying to Australia will spell disaster for Qantas" as headlines.

oh wait don't worry, use that untapped 2 billion dollars in the piggy bank, after all, that's the only thing that will prevent a bankrupt.
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Old 22nd Apr 2009, 14:25
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We'll be a disaster for Qantas: Delta

Matt O'Sullivan

April 23, 2009
DELTA AIR LINES has challenged Qantas's dominance of the Australia-United States route after describing its foray into the market as a "disaster" for the incumbent airline.
Qantas stands to lose more than 200 passengers a day - over half the seats on a standard jumbo jet - when Delta begins daily flights between Sydney and Los Angeles in early July.
Even before Delta launches services, the trans-Pacific route has been transformed in a matter of months from being one of Qantas's most profitable international legs to become loss-making, largely because of a dramatic drop in demand for business and first class travel.
Delta's network planning chief, Glen Hauenstein, said its flights in July would be "relatively full" because more than 30 per cent of seats were already booked.
He said there was demand to fly the route because under previous arrangements Qantas picked up more than 200 passengers a day through an interlining agreement with Delta and Northwest Airlines. The two US carriers merged last year.
"So the demand is there and … if you're the incumbent carrier this is a disaster - if you're the non-incumbent carrier, this is an opportunity," he said during Delta's first-quarter earnings briefing.
"And the question is long run, as being the world's largest carrier and having the extensive route network that we have, do we want to have outlet to Australia? The answer is clearly yes."
Delta's Boeing 777s will increase passenger seats on the route every week by almost a quarter, or 4900, to 25,000, just as the aviation industry suffers its worst downturn of the jet age.
Air fares on the route have fallen about 57 per cent since September, according to Macquarie Equities, due to both a dramatic slump in demand and Virgin Blue's long-haul carrier, V Australia, joining Qantas and United Airlines on the trans-Pacific in February.
However, Delta's decision this week to charge $US50 ($71) to check in a second bag on international flights from July 1 could face a passenger backlash.
United has revealed in its latest earnings briefing that it is already suffering on the route. Of its Pacific network, Australia and China suffered the biggest declines in revenue in the first quarter.
United also reinforced the extent of the slowdown by revealing that its total premium traffic fell 30 per cent in the quarter.
The biggest threat to Qantas on the route is Delta's ability to attract US customers because of its extensive US domestic network. The route has historically provided about 10 per cent of Qantas's total passenger revenue.
Qantas management suggested last week that none of the carriers will make money flying between Australia and the US in the current environment. Qantas said premium travel on the trans-Pacific and London-Australia routes had fallen about 20 per cent.
V Australia began thrice-weekly services from Brisbane to LA this month, two months after it launched daily flights from Sydney to the US. It will launch three return services a week from Melbourne in September.
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Old 22nd Apr 2009, 15:41
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Qantas will be dead in 6 months


Qantas got through The Great Depression as well as "The recession we had to have".

Also, a handful of wars/conflicts, energy/oil crises, privatisation, labour strikes, changes of Guvmint, an asian economic crisis/bubble burst, some buildings being crashed into in NYC, some birds having a cold, attempted sell-off etc, etc, etc.

Everyone have a BEX and a good lie down. !!



.

Last edited by Spanner Turner; 22nd Apr 2009 at 15:57.
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Old 22nd Apr 2009, 15:52
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"So the demand is there and … if you're the incumbent carrier this is a disaster - if you're the non-incumbent carrier, this is an opportunity," he said during Delta's first-quarter earnings briefing.

By they way, he also announced a 2009 Q1 loss of US$794 million.

Opportunity for what? To lose even more money? At this moment, seats on QF from west coast U.S. to Oz are being advertised for as low as US$550 return, just to fill empty seats. How is saturating the market even more an opportunity? Delta lost billions last year, and is on track to do the same this year. The only plus side for them is they can irresponsibly lose billions, and then cry for chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, something not available to Qantas. Maybe outlast is a good enough strategy. Definitely not an even playing field.
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Old 22nd Apr 2009, 15:59
  #108 (permalink)  
 
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another travel entity on the brink of collapse, anything like that does affect Qantas

Fresh from the oven...
THE global Stella tourism empire, which owns the Harvey World Travel chain and manages one in five Gold Coast holiday apartments, is in danger of collapse, threatening to cost banking giant UBS hundreds of millions of dollars.
Private equity firm CVC Asia Pacific and UBS are understood to have lost up to $1 billion on Stella after buying two-thirds of the struggling giant last year from the now-collapsed high-risk Gold Coast financier MFS.
Under that deal, UBS and CVC Asia Pacific pumped about $1.3billion into Stella, which controls more than 21,000 hotel rooms and 1200 travel agencies globally. That stake is now worth between $250 million and $350million, experts say.
The Australian understands accountants close to UBS have recommended the bank place Stella in receivership, or sell assets immediately, in a bid to stem further losses. If a receiver was appointed, it would be high enough in the corporate structure to allow the operating travel companies to continue to trade.
In 2007-08, Stella delivered earnings before interest, tax, amortisation and depreciation of $17 million, less than one-tenth the figure forecast by MFS before its collapse a year earlier.
In recent months, UBS has been forced to extend its loans to Stella, and CVC has allowed the travel group to postpone a $25million loan repayment.
UBS declined to comment yesterday and CVC Asia Pacific did not return calls.
Stella's expansion into the British market, which represents half its assets, has proved most costly, with spending on travel and accommodation plunging amid the economic downturn.
Stella operates the Breakfree, Peppers and Mantra Hotels holiday accommodation brands across Australia. The group also operates about 1200 travel agencies through the Harvey World Travel, Travelscene and Gullivers Travel Group. Under the direction of its founders, former Gold Coast criminal lawyers Phil Adams and Michael King, MFS expanded into the travel sector from 2005 when it merged with "management rights" operator Breakfree.
That merger, which valued the Gold Coast-based Breakfree at about $300 million, was followed a year later by MFS's acquisition of Breakfree Gold Coast rival S8 in a cash and scrip deal worth about $700 million.
The acquisitions ended almost a decade of feuding between Breakfree founder, former Sydney Swans player Tony Smith, and S8 owner Chris Scott. Each company previously attempted to take over the other.
The takeover of both groups by MFS made both Mr Smith and Mr Scott tens of millions of dollars on paper, but because a substantial portion of the payments was made in MFS shares, which subsequently collapsed, much of those gains evaporated.
Mr Smith last year sold his Gold Coast dream home, then still just a construction site on the Hedges Avenue millionaires' row, for about $30 million.
He was also forced to sell two adjoining properties at Tamarama Beach in Sydney's eastern suburbs, which he bought in 2007 for $11.3 million.
S8, which was built around buying up Gold Coast apartment rights, began to diversify in 2005 when it took over the then-listed Harvey World Travel in a deal valuing the company, which has more than 550 retail outlets in Australia, New Zealand, South Africa and Britain, at about $85million.
MFS, under Stella, continued the "vertical marketing" concept of offering everything from accommodation to booking flights, and expanded into the British market, buying the Travelbag and Travel 2 Travel 4 chains.
According to Stella's full-year accounts, its South African subsidiary had breached the terms of an $85 million loan because it had filed its accounts late.
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Old 22nd Apr 2009, 20:50
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Delta Management Idiocy

What do you when you are losing hundreds of millions of dollars?
Well if you are Delta Management you open another route that will lose you even more money.
The contribution to Deltas total revenue from the trans pacific Us/Oz route will be less than 1%.At the fares being offered it will certainly contribute to their losses.The real damge will be done to United.American carriers are not known for their service.They will run 777s on the route.While these are a nice aircraft they are no match for the luxurious A380.
The Delta CEO in describing Deltas entry as a disaster for Qantas is just being a typical over confident loud mouthed yank
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Old 22nd Apr 2009, 21:26
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Qantas got through The Great Depression as well as "The recession we had to have".

Also, a handful of wars/conflicts, energy/oil crises, privatisation, labour strikes, changes of Guvmint, an asian economic crisis/bubble burst, some buildings being crashed into in NYC, some birds having a cold, attempted sell-off etc, etc, etc.

Everyone have a BEX and a good lie down. !!

you forgot Qantas got through all of those with Zero competition on the pacific route and that route accounts for 10% of its entire bottom line.
Now there's V Aus, Delta and United to compete with, together with a tarnished safety record and the other factors like no credit flow.

you're too complacent to be lying down
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Old 22nd Apr 2009, 21:51
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KaBoom, the 380 may win compared to a 777 in the Flight Attendents perspective, but think of it from a business perspective. How much cheaper is it to operate a 777? It is not much more than half the fuel burn of a 380 on a specific route for one thing.

You may argue that pax will pay extra for the 380 and service, but you could probably afford to sell the seats on the 777 but about half what the bus could afford them for.
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Old 22nd Apr 2009, 22:02
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777's on the route with 250 bums on seats will turn a profit (a guess) and can run more regular flights if the numbers warrant and can be intermingled with domestic and other international ops. An A380, that can't be used domestically and has limited integration on other international flight ops, with 250 BOS won't be on the route for long.
Not defending Delta, but if the domestic market is slowing, new international routes utilising excess capacity makes sense. What's Qantas intending to do with the A380 if the market continues to tank? One or two flights per week won't compete against a daily service.
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Old 22nd Apr 2009, 22:27
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iriver88 [or is it JBM?],

perhaps you'd better off knowing something of the issues you pontificate about.

Qantas has always had competition on the Pacific route and strange to you as it may seem has competed with Delta on the route before.

It wasn't all that long ago that QF made no money on the route.

QF survived.

I'd be far more concerned about the airline you work for........

Lowdown,

Qantas has multiple daily flights to the US.
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Old 22nd Apr 2009, 22:33
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Thank you for pointing that out. I do the trip regularly. My travel agent has been lying to me.
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Old 22nd Apr 2009, 22:36
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Quote-

"Qantas intending to do with the A380 if the market continues to tank? One or two flights per week won't compete against a daily service."

_________

You're alluding to a situation whereby QF go from multiple daily flights to one of two a week??
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Old 22nd Apr 2009, 23:12
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The only one close to the mark is shiftpattern.

A large chunk of QF flying is going to go to jetstar branded as QF. Staff will have one choice, move to jetstar or leave. Jetstar was NEVER set up to last in its current form for more than the short term.

Jetstar is the weapon of choice to finally cut a swathe through the highly unionised and inefficient QF mainline staff.
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Old 22nd Apr 2009, 23:39
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Jetstar is the weapon of choice to finally cut a swathe through the highly unionised and inefficient QF mainline staff.
As someone who deals with Jetstar daily, let me tell you, there is NOTHING efficient about them. Unless of course, you call not having enough staff to pick up the phone, efficient.
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Old 22nd Apr 2009, 23:40
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Ditch handle, I'm just trying to stay out of hypothesising on the 6 month future of Qantas, but when someone makes a comment that one aircraft is better for the route than another based on just one aspect: luxurious services, then I can't help making a little counter-argument. There are horses for courses and the international travel market is changing rapidly. Similarly, the argument that Qantas will survive because it always has is equally myopic. There are other big companies that have become victims of circumstances and it's naive to think Qantas is not immune. The A380 is a big liability if it can't turn a profit. Other aircraft can be put on other routes, but the A380 is more specialised on route application and not as flexible. In addition, while Americans in general, are considerate, thankful and supportive to Australians, they're going to support home-grown companies first.
Personally, now that I am obliged to make a comment, I think a 6 month deadline in the title of the thread is just being provocative, however I also think a merge of Jetstar and Qantas is now very much on the cards; not to beat up on the unions as has been suggested, but for economic rationalisation. The market is contracting and Qantas/Jetstar, like many other industries, needs to rationalise to balance supply with demand. However, if a merger/absorption does happen, you can bet the Qantas/Jetstar executives will try and retain Jetstar T&C's as much as possible while retaining the Qantas name. They'd be silly if they didn't.

Last edited by Lodown; 22nd Apr 2009 at 23:53.
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Old 22nd Apr 2009, 23:44
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ditch handle - AFAIK Delta have never done the LAX - SYD Pacific route before - but I am sure Continental and American have.
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Old 22nd Apr 2009, 23:50
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Discussion around the survival of Qantas has come about due to the effects of the WFC.

The WFC is an aberration. An out of line, cyclical event. Sooner or later it will end.

Prior to the effects of the WFC [last year] Qantas reported a profit in the order of AUD $1.5 billion.

__________

Lowdown,

you claim not to want to hypothesize about the future and yet you post this-

"What's Qantas intending to do with the A380 if the market continues to tank? One or two flights per week won't compete against a daily service."

Again.

Do you seriously suggest Qantas is going to go from multiple daily flights to one or two a week ?

__________

Slice,

yes you are probably right. I was thinking of American at the time. My mistake.
The point remains however that there has always been competition on the route.....
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