Qantas will be dead in 6 months
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Qantas Will Never Die
For a variety of reasons Qantas will never die nor be allowed to die.
It employs 36000 people
The ancilliary industries its supports is most likely 10 times that.
The massive void it would create domestically and internationally would be impossible to fill in the short term(2 years).
Politically for the incumbent government its survival would be mandatory.
Letting Qantas die is not something you want to be remembered for.
Qantas has weathered other storms during its 90 year history.
Apart from resource and morale problems it is in better financial shape than 99% of its competition.
Rest assured your grandchildren will have Qantas as a choice of carrier
It employs 36000 people
The ancilliary industries its supports is most likely 10 times that.
The massive void it would create domestically and internationally would be impossible to fill in the short term(2 years).
Politically for the incumbent government its survival would be mandatory.
Letting Qantas die is not something you want to be remembered for.
Qantas has weathered other storms during its 90 year history.
Apart from resource and morale problems it is in better financial shape than 99% of its competition.
Rest assured your grandchildren will have Qantas as a choice of carrier
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QF will always be around but the staff are going to see massive change in order to survive.
Expensive oil is here to stay and the current economic problems are just the beginning.
Standby for much worse.
And yes, QF is in reasonable shape compared to many competitors.
Expensive oil is here to stay and the current economic problems are just the beginning.
Standby for much worse.
And yes, QF is in reasonable shape compared to many competitors.
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Yes, we all know everything costs more. So tell me, how come the ticket prices cost less? The sooner all airlines wake up that you can't sell tickets for less than they cost the better off we'll all be.
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For a variety of reasons Qantas will never die nor be allowed to die.
It employs 36000 people
The ancilliary industries its supports is most likely 10 times that.
The massive void it would create domestically and internationally would be impossible to fill in the short term(2 years).
Politically for the incumbent government its survival would be mandatory.
It employs 36000 people
The ancilliary industries its supports is most likely 10 times that.
The massive void it would create domestically and internationally would be impossible to fill in the short term(2 years).
Politically for the incumbent government its survival would be mandatory.
OK, Qantas won't be allowed to die. In an earlier post I predict the airline being re-nationalised instead. If the Govt has to spend the billions, the taxpayer will want something for their investment.
But if you think QF will look anything like QF now, you will be joining those commentators who think that GM and Chrysler haven't changed. The names may have survived, but GM and Chrysler are now hollow shells of their former selves in order to exist in the new commercial and economical environment.
can you therefore explain [away
] the annual AUD $1 Billion profit made by Qantas prior to the global financial crisis?
] the annual AUD $1 Billion profit made by Qantas prior to the global financial crisis?
The point of my post was not how profitable the airline industry was in the past, but more to say that in the present environment i.e. lack of cheap credit and lack of cheap oil, the airline industry is now in decline, and the vitrolic attacks on these forums seems to reflect the increasing pressure that those working in this industry are experiencing.
For what its worth, since the advent of commercial aviation, airlines in total have lost more money then they have ever earnt. Aviation may be a profitable industry, but the airline segment of the industry never has been. Want to make money in aviation, then run an airport, a catering company, ground handling company etc.
QF will always be around but the staff are going to see massive change in order to survive.
Expensive oil is here to stay and the current economic problems are just the beginning.
Standby for much worse.
Expensive oil is here to stay and the current economic problems are just the beginning.
Standby for much worse.
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Oil vs Staff
Just cause oil goes up, or anything else, does not mean people working for an airline can afford to work for less or free to off set it. They have bills that need to be paid and that also increase.
In fact they would need to inflate their wages just like people in any other industry. If their wages/remuneration cannot keep pace, I guess they will leave and work elsewhere.
If passengers do not wish to pay what it costs to fly, I don't think there are enough charitable souls out there that love working for an airline that much, to offer their services at a discount perpetually, just cause the industry isn't profitable.
If the industry is not viable it will shrink or close, staff attrition will increase, but the fact remains, if they need you (supply vs demand) they have to pay the market rate.
If oil is a problem aviation won't be the only ones changing. I suggest we will all change as we need when we need to as demand dictates.
Til then my wage will be proportional to the market demand, not some twit in mgt who sells some trumped up spin to pump his bonus!
Whilst it costs more for a cab to the airport or to park there for the day, then it does for a ticket from Sydney to Melbourne, we aint got too much to worry about.
In fact they would need to inflate their wages just like people in any other industry. If their wages/remuneration cannot keep pace, I guess they will leave and work elsewhere.
If passengers do not wish to pay what it costs to fly, I don't think there are enough charitable souls out there that love working for an airline that much, to offer their services at a discount perpetually, just cause the industry isn't profitable.
If the industry is not viable it will shrink or close, staff attrition will increase, but the fact remains, if they need you (supply vs demand) they have to pay the market rate.
If oil is a problem aviation won't be the only ones changing. I suggest we will all change as we need when we need to as demand dictates.
Til then my wage will be proportional to the market demand, not some twit in mgt who sells some trumped up spin to pump his bonus!
Whilst it costs more for a cab to the airport or to park there for the day, then it does for a ticket from Sydney to Melbourne, we aint got too much to worry about.
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The airline that passengers choose to fly with is not based on Cabin Service or air fares alone as a lot of posters on this thread believe. Look at the picture as a whole.
Look at...
-Routes the airline operates
-Price of fares
-Quality of service on the ground and in the air
-Pressure applied to pax by Travel Agent or the person/organisation paying the bill
-Terms of any contracts an organisation gains that stipulates carriers to be used
-Added benefits to the passenger (rather than his/her organisation)
There's a whole host of things to be considered... notwithstanding that everyone can improve their performance I don't care how good one is.
Calm down please.
Look at...
-Routes the airline operates
-Price of fares
-Quality of service on the ground and in the air
-Pressure applied to pax by Travel Agent or the person/organisation paying the bill
-Terms of any contracts an organisation gains that stipulates carriers to be used
-Added benefits to the passenger (rather than his/her organisation)
There's a whole host of things to be considered... notwithstanding that everyone can improve their performance I don't care how good one is.
Calm down please.
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beware the CEO/Board crying poor
agree -but this thread is really about the bigger picture.
- tracking pax movements (all airlines int & domestic) shows an aggregate increase, as does the number of operators and routes flown.
However..... overlaying yeilds, the economic logic goes south with an average 60% reduction (12 month mvt in std J & Y). To summarise, more poeple are flying with more operators to more places but are generating far less profit.
The reality of this is that the effects of rising oil prices ( although let's not all cry as a few hedged profitably) and the GFC have been accelerated by the opening up of the market, to (sometimes very undercapitalised) entities. These entities include those who are/were reliant on various concessions from State & Fed govts as well as so called "start up" dispensations and exemptions or the 'panama flag' of a foreign AOC.
These players, together with the established operators also have sought to take advantage of the adverse economic conditions to disproportionately drive down working T&C's.
For all pilots, CC and anyone working in aviation, the challenge is to sensibly provide an IR partnership that seeks to generate profits by doing other than just slashing pay & conditions as a knee jerk reaction to today's all ords index (or to preserve a CEO's bonus.)
At the same time we all need to seek greater accountability from government in relation to granting further access to Australian markets and in the granting of dispensations and exemptions.
Equally, airlines have to be placed under more scrutiny in relation to 'stat building stunts' like $39 fares.
QF's NAV & capitalisation shows that red rat tails will be perenials at the gates, albeit with a few more orange stars in between.
Reporting season ahead.
- tracking pax movements (all airlines int & domestic) shows an aggregate increase, as does the number of operators and routes flown.
However..... overlaying yeilds, the economic logic goes south with an average 60% reduction (12 month mvt in std J & Y). To summarise, more poeple are flying with more operators to more places but are generating far less profit.
The reality of this is that the effects of rising oil prices ( although let's not all cry as a few hedged profitably) and the GFC have been accelerated by the opening up of the market, to (sometimes very undercapitalised) entities. These entities include those who are/were reliant on various concessions from State & Fed govts as well as so called "start up" dispensations and exemptions or the 'panama flag' of a foreign AOC.
These players, together with the established operators also have sought to take advantage of the adverse economic conditions to disproportionately drive down working T&C's.
For all pilots, CC and anyone working in aviation, the challenge is to sensibly provide an IR partnership that seeks to generate profits by doing other than just slashing pay & conditions as a knee jerk reaction to today's all ords index (or to preserve a CEO's bonus.)
At the same time we all need to seek greater accountability from government in relation to granting further access to Australian markets and in the granting of dispensations and exemptions.
Equally, airlines have to be placed under more scrutiny in relation to 'stat building stunts' like $39 fares.
QF's NAV & capitalisation shows that red rat tails will be perenials at the gates, albeit with a few more orange stars in between.
Reporting season ahead.
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"The ancilliary industries its supports is most likely 10 times that."
This is true. But these industries would be supported by the airline that steps in to fill the shoes vacated by QF. Possibly a foreign carrier or a few foreign carriers. The curtailing of associated business when Ansett ceased operations was brief and finite. The service industry formally aligned with Ansett soon sprang back into life supporting Virgin Blue.
"The sooner all airlines wake up that you can't sell tickets for less than they cost the better off we'll all be."
It has been said before, but I will repeat it never the less. Airlines have little ability to control both the number of seats available and the price for which those seats are sold. If you advocate the raising of airfares, you must also be prepared to see a contraction in capacity, as there is very little elasticity in the business. Especially now.
"Just cause oil goes up, or anything else, does not mean people working for an airline can afford to work for less or free to off set it"
The market has little interest in your spending habits and whether or not you can afford to work for less.
"Til then my wage will be proportional to the market demand"
Not if you work for an incumbent carrier.
This is true. But these industries would be supported by the airline that steps in to fill the shoes vacated by QF. Possibly a foreign carrier or a few foreign carriers. The curtailing of associated business when Ansett ceased operations was brief and finite. The service industry formally aligned with Ansett soon sprang back into life supporting Virgin Blue.
"The sooner all airlines wake up that you can't sell tickets for less than they cost the better off we'll all be."
It has been said before, but I will repeat it never the less. Airlines have little ability to control both the number of seats available and the price for which those seats are sold. If you advocate the raising of airfares, you must also be prepared to see a contraction in capacity, as there is very little elasticity in the business. Especially now.
"Just cause oil goes up, or anything else, does not mean people working for an airline can afford to work for less or free to off set it"
The market has little interest in your spending habits and whether or not you can afford to work for less.
"Til then my wage will be proportional to the market demand"
Not if you work for an incumbent carrier.
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why don't we all realise that the Airline industry is an industry in decline, designed to operate with oil under $50 bbl.
Since the advent of the 747 aircraft airfares have been getting cheaper and cheaper....
Perhaps the philosophy of a mega aircraft such as the A 380 is a bad one in todays market and fuel prices.It might be that the airlines will go back to aircraft with smaller pax loads.The airfares will be more expensive such as they were back in the 60's and early 70's but airlines will survive.
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I could not disagree more....
Since the advent of the 747 aircraft airfares have been getting cheaper and cheaper....
Since the advent of the 747 aircraft airfares have been getting cheaper and cheaper....
Oil has only been above $50 bbl since 2005, dipping earlier this year during the GFC to the low $30's.
So high oil prices (for arguments sake, above $50 bbl) has only been in the last 4 years. Not enough to change the long-term decline in ticket prices, which were more the result of de-regulation, A scales being replaced by B scales etc. Some airlines did introduce fuel surcharges though... to not affect the low fare price.
Maybe I should have been clearer, and said the Airline Industry is now (from 2005) in decline...
I can't really see anything in your post which shows that you disagree with my contention that Airlines are in decline.
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Define Decline
Are airlines declining in number and/or profitablity.?
The number of airlines will decline over time as the inefficient leave the market.
Airline profitablity runs in cycles.Qantas is just coming off a very very profitable period.As the world economy recovers so will airline bottom lines.
The world is full of travellers.At present there is pent up demand.
Give it 12 months and you wont be able to get a seat on an aircraft and yields will improve.
Its all been seen before.
We`ve heard the doomsayers before.
Running aircraft like the A380 is a mistake.They require a flat airline cycle where airlines are continually in profit.In short they provide too much capacity.
If larger aircraft was a good idea why didnt Boeing agree?
Boeing seems to have got it right for the last 50 years.
Smaller aircraft with longer range seem more appropriate.
Like with most of these discussions time will provide the answer
The number of airlines will decline over time as the inefficient leave the market.
Airline profitablity runs in cycles.Qantas is just coming off a very very profitable period.As the world economy recovers so will airline bottom lines.
The world is full of travellers.At present there is pent up demand.
Give it 12 months and you wont be able to get a seat on an aircraft and yields will improve.
Its all been seen before.
We`ve heard the doomsayers before.
Running aircraft like the A380 is a mistake.They require a flat airline cycle where airlines are continually in profit.In short they provide too much capacity.
If larger aircraft was a good idea why didnt Boeing agree?
Boeing seems to have got it right for the last 50 years.
Smaller aircraft with longer range seem more appropriate.
Like with most of these discussions time will provide the answer
Last edited by Bad Hat Harry; 4th Jul 2009 at 11:10.
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"Want to make money in aviation, then run an airport, a catering company, ground handling company etc."
A sound statement.Why then does QF hand customer airline ground handling contracts to the competition.Citing low margins as the reason may be good cause to explore ways to increase those margins,however,despite efforts by staff to lower those costs eg smaller gangs handling multiple aircraft simultaneously, contracts continue to be lost.The wages of the ramp workers are not that great and considering they are turning a/c around with half the staff of the opposition that only leaves the cost of their support network ie management, to consider.
Shareholders should be questioning the loss of this income stream.
One senior manager was heard to state that $40 mil of income to engineering from other operators through the line maintenance dept was, in the big scheme of things a drop in the bucket.So now QF line maint has lost the majority of that income and is now overstaffed yet still no decision on the redundancies, agreed to at a time when understaffing was a problem.WTF!
A sound statement.Why then does QF hand customer airline ground handling contracts to the competition.Citing low margins as the reason may be good cause to explore ways to increase those margins,however,despite efforts by staff to lower those costs eg smaller gangs handling multiple aircraft simultaneously, contracts continue to be lost.The wages of the ramp workers are not that great and considering they are turning a/c around with half the staff of the opposition that only leaves the cost of their support network ie management, to consider.
Shareholders should be questioning the loss of this income stream.
One senior manager was heard to state that $40 mil of income to engineering from other operators through the line maintenance dept was, in the big scheme of things a drop in the bucket.So now QF line maint has lost the majority of that income and is now overstaffed yet still no decision on the redundancies, agreed to at a time when understaffing was a problem.WTF!
Why then does QF hand customer airline ground handling contracts to the competition.
Outsourced companies compete for contracts and have to be cheaper and more efficient if they want to keep them. If you're competing for a renewal of your cleaning contract, your price had better be less than the five or six others tendering. There's probably a clause allowing instant termination in the event of non performance as well. Union problems or strikes are not the airlines concern.
If you're an airline manager and that's the way your competitors are moving you'd better follow or watch them undercutting you with a lower cost base.
IF things got to the stage were a government bail out was needed you can be sure there will be strings attached. Cost cutting will be first on the list.
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Metro Man:uninformed/Misinformed
Qantas has been cost cutting for 10 years.
It has reduced its wages bill by 22% over the last 7 years.
Ground handling was/is making a profit..just not enough.
Your(Metro Man) perception of the Qantas workforce appears to be jaundiced at best.
Some of what you say was relevant ...20 years ago.
The workforce today is much more pragmatic.
Stop reading the Readers Digest and find the real facts
It has reduced its wages bill by 22% over the last 7 years.
Ground handling was/is making a profit..just not enough.
Your(Metro Man) perception of the Qantas workforce appears to be jaundiced at best.
Some of what you say was relevant ...20 years ago.
The workforce today is much more pragmatic.
Stop reading the Readers Digest and find the real facts
Obviuos my comments struck a raw nerve with a couple of Qantas Galley Hags or Fags. Firstly no I don't look like Bradd Pitt and no desire to look lke him, no I don't drink alcohol on flights, the Singaporean girls are a lot more pleasant to look at and they also treat the customer with respect and seeing I am paying that's what I expect. Qantas catering is substandard crapp basically, Qlink/Eastern food is a disgrace you pay top dollar on the Dash8 and get a muffin and a lukewarm coffee if you are lucky, but don't ask for a refill!
In January 2007 I was checking in at Melbourne and I had printed of a boarding pass at home, but joined the wrong line and soon found a Qantas employee screaming at me for being in the wrong line. I politely remarked to the rude person that if I wanted to be screamed at and shouted at in that manner I would join the army. When I finally got to the Checkin desk, I asked to speak to a supervisor or manager in relation to this incident but after waiting for 30 minutes, no one could find one. But during the same time I watched this staff member intimidate and reduce and old couple to tears for being in the wrong line and not having a boarding pass.
Hardly good for repeat business.
Another time my nav bag was to big to be carried on as cabin luggage, so the Qlink staff said it would go in the hold and come off as priority baggage in Melbourne, but I couldn't pick it up on disembarkation for 101 reasons but it would be in the baggage claim area within 15 minutes. An hour later an waiting to board another flight no bag, and again no one could give me any assistance, the supervisor was very busy avoiding me and the junior was always on his mobile. Finally one hour and twenty minutes later my bag turned up!
The $500 short notice airfare to Adelaide from Melbourne, nice flight in the A330 on time arrival but no catering provided to the punters in the middle of the aircraft for some reason.
There are many good loyal Qantas employees that work hard and have QF blood in their viens, but also a large number including managers that like to rort the system, treat the customers like dirt, don't look outside the square and see that QF does have a lot of lean mean competitors today.
In January 2007 I was checking in at Melbourne and I had printed of a boarding pass at home, but joined the wrong line and soon found a Qantas employee screaming at me for being in the wrong line. I politely remarked to the rude person that if I wanted to be screamed at and shouted at in that manner I would join the army. When I finally got to the Checkin desk, I asked to speak to a supervisor or manager in relation to this incident but after waiting for 30 minutes, no one could find one. But during the same time I watched this staff member intimidate and reduce and old couple to tears for being in the wrong line and not having a boarding pass.
Hardly good for repeat business.
Another time my nav bag was to big to be carried on as cabin luggage, so the Qlink staff said it would go in the hold and come off as priority baggage in Melbourne, but I couldn't pick it up on disembarkation for 101 reasons but it would be in the baggage claim area within 15 minutes. An hour later an waiting to board another flight no bag, and again no one could give me any assistance, the supervisor was very busy avoiding me and the junior was always on his mobile. Finally one hour and twenty minutes later my bag turned up!
The $500 short notice airfare to Adelaide from Melbourne, nice flight in the A330 on time arrival but no catering provided to the punters in the middle of the aircraft for some reason.
There are many good loyal Qantas employees that work hard and have QF blood in their viens, but also a large number including managers that like to rort the system, treat the customers like dirt, don't look outside the square and see that QF does have a lot of lean mean competitors today.
Last edited by Stationair8; 5th Jul 2009 at 01:53.
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Falling Leaf...So this is all about the price of oil is it?????
Why then was the price of airfares in comparison to the average wage so much higher before the advent of the 747?
The airlines got on the band wagon and trued to do the aviation equivalent of bulk billing....As I said this is not about the price of oil but the way in which airlines and ours in particular are structured....
It is an inverted pyramid and needs and enema to turn it upside down to where there are more indians than chiefs....
Did the airlines make a profit when there were far less people flying and airfares were higher......YES and the price of oil was much lower....instead of using aircraft that are so big they have their own postcode maybe it's time to have smaller aircraft and higher fares.....
It looks like Stationair8 is the type of passenger that likes to be fussed over and fantasize about some young asian girl.....nothing more needs to be said.
Why then was the price of airfares in comparison to the average wage so much higher before the advent of the 747?
The airlines got on the band wagon and trued to do the aviation equivalent of bulk billing....As I said this is not about the price of oil but the way in which airlines and ours in particular are structured....
It is an inverted pyramid and needs and enema to turn it upside down to where there are more indians than chiefs....
Did the airlines make a profit when there were far less people flying and airfares were higher......YES and the price of oil was much lower....instead of using aircraft that are so big they have their own postcode maybe it's time to have smaller aircraft and higher fares.....
It looks like Stationair8 is the type of passenger that likes to be fussed over and fantasize about some young asian girl.....nothing more needs to be said.