New ships for REX!!!!!!!!!!
. Source??
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A recent financial analyst review below...(not from the 'Australian')
Monketgirl...welcome. I admire your passion. I too feel that the company will weather the strorm (in what capacity that remains to be seen), but nontheless, it does not dissuade me from applying. Hopefully (for my new careers sake they make it through this tough period).
Like any company there are staffing issues and wage issues.
I have been an Intensive Care Paramedic for 10 years, and in that time, my hourly rate has 'shot up' from $19.20 to $23.00 per hr
.
I am the highest clinical level in the state, have been trained in operating theatres and perform identical procedures to that of an emergency department doctor. It is not about money for some people. Last financial year I made 65k (after 10 years at the top of the food chain).
The other people on this forum do make some valid points, which I have taken on board.
Ultimately, like I tell any new person to my industry...this is an opinion, you make up your own mind!!
The way ahead
Cash from operation for 1H08 was $18.6M, a rise of $3.3M (22%). We are predicting the cash balance to rise to $37M by year end and this is one of the enduring (and under appreciated) strengths of REX. That said, the market is focusing on short term factors, such as pilot shortages, and this has weighed heavily on the share price.
The guidance is for a flat bottom line year and that is prudent, although skewed by a number of unusual costs. In spite of the higher fuel costs and issues surrounding pilot shortages, it is conceivable that backing these items out, REX would have in fact met its original guidance of
10% uplift on last year. Adding to this is the observation that fares have continued to decline (3.6% in 1H08). If we assumed that fares were in fact increased by a mere 3%, it would lift NPAT by 7.3% in a full year (or for each 1% increase in fares, NPAT rises 2.43%). We would
suggest that this metric is not lost on the company and believe there is scope for modest fare increases as a means to improve margins and the overall bottom line.
And while conditions may be challenging due to skill shortages and spike in fuel costs, the impact on other less capitalised players is fatal. Notably, the failure of the largest competitor to Pel-Air in its core two tonne freight market is as significant as the demise of O’Connor
Airlines in the regional passenger market late last year.
The inevitable consolidation of the industry plays directly into a well capitalised and managed company like REX.
Valuation
Our valuation for REX sits at a nudge above $3.00. We use a DCF methodology and a high WACC (due in the main to the penchant for equity in preference to debt and escalation in interest costs with the 10 year bond rate currently at 6.4%). The valuation has been reduced
largely on the back of trimming this year and next year’s’ forecasts, although we maintain our conviction of strong foreword growth beyond this year for the company.
Cash from operation for 1H08 was $18.6M, a rise of $3.3M (22%). We are predicting the cash balance to rise to $37M by year end and this is one of the enduring (and under appreciated) strengths of REX. That said, the market is focusing on short term factors, such as pilot shortages, and this has weighed heavily on the share price.
The guidance is for a flat bottom line year and that is prudent, although skewed by a number of unusual costs. In spite of the higher fuel costs and issues surrounding pilot shortages, it is conceivable that backing these items out, REX would have in fact met its original guidance of
10% uplift on last year. Adding to this is the observation that fares have continued to decline (3.6% in 1H08). If we assumed that fares were in fact increased by a mere 3%, it would lift NPAT by 7.3% in a full year (or for each 1% increase in fares, NPAT rises 2.43%). We would
suggest that this metric is not lost on the company and believe there is scope for modest fare increases as a means to improve margins and the overall bottom line.
And while conditions may be challenging due to skill shortages and spike in fuel costs, the impact on other less capitalised players is fatal. Notably, the failure of the largest competitor to Pel-Air in its core two tonne freight market is as significant as the demise of O’Connor
Airlines in the regional passenger market late last year.
The inevitable consolidation of the industry plays directly into a well capitalised and managed company like REX.
Valuation
Our valuation for REX sits at a nudge above $3.00. We use a DCF methodology and a high WACC (due in the main to the penchant for equity in preference to debt and escalation in interest costs with the 10 year bond rate currently at 6.4%). The valuation has been reduced
largely on the back of trimming this year and next year’s’ forecasts, although we maintain our conviction of strong foreword growth beyond this year for the company.
Monketgirl...welcome. I admire your passion. I too feel that the company will weather the strorm (in what capacity that remains to be seen), but nontheless, it does not dissuade me from applying. Hopefully (for my new careers sake they make it through this tough period).
Like any company there are staffing issues and wage issues.
I have been an Intensive Care Paramedic for 10 years, and in that time, my hourly rate has 'shot up' from $19.20 to $23.00 per hr
.I am the highest clinical level in the state, have been trained in operating theatres and perform identical procedures to that of an emergency department doctor. It is not about money for some people. Last financial year I made 65k (after 10 years at the top of the food chain).
The other people on this forum do make some valid points, which I have taken on board.
Ultimately, like I tell any new person to my industry...this is an opinion, you make up your own mind!!
"That said, the market is focusing on short term factors, such as pilot shortages, and this has weighed heavily on the share price."
Typical beancounter analysis (my bolding and underline). All very accurate numbers wise, but completely missing the point.
The pilot shortage is not short term, and it is global. If Mr market guru had bothered to research that, then he/she may have a slightly different outlook regarding REX's long term viability. When the last of REX's experienced Captains walks out the door to the opposition, I can just hear the surprised gasps. "How the hell did that happen?"
Gidday Gavin. Hope you application is going well. Out of interest how many hours total aeronautical experience do you have? Genuine reason for me asking.
Typical beancounter analysis (my bolding and underline). All very accurate numbers wise, but completely missing the point.
The pilot shortage is not short term, and it is global. If Mr market guru had bothered to research that, then he/she may have a slightly different outlook regarding REX's long term viability. When the last of REX's experienced Captains walks out the door to the opposition, I can just hear the surprised gasps. "How the hell did that happen?"
Gidday Gavin. Hope you application is going well. Out of interest how many hours total aeronautical experience do you have? Genuine reason for me asking.
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Too right...
You need experienced Captains to run the so called ICUS programs that are being implemented. Its all well and good to bring in the cadets as the solution to the pilot shortage for the company but without the Training Captains to babysit the Cadets how do they ever expect these cadets to become captains??? CH and NH will be pretty busy if they are the last two left in 6 months.
There are also too many without the 500hrs multi slipping through the recruitment process simply to put bums on seats before the end of the financial year statement is released!
Them wages better go up soon... and how.
FMC.
There are also too many without the 500hrs multi slipping through the recruitment process simply to put bums on seats before the end of the financial year statement is released!
Them wages better go up soon... and how.
FMC.
REX has probably realised that they need faster aircraft to compete on the longer sectors with DJ's Embraer Jets and QLink's Q400's (eg Albury services) so selecting second hand Q400's make sense in these times of high fuel prices.
I don't know how they are going to crew them.
I don't know how they are going to crew them.
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Question
Question; does the Q400 require a high capacity AOC?
Also;
I'd rather e a bus driver than a journalist, at least I can sleep at night knowing I didn't publically humiliate any one and ruin their life all in the name of selling papers!
Also;
I'd rather e a bus driver than a journalist, at least I can sleep at night knowing I didn't publically humiliate any one and ruin their life all in the name of selling papers!
Going Boeing mentions REX having to compete with the DJ E170 and the QF Q400. I think that QF are (always will be) the main competition, but I wonder how well DJ are actually going with the Embraers. From what I see on the tarmac the E170s are quite often going out with very few bums on seats. I know that the jet service appeals to the pollies and government types on the CBR route, but it appears that DJ are not getting great loads on the baby jets, across the board. So do REX buy Q400s just to take on Qantas at their own game, or is it wiser to concentrate on the business that they already have. REX could then spend the money on stabilising their problem area- crewing and staff retention. The beancounters surely can see the sense of this, there must be savings and efficiencies in not constantly recruiting and training pilots and staff.
Ultimately, most will agree, bigger is not always better.
Ultimately, most will agree, bigger is not always better.
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The rumour wasn't along the lines of " An Australian Saab operator is picking up 6 DHC - 400's " was it because I am sure there has been talk on another thread which matches this but is not rex.
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High Cap AOC
yes for rpt work.
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What a load of ****e, REX can't train people on their ****e box saabs let alone introduce a new type.
I heard REX are getting smashed by the E jet, especially on Albury, heard a number of flights going out with less than ten POB frequently.
I heard REX are getting smashed by the E jet, especially on Albury, heard a number of flights going out with less than ten POB frequently.
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Monketgirl...
Really? Well, maybe these pilots do actually have in idea because they see what's going on in day to day operations and how the custumers are getting the raw end. Meanwhile "management" as they call themselves, still going about their daily business with head in sand. As long as there's air they can breath, at least one of them will curse the pilots and blame them for everything, including the sun coming up in the east, if you follow my meaning! The arrogance is remarkable. For the record, a lot of the management team are/were pilots!
And the shares going up does not mean they got it right...Telstra shares went up once; does that mean they're a well run company?
A possible reason REX still get's its planes in the air is because it was fortunate enough to pick up major routes with no competition. Hell, if the folk of Orange, Parkes, West Wylong, Cooma, etc. had another carrier to fly with, they'd have sent REX bust a year ago.
10-4 out
Shows why you guys are pilots and NOT business managers.
And the shares going up does not mean they got it right...Telstra shares went up once; does that mean they're a well run company?
A possible reason REX still get's its planes in the air is because it was fortunate enough to pick up major routes with no competition. Hell, if the folk of Orange, Parkes, West Wylong, Cooma, etc. had another carrier to fly with, they'd have sent REX bust a year ago.
10-4 out
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Fuel
business managers
On another note - its good news that they turned a proft. J* VB and QF can breath a sigh of relief that they'll still have that pool of keen applicants.
AustralianMade
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WTF?
Posts going missing from this thread?
Capt. Wally and my posts at least, maybe more. The thought police have been busy again.
Far as I can see the thread starter did not complain about thread drift.
Capt. Wally and my posts at least, maybe more. The thought police have been busy again.
Far as I can see the thread starter did not complain about thread drift.
Back on topic. (happy mods)
The Q400's are a complete furphy.
Quote:
"That will solve a few crewing problems, with a high capacity AOC, REX can put their cadets straight into the LH seat with no requirments to have any multi command time!"
Just a tad simplistic shooter.
The introduction of a new type, the training, the dissimilar crewing, HCAOC hoops, etc, etc, etc... The cost... Big millions! My sources inform me that it isn't even something being considered.
Also, the multi IFR command time is only one of the requirements for these ops. REX's AOC requires at least 2000 hours total aeronautical experience for command. Many senior, and most of the new F/O's don't even come close. As only 50% of flight time by Co-pilots can be logged towards this requirement, the bypasses are starting to bite! And the Cadets? At least 5 years after graduation just to satisfy this one requirement!
The pressure is now building on a number of levels.
The Q400's are a complete furphy.
Quote:
"That will solve a few crewing problems, with a high capacity AOC, REX can put their cadets straight into the LH seat with no requirments to have any multi command time!"
Just a tad simplistic shooter.
The introduction of a new type, the training, the dissimilar crewing, HCAOC hoops, etc, etc, etc... The cost... Big millions! My sources inform me that it isn't even something being considered.
Also, the multi IFR command time is only one of the requirements for these ops. REX's AOC requires at least 2000 hours total aeronautical experience for command. Many senior, and most of the new F/O's don't even come close. As only 50% of flight time by Co-pilots can be logged towards this requirement, the bypasses are starting to bite! And the Cadets? At least 5 years after graduation just to satisfy this one requirement!
The pressure is now building on a number of levels.