Record Oil Prices and Jobs
Grandpa Aerotart
Thylacine with all due respect...BS.
I got to the end of your post and thought "well there is 3 minutes I'll never get back".
This will take considerably longer than 3 minutes to digest.
http://new.api.org/aboutoilgas/secur...OilEPorter.pdf
As far as GST on fuel excise is concerned...that is just criminal...I am stunned that there has not been outrage Australia wide.
Supply currently exceeds demand...we know that because everyone can buy fuel whenever they need fuel...unlike the 70s when I had just bought my first car.
Supply doesn't exceed demand by much because that would just be bad management on the part of petroleum companies.
The oil close offshore in the US and in Alaska is not theory they have proved its there they are just barred from going and getting it. Ditto with the oil shale, Tar sands etc. This is not theory these are decades old recognised resources but the technology had to reach a point where it was economical to extract.
Technology reached that point in the mid 90s but the price was too low to be economical...the price was low until a few short years ago because of resource abundance.
In the 1920s they declared a well tapped out after extracting about 18-20% of the oil in that well. By the 70s it was closer to 30%. These days it ranges between 50-70%.
Think about that for a minute. That is the effect of improving technology. The peak oilers seem to believe technology will now stop improving...their theories rely on that to be true but it has never been true since the day mankind first picked up a rock and decked his nagging missus.
Trillions of barrels of oil have been discovered/become viable resources since the 70s and at extraction prices circa 1/4 of what we are currently paying PLUS oil companies get to go back and hoover double the original amount out of old wells.
Supply currently meets demand and there is no rational basis to believe that won't continue to be the case long after we, and our children, are all dead. There is no rational basis to believe technology won't continue to evolve and viable alternatives replace segments of the transport industry over time therefore reducing the demand on oil.
Yet 'fears' that supply might be a concern in the future lead, in great part, to this current oil bubble. If there is ONE thing mankind SHOULD have learned by now it is predicting the future is a wholly futile waste of time.
Fears about the future essentially NEVER eventuate and are almost wholly started by people with agendas be they media circulation or running up the share price of a carbon trading company you happen to own if you're Al Gore.
What might have worried your great, great grandfather (and no doubt made the news papers daily) if you could go back and ask him in 1900?
He worried about the mounting problem of horse **** and where would they get enough horses and what would they do with all the **** as the population grew and rode more and more horses...it'll be a catastrophy! We'll be neck deep in horse **** by 1940, it'll be a smelly nightmare and the health problems will overwhelm the ability for the govt to cope.
He worried about the mounting costs of wood for cooking and keeping his family warm in winter. He probably worried that wood was going to run out and that coal was too because they certainly didn't have the technology to extract coal the way we do today and forests were severely threatened and wood getting VERY expensive, if you lived in the cities 100 years ago, from increasing demand, diminishing resources increasingly removed from cities as they cut down trees and had to transport it further and further to supply the markets in the cities.
The technology leap from wooden sailing ships to steel steamships happened because wood (and skilled shipwright labour) was getting too bloody expensive and the right kind too rare not because they didn't like sailing ships...it was the technology they understood and mankind doesn't go looking for alternatives to what patently works unless he has no choice.
Forests are now more abundant that at anytime in the last 1000 years because mankind doesn't use timber the way he used to...it is also cheaper than it was for the same reasons.
Eventually, maybe in a 100-200 years, Oil will be the same.
Mankind has never depleted a resource whether renewable or not...never!
Why will that change?
Within 10 years or so something your great, great grandfather had never heard of and couldn't have conceived of burst onto the scene...cars...and all of a sudden horses and horse **** were no longer worrying. Then natural gas removed his worries about wood and coal. Modern use of fossil fuels cleaned up the cities enormously, improving peoples lives in all sorts of ways.
Sorry I refuse to worry about stuff that hasn't happened yet and is HIGHLY unlikely to happen.
Edited to be more readable...I was half asleep writing last night.
I got to the end of your post and thought "well there is 3 minutes I'll never get back".
This will take considerably longer than 3 minutes to digest.
http://new.api.org/aboutoilgas/secur...OilEPorter.pdf
As far as GST on fuel excise is concerned...that is just criminal...I am stunned that there has not been outrage Australia wide.
Supply currently exceeds demand...we know that because everyone can buy fuel whenever they need fuel...unlike the 70s when I had just bought my first car.
Supply doesn't exceed demand by much because that would just be bad management on the part of petroleum companies.
The oil close offshore in the US and in Alaska is not theory they have proved its there they are just barred from going and getting it. Ditto with the oil shale, Tar sands etc. This is not theory these are decades old recognised resources but the technology had to reach a point where it was economical to extract.
Technology reached that point in the mid 90s but the price was too low to be economical...the price was low until a few short years ago because of resource abundance.
In the 1920s they declared a well tapped out after extracting about 18-20% of the oil in that well. By the 70s it was closer to 30%. These days it ranges between 50-70%.
Think about that for a minute. That is the effect of improving technology. The peak oilers seem to believe technology will now stop improving...their theories rely on that to be true but it has never been true since the day mankind first picked up a rock and decked his nagging missus.
Trillions of barrels of oil have been discovered/become viable resources since the 70s and at extraction prices circa 1/4 of what we are currently paying PLUS oil companies get to go back and hoover double the original amount out of old wells.
Supply currently meets demand and there is no rational basis to believe that won't continue to be the case long after we, and our children, are all dead. There is no rational basis to believe technology won't continue to evolve and viable alternatives replace segments of the transport industry over time therefore reducing the demand on oil.
Yet 'fears' that supply might be a concern in the future lead, in great part, to this current oil bubble. If there is ONE thing mankind SHOULD have learned by now it is predicting the future is a wholly futile waste of time.
Fears about the future essentially NEVER eventuate and are almost wholly started by people with agendas be they media circulation or running up the share price of a carbon trading company you happen to own if you're Al Gore.
What might have worried your great, great grandfather (and no doubt made the news papers daily) if you could go back and ask him in 1900?
He worried about the mounting problem of horse **** and where would they get enough horses and what would they do with all the **** as the population grew and rode more and more horses...it'll be a catastrophy! We'll be neck deep in horse **** by 1940, it'll be a smelly nightmare and the health problems will overwhelm the ability for the govt to cope.
He worried about the mounting costs of wood for cooking and keeping his family warm in winter. He probably worried that wood was going to run out and that coal was too because they certainly didn't have the technology to extract coal the way we do today and forests were severely threatened and wood getting VERY expensive, if you lived in the cities 100 years ago, from increasing demand, diminishing resources increasingly removed from cities as they cut down trees and had to transport it further and further to supply the markets in the cities.
The technology leap from wooden sailing ships to steel steamships happened because wood (and skilled shipwright labour) was getting too bloody expensive and the right kind too rare not because they didn't like sailing ships...it was the technology they understood and mankind doesn't go looking for alternatives to what patently works unless he has no choice.
Forests are now more abundant that at anytime in the last 1000 years because mankind doesn't use timber the way he used to...it is also cheaper than it was for the same reasons.
Eventually, maybe in a 100-200 years, Oil will be the same.
Mankind has never depleted a resource whether renewable or not...never!
Why will that change?
Within 10 years or so something your great, great grandfather had never heard of and couldn't have conceived of burst onto the scene...cars...and all of a sudden horses and horse **** were no longer worrying. Then natural gas removed his worries about wood and coal. Modern use of fossil fuels cleaned up the cities enormously, improving peoples lives in all sorts of ways.
Sorry I refuse to worry about stuff that hasn't happened yet and is HIGHLY unlikely to happen.
Edited to be more readable...I was half asleep writing last night.
Last edited by Chimbu chuckles; 11th Jun 2008 at 23:57.
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CC, yet again - a great post. Could not agree more.
The current oil market is broken. The recent volatility is a good indication, that there are extremely speculative forces at work. It is just a matter of time until a substantial correction comes, but it will come.
Just over 2 years ago in the US, the housing market was considered a fool proof investment. All insiders were insisting, that investment in housing is unbeatable and even at those extremely elevated prices.
Today, there has been a correction of up to 50% in some areas....and the insiders are screaming doom and gloom and predicting another 20-30% down...How crazy is that?? They should have seen doom and gloom 2 years ago, not now....
The same goes for Oil...When all the experts agree, that Oil is going up and up.....it is time to think NOT (IMHO)..
The current oil market is broken. The recent volatility is a good indication, that there are extremely speculative forces at work. It is just a matter of time until a substantial correction comes, but it will come.
Just over 2 years ago in the US, the housing market was considered a fool proof investment. All insiders were insisting, that investment in housing is unbeatable and even at those extremely elevated prices.
Today, there has been a correction of up to 50% in some areas....and the insiders are screaming doom and gloom and predicting another 20-30% down...How crazy is that?? They should have seen doom and gloom 2 years ago, not now....
The same goes for Oil...When all the experts agree, that Oil is going up and up.....it is time to think NOT (IMHO)..
Silly Old Git
Mr Rudd assures Japan that there will be enough Australian mineral and gas resources to satisfy Japan China and India for the next 50 years at least
Shame Australian consumers cant get their hands on the cheap gas.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/snu...44.html?page=2
Shame Australian consumers cant get their hands on the cheap gas.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/snu...44.html?page=2
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Great post CC
Exactly tin, and that just makes me angry.
The majority of our crude is burned by land transport, where power to weight is simply not critical.
It has been proven cars can be developed to run on natural gas, and we are blessed enough as a nation to have abundant supplies. Why not pass legislation that all "non lng" cars etc sold post 2015? are subject to XX sales tax.
Watch the market forces move technology development then!
We are being taken for a ride here, remove the dependency and let them play in their sand pit.
Exactly tin, and that just makes me angry.
The majority of our crude is burned by land transport, where power to weight is simply not critical.
It has been proven cars can be developed to run on natural gas, and we are blessed enough as a nation to have abundant supplies. Why not pass legislation that all "non lng" cars etc sold post 2015? are subject to XX sales tax.
Watch the market forces move technology development then!
We are being taken for a ride here, remove the dependency and let them play in their sand pit.
Silly Old Git
Not many here would realise this but the NT (Laba) is locked into a bid to have a huge gas plant built in Darwhine harbour to service the various offshore fields
Part of the bid "sweetener" is that the NT will NOT MAKE ANY DEMANDS for the supply of gas locally
Watch your local papers,this is bigger than Ben Hur with about 15000 jobs for the start up
Plenty gas for Chinese wok burners
Not a drop of NT GAS for NTor OZ business or cars or electrickery ...nothing .
Part of the bid "sweetener" is that the NT will NOT MAKE ANY DEMANDS for the supply of gas locally
Watch your local papers,this is bigger than Ben Hur with about 15000 jobs for the start up
Plenty gas for Chinese wok burners
Not a drop of NT GAS for NTor OZ business or cars or electrickery ...nothing .
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Hey Tin.... Get out there and lead the charge!
And what does Mr BP have to say? Its not about lack of resorces, its been lack of investment in plant...............
Read here
http://money.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=578580
J
And what does Mr BP have to say? Its not about lack of resorces, its been lack of investment in plant...............
Read here
http://money.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=578580
J
Silly Old Git
Automakers invest fortunes to devise catchy car names. To help out tiny global titan Toyota - evidently so broke it requires Australian government assistance - readers suggest the following titles for the company’s forthcoming tax hybrid:
• Toyota Prissy
• Toyota Pious
• Toyota Kevin
• Toyota K07
• Toyota Camrudd
• Toyota Ekowa Nk
• Toyota Smug
• Toyota Lip-licker
• Kar that Runs on Undercooked Dagwood Dogs
• Toyota Waxgobbler
• Toymota SH’OUSE
• Toyota Ecowan
• Toyota KRuduss
And the winner thus far, from reader Pickles:
• Toyota P76
(Art by Dave)
http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/timblair/
• Toyota Prissy
• Toyota Pious
• Toyota Kevin
• Toyota K07
• Toyota Camrudd
• Toyota Ekowa Nk
• Toyota Smug
• Toyota Lip-licker
• Kar that Runs on Undercooked Dagwood Dogs
• Toyota Waxgobbler
• Toymota SH’OUSE
• Toyota Ecowan
• Toyota KRuduss
And the winner thus far, from reader Pickles:
• Toyota P76
(Art by Dave)
http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/timblair/
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By Paul Craig Roberts who is a former Assistant Secretary of the US Treasury and former associate editor of the Wall Street Journal, has been reporting shocking cases of prosecutorial abuse for two decades:
11/06/08 "ICH" -- - How to explain the oil price? Why is it so high? Are we running out? Are supplies disrupted, or is the high price a reflection of oil company greed or OPEC greed. Are Chavez and the Saudis conspiring against us?
In my opinion, the two biggest factors in oil’s high price are the weakness in the US dollar’s exchange value and the liquidity that the Federal Reserve is pumping out.
The dollar is weak because of large trade and budget deficits, the closing of which is beyond American political will. As abuse wears out the US dollar’s reserve currency role, sellers demand more dollars as a hedge against its declining exchange value and ultimate loss of reserve currency status.
In an effort to forestall a serious recession and further crises in derivative instruments, the Federal Reserve is pouring out liquidity that is financing speculation in oil futures contracts. Hedge funds and investment banks are restoring their impaired capital structures with profits made by speculating in highly leveraged oil future contracts, just as real estate speculators flipping contracts pushed up home prices. The oil futures bubble, too, will pop, hopefully before new derivatives are created on the basis of high oil prices.
There are other factors affecting the price of oil. The prospect of an Israeli/US attack on Iran has increased current demand in order to build stocks against disruption. No one knows the consequence of such an ill-conceived act of aggression, and the uncertainty pushes up the price of oil as the entire Middle East could be engulfed in conflagration. However, storage facilities are limited, and the impact on price of larger inventories has a limit.
Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi recently stated, “There is no justification for the current rise in prices.” What the minister means is that there are no shortages or supply disruptions. He means no real reasons as distinct from speculative or psychological reasons.
The run up in oil price coincides with a period of heightened US and Israeli military aggression in the Middle East. However, the biggest jump has been in the last 18 months.
When Bush invaded Iraq in 2003, the average price of oil that year was about $27 per barrel, or about $31 in inflation adjusted 2007 dollars. The price rose another $10 in 2004 to an average annual price of $42 (in 2007 dollars), another $12 in 2005, $7 in 2006, and $4 in 2007 to $65. But in the last few months the price has more than doubled to about $135. It is difficult to explain a $70 jump in price in terms other than speculation.
Oil prices have been high in the past. Until 2008, the record monthly oil price was $104 in December 1979 (measured in December 2007 dollars). As recently as 1998 the real price of oil was lower than in 1946 when the nominal price of oil was $1.63 per barrel. During the Bush regime, the price of oil in 2007 dollars has risen from $27 to approximately $135. (see http://inflationdata.com/inflation/I...ices_Table.asp )
Possibly, the rise in the oil price was held down, prior to the recent jump, by expectations that Democrats would eventually end the conflict and restrain Israel in the interest of Middle East peace and justice for the Palestinians. Now that Obama has pledged allegiance to AIPAC and adopted Bush’s position toward Iran, the high oil price could be a forecast that US/Israeli policy is likely to result in substantial supply disruptions. Still, the recent Israeli statements that an attack on Iran was “inevitable” only jumped the oil price about $8.
Perhaps more difficult to understand than the high price of oil is the low US long term interest rates. US interest rates are actually below the rate of inflation, to say nothing of the imperiled exchange value of the dollar. Economists who assume rational participants in rational markets cannot explain why lenders would indefinitely accept interest rates below the rate of inflation.
Of course, Americans don’t get real inflation numbers from their government and have not since the Consumer Price Index was rigged during the Clinton administration to hold down Social Security payments by denying retirees their full cost of living adjustments. According to statistician John Williams ( www.shadowstats.com ), using the pre-Clinton era measure of the CPI produces a current CPI of about 7.5%.
Understating inflation makes real GDP growth appear higher. If inflation were properly measured, the US has probably experienced no real GDP growth in the 21st century.
Williams reports that for decades political administrations have fiddled with the inflation and employment numbers to make themselves look slightly better. The cumulative effect has been to deprive these measurements of veracity. If I understand Williams, today both inflation and unemployment rates, as originally measured, are around 12%.
By pumping out money in an effort to forestall recession and paper over balance sheet problems, the Federal Reserve is driving up commodity and food prices in general. Yet American real incomes are not growing. Even without jobs offshoring, US economic policy has put the bulk of the population on a path to lower living standards.
The crisis that looms for the US is the loss of world currency role. Once the dollar loses that role, the US government will not be able to finance its operations by borrowing abroad, and foreigners will cease to finance the massive US trade deficit. This crisis will eliminate the US as a world power.
11/06/08 "ICH" -- - How to explain the oil price? Why is it so high? Are we running out? Are supplies disrupted, or is the high price a reflection of oil company greed or OPEC greed. Are Chavez and the Saudis conspiring against us?
In my opinion, the two biggest factors in oil’s high price are the weakness in the US dollar’s exchange value and the liquidity that the Federal Reserve is pumping out.
The dollar is weak because of large trade and budget deficits, the closing of which is beyond American political will. As abuse wears out the US dollar’s reserve currency role, sellers demand more dollars as a hedge against its declining exchange value and ultimate loss of reserve currency status.
In an effort to forestall a serious recession and further crises in derivative instruments, the Federal Reserve is pouring out liquidity that is financing speculation in oil futures contracts. Hedge funds and investment banks are restoring their impaired capital structures with profits made by speculating in highly leveraged oil future contracts, just as real estate speculators flipping contracts pushed up home prices. The oil futures bubble, too, will pop, hopefully before new derivatives are created on the basis of high oil prices.
There are other factors affecting the price of oil. The prospect of an Israeli/US attack on Iran has increased current demand in order to build stocks against disruption. No one knows the consequence of such an ill-conceived act of aggression, and the uncertainty pushes up the price of oil as the entire Middle East could be engulfed in conflagration. However, storage facilities are limited, and the impact on price of larger inventories has a limit.
Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi recently stated, “There is no justification for the current rise in prices.” What the minister means is that there are no shortages or supply disruptions. He means no real reasons as distinct from speculative or psychological reasons.
The run up in oil price coincides with a period of heightened US and Israeli military aggression in the Middle East. However, the biggest jump has been in the last 18 months.
When Bush invaded Iraq in 2003, the average price of oil that year was about $27 per barrel, or about $31 in inflation adjusted 2007 dollars. The price rose another $10 in 2004 to an average annual price of $42 (in 2007 dollars), another $12 in 2005, $7 in 2006, and $4 in 2007 to $65. But in the last few months the price has more than doubled to about $135. It is difficult to explain a $70 jump in price in terms other than speculation.
Oil prices have been high in the past. Until 2008, the record monthly oil price was $104 in December 1979 (measured in December 2007 dollars). As recently as 1998 the real price of oil was lower than in 1946 when the nominal price of oil was $1.63 per barrel. During the Bush regime, the price of oil in 2007 dollars has risen from $27 to approximately $135. (see http://inflationdata.com/inflation/I...ices_Table.asp )
Possibly, the rise in the oil price was held down, prior to the recent jump, by expectations that Democrats would eventually end the conflict and restrain Israel in the interest of Middle East peace and justice for the Palestinians. Now that Obama has pledged allegiance to AIPAC and adopted Bush’s position toward Iran, the high oil price could be a forecast that US/Israeli policy is likely to result in substantial supply disruptions. Still, the recent Israeli statements that an attack on Iran was “inevitable” only jumped the oil price about $8.
Perhaps more difficult to understand than the high price of oil is the low US long term interest rates. US interest rates are actually below the rate of inflation, to say nothing of the imperiled exchange value of the dollar. Economists who assume rational participants in rational markets cannot explain why lenders would indefinitely accept interest rates below the rate of inflation.
Of course, Americans don’t get real inflation numbers from their government and have not since the Consumer Price Index was rigged during the Clinton administration to hold down Social Security payments by denying retirees their full cost of living adjustments. According to statistician John Williams ( www.shadowstats.com ), using the pre-Clinton era measure of the CPI produces a current CPI of about 7.5%.
Understating inflation makes real GDP growth appear higher. If inflation were properly measured, the US has probably experienced no real GDP growth in the 21st century.
Williams reports that for decades political administrations have fiddled with the inflation and employment numbers to make themselves look slightly better. The cumulative effect has been to deprive these measurements of veracity. If I understand Williams, today both inflation and unemployment rates, as originally measured, are around 12%.
By pumping out money in an effort to forestall recession and paper over balance sheet problems, the Federal Reserve is driving up commodity and food prices in general. Yet American real incomes are not growing. Even without jobs offshoring, US economic policy has put the bulk of the population on a path to lower living standards.
The crisis that looms for the US is the loss of world currency role. Once the dollar loses that role, the US government will not be able to finance its operations by borrowing abroad, and foreigners will cease to finance the massive US trade deficit. This crisis will eliminate the US as a world power.
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Am I the only one asking what the Labor Party and sometimes rather aptly named "The Left's" reaction would have been had a Liberal (=conservative) Prime Minister had just promised $70 million to a foreign motor vehicle corporation?
.... to build more of those awful non public transport motor cars?
I get embarrassed every time I see the man spouting forth on television.
.... to build more of those awful non public transport motor cars?
I get embarrassed every time I see the man spouting forth on television.
Silly Old Git
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Thanks for the history lesson CC. The smell of Avgas can be a heady mixture on which to deny the evidence but I suspect it is an understandable survival mechanism when to consider the alternative is just too daunting.
Last edited by Thylacine; 12th Jun 2008 at 05:52.
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Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi recently stated, “There is no justification for the current rise in prices.”
Get rich quick or burn trying. The oil reserves are getting that full that it is going to be one heck of a fire!
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I mean really, justify an $8 rise in one day thylacine, please?
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missing the point
I think the point of this tread has been missed by a sector or two... The point being what will happen to airlines and thus jobs (for people in training and of low seniority especially) if oil does remain at it's current price or increases further?
Will jobs be lost? If so what's the $price that will tip us over the edge?
Or will passengers simply wear higher ticket prices and keep travelling? And how much of an increase can people bear before they cut their travel plans?
Should aspiring pilots give up the dream or soldier on in the hope of having a job after spending mega bucks on training?
What will the industry look like in 1,2,5 yrs time?
You can argue till you're blue in the face about tommorrows oil price and unless you have a crystal ball you're just speculating.
Will jobs be lost? If so what's the $price that will tip us over the edge?
Or will passengers simply wear higher ticket prices and keep travelling? And how much of an increase can people bear before they cut their travel plans?
Should aspiring pilots give up the dream or soldier on in the hope of having a job after spending mega bucks on training?
What will the industry look like in 1,2,5 yrs time?
You can argue till you're blue in the face about tommorrows oil price and unless you have a crystal ball you're just speculating.
Grandpa Aerotart
We are already at the price that devastates the industry if sustained...just look at the US.
If this is enough to convince people to 'give up on the dream' then they don't want to fly bad enough/are attracted to the industry for the wrong reasons and we don't want them.
I started in 1980...in the midst of the last oil crisis...it never even occurred to me to ever give up.
If this is enough to convince people to 'give up on the dream' then they don't want to fly bad enough/are attracted to the industry for the wrong reasons and we don't want them.
I started in 1980...in the midst of the last oil crisis...it never even occurred to me to ever give up.
Saudis already promising to increase production, is this enough to burst the bubble and bring oil back to it's real price of $80 - $90 a barrel ?
It just takes one or two traders to panic and try to cut their losses when they realise they've bought too high to start the stampeed of selling.
It just takes one or two traders to panic and try to cut their losses when they realise they've bought too high to start the stampeed of selling.
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If this is enough to convince people to 'give up on the dream' then they don't want to fly bad enough/are attracted to the industry for the wrong reasons and we don't want them.
I started in 1980...in the midst of the last oil crisis...it never even occurred to me to ever give up.
I started in 1980...in the midst of the last oil crisis...it never even occurred to me to ever give up.
Definately gives some hope to continue with my licenses
Silly Old Git
Dear Leader has OPEC quaking with fear...
