Crew missing as Convair 580 crashes near Wellington
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Further to the comments regarding Mr Bloxham, did anyone on this forum see "The Sunday Star Times" assertions that the crew headed out to sea in order to not potentially endanger populated areas.
Being of the 'Aviation Enthusiast', rather than the 'Aviation Professional' persuasion, and with the utmost respect to the missing crew, their families and peers, the question I ask is how likely/feasible/plausible is that notion? I would have thought it unlikely, but I am no expert.
Are people on the ground a factor in decision making during emergencies?
I noted that no 'expert' was quoted as having this opinion, which leads me to think it is merely an editorial excuse for a good headline.
Being of the 'Aviation Enthusiast', rather than the 'Aviation Professional' persuasion, and with the utmost respect to the missing crew, their families and peers, the question I ask is how likely/feasible/plausible is that notion? I would have thought it unlikely, but I am no expert.
Are people on the ground a factor in decision making during emergencies?
I noted that no 'expert' was quoted as having this opinion, which leads me to think it is merely an editorial excuse for a good headline.
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Hit'em
Sometimes an aircraft may have the inability to maintain altitude while retaining the ability to steer (for-example-but-not-limited-to total power loss). In this case, avoiding the populated area is the best option.
My priorities (which I hope I never have to use) in an emergency of that nature are:
1. My safety, because if I survive, so will my passengers. If this cannot be guaranteed, then:
2. Save as many lives as possible i.e. miss buildings and populated areas.
If I can't touch the ground at normal landing rate of descent and/or attitude, then while in the air I assume I probably won't survive (but I'll damn well try if I wake up on the ground!) so I might as well leave the good folks on the ground to their peace.
I hope I never have to think about that for real. Condolences to the families.
Sometimes an aircraft may have the inability to maintain altitude while retaining the ability to steer (for-example-but-not-limited-to total power loss). In this case, avoiding the populated area is the best option.
My priorities (which I hope I never have to use) in an emergency of that nature are:
1. My safety, because if I survive, so will my passengers. If this cannot be guaranteed, then:
2. Save as many lives as possible i.e. miss buildings and populated areas.
If I can't touch the ground at normal landing rate of descent and/or attitude, then while in the air I assume I probably won't survive (but I'll damn well try if I wake up on the ground!) so I might as well leave the good folks on the ground to their peace.
I hope I never have to think about that for real. Condolences to the families.
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Without trying to predetermine the cause of this accident, I have the feeling that poor old BC has picked up an enormous amount of ice, probably more than the aircraft can handle, has probably turned away from the area, as you would, and due to the increased weight and higher wing loading put the aircraft in an over stressed, unrecoverable position which has caused the aircraft to break up.
You have to have experienced the massive ice build up that can occur in the Paraparaumu - Otaki area to understand where I am coming from and I suspect judging by the conditions that were in that area at that time, that severe icing may have been the order of the day.
It is not a nice experience to have a massive ice build up, which can occur in seconds, even with the deicing working overtime, and feeling the the approaching buffet of a stall.
The only recovery I might add is to descend gaining whatever speed you can, without turning to prevent increasing the stalling speed, until you have sufficient speed to safely turn away.
You have to have experienced the massive ice build up that can occur in the Paraparaumu - Otaki area to understand where I am coming from and I suspect judging by the conditions that were in that area at that time, that severe icing may have been the order of the day.
It is not a nice experience to have a massive ice build up, which can occur in seconds, even with the deicing working overtime, and feeling the the approaching buffet of a stall.
The only recovery I might add is to descend gaining whatever speed you can, without turning to prevent increasing the stalling speed, until you have sufficient speed to safely turn away.
Hit'em - unlikely I think in their situation. The only time I would think about avoiding populated areas would be when a controlled forced landing was inevitable - even then a soccer field surrounded by houses looks a much better bet than a steep hillside.
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Good onya , chicken six (whatever!)...
the cretins down the back love to know that an ace like you is up the the front and knows exactly what to do when things go pear shaped! God help us all!
Now, on to more serious stuff...
did this thing have radar?
the cretins down the back love to know that an ace like you is up the the front and knows exactly what to do when things go pear shaped! God help us all!
Now, on to more serious stuff...
did this thing have radar?
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That Les Bloxham is an absolute clown. He is just another of those wannabe, armchair aviation experts that allways seem to surface at a time like this seeking self glorification and importance at the expense of a couple of guys who are now not around to defend themselves. 
Disregard him.
Disregard him.
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Do you think if the crew noticed aircraft performance deterioration(ie ice)they may have talked to ATC.Having had the crap scared out of me many moons ago in a turboprop Otaki-Ferry,yes ice build up can be sudden but not that quickly an experienced crew would not recognise it.Especially as it was forecast and the boys had flown the route for years.
What was the last radar trace rate of descent?(Maybe the largest peice of airframe)
THERE WERE NO ATC COMMS!
What was the last radar trace rate of descent?(Maybe the largest peice of airframe)
THERE WERE NO ATC COMMS!
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Hi everyone,
Jan has asked me to pass on her thanks to you all for the kind words of support for BC and Paul. It has certainly been a hard few days for us all. This is something that no-one expected and why to someone like Barry.
As for the so called aviation expert, idiot, ******** and the other expletives are to kinder discription.
Let the real experts do their job and don't give the families more heartache than what they are already going through.
Once again everyone ; thanks a lot.
Jan has asked me to pass on her thanks to you all for the kind words of support for BC and Paul. It has certainly been a hard few days for us all. This is something that no-one expected and why to someone like Barry.
As for the so called aviation expert, idiot, ******** and the other expletives are to kinder discription.
Let the real experts do their job and don't give the families more heartache than what they are already going through.
Once again everyone ; thanks a lot.
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I wonder if Ohakea had primary radar they would be able to give a better picture of the events that unfolded? I could be wrong but...............
I add the following NOTAM.
"B2371/03 FROM: 03/08/19 04:29 TO: 03/10/29 11:00
NZ03,NZ04,NZ05
OHAKEA PRI RADAR COMPLETELY WITHDRAWN WEF 0500 UTC 31 AUG 2003.
RADAR FLT INFO SER AVBL SSR ONLY WI OHAKEA CONTROLLED AIRSPACE
AND PALMERSTON NORTH CTR/D. AIP WILL BE AMENDED"
I add the following NOTAM.
"B2371/03 FROM: 03/08/19 04:29 TO: 03/10/29 11:00
NZ03,NZ04,NZ05
OHAKEA PRI RADAR COMPLETELY WITHDRAWN WEF 0500 UTC 31 AUG 2003.
RADAR FLT INFO SER AVBL SSR ONLY WI OHAKEA CONTROLLED AIRSPACE
AND PALMERSTON NORTH CTR/D. AIP WILL BE AMENDED"
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Hi Guys,
Is it thought to be correct as reported that the secondary radar returns from the flight were suddenly lost and (at the same time?) the primary radar showed the aircraft in an unexpected turn? The aircraft entered a steep dive which looks like it continued into the sea - the parts found remote from the impact area might have come off on the way down. There was no distress call received? and up until the loss of SSR, the flight had been progressing normally?
Is it thought to be correct as reported that the secondary radar returns from the flight were suddenly lost and (at the same time?) the primary radar showed the aircraft in an unexpected turn? The aircraft entered a steep dive which looks like it continued into the sea - the parts found remote from the impact area might have come off on the way down. There was no distress call received? and up until the loss of SSR, the flight had been progressing normally?
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MM: In this particular case the now-decommissioned Ohakea PSR would not have helped any more than the Wellington PSR at Hawkins Hill. This radar can see down to near sea level in the PP area, as could the Ohakea PSR, which, as I recall, was very handy when trying to fly NDB approaches into PP.
Doesn't excuse the decommissioning of Ohakea PSR though - a short-sighted but expected decision from the Air Force bean counters, and certainly if the accident sequence had occurred much further north, may very well have been useful.
MrN: The SSR data disappeared from the screen as the Mode C read F145 in descent. The controller was looking right at it when it occurred. The primary only target then made a slight right turn toward the coast, then it disappeared. Not sure for how long the primary target was visible after the SSR data was lost.
There were no indications of anything untoward prior to the dropout of the SSR data. No non-normal transmissions were made by the crew.
It is not known at this time whether the aircraft entered a steep dive. Only a small portion of the wreckage has been recovered. The crew remain missing, as do the data recorders.
Doesn't excuse the decommissioning of Ohakea PSR though - a short-sighted but expected decision from the Air Force bean counters, and certainly if the accident sequence had occurred much further north, may very well have been useful.
MrN: The SSR data disappeared from the screen as the Mode C read F145 in descent. The controller was looking right at it when it occurred. The primary only target then made a slight right turn toward the coast, then it disappeared. Not sure for how long the primary target was visible after the SSR data was lost.
There were no indications of anything untoward prior to the dropout of the SSR data. No non-normal transmissions were made by the crew.
It is not known at this time whether the aircraft entered a steep dive. Only a small portion of the wreckage has been recovered. The crew remain missing, as do the data recorders.
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Heard on the radio this morning, unconfirmed, that the families have been informed of the possibility of the wreckage being located. They then went on to say that previous sonar returns of large objects that might have been wreckage, were in fact found to be large logs or boulders on the bottom. The divers are working in trying conditions with strong currents and visibility reducing to 1 metre. The search area being 12 square kms.
Might have more info by the end of the day. Hope that helps
cheers
Might have more info by the end of the day. Hope that helps
cheers
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MrN: The SSR data disappeared from the screen as the Mode C read F145 in descent. The controller was looking right at it when it occurred. The primary only target then made a slight right turn toward the coast, then it disappeared. Not sure for how long the primary target was visible after the SSR data was lost.
The crew had just acknowledged a descent clearance to 7000 feet and were about to check the ATIS at Palmy when the transponder died. There was no mention of any weather or any other abnormality.
The aircraft was tracking on Foxton without any deviation and the groundspeed appeared perfectly normal.
I think we'll have to wait and see what the investigators find. I certainly hope they recover enough to determine what occurred.
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YDFD: Thanks for the clarification. I was hoping someone from OH would read and correct if necessary. My information is indeed, second hand, and apologies wrt "slight right turn". That is the information I had.
As for the look down to 1500 feet, my memory is getting a bit faded now, but I do recall in the days of the old SRE/NDB approach into PP, (prior to SSR) we used to get radar traffic down to the PP circuit, hence my comment "nearly to sea level"
Could you please further clarify "coasted" just to help us visualise further what the aircraft appeared to do - that is, did it track normally "coasting", then one minute after the SSR failed it appeared to make the sharp left turn?
Your final comment is of course valid, and most posts here try to avoid doing that, or at the very least inform any journos here that that idiot Les Bloxham, who bills himself as a retired pilot, and who seems to be the first person the media call (or is that the other way around) is a complete self-aggrandising (bit like that other buffoon, so-called aviation "specialist" Peter Clark) fool who should stay retired.
As for the look down to 1500 feet, my memory is getting a bit faded now, but I do recall in the days of the old SRE/NDB approach into PP, (prior to SSR) we used to get radar traffic down to the PP circuit, hence my comment "nearly to sea level"
Could you please further clarify "coasted" just to help us visualise further what the aircraft appeared to do - that is, did it track normally "coasting", then one minute after the SSR failed it appeared to make the sharp left turn?
Your final comment is of course valid, and most posts here try to avoid doing that, or at the very least inform any journos here that that idiot Les Bloxham, who bills himself as a retired pilot, and who seems to be the first person the media call (or is that the other way around) is a complete self-aggrandising (bit like that other buffoon, so-called aviation "specialist" Peter Clark) fool who should stay retired.
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Thanks to all who have posted with the very best intentions. Many of us overseas are very interested in this for family and personal reasons. Esp some who are now with DHL in Belguim (ex-Airfreight). Good/honest info is hard to come by!
I thought the PP SRE/NDB only got us down to 1500ft (in the Blunty?)
ConvairNZ: Rgds to all and thanks very much from Frank. I know he is keen to hear more and saddened by this tragedy; I will pass any info on. PM me if you wish.
Have to ask YDFD....what do you mean "coasted on a bearing of 010 PP"...... to the NBD? 4.5Nm @ 240TAS is 1.1mins....thats an awful long 'coast'..........
I have to assume Les was intoxicated to make such an idiotic remark/assumption. Im sure he is staying low nowadays!
Rgds
I thought the PP SRE/NDB only got us down to 1500ft (in the Blunty?)
ConvairNZ: Rgds to all and thanks very much from Frank. I know he is keen to hear more and saddened by this tragedy; I will pass any info on. PM me if you wish.
Have to ask YDFD....what do you mean "coasted on a bearing of 010 PP"...... to the NBD? 4.5Nm @ 240TAS is 1.1mins....thats an awful long 'coast'..........
I have to assume Les was intoxicated to make such an idiotic remark/assumption. Im sure he is staying low nowadays!
Rgds