US shutdown. ATC getting close to breaking point?
 

The inference is that our colleagues across the pond are phoning in sick and picking up a “McJob” to raise cash while they’re not being paid.

BBC story

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cm277455158o

We have just passed " non paid" period...I would say that the most common feeling was ..." we are not guilty- why there is no money..."
So, I could understand FAA coleagues..

My question is another: How did you manage 90% of traffic if 80% of people was on sick leave?"

NYT reports that Duffy is about to shut down parts of the National Airspace System

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/04/u...pY_yOiDOAr35Wg

"For his part, Mr. Duffy, the transportation secretary, warned of “mass chaos” in the skies.“You will see mass chaos, you will see mass flight delays, you will see mass cancellations,” he said during a news conference, accusing Democrats of perpetuating what he called a “senseless shutdown.”

“And you may see us close certain parts of the airspace because we just cannot manage it because we don’t have the air traffic controllers,” he said."

Up to 10% reduction in flights next week.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2kp8dex14xo

I'm sure this will not help the long term situation. Under these circumstances does OJT and general training continue?

If not the future controller shortage will be made much worse. Reducing training at any point creates issues further on.

At first I thought this was a hoax, but no, it seems to be real:


The Twitter/X message, in case it's not shown automatically:

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....06566ecd0f.png
https://www.flightaware.com/live/fli...657Z/KJFK/KORF

If that is a trend , it is worrying as there are normally a lot of VFR below 10.000 ft and in class E no radio communications is not required for VFR , and transponders are not mandatory either Not a very good idea to put an airliner doing 400Kts cruising in that airspace I would say .

In fairness, 2 years ago I did JFK-DCA at 8000 due to weather related airspace management. Was actually a lovely flight to be on if a bit weird.

As a side effect here, surely the knock on effect is that commuting crew are going to find it increasingly hard to get to their bases to actually operate the flights that are going?

In this case he would be doing 250Kts, but that's still a lot faster than most GA. And a late arrival to boot.

Can't you ask to wave the 250 speed restriction in the US ? we can in Europe , and it is done rather regularly.
But even at 250 Kts seeing an avoiding a glider doing 60Kts using the cockpit windows of a E170 is not that evident not to mention the maneuverability , an E170 is not an F16.. .

In class A that’s fine but I think we’re talking about class E (and G) here?

In 1965, I successfully missed a Britannia whilst in the equivalent of Class E airspace while soaring over Bovingdon at 35kts, the base being 1500ft amsl and the bottom of the 'Class E' being 5000ft amsl. I was helped because I was open cockpit so I could hear the Britannia coming; I don''t think he saw me.

Nothing to stop an operator filing an IFR flight plan in Class E airspace however I'm thinking in terms of UK rules rather than USA rules.

No of course not ., also in the US , it is not filing an IFR PLN which is the issue for me but doing so with a fast jet at low altitude. Although E is officially a "controlled: airspace , separation with VFR is not assured, It is one thing to cross it climbing or descending , as done regularly , but a bit less for an Airliner cruising for over an hour in it at low altitude

There must be a critical mass of controllers in an organisation. Once you drop below it permanent flow restrictions could be in place for a number of years.

The less experienced at the coal face the more difficult training becomes and with system upgrades the experienced controllers required for development and new system training - things could get critical very easily.

Not allowing for the people who move to greener pastures as things deteriorate.

One thing I observed over the years is that training can be the weakest link. The positive - strict flow regulations might make the training OJT easier.

I heard that DT is recommending that dissatisfied Controllers leave the service - that'll help.

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....24c9915c0.jpeg
No idea how the ATC system works or the professionalism of those who work in it. 🙄

What utter nonsense!

In the light of the BBCAffair; is this real ? Who knows, nowadays ? If this is just another attempt to make Trump seem foolish, please refrain from posting any bogus quotes attributable to Trump. He is more than capable of establishing his stupidity without any help from anyone else. If this is a genuine quote; the mind boggles ! How is he going to “quickly replace”ATCOs, for one thing ?

Here's the post: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldT...26123205979749

Realisation that the political game of 'who blinks first' may have actual real world safety ramifications, yet every year we see the same thing repeated. Is there no better alternative?
Do we really deserve the politicians we vote for?

only one exception applies.

Occupied states. Some of them- have better goverment provided by occupator - than their own.

​​​​​​​And last, but not least- ATC system of some particular state- exactly reflects that state. No exception.

'Quickly replaced?'

Well , shutdown is over , money due will come in a few weeks , but is the problem it caused solved ?
The lid of the pandora box has been lifted, it is definitively not with this kind of statement that you are going to close it again .

I think not....It may well be that major collapse is on its way...

Great article here > https://reason.org/aviation-policy-n...ment-shutdown/

kontrolor, That is a very good article indeed. In a past life, I was closely involved in the interactions between airspace users and ANSPs, and in proposing institutional models that would improve and safeguard their efficiency. There are many better business models than the one currently emplyed in the US, the Nav Canada one is a very good example to follow.

The two most important things that are needed are (1) to separate service provision from regulatory oversight (a regulator 'in bed' with the service provider is not a healthy situation), and (2) to provide the ANSP with a revenue stream separate from the whims of politicians.

It won't happen.

It is against bussines aviation interests- so unless something else is offered ( I suppose increased tax on every airliner ticket)- it will be status quo.

With all risks related to such mess.

on NBAA this part of the article explains why .
You can add AOPA lobby in there and indeed it will be difficult to move this in the current administration , But they won't be in power for ever . Once people are prevented to travel freely around the country ,lobbies power will move and policies may change. Who would have bet a year ago to see the current New York mayor getting elected ?