Wirraway
23rd Jul 2003, 06:59
Wed "Melbourne Age"
Qantas recovery starts to lift off
July 23 2003
By Scott Rochfort
Sydney
With the worst of the severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemic now behind it, Qantas reported yesterday that international passenger numbers in May had fallen by almost one-fifth.
With analysts now locking in their consensus forecasts for the airline to report a full-year net profit of $345 million next month, Qantas said international passenger numbers for May were down 18.5 per cent compared with 12 months earlier, with domestic numbers up 0.5 per cent. Qantas carried 2.13 million passengers in May 2003, down 6.2 per cent on May 2002.
For the 11 months to the end of May, Qantas carried 26.75 million passengers, up 7 per cent on the previous period, with international passenger numbers down 2 per cent.
The managing director of the Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation, Peter Harbison, said despite the latest passenger figures, Qantas had been "steaming along" following the easing in the SARS crisis and recent rise in the Australian dollar. A big positive was that load factors had declined only marginally.
With the airline slashing its international services by 20 per cent during the height of the SARS crisis, Qantas said international yields were up 2.2 per cent in May. Domestic yields, however, fell 6 per cent.
With the international figures in line with Sydney Airport's figures for May (down 18.5 per cent), analysts said Qantas could fully recover from the impact of the Iraq war and SARS far quicker than the three to six months first predicted.
Sydney Airport reported an 11.6 per cent decline in international traffic in June, with preliminary data pointing to a 4 per cent decline so far this month.
"The Sydney data is pushing to a very sharp recovery. Sydney's figures will tip across to Qantas," one analyst said.
With the Sydney figures pointing to a full recovery in year-on-year passenger numbers by August, the 40,000 international rugby fans expected to visit Australia for the World Cup in October could tip the balance in Qantas's favour. "You could have this very positive operational gearing effect in the first half," the analyst said.
"You could have this very positive operational gearing effect in the first half," said one analyst, who pointed to the inroads Qantas had made in slashing its labour and capital expenditure costs recently.
With Qantas embarking on a major restructuring drive to slash costs by $1 billion over three years, there are growing concerns its ageing fleet could be its next major - and possibly biggest - hurdle.
Although the airline is expected to take on its sixth and final Boeing 747-400 ER next month, along with another B737-800, the pressures on Qantas to replace its fleet are expected to represent a growing headache. The problem intensified when Qantas suspended the delivery of several Airbus A330-338s citing the impact of the Iraq war and SARS.
Shares in the airline fell 5¢ to a two-month low of $3.13 yesterday before closing at $3.15.
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Qantas recovery starts to lift off
July 23 2003
By Scott Rochfort
Sydney
With the worst of the severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemic now behind it, Qantas reported yesterday that international passenger numbers in May had fallen by almost one-fifth.
With analysts now locking in their consensus forecasts for the airline to report a full-year net profit of $345 million next month, Qantas said international passenger numbers for May were down 18.5 per cent compared with 12 months earlier, with domestic numbers up 0.5 per cent. Qantas carried 2.13 million passengers in May 2003, down 6.2 per cent on May 2002.
For the 11 months to the end of May, Qantas carried 26.75 million passengers, up 7 per cent on the previous period, with international passenger numbers down 2 per cent.
The managing director of the Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation, Peter Harbison, said despite the latest passenger figures, Qantas had been "steaming along" following the easing in the SARS crisis and recent rise in the Australian dollar. A big positive was that load factors had declined only marginally.
With the airline slashing its international services by 20 per cent during the height of the SARS crisis, Qantas said international yields were up 2.2 per cent in May. Domestic yields, however, fell 6 per cent.
With the international figures in line with Sydney Airport's figures for May (down 18.5 per cent), analysts said Qantas could fully recover from the impact of the Iraq war and SARS far quicker than the three to six months first predicted.
Sydney Airport reported an 11.6 per cent decline in international traffic in June, with preliminary data pointing to a 4 per cent decline so far this month.
"The Sydney data is pushing to a very sharp recovery. Sydney's figures will tip across to Qantas," one analyst said.
With the Sydney figures pointing to a full recovery in year-on-year passenger numbers by August, the 40,000 international rugby fans expected to visit Australia for the World Cup in October could tip the balance in Qantas's favour. "You could have this very positive operational gearing effect in the first half," the analyst said.
"You could have this very positive operational gearing effect in the first half," said one analyst, who pointed to the inroads Qantas had made in slashing its labour and capital expenditure costs recently.
With Qantas embarking on a major restructuring drive to slash costs by $1 billion over three years, there are growing concerns its ageing fleet could be its next major - and possibly biggest - hurdle.
Although the airline is expected to take on its sixth and final Boeing 747-400 ER next month, along with another B737-800, the pressures on Qantas to replace its fleet are expected to represent a growing headache. The problem intensified when Qantas suspended the delivery of several Airbus A330-338s citing the impact of the Iraq war and SARS.
Shares in the airline fell 5¢ to a two-month low of $3.13 yesterday before closing at $3.15.
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